Selection Sunday

The Metrics they use to selct teams are usually convoluted and are applied in an arbitrary and subjective manner. In most years we would be out, but the bubble teams are particlarly weak this year and we very well might sneak in to the last four. I personally have no love for the play-in game and don't consider that the real tournament starts until the round of 64 begins on Thursday. That said there is no team that we would match up with in a play-in game that I would fear if we play our best (something that has been few and far between recently). If we win and get into the round of 64 then I will be much more excited.

In the end hopefully we aren't kept out by the NET metric. Here is the current NET rankings (see link below). There are a whole bunch of teams from the thirties on down to us at 73 that could knock us out of the last four. It seems like the consensus of opinion is that we will make it, but I have no confidence about any of it because it is so subjective. It would have been much better if we had taken care of this on the court and finished the season strong. Unfortunately that ship has sailed.

Oh well, here is hoping for the best!

[URL]https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings[/URL]
 
I think it's a total crapshoot for us in two respects: going by the various bracketologists we could be in Dayton or out, with a lean towards being in; however this is first year using NET and no one knows how much weight the committee will give it.
I still think the non-competitive showing in our last game could cost us a bid. I'll be extremely happy if we get in, but won't feel we've been abused by the Committee is we don't.
 
[quote="NCJohnnie" post=331474]I think it's a total crapshoot for us in two respects: going by the various bracketologists we could be in Dayton or out, with a lean towards being in; however this is first year using NET and no one knows how much weight the committee will give it.
I still think the non-competitive showing in our last game could cost us a bid. I'll be extremely happy if we get in, but won't feel we've been abused by the Committee is we don't.[/quote]

Eye test aside, that last game tanked our NET by 8-10 spots in a single day. Home 10+ point losses like that really killed us. The metric is flawed as we shouldn't drop that much for losing to a Q1 team at home, but it is what it is.
 
We have a bad NET, but we also have 5 Quad 1 wins, which I believe is more than any of the teams who could knock us out. And really, we have 6 Quad 1 wins if you count the first Hall game. If the committee truly disregards how a team finishes off, we should be Dayton at least. But if they take our pathetic final stretch into consideration, we are toast.
 
[quote="OLV72" post=331480]Any friends on the committee?[/quote]

Cragg's former boss

Kevin White, director of athletics, Duke University
 
Team Record against NCAA teams ( record against bubble teams) Quad 1 record (Quad 1+2) ((bad losses))

UCF 2-2 (1-1) 2-5 8-7 ((1Q3))
Florida 2-10 (1-2) 4-12 8-13 ((2Q3))
NC St 1-9 (3-0) 3-9 8-9 ((2Q3'))
VCU 1-1 (2-1) 2-2 5-4 ((3Q3))
Clemson 1-7 (1-3) 1-10 7-13
Ole Miss 3-6 (1-1) 4-10 7-12
Oklahoma 5-10 (4-3) 4-10 10-12 ((1Q3))
Texas 5-7 (2-5) 5-10 9-15 ((1Q3))
Baylor 5-6 (4-3) 4-9 12-10 ((1Q3, 2Q4))
Furman 2-3 (1-2) 1-5 4-6 ((1Q3))
Syracuse 3-8 (2-2) 3-9 6-11 ((2Q3))
Iowa 3-7 (3-2) 4-10 11-10 ((1Q3))
Washington 1-5 (1-2) 2-4 10-7 ((1Q3))
Memphis 1-7 (3-2) 2-9 4-12 ((1Q3))
Belmont 1-2 (2-0) 2-2 5-3 ((2Q3))
Lipscomb 1-3 (1-1) 2-3 4-6 ((1Q3))
TCU 2-7 (4-4) 3-9 9-13
Creighton 1-6 (1-4) 3-10 9-14
Indiana 5-6 (0-5) 6-9 8-15
Ohio St 1-9 (5-2) 4-10 9-13 ((1Q3))
Temple 1-3 (1-2) 2-6 8-8 ((1Q3))
Alabama 4-8 (2-1) 3-10 10-13 ((2Q3))
NCGreensboro 0-5 (2-1) 2-6 4-6
Minnesota 3-8 (3-1) 5-10 12-12 ((1Q3))
Arizona St 3-3 (1-0) 3-3 11-6((2Q3, 2Q4))
Xavier 2-8 (5-2) 4-9 9-13 ((2Q3))
St.John's 4-4 (4-3) 5-7 10-10 ((2Q3))
Georgetown 4-4 (2-5) 5-6 11-11 ((2Q3))


Of this list...15 get in with 13 left out. trying to be objective here...no way we should be out. I don't even think we should have to go to Dayton. What so you think?
 
