Jon Rothstein's Preseason Top 25

[jr49]

Harvard ahead of us No way

They pick Harvard to win the Ivy. Any problem there?

 

[ras]

Updated August bracket:

www.explorertownbracketologist.com

You're still in the tourney.

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

 

[MJDinkins]

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

No need to let a poll frustrate you. I wouldn't sweat it. It's just predictions. Too bad the game isn't played on paper.

 

[Red.Fans]

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

True and I am very optimistic. I don't go in much for making predictions and I don't think I've ever done so in 15 years of redmen.com but I'm going to predict that this team gets into the Top 10 rankings. This is the best team we've had since the Erick Barkley crew and we have a LOT of weapons that most teams won't be able to matchup with. That team had a lot of chemistry aside from the skills. If these guys come together like that as a team this will be a great team.

 

[logen]

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

No need to let a poll frustrate you. I wouldn't sweat it. It's just predictions. Too bad the game isn't played on paper.

Ah, the offseason. We can write about talent and positions all we want but it is all about chemistry and the willingness to sacrifice; we shall see.

 

[Marillac]

We do have talent but some questions remain. We have typical redundancy issues with Jordan, Harrison, Greene and Pointer all tending toward the 2G position. Then Karr and Sanchez both seem best suited to the 3. The 1,4 and 5 slots are a little iffy with Branch, Gift and CO becoming really important
Frenchie and Hooper seem to overlap completely and Jones best qualities remain to be seen. Lavin will definitely earn his bucks finding combinations that work I think that's the main reason why our pre-season rankings are conservative as a functioning team but optimistic regarding individual talent. Our 2010 team also had redundancy but a lot of experience and of course Dunlap. Can Lavin cut it w/o a Dunlap is my biggest concern now that the horses are apparently in the stable.

I have to disagree with you completely on the positions you mentioned. Dom is much more 3 than 2, Jakarr's and Sanchez are much more 4 than 3, and I believe Jordan is more of a point than a 2.

Couldn't agree more.

Gonzalo, you are absolutely right about the shooting stats of Sanchez. I have cited them more than anyone on these boards. For a PF/C...that is a pretty darn good clip. He's not going to command double-teams out there, but you better believe he cannot be left alone on pick-and-rolls. As for Bourgault, I think he is a very good shooter, but he had an impossible role for this team. Imagine having to be the ONLY shooter on one of the worst shooting teams in the country? Tough task.

 

[SJU1512]

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

True and I am very optimistic. I don't go in much for making predictions and I don't think I've ever done so in 15 years of redmen.com but I'm going to predict that this team gets into the Top 10 rankings. This is the best team we've had since the Erick Barkley crew and we have a LOT of weapons that most teams won't be able to matchup with. That team had a lot of chemistry aside from the skills. If these guys come together like that as a team this will be a great team.

Great point, and I hope this team plays at the same tempo that team did. One of the best offensive transition teams I've ever seen. It was a track meet the second we got the ball back and not many could keep up with our speed. It seemed like Erick threw Lavor a lob from halfcourt once a game. Really fun basketball to watch.

 

[ras]

If Im not mistaken the Barkley teams did not have preseason top 25 rankings.

 

[MJDinkins]

If Im not mistaken the Barkley teams did not have preseason top 25 rankings.

They were ranked in the preseason. I believe they were ranked somewhere between #16-#18.

EDIT:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999–2000_NCAA_Division_I_men's_basketball_season#Pre-season_polls

 

[Andrew]

We received the best present we could have possibly asked for by getting Orlando Sanchez, a 6'8 remarkably skilled big man, with three years of college experience (one as a redshirt at STJ). Sanchez single-handedly cures many of the ills St. John's suffered from last season. He is 220 pounds, a terrific rebounder down low, he passes and moves the ball extremely well for a big man, and he even hits threes at a good clip.

I have read several times that Sanchez is a good outside shooter. But the stats give another consideration:

As sophomore Sanchez was 5-19 (.263) in 3 point shooting. Remember Bourgault shot .42 in the same team.

Davon Marshall shot .47.

=4&divid=0&slid=2&seasonselect=556&collegeid=1232&report_id=3759&requesttimeout=15

And Sanchez was 40-68 (.582) in free throws.

