Zach's analysis-best-chance-in-years

[quote="fordham96" post=296014]And let's be clear and not re-write history and assume Mullin was the only choice after Lavin. 1A was Mullin and 1B was Danny Hurley. Now Danny had not turned URI totally around yet 3 years ago. He was considered a comer but was not the hottest commodity.

But I have the text messages and emails from people who know that he was ready to jump at the SJU job if they offered. As it turns out Chris was the first choice and when he said yes that was it.[/quote]

If we are going to play that game, If they hired McKillop instead of Norm he would still be our coach and we would have made the tourney every other year or so. And some on here would be complaining about that!
 
[quote="fordham96" post=296019][quote="we are sju" post=296017][quote="fordham96" post=296011][quote="we are sju" post=296007][quote="austour" post=296004][quote="we are sju" post=295992]
Who is that guy?
Lavin? Nah two first round losses in 5 years and one NBA first round pick
Norm? Well he was a great guy I was repeatedly told but that doesn't fit the criteria you wanted.
Jarvis? Pretty close but everyone hated him
Fran? Again maybe but he was never going to stay around.
Mahoney?
So basically you want Louie back I guess.
People around here need to have more patience and lower their expectations.[/quote]

Valid points. But at least most of the guys (okay, 60%) who've failed to achieve the unrealistic goals of some before had some level of success at the job elsewhere before they were hired.[/quote]

Not to bash Lavin but was severely panned by fans and players alike while at UCLA and we hired him from TV where really no one was knocking down his door. Again outside Chris Mullin, Walter Berry, Mark Jackson, David Russell, Willie Glass or a clear successful upgrade I think he did just enough to get an extension.
Just saying I would not call grabbing a guy out of TV that long after his last job a success.
And I liked Lavin hire.

Question for you because I know you were against the hiring / firing at the time.
You think we would be in better shape at this point in time if Lavin was given an extension? Same? Worse?
I think we would have been maybe a little better first couple years but looking at a disaster by now.[/quote]

A little bit better? If he was a little bit better 2 years removed from his first 5 years than Mullin was his first 2 years Lavin would have been fired. Period. That is the point you are missing. He wouldn't have been given a 5 year run with mediocre years to begin with. He would have had to produce VERY QUICKLY to justify any extension.

And if he somehow survived those first 2 mediocre/bad years and got a 3rd year without an NCAA tourney bid he would have been gone after this past year anyway.

So either he got this thing rolling BETTER than he already had or he was toast after a few years. He wouldn't be at SJU with a record anywhere near Mullin's current record after 2 or 3 years. The standard would have been entirely different and rightfully so.[/quote]

Yes that was my point. After his first 2 seasons of theoretic extension I think we would have only been slightly better.
Then I think we would have hit rock bottom or he would have been fired by third or 4th year.
Everyone has bashed our coaches since Louie left. But what are we basing it on?
Yes I am more patient with Mullin because I had his poster on my wall but also because I doubt the next guy will be any better. And I happen to think we will be good this year so why bitch?[/quote]

No we would have been better by year 2. He would have had to change his staff and kick up his recruiting as a condition.. I am not convinced we would be near Villanova, which was ultimately the goal. But yeah he could go 6-12 in year 1, 10-8 in year 2 and 3 after his mythical extension. But I wouldn't have been satisfied.

I find your post interesting about how you think SJU would be good this year, you said when Ponds was still potentially staying in the draft you thought best case he comes back we go 9-9 and bubble, he stays in and we finish last. Both LJSA and I said that would not be acceptable.[/quote]

If no Heron, yes 9-9 or 10-8 and if we make tourney that is a good year.
 
[quote="we are sju" post=296020][quote="fordham96" post=296014]And let's be clear and not re-write history and assume Mullin was the only choice after Lavin. 1A was Mullin and 1B was Danny Hurley. Now Danny had not turned URI totally around yet 3 years ago. He was considered a comer but was not the hottest commodity.

But I have the text messages and emails from people who know that he was ready to jump at the SJU job if they offered. As it turns out Chris was the first choice and when he said yes that was it.[/quote]

If we are going to play that game, If they hired McKillop instead of Norm he would still be our coach and we would have made the tourney every other year or so. And some on here would be complaining about that![/quote]

No that is not the same, it is not even close. McKillop was never on the short list. The 2004 hire was Doherty or Norm with some interest in Tim Welsh. McKillop was never a serious candidate. Not analogous. Doherty and Norm were the only two people formerly interviewed for the job in 2004, to this day. And I love McKillop but not sure he would fit specifically the recruiting part.

If Chris Mullin said no they were turning their attention to Danny Hurley. That is fact. My only point is to point out this was not just a choice between Lavin and CM, they had other avenues. That is not to say they made the wrong choice just that CM did not have to be the ONLY choice.
 
[quote="fordham96" post=296022][quote="we are sju" post=296020][quote="fordham96" post=296014]And let's be clear and not re-write history and assume Mullin was the only choice after Lavin. 1A was Mullin and 1B was Danny Hurley. Now Danny had not turned URI totally around yet 3 years ago. He was considered a comer but was not the hottest commodity.

