Predictability and Discipline

S

SJU1512

Active member
Two biggest issues facing this team right now. And I don't say this as a criticism, more of an encouragement. I thought the result this weekend was a good one, and it is beyond clear that this team has the desire to be great. And I actually think we are really close - REALLY close - to having a chance to be a great (relative to expectations) team this year. I see these two items as the lowest hanging fruit (there are others no doubt) that could push us to that level.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that Rysheed Jordan wants to drive hard to his right with long change of pace/euro steps as his finishing move. This results in defenders over-helping/diving to get their hands on the ball for strips/gearing up for offensives and officials anticipating offensives and traveling calls.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that D'Angelo Harrison wants to draw contact off the dribble in the act of shooting. Defenders are anticipating it and backing off and officials are going no-call more than not, which results in wild off-balance shot attempts.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that Chris Obekpa wants to send every shot within 5 feet of the basket into the 10th row. Offensive players are aggressively looking to draw fouls on him - clearly and not surprisingly a focal point of opposing game plans - and officials are anticipating the calls.

Could go on and on. Fundamentally the intentions are not bad. But we are probably negatively impacting 15-20 combined offensive/defensive possessions per game by doing precisely what everyone expects we will do. Surprisingly Dom is the one guy right now that is playing completely in the flow basketball, taking what the defense gives him and making the play that presents itself, not the one he's predetermined he wants to make.

The solution here is discipline. Chris has to understand that every foul he picks up - particularly nos. 3-5 in the 2nd half - are worth way, way more than the two points we're going to give up if he doesn't challenge the shot. Could never be more clear examples than fouls 3 and 4 Friday night. I appreciate D's want to be crafty and get himself to the line, and there is a place for that, but he needs to commit to getting himself good looks off the dribble and catch and his aggressive play will send him to the line plenty anyway. So on and so forth for pretty much every player on the team.

I don't know if this changes the results this weekend, which again I was happy with. But I do think if we bring the same energy and effort, but with a little more creativity and discipline, we beat Minny more soundly and are giving ourselves an even better change against the Zags. A lot - just a ton - of possessions wasted in both games on both ends. Projecting forward these possessions could be the difference in games, because I don't just see this as an in the weeds issue that could tip the scales in a 2 point game. Think this is more meat and potatoes, 19 wins vs. 24 wins type stuff.
 
I agree with the first two points. Rasheed needs to learn when not to force the drive and kick it out.
But I don't see Chris trying to block everything into the stands. Once maybe twice a game as an intimidation factor but every block -by no means.
 
Super post SJU 15! We can't afford to squander opportunities & become too predictable. There is no doubt this team can play aggressively. However, much doubt remains about playing smart. Our margin of error is scant & we must be more heady and strategic. We'll see. Nice job!
 
Two biggest issues facing this team right now. And I don't say this as a criticism, more of an encouragement. I thought the result this weekend was a good one, and it is beyond clear that this team has the desire to be great. And I actually think we are really close - REALLY close - to having a chance to be a great (relative to expectations) team this year. I see these two items as the lowest hanging fruit (there are others no doubt) that could push us to that level.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that Rysheed Jordan wants to drive hard to his right with long change of pace/euro steps as his finishing move. This results in defenders over-helping/diving to get their hands on the ball for strips/gearing up for offensives and officials anticipating offensives and traveling calls.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that D'Angelo Harrison wants to draw contact off the dribble in the act of shooting. Defenders are anticipating it and backing off and officials are going no-call more than not, which results in wild off-balance shot attempts.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that Chris Obekpa wants to send every shot within 5 feet of the basket into the 10th row. Offensive players are aggressively looking to draw fouls on him - clearly and not surprisingly a focal point of opposing game plans - and officials are anticipating the calls.

Could go on and on. Fundamentally the intentions are not bad. But we are probably negatively impacting 15-20 combined offensive/defensive possessions per game by doing precisely what everyone expects we will do. Surprisingly Dom is the one guy right now that is playing completely in the flow basketball, taking what the defense gives him and making the play that presents itself, not the one he's predetermined he wants to make.