=4&divid=0&slid=2&seasonselect=556&collegeid=1232&report_id=3757&requesttimeout=15

 

[Pleasedontbanmeagain]

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

True and I am very optimistic. I don't go in much for making predictions and I don't think I've ever done so in 15 years of redmen.com but I'm going to predict that this team gets into the Top 10 rankings. This is the best team we've had since the Erick Barkley crew and we have a LOT of weapons that most teams won't be able to matchup with. That team had a lot of chemistry aside from the skills. If these guys come together like that as a team this will be a great team.

Wow...top 10? For that to happen this team will have to look like a totally different team from last year. Night and day. Jordan will have to be the real deal, Hooper will have to knock down 3's consistently, Sampson, Pointer, and Harrison will have to significantly improve, Sanchez has to dominate with rebounds, and we will need to be healthy for a top 10 spot to even be realistic. I'd be thrilled being anywhere in the top 25 and if we made the sweet 16 I'd be ecstatic and so would the city. It's just hard to picture this team having that much success growing up as they sucked 95% of my lifetime. We no doubt have the horses...the question is, will they live up to these expectations? Let's hope this is a season to remember. Make or break year for Lavin.

 

[bk8664]

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

True and I am very optimistic. I don't go in much for making predictions and I don't think I've ever done so in 15 years of redmen.com but I'm going to predict that this team gets into the Top 10 rankings. This is the best team we've had since the Erick Barkley crew and we have a LOT of weapons that most teams won't be able to matchup with. That team had a lot of chemistry aside from the skills. If these guys come together like that as a team this will be a great team.

Wow...top 10? For that to happen this team will have to look like a totally different team from last year. Night and day. Jordan will have to be the real deal, Hooper will have to knock down 3's consistently, Sampson, Pointer, and Harrison will have to significantly improve, Sanchez has to dominate with rebounds, and we will need to be healthy for a top 10 spot to even be realistic. I'd be thrilled being anywhere in the top 25 and if we made the sweet 16 I'd be ecstatic and so would the city. It's just hard to picture this team having that much success growing up as they sucked 95% of my lifetime. We no doubt have the horses...the question is, will they live up to these expectations? Let's hope this is a season to remember. Make or break year for Lavin.

Please explain why it is make or break.

 

[Pleasedontbanmeagain]

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

True and I am very optimistic. I don't go in much for making predictions and I don't think I've ever done so in 15 years of redmen.com but I'm going to predict that this team gets into the Top 10 rankings. This is the best team we've had since the Erick Barkley crew and we have a LOT of weapons that most teams won't be able to matchup with. That team had a lot of chemistry aside from the skills. If these guys come together like that as a team this will be a great team.

Wow...top 10? For that to happen this team will have to look like a totally different team from last year. Night and day. Jordan will have to be the real deal, Hooper will have to knock down 3's consistently, Sampson, Pointer, and Harrison will have to significantly improve, Sanchez has to dominate with rebounds, and we will need to be healthy for a top 10 spot to even be realistic. I'd be thrilled being anywhere in the top 25 and if we made the sweet 16 I'd be ecstatic and so would the city. It's just hard to picture this team having that much success growing up as they sucked 95% of my lifetime. We no doubt have the horses...the question is, will they live up to these expectations? Let's hope this is a season to remember. Make or break year for Lavin.

Please explain why it is make or break.

Because this is a season where Lavin will have as talented and veteran a team as he ever will. All the horses are here...if we have a bad year it won't be for lack of talent or too much inexperience. The missing piece is Lavin getting them prepared now. When I said make or break I don't mean fired obviously, but if we don't at the very least make the tournament and flirt with the top 25-30 while finishing in the top 4 in conference, then something is wrong and Lavin will have tons of articles written about him being on the hot seat. He has his best horses out there, so what happens this year will be more attributed to the coach IMO. Let me turn that around...if we miss the tourney, how does Lavin NOT get placed on the hot seat with a sweet 16 capable team talent wise?

 

[Andrew]

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

True and I am very optimistic. I don't go in much for making predictions and I don't think I've ever done so in 15 years of redmen.com but I'm going to predict that this team gets into the Top 10 rankings. This is the best team we've had since the Erick Barkley crew and we have a LOT of weapons that most teams won't be able to matchup with. That team had a lot of chemistry aside from the skills. If these guys come together like that as a team this will be a great team.

