Jeff Goodman's Preseason Top 25

Other things to consider-anytime you bring up SL at UCLA let's put in context that he was at the preeminent basketball program in the conference. CMA at Arkansas was at a much lesser conference school witness their lack of success in football which I am sure they are trying much harder to be good at and devoting more of their resources toward.
 
We all (hopefully) want our new coach to succeed. IMHO, comparing his conference record with Cluess' is crazy given the chasm between the level of competition. Lavin is a better comparison and I liked Lavin, but I do think CA has had better consistency. I just feel like we are going to have the kind of run in terms of consistent winning we haven't seen since Louie. Year 1 could be challenging, but we are well positioned for success moving forward. As CD would say, time will tell.
 
[quote="NCJohnnie" post=351239]We all (hopefully) want our new coach to succeed. IMHO, comparing his conference record with Cluess' is crazy given the chasm between the level of competition. Lavin is a better comparison and I liked Lavin, but I do think CA has had better consistency. I just feel like we are going to have the kind of run in terms of consistent winning we haven't seen since Louie. Year 1 could be challenging, but we are well positioned for success moving forward. As CD would say, time will tell.[/quote] totally agree
 
I think it was Francesa who talked about Jarvis going out of his way to get himself fired, not showing up at the annual president's dinner, recruiting had tanked and he didn't want the losing season he saw coming on his record.
 
I think if you look back at the last 15 seasons, the best-constructed, most balanced, and talented staff was Lavin's first year. An ultra recruiter and dynamic front-man for program as HC, a tactician AHC to run game and practice strategy, a recruiting assistant with local ties, a player development assistant, a DOBO with coaching experience and local ties, and a HOFer as special assistant.

Obviously it didn't work out like that for that staff longer term for a variety of reasons, but the first year they all seemed play those roles and not surprisingly it was the most successful season the program has had both on the court and in recruiting in the last 15 years (12 conference wins the most since Jarvis' second season 20 years ago).

We've had a lot of paper tiger staffs, right now this staff is mostly on paper, and they'll be judged on results just like everybody else. But if we are evaluating just the composition, balance, experience, and most importantly track record of success (specifically on the college level) is something this program hasn't often seen.

Regarding the last that's one of the biggest reasons for optimism around Anderson IMO. He's done it at 3 different places with different dynamics and expectation levels. As an SEC buddy of mine put it recently, we think there's expectations for SJU basketball in the Big East, but in the SEC every fan base expects to be Alabama in football and Kentucky in basketball and if you aren't you're falling short. That's what Anderson is used to and the expectations around this program - unrealistic as they often are in their own right - are going to be a big step down from what he's used to the last 8 years (and probably to a slightly lesser extent the 5 before that at Mizzou).

Reality is we would probably sign up for Anderson's results at any of his 3 stops as a HC, and the last 2 of them were at bigger/better/higher expectation jobs.

1. 4 losing conference records in 17 years, only 1 after Year 2 on any job (8-10, which at SJU is a well above-average conference performance).

2. 10 times in 17 seasons has won 22+ games, something SJU hasn't done since 99-00. To capture SJU doing it 10 times, you have to go back 42 years to the 76-77 season.

3. 9 NCAA wins (at least 2 at every stop), something SJU hasn't done once since the 99-00 season. To capture SJU winning 9 total NCAA games, you have to go back 30 years to the 89-90 season.

I'm optimistic that Anderson will methodically generate similar results at SJU that his track record suggests. He knows how to do this and so does his staff.
 