But I have the text messages and emails from people who know that he was ready to jump at the SJU job if they offered. As it turns out Chris was the first choice and when he said yes that was it.[/quote]

If we are going to play that game, If they hired McKillop instead of Norm he would still be our coach and we would have made the tourney every other year or so. And some on here would be complaining about that![/quote]

No that is not the same, it is not even close. McKillop was never on the short list. The 2004 hire was Doherty or Norm with some interest in Tim Welsh. McKillop was never a serious candidate. Not analogous. Doherty and Norm were the only two people formerly interviewed for the job in 2004, to this day. And I love McKillop but not sure he would fit specifically the recruiting part.

If Chris Mullin said no they were turning their attention to Danny Hurley. That is fact. My only point is to point out this was not just a choice between Lavin and CM, they had other avenues. That is not to say they made the wrong choice just that CM did not have to be the ONLY choice.[/quote]

SO then Ron Rutledge got killed on here because of Norm hiring all those years for no reason?

Lets see how Hurley does at Uconn.
But even if he turns that around I am not convinced he was ever coming here or if he did would stay here.
 
Mullin's Hood
‏@MullinsHood
Shamorie Ponds and Sedee Keita getting up some late night shots at Carnesecca tonight. #sjubb
 
Danny Hurley had success at uri, which led to a 6 year, $18 million deal at uconn, or roughly 50% more than Mullin's salary for a guy who thus far is a mid major coach.

Does anyone here think that a school whose 24 hour fund raising campaign raised $100k or so, when Villanova's same campaign raised $4 million, would have been able to keep Hurley from bolting to uconn had he come here first?

Presumably if Hurley achieves the kind of success say Calhoun had, his next deal will be more lucrative, beyond our reach.

For sju fans intent on playing this game, Hurley is simply the flavor of the week, served up after years of serving Calipari and the other Pitino protege from Florida via rvc, Billy Donovan.

Don't bring up the 2004 hiring process. The committee chair tried to rig the decision for Doh, and interviewed candidates on his own without consulting committee member, then served up Doh and an unacceptable loser on a plate to Harringtonfor the final decision. Only problem was, well you know.

Play that game and you'll never be happy, which is kind of the point.
 
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[quote="we are sju" post=296007][

Question for you because I know you were against the hiring / firing at the time.
You think we would be in better shape at this point in time if Lavin was given an extension? Same? Worse?
I think we would have been maybe a little better first couple years but looking at a disaster by now.[/quote]

I was not against the firing. I was against the hiring. The fact that they essentially happened simultaneously links them so only in that way was I against the firing. At least when Jarvis and Lavin were hired, you could look back at their history and say, well they got it done someway somehow as a college head coach before. Even if in Lavin's case it was quite a few years before. And yes we all heard the rumors, believe me I live here. However St Johns is never going to be fishing in the same HC pond as UCLA anyway so I found a way to make myself feel good about hiring a guy who went to the Sweet Sixteen 5 out of 6 years.

Now do I think Lavin teams would have outperformed the teams Mullin has put on the floor? Yes I do, for a few reasons. He's a better recruiter, he has a better understanding of how to how to construct a D1 staff and run a D1 program, and he has a track record of success and getting to the post season that players would find appealing. Mullin has none of those qualities. His HOF status is relatively meaningless (Mitch's is entirely). They both are the types to rest on their laurels a bit too much, and dare I say neither of them strike me as very smart, but at least Lavin knew what he was doing based on experience and strong mentors. I mean the guy had 3 20 win seasons in 5 years for STJ.

Now if on March 31, 2015 the announcement was that they had hired a Hurley brother, or Steve Prohm, or Shaka Smart or Mike White, or Rick Barnes or Ben Howland or some other qualified coach with a history of success that also took a new job in the spring of 2015 I would have been entirely behind the move. And yes, I do understand that many of those guys wouldn't even consider St Johns but I'm just trying to make a point. There had to be one or more qualified candidates out there. Then again I fell for Jarvis up front and you know how I felt about him by the end. And before someone says Matt Doherty has experience, well just fark you. ;)

The mediocrity bordering on failure of the first three seasons of Mullin's coaching career are not because Lavin left the pantry bare (maybe the first one, but not after that), it's because Mullin and staff mismanaged the rebuild due to a domino effect of bad hires (matt being the exception) and bad management (see Slice, Mitch). And on the hire front I don't feel like Chris has shown he has learned anything. We'll see about the management.

All that being said I'm all in on this year, if not the year's beyond yet. Matt has put together a talented roster, so let's now see if the staff can coach them up. I'm looking forward to dancing this year and having an enjoyable season.
 
And just to clarify the mentor comment was not meant as a shot at Lou. But to be fair the game had passed Lou by before he even retired so not sure how much he was bringing to the table 20 years after he coached his last game. Keady was only 5 years removed from Purdue, one of which was spent as an NBA assistant. Big difference.
 
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