The solution here is discipline. Chris has to understand that every foul he picks up - particularly nos. 3-5 in the 2nd half - are worth way, way more than the two points we're going to give up if he doesn't challenge the shot. Could never be more clear examples than fouls 3 and 4 Friday night. I appreciate D's want to be crafty and get himself to the line, and there is a place for that, but he needs to commit to getting himself good looks off the dribble and catch and his aggressive play will send him to the line plenty anyway. So on and so forth for pretty much every player on the team.

I don't know if this changes the results this weekend, which again I was happy with. But I do think if we bring the same energy and effort, but with a little more creativity and discipline, we beat Minny more soundly and are giving ourselves an even better change against the Zags. A lot - just a ton - of possessions wasted in both games on both ends. Projecting forward these possessions could be the difference in games, because I don't just see this as an in the weeds issue that could tip the scales in a 2 point game. Think this is more meat and potatoes, 19 wins vs. 24 wins type stuff.
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This is a very good post, but to me at least, these types of bad decisions are not merely manifestations of a bad game coach - they are innate deficiencies of these players. Don't you think the staff has told Dom and CO (and the rest) over and over and over again not to commit fouls 40 feet from the basket that most of us in the stands can see happening 3-4 seconds before contact is initiated? Don't you think the coaching staff continually encourages Rysheed not to make bad decisions as to when to take the ball to the hoop? Do you think the staff doesn't get on Branch for trying to make the incredible low-chance-of-success thread the needle passes in traffic that result in turnovers and invalidate him as a reliable point guard? Or advise Harrison against the pullup 23 footers when leading a 1 on 4 break, with no chance of an offensive rebound if missed? If these things aren't mentioned, then the whole staff deserves to be fired immediately. I'd chalk it up more though, to low basketball IQ that is difficult to teach to 18-22 year olds if they don't' have it ingrained in them by now.
 
Two biggest issues facing this team right now. And I don't say this as a criticism, more of an encouragement. I thought the result this weekend was a good one, and it is beyond clear that this team has the desire to be great. And I actually think we are really close - REALLY close - to having a chance to be a great (relative to expectations) team this year. I see these two items as the lowest hanging fruit (there are others no doubt) that could push us to that level.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that Rysheed Jordan wants to drive hard to his right with long change of pace/euro steps as his finishing move. This results in defenders over-helping/diving to get their hands on the ball for strips/gearing up for offensives and officials anticipating offensives and traveling calls.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that D'Angelo Harrison wants to draw contact off the dribble in the act of shooting. Defenders are anticipating it and backing off and officials are going no-call more than not, which results in wild off-balance shot attempts.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that Chris Obekpa wants to send every shot within 5 feet of the basket into the 10th row. Offensive players are aggressively looking to draw fouls on him - clearly and not surprisingly a focal point of opposing game plans - and officials are anticipating the calls.

Could go on and on. Fundamentally the intentions are not bad. But we are probably negatively impacting 15-20 combined offensive/defensive possessions per game by doing precisely what everyone expects we will do. Surprisingly Dom is the one guy right now that is playing completely in the flow basketball, taking what the defense gives him and making the play that presents itself, not the one he's predetermined he wants to make.

The solution here is discipline. Chris has to understand that every foul he picks up - particularly nos. 3-5 in the 2nd half - are worth way, way more than the two points we're going to give up if he doesn't challenge the shot. Could never be more clear examples than fouls 3 and 4 Friday night. I appreciate D's want to be crafty and get himself to the line, and there is a place for that, but he needs to commit to getting himself good looks off the dribble and catch and his aggressive play will send him to the line plenty anyway. So on and so forth for pretty much every player on the team.

