The Coronavirus

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otis

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I am interested in soliciting your thoughts regarding the Coronavirus.

How serious do you believe it is or will become. Are you taking any precautions beyond washing your hands more ofter ?

Thanks.

NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT TURN THIS THREAD INTO A POLITICAL DEBATE. OR DISCUSSION.
 
[quote="otis" post=378826]I am interested in soliciting your thoughts regarding the Coronavirus.

How serious do you believe it is or will become. Are you taking any precautions beyond washing your hands more ofter ?

Thanks.

NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT TURN THIS THREAD INTO A POLITICAL DEBATE. OR DISCUSSION.[/quote]

My neighborhood is a ghost town because of it, and parents at my daughter's school are spreading rumors that entire classes are infected. Kids and other parents/grandparents are falling victim to mob mentality. So my experience is that no one in my neighborhood has been officially classified as having it, but people are monsters.
 
The fatality rate seems to be 2% and while there is no vaccine as yet I would worry more about the flu for anyone over the age of 55. There are very few cases in the western hemisphere so I am not worried as of now. People are gullible and vulnerable with news like this possible pandemic to the point that people are buying less Corona beer and wearing face masks that only help if an infected person sneezes in your face. Just continue to keep hygienic habits and you have a 99% chance of not being infected.
On the other hand stay away from Chinese whooas from Wuhan and drink plenty of Corona beer.
 
While the reported fatality rate is about 2.3%, it is likely much less. There are reports of people testing positive for the virus with little or no symptoms. To me, that means there are undiagnosed cases out there that, if included, would result in a lower fatality rate. All that said, most statistics are coming from the Chinese Government making it fair to question the accuracy.

I think the virus will spread in the U.S. causing fatalities, perhaps at a rate comparable to influenza. Below is an excerpt from a MarketWatch article including more detail related to fatalities.


The sample’s overall case-fatality rate was 2.3%, higher than World Health Organization official 0.7% rate. No deaths occurred in those aged 9 years and younger, but cases in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8% fatality rate and those aged 80 years and older had a fatality rate of 14.8%.

No deaths were reported among mild and severe cases. The fatality rate was 49% among critical cases, and elevated among those with preexisting conditions: 10.5% for people with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer.

Link: [URL]https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-fatality-rates-vary-wildly-depending-on-age-gender-and-medical-history-some-patients-fare-much-worse-than-others-2020-02-26[/URL]]MarketWatch Article[/url]
 
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[quote="Class of 72" post=378938]The fatality rate seems to be 2% and while there is no vaccine as yet I would worry more about the flu for anyone over the age of 55. There are very few cases in the western hemisphere so I am not worried as of now. People are gullible and vulnerable with news like this possible pandemic to the point that people are buying less Corona beer and wearing face masks that only help if an infected person sneezes in your face. Just continue to keep hygienic habits and you have a 99% chance of not being infected.
On the other hand stay away from Chinese whooas from Wuhan and drink plenty of Corona beer.[/quote]

I'm not sure how anyone can say that people over 55 should be more concerned with the flu. I'm no doctor, but just based on the math, that seems incredibly irresponsible.

Sure, children and older people are most at risk with ANY virus but the fatality rate for the flu is 0.001. The fatality rate for the Coronvirus seems to be between 0.02 and 0.03. That means the flu kills 1 in 1,000 people that contract it and the Coronavirus kills 1 in 40 people.

More numbers: There are roughly 300m people in this country 2.5% of that population is 750,000 deaths. World wide that would be a much as 200,000,000 deaths if this thing becomes a pandemic and since there is no vaccine, its going to be tough to keep it from spreading.

Candidly, I'm not sure this topic is a good idea. I'd hate to think that people are basing important decisions about this issue on internet rumours on a basketball chatboard.
 