Wow...top 10? For that to happen this team will have to look like a totally different team from last year. Night and day. Jordan will have to be the real deal, Hooper will have to knock down 3's consistently, Sampson, Pointer, and Harrison will have to significantly improve, Sanchez has to dominate with rebounds, and we will need to be healthy for a top 10 spot to even be realistic. I'd be thrilled being anywhere in the top 25 and if we made the sweet 16 I'd be ecstatic and so would the city. It's just hard to picture this team having that much success growing up as they sucked 95% of my lifetime. We no doubt have the horses...the question is, will they live up to these expectations? Let's hope this is a season to remember. Make or break year for Lavin.

Please explain why it is make or break.

Because this is a season where Lavin will have as talented and veteran a team as he ever will. All the horses are here...if we have a bad year it won't be for lack of talent or too much inexperience. The missing piece is Lavin getting them prepared now. When I said make or break I don't mean fired obviously, but if we don't at the very least make the tournament and flirt with the top 25-30 while finishing in the top 4 in conference, then something is wrong and Lavin will have tons of articles written about him being on the hot seat. He has his best horses out there, so what happens this year will be more attributed to the coach IMO. Let me turn that around...if we miss the tourney, how does Lavin NOT get placed on the hot seat with a sweet 16 capable team talent wise?

I have to agree here. Lavin has done a great job recruiting to date (especially with his illness). If the team fails to make the tournament and win a game or two, the momentum dies and could be difficult to reproduce.

 

[Red.Fans]

Wow...top 10? For that to happen this team will have to look like a totally different team from last year. Night and day. Jordan will have to be the real deal, Hooper will have to knock down 3's consistently, Sampson, Pointer, and Harrison will have to significantly improve, Sanchez has to dominate with rebounds, and we will need to be healthy for a top 10 spot to even be realistic. I'd be thrilled being anywhere in the top 25 and if we made the sweet 16 I'd be ecstatic and so would the city. It's just hard to picture this team having that much success growing up as they sucked 95% of my lifetime. We no doubt have the horses...the question is, will they live up to these expectations? Let's hope this is a season to remember. Make or break year for Lavin.

What we have this season is a very deep bench at multiple positions and a lot more experience. We went from literally the youngest team in the country to going at least 10 deep with guys who have already played quality minutes. Sanchez is the exception but by all reports is ready and has a year with the team so there should be little to no, breaking in period. GG is also coming in with a year's experience and an additional year with the team. IMHO we did not see his best game with little frontcourt support. On this team he is going to be a matchup problem for our opponents rather than a matchup problem for us. I think the summer also gives us an advantage and we won't be losing those early season games.

 

[bk8664]

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

True and I am very optimistic. I don't go in much for making predictions and I don't think I've ever done so in 15 years of redmen.com but I'm going to predict that this team gets into the Top 10 rankings. This is the best team we've had since the Erick Barkley crew and we have a LOT of weapons that most teams won't be able to matchup with. That team had a lot of chemistry aside from the skills. If these guys come together like that as a team this will be a great team.

Wow...top 10? For that to happen this team will have to look like a totally different team from last year. Night and day. Jordan will have to be the real deal, Hooper will have to knock down 3's consistently, Sampson, Pointer, and Harrison will have to significantly improve, Sanchez has to dominate with rebounds, and we will need to be healthy for a top 10 spot to even be realistic. I'd be thrilled being anywhere in the top 25 and if we made the sweet 16 I'd be ecstatic and so would the city. It's just hard to picture this team having that much success growing up as they sucked 95% of my lifetime. We no doubt have the horses...the question is, will they live up to these expectations? Let's hope this is a season to remember. Make or break year for Lavin.

Please explain why it is make or break.

Because this is a season where Lavin will have as talented and veteran a team as he ever will. All the horses are here...if we have a bad year it won't be for lack of talent or too much inexperience. The missing piece is Lavin getting them prepared now. When I said make or break I don't mean fired obviously, but if we don't at the very least make the tournament and flirt with the top 25-30 while finishing in the top 4 in conference, then something is wrong and Lavin will have tons of articles written about him being on the hot seat. He has his best horses out there, so what happens this year will be more attributed to the coach IMO. Let me turn that around...if we miss the tourney, how does Lavin NOT get placed on the hot seat with a sweet 16 capable team talent wise?

Certainly fans have expectations for this season (including me; indeed I have very high hopes); and also for certain this is a high pressure job for Lavin. But I think that this season there is still room for an in-between result where it doesn't 'break' or 'make' the momentum of the program. What would happen if they make the tournament and win only one game and get upset in the second round? Is that a failure? what if they lost in the 1st game of the tournament, but Lavin has again brought even more high-level recruits? Would that be a 'break' season? On the other hand, let's say that we make the sweet sixteen or elite eight, but we can't get a single stud recruit to come on board? Is that a 'make' season? I know I'm parsing words, but I think there is a little more wiggle room between the two absolutes of 'make' or 'break'. A whole range of possibilities can happen, and most likely the team's results and the direction of the program will be something between and an absolute stunning success and an absolute failure.