I don't know if this changes the results this weekend, which again I was happy with. But I do think if we bring the same energy and effort, but with a little more creativity and discipline, we beat Minny more soundly and are giving ourselves an even better change against the Zags. A lot - just a ton - of possessions wasted in both games on both ends. Projecting forward these possessions could be the difference in games, because I don't just see this as an in the weeds issue that could tip the scales in a 2 point game. Think this is more meat and potatoes, 19 wins vs. 24 wins type stuff.
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You should put your real name on the post Coach Dunlap :) jk
 
Two biggest issues facing this team right now. And I don't say this as a criticism, more of an encouragement. I thought the result this weekend was a good one, and it is beyond clear that this team has the desire to be great. And I actually think we are really close - REALLY close - to having a chance to be a great (relative to expectations) team this year. I see these two items as the lowest hanging fruit (there are others no doubt) that could push us to that level.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that Rysheed Jordan wants to drive hard to his right with long change of pace/euro steps as his finishing move. This results in defenders over-helping/diving to get their hands on the ball for strips/gearing up for offensives and officials anticipating offensives and traveling calls.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that D'Angelo Harrison wants to draw contact off the dribble in the act of shooting. Defenders are anticipating it and backing off and officials are going no-call more than not, which results in wild off-balance shot attempts.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that Chris Obekpa wants to send every shot within 5 feet of the basket into the 10th row. Offensive players are aggressively looking to draw fouls on him - clearly and not surprisingly a focal point of opposing game plans - and officials are anticipating the calls.

Could go on and on. Fundamentally the intentions are not bad. But we are probably negatively impacting 15-20 combined offensive/defensive possessions per game by doing precisely what everyone expects we will do. Surprisingly Dom is the one guy right now that is playing completely in the flow basketball, taking what the defense gives him and making the play that presents itself, not the one he's predetermined he wants to make.

The solution here is discipline. Chris has to understand that every foul he picks up - particularly nos. 3-5 in the 2nd half - are worth way, way more than the two points we're going to give up if he doesn't challenge the shot. Could never be more clear examples than fouls 3 and 4 Friday night. I appreciate D's want to be crafty and get himself to the line, and there is a place for that, but he needs to commit to getting himself good looks off the dribble and catch and his aggressive play will send him to the line plenty anyway. So on and so forth for pretty much every player on the team.

I don't know if this changes the results this weekend, which again I was happy with. But I do think if we bring the same energy and effort, but with a little more creativity and discipline, we beat Minny more soundly and are giving ourselves an even better change against the Zags. A lot - just a ton - of possessions wasted in both games on both ends. Projecting forward these possessions could be the difference in games, because I don't just see this as an in the weeds issue that could tip the scales in a 2 point game. Think this is more meat and potatoes, 19 wins vs. 24 wins type stuff.
Click to expand...

This is a very good post, but to me at least, these types of bad decisions are not merely manifestations of a bad game coach - they are innate deficiencies of these players. Don't you think the staff has told Dom and CO (and the rest) over and over and over again not to commit fouls 40 feet from the basket that most of us in the stands can see happening 3-4 seconds before contact is initiated? Don't you think the coaching staff continually encourages Rysheed not to make bad decisions as to when to take the ball to the hoop? Do you think the staff doesn't get on Branch for trying to make the incredible low-chance-of-success thread the needle passes in traffic that result in turnovers and invalidate him as a reliable point guard? Or advise Harrison against the pullup 23 footers when leading a 1 on 4 break, with no chance of an offensive rebound if missed? If these things aren't mentioned, then the whole staff deserves to be fired immediately. I'd chalk it up more though, to low basketball IQ that is difficult to teach to 18-22 year olds if they don't' have it ingrained in them by now.
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Beast, I have no doubt that there's some low basketball IQ coming into play at times. But when you have seniors repeatedly chucking up horrible, low percentage shots with 30 seconds remaining on the shot clock, that is not low IQ- that is complete lack of discipline.
 
we played the most disciplined team in the country, next to Wisconsin in Zags..We played them to the wire. We shut down their two biggest weapons. We did this with Obekpa in foul trouble, and with Dom only on the floor for 9 minutes in the first half. We did this while missing the side of the barn from 3 in the first half. So we did some stuff really well. We played great defense once we switched out of the zone to the man..I am sure we were only in the zone to protect our two semi-bigs. That Zags team had two guys that can play center. Sabonis will be NBA bound. Their pg Pangos is an all American. We played them to the wire while being bashed on here, and in the press...We had two chances to tie the game with less than a minute left. We turned them over and they had the least amount of turnovers in the country before the game.