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[quote="Class of 72" post=351231][quote="Paultzman" post=351224]Re Tim Cluess :)
[/quote]

I'm still not getting all the Tim Cluess love here. My friend Beast compared their records but in reality it is like comparing apples and oranges. Tim has never coached at a high D1 program. His Iona teams the past six years have had 11 or more losses. His record is skewed by easy in conference wins. His post season is a textbook 1 and done scenario.
Coach Anderson coached in the Big 12 and SEC. In the past 6 seasons his teams went to 5 post season tournaments and made it to the 2nd round 4 of the five. While Cluess was coaching and recruiting against powerhouses like Manhattan, St. Peter's, and Marist, CMA was going against the financially wealthy like Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.
I rest my case.[/quote]

It isn't directly comparable, and as I explained it's the only comparison we have. I could have stated his D2 numbers, which got him the shot at IONA, where in conference he won a crazy 85% of his team's games.

We overblow guys who come here before they play or coach. Anderson at both Missouri and Arkansas, is mostly a middle of the pack record, on average, slightly less than 10-8. Now, guys here may say right now that we'd be happy as heck with 10-8 overall, but guarantee you if in 4 years that's the best we do (after we throw out what will likely be a sub .500 1st year in conference, and we will be looking for another coach. Our hiring expectation is to have a coach who will put us in the top 1/3 of conference consistently, namely 3rd or 4th place or better. If we are totally honest about CMA's record, his average team is middle of the pack.

The only point comparing him to Cluess, is that historically, Cluess' teams have been the best in his league or conference hands down over his tenure, and in HS among the very best in the country. There is absolutely nothing in his career accomplishments that would have you think he'd have failed here to deliver wins. Cluess may have had "easy" in conference wins, but keep in mind he is limited by recruiting a certain level of player in a mid major, and has always managed to field better teams than the rest of the league wherever he coached. I'd call that a great eye for available talent, and excellent coaching to put his players in a position to win.
 
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While most of us will live in the reality that CMA is our coach some can live in the fantasy that TC is our coach. Have to admit fantasy always crushes reality. LOL
 
[quote="Beast of the East" post=351272]We overblow guys who come here before they play or coach. Anderson at both Missouri and Arkansas, is mostly a middle of the pack record, on average, slightly less than 10-8. Now, guys here may say right now that we'd be happy as heck with 10-8 overall, but guarantee you if in 4 years that's the best we do (after we throw out what will likely be a sub .500 1st year in conference, and we will be looking for another coach. Our hiring expectation is to have a coach who will put us in the top 1/3 of conference consistently, namely 3rd or 4th place or better. If we are totally honest about CMA's record, his average team is middle of the pack.[/quote]

Agree we overhype coaches/players before they do anything.

Also agree if the best Anderson does is his average of 10-8 that may test patience, even though that average is better than the best conference record 2 of our last 3 coaches achieved, neither of which managed .500 across 10 combined seasons.

But I think that average will be well-received if he arrives at it in similar fashion as he has to date. It's never taken him more than year 4 to win at least 12 conference games / finish 3rd or better. He's finished worse than .500 in conference less than 25% of the time, never worse than 6-10. He's finished 3rd or 4th place or better (the hiring expectation you noted which I agree with) 8 times in 17 seasons, which is fairly consistent generally, and by recent SJU standards may as well be Kansas in the Big 12.

If Anderson averages 10-8, wins 12 / finishes 3rd or better year 4 or earlier, rarely goes sub-.500 in conference and when he does it's still respectable, finishes 4th or better 1 out of 2, and goes to the NCAA 1 out of 2 I think most will be over the moon and we should be because that will be the best success the program would have had since Carnesecca.

All Anderson has to do to accomplish that is not be worse here than he's been at his 3 prior HC jobs.
 
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I understand people feel that most overhype players.

But what is the opposite exactly? Saying he doesn't look good others would come crashing down calling the poster negative and this is just a 17 year old kid etc....

I guess there is the 3rd school of thought. Not following recruiting. But that's no fun.
 
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[quote="Moose" post=351282]I understand people feel that most overhype players.

But what is the opposite exactly? Saying he doesn't look good others would come crashing down calling the poster negative and this is just a 17 year old kid etc....