Literally just left an infectious disease specialist half hour ago. He’s very comcerned and just convinced me to have a buddy cancel his trip to northern Italy in may
 
[quote="SJUFAN2" post=378948][quote="Class of 72" post=378938]The fatality rate seems to be 2% and while there is no vaccine as yet I would worry more about the flu for anyone over the age of 55. There are very few cases in the western hemisphere so I am not worried as of now. People are gullible and vulnerable with news like this possible pandemic to the point that people are buying less Corona beer and wearing face masks that only help if an infected person sneezes in your face. Just continue to keep hygienic habits and you have a 99% chance of not being infected.
On the other hand stay away from Chinese whooas from Wuhan and drink plenty of Corona beer.[/quote]

I'm not sure how anyone can say that people over 55 should be more concerned with the flu. I'm no doctor, but just based on the math, that seems incredibly irresponsible.

Sure, children and older people are most at risk with ANY virus but the fatality rate for the flu is 0.001. The fatality rate for the Coronvirus seems to be between 0.02 and 0.03. That means the flu kills 1 in 1,000 people that contract it and the Coronavirus kills 1 in 40 people.

More numbers: There are roughly 300m people in this country 2.5% of that population is 750,000 deaths. World wide that would be a much as 200,000,000 deaths if this thing becomes a pandemic and since there is no vaccine, its going to be tough to keep it from spreading.

Candidly, I'm not sure this topic is a good idea. I'd hate to think that people are basing important decisions about this issue on internet rumours on a basketball chatboard.[/quote]

Your doomsday scenario is an example of irresponsible exaggeration.
First of all the flu affects over 28 MILLION people in America every year while there are 30 reported cases of the CV in Amerca. Ergo there can be over 28 million people able to transmit the virus versus 30, or 300 or even 3000. THAT is why you should be more concerned about the flu at PRESENT. Especially if you are one of the millions who fail to get inoculated against the virus. Your extrapolation that every single American could get infected is also preposterous since by the time that could even approach a wild reality the vaccine would have been long developed but like the flu vac there will be people who refuse or are afraid of being inoculated.
The greatest impact of the Corona virus at present is the economic impact on world supply and demand and the international trade markets since China is the world's biggest exporter of goods.
 
[quote="Class of 72" post=378996][quote="SJUFAN2" post=378948][quote="Class of 72" post=378938]The fatality rate seems to be 2% and while there is no vaccine as yet I would worry more about the flu for anyone over the age of 55. There are very few cases in the western hemisphere so I am not worried as of now. People are gullible and vulnerable with news like this possible pandemic to the point that people are buying less Corona beer and wearing face masks that only help if an infected person sneezes in your face. Just continue to keep hygienic habits and you have a 99% chance of not being infected.
On the other hand stay away from Chinese whooas from Wuhan and drink plenty of Corona beer.[/quote]

I'm not sure how anyone can say that people over 55 should be more concerned with the flu. I'm no doctor, but just based on the math, that seems incredibly irresponsible.

Sure, children and older people are most at risk with ANY virus but the fatality rate for the flu is 0.001. The fatality rate for the Coronvirus seems to be between 0.02 and 0.03. That means the flu kills 1 in 1,000 people that contract it and the Coronavirus kills 1 in 40 people.

More numbers: There are roughly 300m people in this country 2.5% of that population is 750,000 deaths. World wide that would be a much as 200,000,000 deaths if this thing becomes a pandemic and since there is no vaccine, its going to be tough to keep it from spreading.

Candidly, I'm not sure this topic is a good idea. I'd hate to think that people are basing important decisions about this issue on internet rumours on a basketball chatboard.[/quote]

Your doomsday scenario is an example of irresponsible exaggeration.
First of all the flu affects over 28 MILLION people in America every year while there are 30 reported cases of the CV in Amerca. Ergo there can be over 28 million people able to transmit the virus versus 30, or 300 or even 3000. THAT is why you should be more concerned about the flu at PRESENT. Especially if you are one of the millions who fail to get inoculated against the virus. Your extrapolation that every single American could get infected is also preposterous since by the time that could even approach a wild reality the vaccine would have been long developed but like the flu vac there will be people who refuse or are afraid of being inoculated.
The greatest impact of the Corona virus at present is the economic impact on world supply and demand and the international trade markets since China is the world's biggest exporter of goods.[/quote]

You suggested that people over the age of 55 should be more concerned with a virus that is 25 times LESS likely to kill you if you get it, than the one we know next to nothing about at this moment... and I'm "irresponsible" ?!?!