There is plenty to build on..First the man to man was awesome both against Minn and Zags..I agree we need to cut down on fouls...I don't blame the coaches for Dom and Obekpa senseless fouls, those guys have high motors and are very emotional. The identity of this team will be off the defense. We get quick buckets, and turnovers, yes our guards will get blown by from time to time, as they are trying to play the passing lanes..

I like the feel of this team, and I say keep on playing at a frenetic pace..we are better suited in the open court, not in a half court offense
 
we played the most disciplined team in the country, next to Wisconsin in Zags..We played them to the wire. We shut down their two biggest weapons. We did this with Obekpa in foul trouble, and with Dom only on the floor for 9 minutes in the first half. We did this while missing the side of the barn from 3 in the first half. So we did some stuff really well. We played great defense once we switched out of the zone to the man..I am sure we were only in the zone to protect our two semi-bigs. That Zags team had two guys that can play center. Sabonis will be NBA bound. Their pg Pangos is an all American. We played them to the wire while being bashed on here, and in the press...We had two chances to tie the game with less than a minute left. We turned them over and they had the least amount of turnovers in the country before the game.

There is plenty to build on..First the man to man was awesome both against Minn and Zags..I agree we need to cut down on fouls...I don't blame the coaches for Dom and Obekpa senseless fouls, those guys have high motors and are very emotional. The identity of this team will be off the defense. We get quick buckets, and turnovers, yes our guards will get blown by from time to time, as they are trying to play the passing lanes..

I like the feel of this team, and I say keep on playing at a frenetic pace..we are better suited in the open court, not in a half court offense
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"There is plenty to build on." There were some good things out there, no doubt about that but in our top 6, we are playing 4 players in their 4th year, 1 iin his third and 1 in his second; we should be well past hoping "to build" on anything. I am not here to bash this team but rather to state we are what we are. If they play with the desire and passion they showed against Gonzaga I am in regardless of record. Almost every team we play will have relatively equal talent and will play a cleaner more disciplined game. We will play helter skelter, out of control with little regard for time and score. I just don't see Jordan or Branch turning into a true floor general or Obepka finishing his opportunities around the basket, etc. But we have the athleticism to truly compete if we put out the effort on the defensive end and we get a decent amount of second chance points; the effort plays.
 
To summarize, the team shows too much predictably and too little discipline. Am I right?
 
Agree with your post except for the Obepka reference. To me his problem is reaching, it is a universal with our defense in that we reach to steal passes, dribbles, etc. rather than play defense with our feet. it is why our guards get beat so easily.Obepka needs to have a mindset to not foul rather than reaching when his man is dribbling or tr5ying to back him down.
 
Two biggest issues facing this team right now. And I don't say this as a criticism, more of an encouragement. I thought the result this weekend was a good one, and it is beyond clear that this team has the desire to be great. And I actually think we are really close - REALLY close - to having a chance to be a great (relative to expectations) team this year. I see these two items as the lowest hanging fruit (there are others no doubt) that could push us to that level.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that Rysheed Jordan wants to drive hard to his right with long change of pace/euro steps as his finishing move. This results in defenders over-helping/diving to get their hands on the ball for strips/gearing up for offensives and officials anticipating offensives and traveling calls.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that D'Angelo Harrison wants to draw contact off the dribble in the act of shooting. Defenders are anticipating it and backing off and officials are going no-call more than not, which results in wild off-balance shot attempts.

Everybody - opposition and officials - knows that Chris Obekpa wants to send every shot within 5 feet of the basket into the 10th row. Offensive players are aggressively looking to draw fouls on him - clearly and not surprisingly a focal point of opposing game plans - and officials are anticipating the calls.

Could go on and on. Fundamentally the intentions are not bad. But we are probably negatively impacting 15-20 combined offensive/defensive possessions per game by doing precisely what everyone expects we will do. Surprisingly Dom is the one guy right now that is playing completely in the flow basketball, taking what the defense gives him and making the play that presents itself, not the one he's predetermined he wants to make.

