Your prediction re: St. John's Win/ loss record is

[newsman13]

this team is loaded with talent and they'll be coached up. the early out of conference schedule is much softer than last year's. don't buy all that "we're all freshmen and sophs" stuff. only the mid majors have predominantly four year players.

there's no way we win fewer than 20. 25 is not out of the question.  

 

No way we win fewer than 20? We won 13 games last year...you really think we jump 7 wins in 1 year? Hope you are right, but I would never bet my money on winning at least 20. Look for them to be this year's USF and win something like 17 games as a solid, not great team. IMO we can't expect 20+ wins until next year.

 

The 1997-1998 Ohio State Buckeyes were 8-22. The following season they're 27-9 and in the Final Four (they beat us in the Elite Eight). The only player they added of significance was Scoonie Penn (Boban Savovic and Will Dudley was also added that particular season). I know that isn't the generally rule, but I see a similiar situation with our group. A young group that was hammered one season. Gain experience and add important pieces, to go along with valuable holdovers.

I'm still one who believes we only won 13 games was due to youth, and a lack of depth and size. Quite frankly, I think those problems have been fixed. We're returning 5 players (not guys who are exactly chop liver, either) who probably served themselves well due to the time they received last season. I think their time last season will pay off this season. 

 

Mindset. Something St. Johns fans still need to work on. Try this. Take away the names - no team names, no player names. We could be talking Michigan State. or UNC. Or Texas. Or Gonzaga. What are your reasonable expectatons for THIS team:

PG: Will have the consensus #52 player out of high school at PG (per RSCI), and Scout.Com's #1 defensive player. Backed by the returning 32 minute a game starter, team leader in assists.

SG: Will have the consensus #42 player in the country returning after being the #3 scoring freshman in D-1, and the #1 scoring freshman in Major Conference D-1, after playing 34 minutes a game as a frosh. Backed by one of the best perimeter shooting JC transfers in the country. Backed by a raw frosh, who's one of the most athletic 2 guards entering college ball.

SF: Will have the #35 consensus player in the country returning. after playing 30 minutes a game as a frosh. Backed by the consensus #73 ranked player in the country.

PF. Will have a 1st team JC All America, a Senior who's played for the Dominican National Team. Backed by the consensus #40 player in the country. Backed by a player being identified by multiple reputable sources as one of the biggest "sleepers" entering D-1 this year.

C. Will have the consensus #69 player in the country, agruabely the best shot blocker in high school basketball. Backed by a first team JC All American, a 30 minute a gme returning starter, who's the 2nd leading returning scorer, and leading returning rebounder.

This is one of the most experienced teams in any major conference - one that returns 5 players who started 19 or more games last year. Returns 4,664 of the 6,425 minutes played last year (73%). It returns 69% of its scoring (1467 of 2129 pts). Returns 58% of its rebounding (633 of 1097). Returns 72% of its assists (249 of 345). While adding 7 new players, including 3 consensus top 70 recruits, a JC all American, A pure shooter, an athletic scorer, and a bull of an athletic PF. Adding 6'9, 6'9, 6'8, 6'7, 6'6, 6'4 and 6'3. So it will have 6 total top 70 recruits, and 2 JC All Americans, and 4 excellent supporting players on scholarship.

The team gets back it's head coach - one has a record of getting his teams to the NCAA tourney 87.5% of the time, and reaching the Sweet 16 or better 71% of those times. They'll be coached by a 4 year NBA assistant, considered one of the top player development coaches in the pros. They'll be coached by a 13 year NBA veteren point guard. They'll be coached by veteren "assistant to the head coach" who is in the Hall of Fame, a 6 time National Coach Of the Year with over 800 career wins.

If you eliminate the mindset "this club can't be very good, they let ME in" - if you were to read that litany about ANY team - how could you NOT project minimum 20 wins? (or as I am, 40-0...till they lose one).... 

 

great post...as always!!

we have to throw away last year's 13 win season. we had six players and some walkons in the toughest basketball conference in the country. they had no one to practice against. it got so bad, one of the coaches blew out his ankle/achilles substituting for a walkon during practice. again, they gained invaluable experience in one of the toughest schedules in the country. i know it's early, but i predict sweet 16 at worst in march.

 

[Section9]

We finish the regular season 18-12, and win 2 in the BE, making us a borderline NCAA team but we don't make the cut because of our weak ooc sked and lack of success against the top 30, so it's NIT this year. 