[quote="RedStormNC" post=331481][quote="OLV72" post=331480]Any friends on the committee?[/quote]

Cragg's former boss

Kevin White, director of athletics, Duke University[/quote]


That's the ticket
 
They don’t deserve to get in if you use the eye test. Disinterested, losing by large amounts, I think they go with a mid
Major
 
[quote="weathermannyc" post=331482]Team Record against NCAA teams ( record against bubble teams) Quad 1 record (Quad 1+2) ((bad losses))

UCF 2-2 (1-1) 2-5 8-7 ((1Q3))
Florida 2-10 (1-2) 4-12 8-13 ((2Q3))
NC St 1-9 (3-0) 3-9 8-9 ((2Q3'))
VCU 1-1 (2-1) 2-2 5-4 ((3Q3))
Clemson 1-7 (1-3) 1-10 7-13
Ole Miss 3-6 (1-1) 4-10 7-12
Oklahoma 5-10 (4-3) 4-10 10-12 ((1Q3))
Texas 5-7 (2-5) 5-10 9-15 ((1Q3))
Baylor 5-6 (4-3) 4-9 12-10 ((1Q3, 2Q4))
Furman 2-3 (1-2) 1-5 4-6 ((1Q3))
Syracuse 3-8 (2-2) 3-9 6-11 ((2Q3))
Iowa 3-7 (3-2) 4-10 11-10 ((1Q3))
Washington 1-5 (1-2) 2-4 10-7 ((1Q3))
Memphis 1-7 (3-2) 2-9 4-12 ((1Q3))
Belmont 1-2 (2-0) 2-2 5-3 ((2Q3))
Lipscomb 1-3 (1-1) 2-3 4-6 ((1Q3))
TCU 2-7 (4-4) 3-9 9-13
Creighton 1-6 (1-4) 3-10 9-14
Indiana 5-6 (0-5) 6-9 8-15
Ohio St 1-9 (5-2) 4-10 9-13 ((1Q3))
Temple 1-3 (1-2) 2-6 8-8 ((1Q3))
Alabama 4-8 (2-1) 3-10 10-13 ((2Q3))
NCGreensboro 0-5 (2-1) 2-6 4-6
Minnesota 3-8 (3-1) 5-10 12-12 ((1Q3))
Arizona St 3-3 (1-0) 3-3 11-6((2Q3, 2Q4))
Xavier 2-8 (5-2) 4-9 9-13 ((2Q3))
St.John's 4-4 (4-3) 5-7 10-10 ((2Q3))
Georgetown 4-4 (2-5) 5-6 11-11 ((2Q3))


Of this list...15 get in with 13 left out. trying to be objective here...no way we should be out. I don't even think we should have to go to Dayton. What so you think?[/quote]


I'm serious here. Those who know me know that I have been critical of a lot of things this year. But, if we don't get screwed by refs at Seton Hall and our numbers jump to 5-3 (4-3) 6-6 11-9 as listed above...is there even a shred of doubt? Could you find even 5 resumes on the list that could be argued as better? if not, then there is no way we should be left out and probably shouldn't even have to go to Dayton. Notice I left out record, conference record, SOS, NC SOS. It became all about the things that matter most: how did you do against teams in the tournament, how did you do against other bubble teams, how did you do in Quad 1 games, how did you do in Quad 1+2 games. All the talk about weak schedule but 12 Quad1 games and 20 quad 1+2 games do not stand out as weak. Just my two cents...
 
[quote="weathermannyc" post=331482]Team Record against NCAA teams ( record against bubble teams) Quad 1 record (Quad 1+2) ((bad losses))

UCF 2-2 (1-1) 2-5 8-7 ((1Q3))
Florida 2-10 (1-2) 4-12 8-13 ((2Q3))
NC St 1-9 (3-0) 3-9 8-9 ((2Q3'))
VCU 1-1 (2-1) 2-2 5-4 ((3Q3))
Clemson 1-7 (1-3) 1-10 7-13
Ole Miss 3-6 (1-1) 4-10 7-12
Oklahoma 5-10 (4-3) 4-10 10-12 ((1Q3))
Texas 5-7 (2-5) 5-10 9-15 ((1Q3))
Baylor 5-6 (4-3) 4-9 12-10 ((1Q3, 2Q4))
Furman 2-3 (1-2) 1-5 4-6 ((1Q3))
Syracuse 3-8 (2-2) 3-9 6-11 ((2Q3))
Iowa 3-7 (3-2) 4-10 11-10 ((1Q3))
Washington 1-5 (1-2) 2-4 10-7 ((1Q3))
Memphis 1-7 (3-2) 2-9 4-12 ((1Q3))
Belmont 1-2 (2-0) 2-2 5-3 ((2Q3))
Lipscomb 1-3 (1-1) 2-3 4-6 ((1Q3))
TCU 2-7 (4-4) 3-9 9-13
Creighton 1-6 (1-4) 3-10 9-14
Indiana 5-6 (0-5) 6-9 8-15
Ohio St 1-9 (5-2) 4-10 9-13 ((1Q3))
Temple 1-3 (1-2) 2-6 8-8 ((1Q3))
Alabama 4-8 (2-1) 3-10 10-13 ((2Q3))
NCGreensboro 0-5 (2-1) 2-6 4-6
Minnesota 3-8 (3-1) 5-10 12-12 ((1Q3))
Arizona St 3-3 (1-0) 3-3 11-6((2Q3, 2Q4))
Xavier 2-8 (5-2) 4-9 9-13 ((2Q3))
St.John's 4-4 (4-3) 5-7 10-10 ((2Q3))
Georgetown 4-4 (2-5) 5-6 11-11 ((2Q3))


