After the MU game, we have a 6 game stretch where 5 of them are home games, that is definitely gonna be our window to go into March as a hot team, but we have to win those home games.
Bubble Watch
- Thread starter Jack Williams
- Start date
postell25
Member
[quote="Adam" post=318408][quote="postell25" post=318407][quote="Adam" post=318275]Honestly it's hard to really care about the bubble (what other bubble teams are doing) at this point when we're a couple games under .500 and still have 11-14 games remaining.
We know what we need to do, and there are multiple scenarios to get there.
Either:
A. Go 9-9 in conference (or as some say, 10-8)
B. Upset Duke and go 8-10 in conference
C. Go 8-10 in conference and make it to the BET finals
D. Win the BET
Any of those scenarios likely get us in (some may disagree with me), but at this point the only thing that matters is that we start winning. It doesn't really matter what the other bubble teams do, we just need to put ourselves in a solid position by season's end first. Right now it is extremely questionable that we will even make it to the bubble.[/quote]
Only D is a realistic option. There is no way we get in with a .500 record or below with our NC. We need a legit run. You’re saying an 8-10 record would do it? That’s 5-5 in conference the rest of the way. That would far from do it.
It is hard to say all that in a vacuum not knowing who those wins are coming against but we need wins against Nova and Marquette. Meaningful games that with help our NET rankings and boost our Q1 win totals.
And we do need to care about what other teams on the bubble are doing. We need them to lose. For us to have any chance at all at an at-large birth we are going to need a pretty soft bubble. Just like we need to root for VCU and Georgia Tech to play well. It’s not just wins and losses. It’s all in service to the numbers in whatever formulas the selection committee look at[/quote]
I've talked about this plenty in the NET topic, but I disagree. 9-9 would get us in. We'd be within the top 50 NET (low to mid 40s) at that point, and as a major conference team that is 99% of the time a ticket to the dance. That's even factoring in a first round loss in the BET. I've done plenty of statistical analyses saying why 9-9 would get us in, but have yet to see any saying why it wouldn't. One simple argument: right now we are 2 games under .500 and #49 in NET. On Bracket Matrix 88/91 analysts have us "in" even though we are 2 games under .500. So it seems pretty clear to me that getting to .500 would essentially be a lock.
Honestly, I'd bet my Redmen account (I'd leave if wrong) that 9-9 in the Big East would get us into the Tournament. That is how confident I am. My only concern is actually getting to 9-9.[/quote]
The only way we would even be on the bubble with a 9-9 league record is if two more of those wins the rest of the way are against Nova and Marquette.
We know what we need to do, and there are multiple scenarios to get there.
Either:
A. Go 9-9 in conference (or as some say, 10-8)
B. Upset Duke and go 8-10 in conference
C. Go 8-10 in conference and make it to the BET finals
D. Win the BET
Any of those scenarios likely get us in (some may disagree with me), but at this point the only thing that matters is that we start winning. It doesn't really matter what the other bubble teams do, we just need to put ourselves in a solid position by season's end first. Right now it is extremely questionable that we will even make it to the bubble.[/quote]
Only D is a realistic option. There is no way we get in with a .500 record or below with our NC. We need a legit run. You’re saying an 8-10 record would do it? That’s 5-5 in conference the rest of the way. That would far from do it.
It is hard to say all that in a vacuum not knowing who those wins are coming against but we need wins against Nova and Marquette. Meaningful games that with help our NET rankings and boost our Q1 win totals.
And we do need to care about what other teams on the bubble are doing. We need them to lose. For us to have any chance at all at an at-large birth we are going to need a pretty soft bubble. Just like we need to root for VCU and Georgia Tech to play well. It’s not just wins and losses. It’s all in service to the numbers in whatever formulas the selection committee look at[/quote]
I've talked about this plenty in the NET topic, but I disagree. 9-9 would get us in. We'd be within the top 50 NET (low to mid 40s) at that point, and as a major conference team that is 99% of the time a ticket to the dance. That's even factoring in a first round loss in the BET. I've done plenty of statistical analyses saying why 9-9 would get us in, but have yet to see any saying why it wouldn't. One simple argument: right now we are 2 games under .500 and #49 in NET. On Bracket Matrix 88/91 analysts have us "in" even though we are 2 games under .500. So it seems pretty clear to me that getting to .500 would essentially be a lock.