 

[simplyred]

 Also important about last year is that the two guys who were supposed to provide leadership (Stith and Nuri) both transferred out. The remaining (very) young men had to figure things out on the fly. That turmoil, combined with the distraction of Coach's medical situation caused the win total to be even further below the talent level we had. This year, with experience, depth and stability, we should see a tremendous increase in wins. We played some close games last year that should be wins for us this year

Im predicting 21 regular season wins, 2 in the BET and a 1st round NCAA win.

 

[jerseyshorejohnny]

 Also important about last year is that the two guys who were supposed to provide leadership (Stith and Nuri) both transferred out. The remaining (very) young men had to figure things out on the fly. That turmoil, combined with the distraction of Coach's medical situation caused the win total to be even further below the talent level we had. This year, with experience, depth and stability, we should see a tremendous increase in wins. We played some close games last year that should be wins for us this year

Im predicting 21 regular season wins, 2 in the BET and a 1st round NCAA win.

 

I'll sign up for that right now !

 

[1and1sju]

 18-12

We'll be much improved, and Newsman is right about the recruits we have at every position; except you need to put things in comparison; Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Pitt, and even Villanova, all start top 100 talent at every position too.
And Marquette and Cinncinnatti have their share as well.

I think we improve as the season goes on and we're a bubble team. Maybe we get in with a strong Big East tournament, because I could see us gelling by february/march.

 

[crgreen]

 18-12

We'll be much improved, and Newsman is right about the recruits we have at every position; except you need to put things in comparison; Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Pitt, and even Villanova, all start top 100 talent at every position too.
And Marquette and Cinncinnatti have their share as well.

I think we improve as the season goes on and we're a bubble team. Maybe we get in with a strong Big East tournament, because I could see us gelling by february/march.

 

Just checked the RSCI rankings. For G'Town, the only guys from RSCI top 100 (over the last 5 classes) still on thieir roster are Smith Rivera, Porter, Hopkins, Lubik and Starks - two of them are outside the top 70. Louisville has 7. Marquette has 4, two outside the top 70. If I get time, I'll try to verify for the other schools you've listed....

 

[1and1sju]

 18-12

We'll be much improved, and Newsman is right about the recruits we have at every position; except you need to put things in comparison; Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Pitt, and even Villanova, all start top 100 talent at every position too.
And Marquette and Cinncinnatti have their share as well.

I think we improve as the season goes on and we're a bubble team. Maybe we get in with a strong Big East tournament, because I could see us gelling by february/march.

 

Just checked the RSCI rankings. For G'Town, the only guys from RSCI top 100 (over the last 5 classes) still on thieir roster are Smith Rivera, Porter, Hopkins, Lubik and Starks - two of them are outside the top 70. Louisville has 7. Marquette has 4, two outside the top 70. If I get time, I'll try to verify for the other schools you've listed....

 
G'town signed two wings in the last two classes; Jabril Trawick and Stephen Domingo, for some reason rivals didn't grade them at all - so they aren't on the RSCI list. Telep at ESPN had them both as top 100 players.

But the larger point is that we aren't the only team with talent in the conference. Now we're on a level playing field with the upper half of the conference. And maybe even a little ahead of some rivals, but we're not alone in recruiting this kind of talent.

CR, as a UCLA fan you of all people know that there are programs who chew up top 100 talent every single season. This is new for us, and it's fantastic. But it doesn't mean we're going to run roughshod over everyone. 

Edit: And it's entirely possible, likely even, that I overstated the number of top 100 recruits on some teams. A quick glance tells me I'm off with Cinncinnatti as well. But even UCONN, at the depths of their program, still have 4 top 100 players on their roster in Boatright, Calhoun, Daniels, and Napier.

 

[19854ever]

SJU will go 11-1 OOC and 7-8 in the BE Regular season therefore regular season record of 18-9

I predict a loss at College of Charleston and lose both games to Georgetown, marque winns will be ND, Uconn and
Marquette at home.

A trip to the NIT 

 

[LINY89]

 You guys are forgetting something...rankings of players don't necessarily mean they are worthy of that ranking once they play in the Big East. Guys like Hardy come out of nowhere, and some top recruits just never seem to get it. Just because a guy is ranked in the top 100 doesn't mean he can't get hurt or can't be bad or average. Yes the odds are way better they will produce if they are ranked, but like someone else just said, every good Big East team has top recruits i.e. Cuse, G'Town, Nova, Marquette, Cincy, etc. It's not like we are Iona in the MAAC where they are by far the most talented. We lost Harkless, and the only other real stud we had was Harrison offensively. The new players i.e Sampson, Obekpa, Sanchez, Marco, Felix, etc. will need a lot of time to adjust. If Harrison goes down for any extended period of time, we will be lucky to even be a .500 team.

