@Butler, Wed. Feb. 15, 8:30pm, FS1/570AM

Butler it seems plays a lot of close games & execution success down the stretch often is the difference maker. I suspect we will hang in there and we'll see who makes those key plays in last few minutes. I don't see them blowing us away early, so I feel we can compete & possibly steal this one.

Actually the remaining road game that I really like our chances in is Marquette, who does not defend or rebound well and when pressured turns the ball over a lot.
 
Hinkle has some home cooking going on but we've won there before. I hate that Butler is coming off a loss but I still think we win. I say that knowing full well that my picks have tended to go the other way wins or losse such as picking loss at home vs But
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Perhaps a canine "evil eye," directed at the Bulldogs, might improve our chances.
 
Least winnable to most winnable games the rest of the way in my view:

1. Creighton
2. Butler
3. Marquette
4. GTown
5. Providence

All are winnable but don't feel great about any either. Creighton just a bad matchup with their size and in that building. Really like Butler and Marquette matchups for us but tough spot having already beaten both teams and now getting them away. Tough enough to secure sweeps in this conference, tougher when the second leg is on the road. Don't like GTown matchup and they seem to have given us trouble in generally recently, but at home and maybe we are due. Providence seems like one of our more even matchups on paper, they continue to play tough almost every time out.

Would be very happy with 2-3, as I think 1-4 might be slightly more probable than 3-2 although I think both are possible.
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Lets make MSG a home court advantage, and beat G-Town and Pc, both who suck on the road.
Then just need 1 win on the road to go 9-9, that would be sick, just a year after going 1-17.

Lets do it.
 
Butler it seems plays a lot of close games & execution success down the stretch often is the difference maker. I suspect we will hang in there and we'll see who makes those key plays in last few minutes. I don't see them blowing us away early, so I feel we can compete & possibly steal this one.

Actually the remaining road game that I really like our chances in is Marquette, who does not defend or rebound well and when pressured turns the ball over a lot.
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In the game at CA we were the ones who executed down the stretch. If the game's tight I like our chances with LoVett and Ponds with the ball. Even so, a win at either Butler or Creighton would be a huge upset.
 
We're 10.5 point underdogs, so while that does seem too high don't go expecting a win.
 
We're 10.5 point underdogs, so while that does seem too high don't go expecting a win.
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after the super bowl betting catastrophe I swore I was done betting for the year but taking the points sounds enticing. I'm going to think hard on this one
 
I don't bet, so I really don't know this. Do you guys have "bookies" like in the old mob movies? Where does one go to place a bet? (And if this is info that is not supposed to be revealed---never mind.)
 
We're 10.5 point underdogs, so while that does seem too high don't go expecting a win.
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after the super bowl betting catastrophe I swore I was done betting for the year but taking the points sounds enticing. I'm going to think hard on this one
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I was definitely expecting about 7 and bet the line will come down.

I know what you mean though (I'm a Falcons fan too, so the Super Bowl was especially hard on me). Chances are we'll lose by 20+ then win the next 3. Impossible to predict with this team. :)
 
I don't bet, so I really don't know this. Do you guys have "bookies" like in the old mob movies? Where does one go to place a bet? (And if this is info that is not supposed to be revealed---never mind.)
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There are various websites that you can use to bet if you don't wanna go through a bookie. Just know that they are all internationally based websites and they can't always be trusted.
 
We're 10.5 point underdogs, so while that does seem too high don't go expecting a win.
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after the super bowl betting catastrophe I swore I was done betting for the year but taking the points sounds enticing. I'm going to think hard on this one
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If you bet against my Pats then you got what you deserved.

As for SJU hoops, I love the optimism, but suggest a little moderation. Agree that Butler is not an awful matchup for us athletically, but there's a reason they're ranked and we aren't. And they're at home. And I'm sure they aren't happy about having lost to us early in the season. No question we are better now than we were earlier, and if we can force 20 turnovers we should be in the game for a long time. Bottom line is I agree with Paultz, I think we will hang around and at the end of the game it's going to be a question of whether we hit a few big shots or they out-execute us. But I think Butler wins this one.

Disagree with Paul about Creighton being "not a bad matchup" for us. When we get someone who can play against Patton, let me know. And Huff isn't bad either. I think it will be a more competitive game than it was at Carnesecca because Creighton is down Watson and our team has come together, but again it's a road game at one of the tougher places to play in the league. I'd be surprised if it isn't a double-digit loss.

At Marquette, Providence, and Georgetown are all winnable, but I doubt we win all 3. If we win 2, I'll be happy.

OTOH, it could be a rewind of the beginning of the season, with a win over Butler opening possibilities that weren't there before. The upside of the season before the Butler win was 6-12. Butler moved that to 7-11. A second Butler win could move the needle to 9-9. That would be quite something.
 
Double digit spread not encouraging, but we were 8.5 dogs when we beat them at home and I think our lines have been off by 10 points or more 10 times now this season. Although to be fair 7 of those were in the 8 games between Del. St. and the first Butler matchup when we were particularly volatile. We seem to have leveled a bit, but were still pretty significant dogs @PC and got a W and were dogs v. Marq and got a resounding W.

Big key for me in the first game was striking right balance between solid, aggressive D and not taking risks that Butler turns into easy opportunities. Lewis and Baldwin were essentially non-factors largely because we just stayed in front of them. Lewis didn't turn it over at all and Baldwin only once, but they also didn't do much positive. That's about where I think you want to see them.

We also generally did a good job on their bigs despite a much bigger than typical game from Wideman. They seem like they might be near their best offensively when they are running their half-court through Chrabascz. Watched him eat up Seton Hall at Seton Hall late in a close game a few weeks ago. In the 2nd half of our first game we turned Chrabascz into a ball-handler in the open floor through our pressure on their guards, which seemed to keep them and him from getting into their offense.

Similar approach tonight, keeping Butler out of getting into a team rhythm, I think is big because if they can't do that I like the way we match up individually with them.
 
The book knows.....im convinced the refs play into the games. Im not saying the fix it, but they give the favorite a chance to win with their questionable calls. 10 plus dog means the book thinks we don't have a shot. They seem to know a lot more than us. Hope they are wrong since we are jelling nicely lately and want to continue this trend. I would be pumped if the team just continued to play good team basketball like the last couple of games. Win or lose that would carry us over to BE tourney and next year
 
The Honorable Kenpom gives Stjohn's a 13% chance of winning tonight predicting a final score of 81-69.
 
We're 10.5 point underdogs, so while that does seem too high don't go expecting a win.
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after the super bowl betting catastrophe I swore I was done betting for the year but taking the points sounds enticing. I'm going to think hard on this one
Click to expand...

I was definitely expecting about 7 and bet the line will come down.

I know what you mean though (I'm a Falcons fan too, so the Super Bowl was especially hard on me). Chances are we'll lose by 20+ then win the next 3. Impossible to predict with this team. :)
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Adam/MJMAHERJR
But remember
WE ARE A DIFFERENT AND BETTER TEAM THAN WE WERE A MONTH AGO!
Let's win (at least) 1 or 2 more!!!
:)
 
I usually look at the Pomeroy Rankings for a chance at a win. The difference is about +12 for Butler. Usually when you get an upset in a game with this difference it is at home. Our best chance for a road win in the final three is obviously against Marquette. Our best chance for wins are against Providence and Georgetown at home.
 
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