The solution here is discipline. Chris has to understand that every foul he picks up - particularly nos. 3-5 in the 2nd half - are worth way, way more than the two points we're going to give up if he doesn't challenge the shot. Could never be more clear examples than fouls 3 and 4 Friday night. I appreciate D's want to be crafty and get himself to the line, and there is a place for that, but he needs to commit to getting himself good looks off the dribble and catch and his aggressive play will send him to the line plenty anyway. So on and so forth for pretty much every player on the team.

I don't know if this changes the results this weekend, which again I was happy with. But I do think if we bring the same energy and effort, but with a little more creativity and discipline, we beat Minny more soundly and are giving ourselves an even better change against the Zags. A lot - just a ton - of possessions wasted in both games on both ends. Projecting forward these possessions could be the difference in games, because I don't just see this as an in the weeds issue that could tip the scales in a 2 point game. Think this is more meat and potatoes, 19 wins vs. 24 wins type stuff.
Click to expand...

This is a very good post, but to me at least, these types of bad decisions are not merely manifestations of a bad game coach - they are innate deficiencies of these players. Don't you think the staff has told Dom and CO (and the rest) over and over and over again not to commit fouls 40 feet from the basket that most of us in the stands can see happening 3-4 seconds before contact is initiated? Don't you think the coaching staff continually encourages Rysheed not to make bad decisions as to when to take the ball to the hoop? Do you think the staff doesn't get on Branch for trying to make the incredible low-chance-of-success thread the needle passes in traffic that result in turnovers and invalidate him as a reliable point guard? Or advise Harrison against the pullup 23 footers when leading a 1 on 4 break, with no chance of an offensive rebound if missed? If these things aren't mentioned, then the whole staff deserves to be fired immediately. I'd chalk it up more though, to low basketball IQ that is difficult to teach to 18-22 year olds if they don't' have it ingrained in them by now.
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Beast, I have no doubt that there's some low basketball IQ coming into play at times. But when you have seniors repeatedly chucking up horrible, low percentage shots with 30 seconds remaining on the shot clock, that is not low IQ- that is complete lack of discipline.
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I agree, but at that point it's semantics whether it's low basketball IQ or lack of discipline. Three seniors a junior and a sophomore as your starting 5 should be much smarter than the decisions they make, especially in crucial junctures of the game.
 
To summarize, the team shows too much predictably and too little discipline. Am I right?
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If they were more disciplined wouldn't they be more predictable? The less disciplined a system the less predictable the system → chaos. I think OP in his thoughtful post is suggesting that their indiscipline is predictable.
 
I agree with the first two points. Rasheed needs to learn when not to force the drive and kick it out.
But I don't see Chris trying to block everything into the stands. Once maybe twice a game as an intimidation factor but every block -by no means.
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I don't think the point was so much about where the blocks end up, CO is actually pretty good at trying to make sure his blocks end up in change of possession as much as he can, but rather that he tries to block shots he shouldn't - emphasis on every shot, not so much on in the stands. I also agree with Logen that he and others play too much defense with their hands and not enough with their feet. Hands end up in fouls far more frequently especially when arms are overextended.
 
I agree with the first two points. Rasheed needs to learn when not to force the drive and kick it out.
But I don't see Chris trying to block everything into the stands. Once maybe twice a game as an intimidation factor but every block -by no means.
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I don't think the point was so much about where the blocks end up, CO is actually pretty good at trying to make sure his blocks end up in change of possession as much as he can, but rather that he tries to block shots he shouldn't - emphasis on every shot, not so much on in the stands. I also agree with Logen that he and others play too much defense with their hands and not enough with their feet. Hands end up in fouls far more frequently especially when arms are overextended.
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Chris especially, for obvious reasons, has to learn not to reach in for the ball on D.That will be called all the time. You don't have to be a Mensa member to get that.
 