Do some research on the Spanish Flu Pandemic that followed the WWI. The planets population back then was 1.5B. Its now close to 8B. 20-50M dead from that pandemic was 2-3% of the world population at that time. We are about as prepared for this virus/pandemic as they were for that one. So yes, be concerned. I'm not suggesting you stock up your bomb shelter and unplug from the rest of humanity, but we can manage the flu. We don't know what we don't know about this virus yet. Saying the flu is more dangerous to any segment of the population is contrary to the data on hand.

Might as well be an anti-vaxxer at that point.
 
% wise redstormitis might have higher mortality ratio especially with out older fans
 
from the doctors that I have heard/read, the best prevention is hand washing in a thorough manner. They indicated that most folks do not adequately wash hands as the miss thumbs, wrists and between fingers. As to how long to wash, one said (I am not kidding) as long as it takes to sing Happy Birthday. Also keep an alcohol based hand cleanser handy if you can't wash the hands. Also to be careful of folks sneezing and coughing. Be careful of subways and planes--someone I know is renting a car to come home from Florida.
The coronavirus vaccine is nearly ready as soon as they can get the slice of lime to fit in the syringe. ;). Stay safe evreryone

PS--hand shakes can readily transmit this or any other virus si fist bumping has been suggested if you must make "contact".
 
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As a medical practitioner, I’ll say that it’s waaay too early to tell. They don’t know enough about the virus incubation, spread etc. hard to extrapolate any data when there isn’t much and getting anything reliable from China is a pipe dream. It is concerning though for sure, and has the potential to cause big problems. Overreacting though is not worth it because seemingly can’t prevent spread of this thing unless you know how it’s being transmitted. It seems it’s being transmitted by people without any symptoms which is certainly a concern as well. At this point a wait and see approach is most prudent. Media outlets aren’t going to help anybody sleep better though as their job is to sensationalize.
 
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[quote="MCNPA" post=379092]As a medical practitioner, I’ll say that it’s waaay too early to tell. They don’t know enough about the virus incubation, spread etc. hard to extrapolate any data when there isn’t much and getting anything reliable from China is a pipe dream. It is concerning though for sure, and has the potential to cause big problems. Overreacting though is not worth it because seemingly can’t prevent spread of this thing unless you know how it’s being transmitted. It seems it’s being transmitted by people without any symptoms which is certainly a concern as well. At this point a wait and see app read is most prudent. Media outlets aren’t going to help anybody sleep better though as their job is to sensationalize.[/quote]

Media and social media certainly dont help. They need clicks and eyeballs.

Totally different subject but the tv news completely sensationalizes weather. Makes every storm seem like doomsday

Many years ago I stopped listening to them for snow and basically just text our own weathermannyc and he tells me if I'm driving to work the next day. I dont think he's ever been wrong whereas the tv news has been wrong like 90% of the time as far as storms and severity
 
[quote="BrooklynRed" post=379091]from the doctors that I have heard/read, the best prevention is hand washing in a thorough manner. They indicated that most folks do not adequately wash hands as the miss thumbs, wrists and between fingers. As to how long to wash, one said (I am not kidding) as long as it takes to sing Happy Birthday. Also keep an alcohol based hand cleanser handy if you can't wash the hands. Also to be careful of folks sneezing and coughing. Be careful of subways and planes--someone I know is renting a car to come home from Florida.
The coronavirus vaccine is nearly ready as soon as they can get the slice of lime to fit in the syringe. ;). Stay safe evreryone

PS--hand shakes can readily transmit this or any other virus si fist bumping has been suggested if you must make "contact".[/quote]
How about we borrow from the Japanese and bow to each other. :) Think I'll try it and see if it catches on. I'll let you guys know. :lol:
 