I love SJ and I wish us the best, but I must keep a clear head. You can be a fan and also be realistic. Yes we have lots of cupcakes, but sometimes those are the ones who scare you the most...an unknown brand and the anxiety of potentially losing to them. We lost to Northeastern, Fordham, and almost one of the DII or DIII schools early last year. William and Mary gave us a run for our money before we pulled away. Detroit dominated us. We still haven't proven we can crush teams that we should crush. I highly doubt this team gets 20+ wins with so many freshman. What we will do though, is knock off say Cuse, L'Ville, or G'Town. We will definitely sneak up and beat some top teams, but we will make the NIT likely.

 

[crgreen]

 18-12

We'll be much improved, and Newsman is right about the recruits we have at every position; except you need to put things in comparison; Louisville, Syracuse, Georgetown, Pitt, and even Villanova, all start top 100 talent at every position too.
And Marquette and Cinncinnatti have their share as well.

I think we improve as the season goes on and we're a bubble team. Maybe we get in with a strong Big East tournament, because I could see us gelling by february/march.

 

Just checked the RSCI rankings. For G'Town, the only guys from RSCI top 100 (over the last 5 classes) still on thieir roster are Smith Rivera, Porter, Hopkins, Lubik and Starks - two of them are outside the top 70. Louisville has 7. Marquette has 4, two outside the top 70. If I get time, I'll try to verify for the other schools you've listed....

 
G'town signed two wings in the last two classes; Jabril Trawick and Stephen Domingo, for some reason rivals didn't grade them at all - so they aren't on the RSCI list. Telep at ESPN had them both as top 100 players.

But the larger point is that we aren't the only team with talent in the conference. Now we're on a level playing field with the upper half of the conference. And maybe even a little ahead of some rivals, but we're not alone in recruiting this kind of talent.

CR, as a UCLA fan you of all people know that there are programs who chew up top 100 talent every single season. This is new for us, and it's fantastic. But it doesn't mean we're going to run roughshod over everyone. 

Edit: And it's entirely possible, likely even, that I overstated the number of top 100 recruits on some teams. A quick glance tells me I'm off with Cinncinnatti as well. But even UCONN, at the depths of their program, still have 4 top 100 players on their roster in Boatright, Calhoun, Daniels, and Napier.

 

Yes, but St. Johns was 16-17 wins 3 of the last 4 seasons under Norm. THIS team has (I believe) vastly superior coaching AND vastly superior talent man for man all the way up and down the roster. To expect "Norm" results, as may posters are stating in this thread, is to me utterly ridiculous (barring catastrophe).

 

[Jnaw17]

 You guys are forgetting something...rankings of players don't necessarily mean they are worthy of that ranking once they play in the Big East. Guys like Hardy come out of nowhere, and some top recruits just never seem to get it. Just because a guy is ranked in the top 100 doesn't mean he can't get hurt or can't be bad or average. Yes the odds are way better they will produce if they are ranked, but like someone else just said, every good Big East team has top recruits i.e. Cuse, G'Town, Nova, Marquette, Cincy, etc. It's not like we are Iona in the MAAC where they are by far the most talented. We lost Harkless, and the only other real stud we had was Harrison offensively. The new players i.e Sampson, Obekpa, Sanchez, Marco, Felix, etc. will need a lot of time to adjust. If Harrison goes down for any extended period of time, we will be lucky to even be a .500 team.

I love SJ and I wish us the best, but I must keep a clear head. You can be a fan and also be realistic. Yes we have lots of cupcakes, but sometimes those are the ones who scare you the most...an unknown brand and the anxiety of potentially losing to them. We lost to Northeastern, Fordham, and almost one of the DII or DIII schools early last year. William and Mary gave us a run for our money before we pulled away. Detroit dominated us. We still haven't proven we can crush teams that we should crush. I highly doubt this team gets 20+ wins with so many freshman. What we will do though, is knock off say Cuse, L'Ville, or G'Town. We will definitely sneak up and beat some top teams, but we will make the NIT likely.

 

So, if we blow Detroit out in the first game, does that help convince you that this year's team is a lot better than last year's? Last year's team didn't even know how to line up for pre game warmups in their first exhibition game, so let's get real here. Without depth and any experience, every game was a challenge last year. If you want to work a few more numbers, how about the three losses we had in games we should have won ('Nova, A&M and Rutgers)? Get those games and last year's team was a .500 team...with 6 players? These guys will be good this year and win 20+ games... I do think that's being realistic.