I agree with the first two points. Rasheed needs to learn when not to force the drive and kick it out.
But I don't see Chris trying to block everything into the stands. Once maybe twice a game as an intimidation factor but every block -by no means.
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I don't think the point was so much about where the blocks end up, CO is actually pretty good at trying to make sure his blocks end up in change of possession as much as he can, but rather that he tries to block shots he shouldn't - emphasis on every shot, not so much on in the stands. I also agree with Logen that he and others play too much defense with their hands and not enough with their feet. Hands end up in fouls far more frequently especially when arms are overextended.
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Exactly, my original point was not well articulated on CO. We want and need him to be an aggressive shot-blocker. But we want and need him on the court more. He's going to be more exposed than ever with the minutes he's going to need to play and our lack of height. So there has to be some selectivity based upon circumstances so that we don't have many more games like Gonzaga where he is only out there 22 minutes and his overall impact is not felt because he continued to try to block shots with 3 fouls like he had 0. And agreed with others that the reaching has to be eliminated entirely.

Also agreed that this is not exclusively a coaching problem. The kids have to commit to playing smarter basketball.

As Paultz noted, the margin for error is slim. And that was the angle I was coming at this from. 5 games in, this is the biggest area I see where we can give ourselves some meaningful breathing room without a tremendously difficult fix. Playing smarter with fouls, better shot selection, more control driving in traffic, etc. really should be things we can fine tune on an expedited basis.
 
Common killer our last two seasons: UNC Asheville and PSU losses.

Gotta take care of two good mid majors on LBSU and Saint Mary's

Gotta beat the bad teams we play like FDU, Tulane Fordham

And it isn't imperative for us to make the tourney, but 1-1 in Cuse/Duke games would help our chances greatly.

Gotta be disciplined enough not to slip up, like Xavier did to LBSU last night.
 
Our roster's best chance of winning comes down to getting the other guy sucked into the same undisciplined style that we play. We are not going to beat anyone on the schedule in a shooting contest or by matching half court offenses. This team should be made to watch game films of Hatten's team starting with the Duke win. Within minutes, even disciplined, well coached teams were throwing length of the court passes into the stands.

This team has similarities to Hatten's NIT winning team. D Lo is like Hatten, more scorer than shooter, and rebounds well for his size. We go small up front. So did Hatten's team. The key is getting more field goal attempts than the other guy. A lot more. That comes from offensive rebounding and causing turnovers. Hatten's team was top 5 in both steals and offensive rebounds. This offset their lack of shooting, especially from 3. We may have loftier hopes than a NIT championship. When you can't shoot the basketball, you better figure out another way to achieve those goals.
 
Our roster's best chance of winning comes down to getting the other guy sucked into the same undisciplined style that we play. We are not going to beat anyone on the schedule in a shooting contest or by matching half court offenses. This team should be made to watch game films of Hatten's team starting with the Duke win. Within minutes, even disciplined, well coached teams were throwing length of the court passes into the stands.

This team has similarities to Hatten's NIT winning team. D Lo is like Hatten, more scorer than shooter, and rebounds well for his size. We go small up front. So did Hatten's team. The key is getting more field goal attempts than the other guy. A lot more. That comes from offensive rebounding and causing turnovers. Hatten's team was top 5 in both steals and offensive rebounds. This offset their lack of shooting, especially from 3. We may have loftier hopes than a NIT championship. When you can't shoot the basketball, you better figure out another way to achieve those goals.
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I said before the season started that we need someone to step up as the money player on this team. A Harvey, Hatten,, Hardy kind of player. Someone who can be counted on to make the right decisions in the big moments. D'lo is certainly the likeliest candidate.
 
Our guys can't shoot, and give away inches all over the floor. This does not call for good out comes. In order to beat a good team that plays well, our guys must play great. Creating turnovers and getting 2ed chance points is a must. Hard to archive while playing it safe. Some games we are going to foul because the other guys are just to good or have to much height all over the court. I have been a Lavin backer, but leaving us without height or shooters hard to take. Dlo gatta play like a power forward, and be clutch down the stretch. a lot to ask.
 
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