(PRE-GAME) @Creighton, Wed., Jan. 19, 7p, FS-1

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Knight

Knight

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Johnnies have won once in last ten games at Creighton. Due or done? :)
 
If they continue to give up 2nd and 3rd chances on the boards, then not due.
 
Today was a nice win, but I am not believing in this team until they give me reason to.  This team this year has not proven they can go into hostile territory and pull an upset.  I am keeping my expectations low and I hope this team proves me wrong.
 
Creighton is a very tough place to play. They pack the place for nearly every home game (about 17,000 strong). Their rabid fans provide Creighton with a huge home court advantage.

As Paultz mentioned, our record there in recent years has been abysmal. We need to be locked in for the full 40 minutes and play as a unit like we did today in order to have a shot a beating them.

Here's hoping that we can pull it off. It would be really nice to have a conference record above .500

Paultzman, I say DUE!!!

 
 
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The next 3 games will determine if the rest of the season matters. Have to win 2 out of these 3. Probably not sweeping SHU in a 3 day span so need to take this game Wednesday.

Also going to need to pick up a decent amount of road wins in conference and this would be a nice one to grab.
 
SJ Press Release

 “Creighton returns to Omaha following three straight games on the road.  The Bluejays outlasted Marquette in overtime on New Year’s Day before coming up short against a pair of ranked foes in Villanova and Xavier.  A scheduled home game against Providence on Jan. 11 was called off at the last minute due to COVID issues with the Friars.  The Bluejays are 5-2 this season in Omaha, falling to then-No. 19 Iowa State and Arizona State during non-conference play.  Their lone home win during BIG EAST play was a 20-point drubbing of then-No. 9 Villanova on Dec. 17. 

Creighton has trotted out the same starting lineup in all 15 of its games with four of those five averaging double figures.  Ryan Hawkins, who won two national championships at Division II Northwest Missouri State, leads the team with 13.4 points per game followed by Duke transfer Alex O’Connell at 12.5 points per outing.  Freshman point guard Ryan Nembhard also averages 12.5 points to go along with a team-leading 4.5 assists per outing.  7-foot-1 sophomore Ryan Kalkbrenner adds 12.0 points and a team-best 2.9 shots per game, the latter of which ranks third in the league.”

 “St. John’s is 10-13 all-time against Creighton, including a 1-9 record in road contests.  The Red Storm’s lone win in Omaha against the Bluejays came on Jan. 30, 2019, a game in which Shamorie Ponds nearly registered a triple-double with 26 points, eight rebounds, eight assists and six steals.”
 
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Winnable game as long we win certain matchups. The key matchup will Posh vs Creighton’s Freshman phenom point guard Ryan Nembhard. With Posh’s superior on ball defense he needs to make Nembhard look like a Freshman. If Posh can’t keep him in check to start with we won’t win. If Posh can dominate that matchup our chances to win go up exponentially. 
 
I like the Johnnies to pull off the upset tomorrow. Realize it's a very tough venue to play and our record there is terrible but just think it's a good matchup for us and we are due to win one on the road against a good team. Unusually for them, Creighton is last in Big East in three point shooting, always a problem for us defensively. They also turn the ball over a lot including their point guard Nembhard. I am betting that our top three (Champ, Posh & Wusu) will be better than their top three (Hawkins, Nembhard & O'Connell) and I expect Posh to really give Nembhard nightmares so long as he is healthy. Hawkins is the kind of guy who often hurts us and their best shooter from three so we do need to play tight D on him. Also need to have Soriano stay on the court against Kalkbrenner who I believe is not a bad matchup for him.
Maybe I'm nuts but have a good feeling about tomorrow's game.      
 
Imo, a decent chance for SJU win if they cause a high number of Creighton turnovers, a recent trend for the Bluejays.
 
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Paultzman post=451189 said:
Imo, a decent chance for SJU win if they cause a high number of Creighton turnovers, a recent trend for the Bluejays.
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Agreed Paultz, that’s why the Posh / Nembhard matchup is key for us.
 
I am resigned to the fact that I will never be happy with our fundamentals on the defensive glass - I think that systemically we basically give that up in order to leak out and create pace.  So unless Soriano or Stanley go into Beast Mode and do it themselves, defensive boards are just never going to be our strength.  On the other hand, I don't think Creighton is one of the more formidable offensive rebounding teams in the league, so as long as somebody pays adequate attention to Kalkbrenner I don't think they will kill us with offensive rebounds/putbacks.

I do not think Creighton will mind playing at our pace - they have been happy to run with us at times in the past and I think they will again.

So basically as long as we manage Kalkbrenner and Posh offsets Nembhard, I think this game is going to come down to offensive efficiency and 3 point shooting.  In the past we have beaten Creighton when we have shot well and they haven't - but that does not usually happen when Creighton is at home.

So we have a chance, but we are going to need Julian to find some consistency from 3, good decisions on the drive by Mathis (not hugely optimistic on that), Wheeler to continue to make good decisions on when to shoot and to continue to shoot well when he does, probably a couple of threes from Posh ... and this may be a game where Stef Smith or Coburn can get some run and make an impact.  I expect the winning team to need to score 90+

 
 
lawmanfan post=451220 said:
  I expect the winning team to need to score 90+


The Vegas line is currently 3.5 with an over/under of 150.5.  That's a projected score of about 77-74 so if one team gets 90, this game is likely to go way over the Vegas total.
 
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Long Island Mike post=451224 said:
lawmanfan post=451220 said:
  I expect the winning team to need to score 90+


The Vegas line is currently 3.5 with an over/under of 150.5.  That's a projected score of about 77-74 so if one team gets 90, this game is likely to go way over the Vegas total.

 
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Bet the over.  Not that I condone wagering in any form.
 
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