 

[redmannorth]

Based upon the returning players and add Jakaar to offset Harkless we win 3 more games.
Add an excellent pg, serious shot blocker, all around player in Sanchez, an excellent outside shooter, and athletic depth in Belamou and Jones and I don't see why we cannot win another 4 games.  

 

[bk8664]

 i'm just hoping we don't have a deflating slip-up against detroit or charleston - with all of our players trying to figure out how to play along side each other on the court - we all know it's a possibility...

 

[Amaseinyourface]

 Detroit...... Win

@ College of Charleston..... Win

(away) Murray State/ Auburn ....Win

(away) TBA Tournament..... Win

Holy Cross .... WIn

Florida Gulf Coast.... Win

South Carolina..... Loss

NJIT.... Win

@ SanFrancisco .... Win

fordham.... Win

(Barclays Center) St. Francis.....Win

UNC Ashville..... Win

@ Villanova.....Loss

@ Cincinnati.....Win

(MSG) Rutgers..... Win

(MSG) Georgetown.....Loss

(MSG) Notre Dame...... Win

@ DePaul...... win

@ Rutgers....loss

(MSG) Seton Hall....win

(MSG) DePaul...win

@ Georgetown.....loss

(MSG) Yukon...... win

@ University of Syracuse.... Loss

@ Louisville...... Loss

USF...... Win

(MSG) Pitts.... Loss

@ Providence College...... Win

@ Notre Dame....... Win

(MSG) Marquette .....WIn


22-8

 

[LINY89]

 I just think many people forget that we still have not proven a thing. As of 11:10 PM 10/15/2012, we are a lower level Big East team that won 13 games last year. I need proof that we actually are a 20 win team. That proof is blowing out the Detroit's, Charleston's, and other cupcakes in our schedule. That didn't happen last year. That proof is beating legitimately good teams in the conference like Cuse, Marquette, Cincy (beyond a miracle tip in), G'Town, L'Ville, etc. I will start to talk 20 games when this team beats Detroit by 20+ and wins the Charleston Tourney or whatever it's called. It's hard for me to blindly trust this team to win 20 without any prior indication and just raw talent because everyone has talent.

 

[MCNPA]

 I just think many people forget that we still have not proven a thing. As of 11:10 PM 10/15/2012, we are a lower level Big East team that won 13 games last year. I need proof that we actually are a 20 win team. That proof is blowing out the Detroit's, Charleston's, and other cupcakes in our schedule. That didn't happen last year. That proof is beating legitimately good teams in the conference like Cuse, Marquette, Cincy (beyond a miracle tip in), G'Town, L'Ville, etc. I will start to talk 20 games when this team beats Detroit by 20+ and wins the Charleston Tourney or whatever it's called. It's hard for me to blindly trust this team to win 20 without any prior indication and just raw talent because everyone has talent.

 

Actually, you have it totally backwards. Early season games, while they can be traps, are extremely poor indicators of how good a team is come March. SJU is likely to struggle earlier in the season rather than later because of youth. Destroying cupcakes in the first month of play means almost nothing. Uconn's last national championship team was not all that good early in the season. Good teams get exponentially better as the season progresses.

We might not win the Charleson Tourney, especially with an extremely good Baylor team there. It doesn't mean we won't be excellent and make a good run in the NCAA's. I stil have little doubt we'll win over 20 games. We are deep and talented.

 

[LINY89]

 If we are really as great a team as you say, we should handle cupcakes just like Kentucky, Louisville, G'Town, Cuse, etc. Yes they can be traps, but if we have as much talent as you say, it should be a blowout of every mid major save for maybe 1 or 2 traps. I understand how teams play early is not a good indicator of NCAA potential, but it IS a good indicator of talent levels. I remember watching Kentucky beat Marist last year 101-51. Those are the kinds of routs you expect from great teams. If we are a 20 win team talent wise, it shouldn't even be close. We are still very inexperienced and we lost a 1st round NBA draft pick which has to have some negative impact.

While I'd love to jump in on the fun and act like I think we are a 20+ win team, I just don't feel it. Again, I always remember how the Jets, Mets, and Knicks always seem to have great talent but no results. That happens in college basketball too. Next year is the true test IMO. Harrison will be a JR (if he stays), Hooper will be there, Sampson, Branch, Obekpa, etc. will have experience, etc. plus the new recruits we get. We still have no idea what we have in key players like Sampson, Branch, Obekpa, Sanchez, Marco, etc.