 

[ras]

IMO not making the NCAA tourney would be a failure.

 

[Andrew]

I don't want to beat this to death but someone posted recently that we are one of the few programs that can start five top seventy five recruits and have a strong bench. At team with that bio should make the NCAA.

 

[Pleasedontbanmeagain]

Its frustrating to think we are still considered a bubble team. We should be much better than last year and we were a bubble team before Dlo got suspended. But, the only thing that really matters is what we do in games, it really doesn't matter what pundits think at this point.

True and I am very optimistic. I don't go in much for making predictions and I don't think I've ever done so in 15 years of redmen.com but I'm going to predict that this team gets into the Top 10 rankings. This is the best team we've had since the Erick Barkley crew and we have a LOT of weapons that most teams won't be able to matchup with. That team had a lot of chemistry aside from the skills. If these guys come together like that as a team this will be a great team.

Wow...top 10? For that to happen this team will have to look like a totally different team from last year. Night and day. Jordan will have to be the real deal, Hooper will have to knock down 3's consistently, Sampson, Pointer, and Harrison will have to significantly improve, Sanchez has to dominate with rebounds, and we will need to be healthy for a top 10 spot to even be realistic. I'd be thrilled being anywhere in the top 25 and if we made the sweet 16 I'd be ecstatic and so would the city. It's just hard to picture this team having that much success growing up as they sucked 95% of my lifetime. We no doubt have the horses...the question is, will they live up to these expectations? Let's hope this is a season to remember. Make or break year for Lavin.

Please explain why it is make or break.

Because this is a season where Lavin will have as talented and veteran a team as he ever will. All the horses are here...if we have a bad year it won't be for lack of talent or too much inexperience. The missing piece is Lavin getting them prepared now. When I said make or break I don't mean fired obviously, but if we don't at the very least make the tournament and flirt with the top 25-30 while finishing in the top 4 in conference, then something is wrong and Lavin will have tons of articles written about him being on the hot seat. He has his best horses out there, so what happens this year will be more attributed to the coach IMO. Let me turn that around...if we miss the tourney, how does Lavin NOT get placed on the hot seat with a sweet 16 capable team talent wise?

Certainly fans have expectations for this season (including me; indeed I have very high hopes); and also for certain this is a high pressure job for Lavin. But I think that this season there is still room for an in-between result where it doesn't 'break' or 'make' the momentum of the program. What would happen if they make the tournament and win only one game and get upset in the second round? Is that a failure? what if they lost in the 1st game of the tournament, but Lavin has again brought even more high-level recruits? Would that be a 'break' season? On the other hand, let's say that we make the sweet sixteen or elite eight, but we can't get a single stud recruit to come on board? Is that a 'make' season? I know I'm parsing words, but I think there is a little more wiggle room between the two absolutes of 'make' or 'break'. A whole range of possibilities can happen, and most likely the team's results and the direction of the program will be something between and an absolute stunning success and an absolute failure.

1. Make tourney and win only 1 game then upset in 2nd round = mild success because we still made the tourney which is the absolute bare minimum we are expected to do.

2. Lost in 1st game of tourney but Lavin brings more high-level recruits = mild success because we made the tourney, but questions would begin to surface and he would be seen as a glamorous recruiter with no results, so the high-recruiting profile would start to seem meaningless.

3. Make sweet 16 or elite 8 but can't get stud recruits = 100% wild success...this is a results-oriented business and both of those are exceptional results so recruiting takes the back seat here.

Results are more important than recruiting...just ask Temple, Wichita State, Butler, Creighton, etc. If Lavin does not take us to the tourney at the bare minimum, this season will be seen as a severe failure. If we make the tourney but get knocked out asap people will say "well, at least SJU is taking steps towards being a long-term relevant program again, but his recruiting prowess seems like it means nothing if the results don't match the recruiting talent". We will be seen as paper tigers.

 

[Andrew]

I have been following St John's basketball for over thirty years now and still remember the disappointment of losing to Georgetown in the Final Four. I am also a Met and Jet fan and have stayed loyal to them as well. I do not ask for a lot. Lets win some games this year and hope for the best!