Of this list...15 get in with 13 left out. trying to be objective here...no way we should be out. I don't even think we should have to go to Dayton. What so you think?[/quote]

Because I’m a homer I’d also point out that we have more overall wins than a lot of that group and our two quad 3 loses happens with ponds and heron out respectively.
 
[quote="Manhattan1" post=331485]They don’t deserve to get in if you use the eye test. Disinterested, losing by large amounts, I think they go with a mid
Major[/quote]


To be fair I’ve watched a good amount of college b-ball these last couple days. We may have looked bad in that Marquette game but god damn Arizona St, Washington, NC St, Temple... all those teams stink
 
I don't understand any of the metrics but how many teams have lost 5 of their last 7 games and, lose by 32 points in their tournament that will get in?
We don't have the players or depth to compete in the dance. The last thing that I want is another embarrassing performance by our players. Marvin Clark had the worst game of his entire career. Shamorie was not doing his thing. Only Simon seemed to give 100 percent. I think the loss made them ambivalent to the post season by comments made. Chris Mullin has been through hell in the past few weeks. It will be hard to emotionally come back in a short period of time.
I hope that the NIT committee is kind to them and we get a home game so our kids can give one last try.
 
[quote="RedStormNC" post=331481][quote="OLV72" post=331480]Any friends on the committee?[/quote]

Cragg's former boss

Kevin White, director of athletics, Duke University[/quote]

Hopefully Cragg can lobby him and get them to understand how we got screwed against Seton Hall and how two of our bad losses came with Ponds and Heron out. Also, conference tournament games should not count as home game regardless of where they are played considering how tickets are allotted etc.
 
[quote="Class of 72" post=331492]I don't understand any of the metrics but how many teams have lost 5 of their last 7 games and, lose by 32 points in their tournament that will get in?
We don't have the players or depth to compete in the dance. The last thing that I want is another embarrassing performance by our players. Marvin Clark had the worst game of his entire career. Shamorie was not doing his thing. Only Simon seemed to give 100 percent. I think the loss made them ambivalent to the post season by comments made. Chris Mullin has been through hell in the past few weeks. It will be hard to emotionally come back in a short period of time.
I hope that the NIT committee is kind to them and we get a home game so our kids can give one last try.[/quote]

Limping into NCAA Tourney = 1,000,000x better than playing in NIT
 
[quote="Class of 72" post=331492]I don't understand any of the metrics but how many teams have lost 5 of their last 7 games and, lose by 32 points in their tournament that will get in?
We don't have the players or depth to compete in the dance. The last thing that I want is another embarrassing performance by our players. Marvin Clark had the worst game of his entire career. Shamorie was not doing his thing. Only Simon seemed to give 100 percent. I think the loss made them ambivalent to the post season by comments made. Chris Mullin has been through hell in the past few weeks. It will be hard to emotionally come back in a short period of time.
I hope that the NIT committee is kind to them and we get a home game so our kids can give one last try.[/quote]

I hope we don’t have to tune into ESPNU at 8:30pm for the NIT selection show
 
[quote="Class of 72" post=331492]I don't understand any of the metrics but how many teams have lost 5 of their last 7 games and, lose by 32 points in their tournament that will get in?
We don't have the players or depth to compete in the dance. The last thing that I want is another embarrassing performance by our players. Marvin Clark had the worst game of his entire career. Shamorie was not doing his thing. Only Simon seemed to give 100 percent. I think the loss made them ambivalent to the post season by comments made. Chris Mullin has been through hell in the past few weeks. It will be hard to emotionally come back in a short period of time.
I hope that the NIT committee is kind to them and we get a home game so our kids can give one last try.[/quote]

They have said recency bias is not a factor. The final stretch may have hurt fans like you and me and definitely hurt their chances but their whole body of work is still looked at.
 
[quote="Room112" post=331458][quote="Adam" post=331456]Bracket Matrix has updated again. We are now tied with Temple as the last two teams in. NC State still first team out.

Us and Temple: 96/134 brackets
NC State: 58/134 brackets

Keep in mind too, a lot of teams ahead of us like Ohio St, Arizona St, TCU, Florida, etc aren't on 134/134 brackets.[/quote]

My fear is the committee is going to reward Belmont and/or UNC Greensboro. What are your thoughts on that?[/quote]

Do they have message boards ?
 
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