[quote="mjmaherjr" post=379093][quote="MCNPA" post=379092]As a medical practitioner, I’ll say that it’s waaay too early to tell. They don’t know enough about the virus incubation, spread etc. hard to extrapolate any data when there isn’t much and getting anything reliable from China is a pipe dream. It is concerning though for sure, and has the potential to cause big problems. Overreacting though is not worth it because seemingly can’t prevent spread of this thing unless you know how it’s being transmitted. It seems it’s being transmitted by people without any symptoms which is certainly a concern as well. At this point a wait and see app read is most prudent. Media outlets aren’t going to help anybody sleep better though as their job is to sensationalize.[/quote]

Media and social media certainly dont help. They need clicks and eyeballs.

Totally different subject but the tv news completely sensationalizes weather. Makes every storm seem like doomsday

Many years ago I stopped listening to them for snow and basically just text our own weathermannyc and he tells me if I'm driving to work the next day. I dont think he's ever been wrong whereas the tv news has been wrong like 90% of the time as far as storms and severity[/quote]
Much like St. John's fans prognosticating the beat downs the Red Storm is about to administer. :eek:hmy:
 
[quote="bamafan" post=379098][quote="BrooklynRed" post=379091]from the doctors that I have heard/read, the best prevention is hand washing in a thorough manner. They indicated that most folks do not adequately wash hands as the miss thumbs, wrists and between fingers. As to how long to wash, one said (I am not kidding) as long as it takes to sing Happy Birthday. Also keep an alcohol based hand cleanser handy if you can't wash the hands. Also to be careful of folks sneezing and coughing. Be careful of subways and planes--someone I know is renting a car to come home from Florida.
The coronavirus vaccine is nearly ready as soon as they can get the slice of lime to fit in the syringe. ;). Stay safe evreryone

PS--hand shakes can readily transmit this or any other virus si fist bumping has been suggested if you must make "contact".[/quote]
How about we borrow from the Japanese and bow to each other. :) Think I'll try it and see if it catches on. I'll let you guys know. :lol:[/quote]

I like that idea!
BTW, the CV is hitting Italy hard and the government has ordered all Italians to stop kissing on both cheeks when greeting.
 
I’ve gotten a series of emails from St. John’s as they continue to update students on the situation. It sounds like shutting down the university is a possibility at this point depending on how this progresses.

Cuomo declaring state of emergency certainly worried some people. My dad works at JPMorgan and they are making some employees work from home for the next 2 weeks.

I wasn’t worried about CoronaV, I feel like the issue is being a little exaggerated, but I talked to my dad today and he sounded a lot more worried than I thought he would be.

St. John’s was on spring break, I’m going back to New York tomorrow via Amtrak train and then taking the subway to queens. Absolutely dreading the commute.
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=380491]I’ve gotten a series of emails from St. John’s as they continue to update students on the situation. It sounds like shutting down the university is a possibility at this point depending on how this progresses.

Cuomo declaring state of emergency certainly worried some people. My dad works at JPMorgan and they are making some employees work from home for the next 2 weeks.

I wasn’t worried about CoronaV, I feel like the issue is being a little exaggerated, but I talked to my dad today and he sounded a lot more worried than I thought he would be.

St. John’s was on spring break, I’m going back to New York tomorrow via Amtrak train and then taking the subway to queens. Absolutely dreading the commute.[/quote] a lot o companies mine includes using social distancing now. All non essential meetings banned if you are sick with cold stay home and a whole bunch of other new rules. I’m fine with that. When 1 person gets a cold in the office the whole office ends up with it
 
My guess is the virus is already widespread well beyond the reported numbers. Remember, 80% of people who contract it do not need medical attention. The U.S. was caught off guard and we are well behind other countries in the ability to test (shortage of testing kits). Once we are done playing catch-up, the numbers will explode and the mortality rate will decrease. I am not down playing the threat, just noting that the virus is likely already ubiquitous.
 
Over cautious reactions to this virus.
24-Hour news cycle and cable news furling the fears.
 
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