I guess there is the 3rd school of thought. Not following recruiting. But that's no fun.[/quote]

All good points. I really don't follow recruiting, and rarely post on those threads. I figure that there are a few important steps in evaluating a player: 1) his first OOC games 2) His first conference games 3) Remembering that no one is as good as he is when he is at his best, nor as bad as at his worst - the long haul counts.

In one season we praised and buried Clark to extremes, and most of the others who did well at points.
 
[quote="SJU1512" post=351280][quote="Beast of the East" post=351272]
All Anderson has to do to accomplish that is not be worse here than he's been at his 3 prior HC jobs.[/quote]

He will be better for sure. Almost would guarantee that. Whether that will be considered good enough over the long haul is questionable. Considering no one here has lasted more than 6 years, I hope he does better than that.
 
[quote="Beast of the East" post=351289][quote="SJU1512" post=351280][quote="Beast of the East" post=351272]
All Anderson has to do to accomplish that is not be worse here than he's been at his 3 prior HC jobs.[/quote]

He will be better for sure. Almost would guarantee that. Whether that will be considered good enough over the long haul is questionable. Considering no one here has lasted more than 6 years, I hope he does better than that.[/quote]

I agree and think CMA will as well. For someone with his particular experience I don't think this is going to be as much of a lift as some of his prior jobs. He doesn't strike me as the type to take anything for granted, but reality is this year to finish better than 5th in the SEC you had to be a Top 13 team in the country. This year in the Big East to finish better than 5th you had to be one game over .500 in a down conference.

Granted, the last two years have been mega steps forward for the SEC (which had been down) and this past year was a step back from what has been a strong Big East. But I think the point stands that on balance worrying about competing with Florida/Tenn/LSU/Auburn behind Kentucky is more daunting than worrying about Xavier/Marq/Prov/SHU behind Nova.
 
OK we are not preseason top 25. But do we need to turn yet another thread into a doubting CMA can get us there thread?
Can this guy finish his recruiting and see him meld his players before the first exhibition game?
 
[quote="Class of 72" post=351308]OK we are not preseason top 25. But do we need to turn yet another thread into a doubting CMA can get us there thread?
Can this guy finish his recruiting and see him meld his players before the first exhibition game?[/quote]
_______

WOW ... what a surprise that '72 would attempt to hijack a thread to a negative narrative. Shocking.
 
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[quote="otis" post=351316][quote="Class of 72" post=351308]OK we are not preseason top 25. But do we need to turn yet another thread into a doubting CMA can get us there thread?
Can this guy finish his recruiting and see him meld his players before the first exhibition game?[/quote]
_______

WOW ... what a surprise that '72 would attempt to hijack a thread to a negative narrative. Shocking.[/quote]

So NOW being optimistic and positive about our staff is a negative?:whistle:
So NOW responding in a thread is a hijack?
The thread is "preseason top 25".
I suspect some of you cabecazz here expected CMA to have landed 5 five star recruits by now.
Not sure who is negative here.....I'll let you be the judge Judge.
 
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[quote="Class of 72" post=351319][quote="otis" post=351316][quote="Class of 72" post=351308]OK we are not preseason top 25. But do we need to turn yet another thread into a doubting CMA can get us there thread?
Can this guy finish his recruiting and see him meld his players before the first exhibition game?[/quote]
_______

WOW ... what a surprise that '72 would attempt to hijack a thread to a negative narrative. Shocking.[/quote]

So NOW being optimistic and positive about our staff is a negative?:whistle:
So NOW responding in a thread is a hijack?
The thread is "preseason top 25".
I suspect some of you cabecazz here expected CMA to have landed 5 five star recruits by now.
Not sure who is negative here.....I'll let you be the judge Judge.[/quote]

It's almost like he only read your first line and predicted what the other lines would be. LOL
 
Rothstein version;

Big East Offseason Power Rankings for 19-20:

1. Villanova
2. Seton Hall
3. Georgetown
4. Providence
5. Xavier
6. Marquette
7. Creighton
8. St. John’s
9. Butler
10. DePaul
 
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