 

[sirvoo]

 If we are really as great a team as you say, we should handle cupcakes just like Kentucky, Louisville, G'Town, Cuse, etc. Yes they can be traps, but if we have as much talent as you say, it should be a blowout of every mid major save for maybe 1 or 2 traps. I understand how teams play early is not a good indicator of NCAA potential, but it IS a good indicator of talent levels. I remember watching Kentucky beat Marist last year 101-51. Those are the kinds of routs you expect from great teams. If we are a 20 win team talent wise, it shouldn't even be close. We are still very inexperienced and we lost a 1st round NBA draft pick which has to have some negative impact.

While I'd love to jump in on the fun and act like I think we are a 20+ win team, I just don't feel it. Again, I always remember how the Jets, Mets, and Knicks always seem to have great talent but no results. That happens in college basketball too. Next year is the true test IMO. Harrison will be a JR (if he stays), Hooper will be there, Sampson, Branch, Obekpa, etc. will have experience, etc. plus the new recruits we get. We still have no idea what we have in key players like Sampson, Branch, Obekpa, Sanchez, Marco, etc.

 

I think we will win 20 games like many here do but the "great" adjective you use to describe a 20 win prediction for a team is inaccurate. 20 win teams are not great teams they are good maybe but definitely not great. It doesn't have to be black and white always, some are saying we are good enough to be a top 68 team in D1 and you are saying we aren't t that level yet. Neither side of this argument is far fetched, but you can't throw around great to describe what the optimists are saying. We will be inconsistent at times but if we can make up for the growing pains in February where it matters most, we should be able to finish in the top 8 of the BE.

 

[LINY89]

 Top 68? From some of the posts here it seems like many people expect us to be ranked this year. That means top 25, not 68. I think we are a top 40 team but probably not top 25 or top 8 Big East. Cuse, G'Town, L'Ville, UConn, Nova, Cincy, Marquette, WVU, Pitt, ND, etc. will all very likely be better than us. Not saying we don't have the talent, but other teams like Nova, L'Ville, UConn, Marquette, Cincy, Cuse, G'Town, etc. at least have proof that they can be a top 15-20 team. We regard 2 years ago as a hugely successful year in which we didn't even get out of the first round vs. Gonzaga. Until we actually win consistently with this young group and prove we can play with the top half of the Big East and beat a decent amount, I will remain hopeful but skeptical.

 

[crgreen]

 Top 68? From some of the posts here it seems like many people expect us to be ranked this year. That means top 25, not 68. I think we are a top 40 team but probably not top 25 or top 8 Big East. Cuse, G'Town, L'Ville, UConn, Nova, Cincy, Marquette, WVU, Pitt, ND, etc. will all very likely be better than us. Not saying we don't have the talent, but other teams like Nova, L'Ville, UConn, Marquette, Cincy, Cuse, G'Town, etc. at least have proof that they can be a top 15-20 team. We regard 2 years ago as a hugely successful year in which we didn't even get out of the first round vs. Gonzaga. Until we actually win consistently with this young group and prove we can play with the top half of the Big East and beat a decent amount, I will remain hopeful but skeptical.

 

Senior DJ Kennedy, who'd become our first NBA player in a decade, tore his ACL in the final regular season game and couldn't play in the dance. Hence I always qualify my predictions with "barring catastrophe" - because Lavin teams DO have their share of those - they make his career NCAA tourney record even MORE remarkable - 1997 Future NBA center Jelani McCoy cracks his sternum in the Sweet 16, team goes out in the Elite 8. 1998, future NBA All Star Baron Davis tears his ACL in the round of 32, team goes out in the sweet 16. !999, Future NBA center Dan Gadzuring breaks his leg two games before the end of the season, Baron Davis suffers a turf toe, and Earl Watson has a partially separated shoulder in the last game of the season and UCLA loses in the first round by 2 pounts. 2000, Future 13 year NBA PG Earl Watson has arguabely the greatest NCAA tourney game ever by a PG, (17pts 16 assists) vs #3 ranked Maryland, but is knocked into the basket stancion on the final play before he was subbed out, and fractures his eye socket - Bruins lose the next game in the Sweet 16. 2001 - no major injury - they simply by luck of the draw get eventual champ Duke in the Sweet 16 (Jwill, Boozer, Battier, Duhon, Dunleavy) and lose a close game (wiht the refs swallowing their whistle the last 10 minutes of the game after JWill got called for his 4th foul). 2002 UCLA knocks off #2 seed Cincy in the round of 32, but team captain Rico Hines fractures his knee in the game, and they lose in the Sweet 16.

So for me, it's always "barring catastrophe"..and REALLY bad matchups