Honestly, I'd bet my Redmen account (I'd leave if wrong) that 9-9 in the Big East would get us into the Tournament. That is how confident I am. My only concern is actually getting to 9-9.[/quote]
The only way we would even be on the bubble with a 9-9 league record is if two more of those wins the rest of the way are against Nova and Marquette.
[quote="Jack Williams" post=318433]After the MU game, we have a 6 game stretch where 5 of them are home games, that is definitely gonna be our window to go into March as a hot team, but we have to win those home games.[/quote]
I'm beginning to think that we'll be in such a tailspin at that point that it won't matter whether or not we're at home or on the road.
I'm beginning to think that we'll be in such a tailspin at that point that it won't matter whether or not we're at home or on the road.
[quote="weathermannyc" post=318428][quote="ron " post=318412]My only concern is actually getting to 9-9.[/quote]
Bingo.[/quote]
I was very concerned by the OOC schedule both before and during the early part of the season. While still weak, it has proven to be better than thought thus far. [/quote]
How so? Just because one poster points out every win from our pre-season victims?
I guess the fact that only one of the wins came against 300+ ranked teams is better than we anticipated. Again, I know RPI doesn't matter but right now only VCU (30) and Princeton (88) are top 100 wins in the OOC wins per the RPI, 6 of the teams are RPI 236 or worse. The three power conference teams they played are a combined 6-19 in conference and all at and least 2 games below .500 in conference. Only Bowling Green is showing to be close to a top 100 win.
Bingo.[/quote]
I was very concerned by the OOC schedule both before and during the early part of the season. While still weak, it has proven to be better than thought thus far. [/quote]
How so? Just because one poster points out every win from our pre-season victims?
I guess the fact that only one of the wins came against 300+ ranked teams is better than we anticipated. Again, I know RPI doesn't matter but right now only VCU (30) and Princeton (88) are top 100 wins in the OOC wins per the RPI, 6 of the teams are RPI 236 or worse. The three power conference teams they played are a combined 6-19 in conference and all at and least 2 games below .500 in conference. Only Bowling Green is showing to be close to a top 100 win.
[quote="austour" post=318608][quote="weathermannyc" post=318428][quote="ron " post=318412]My only concern is actually getting to 9-9.[/quote]
Bingo.[/quote]
I was very concerned by the OOC schedule both before and during the early part of the season. While still weak, it has proven to be better than thought thus far. [/quote]
How so? Just because one poster points out every win from our pre-season victims?
I guess the fact that only one of the wins came against 300+ ranked teams is better than we anticipated. Again, I know RPI doesn't matter but right now only VCU (30) and Princeton (88) are top 100 wins in the OOC wins per the RPI, 6 of the teams are RPI 236 or worse. The three power conference teams they played are a combined 6-19 in conference and all at and least 2 games below .500 in conference. Only Bowling Green is showing to be close to a top 100 win.[/quote]
They don't use the RPI anymore. They use something called the NET ratings.
The top 5 OOC games are:
Duke 3
VCU 53
Georgia Tech 95
@Rutgers 110
Bowling Green 129
This is still weak because of the number of Quad 4 games in a season where the conference games only provides a couple of Quad 1 opportunities. But, if you don't think that VCU, GT, Rutgers, Bowling Green and Priceton haven't all exceeded pre-season and early season expectations than I don't know what to say. Their performance allows us to look at our OOC schedule as poor instead of atrocious.
Bingo.[/quote]
I was very concerned by the OOC schedule both before and during the early part of the season. While still weak, it has proven to be better than thought thus far. [/quote]
How so? Just because one poster points out every win from our pre-season victims?
I guess the fact that only one of the wins came against 300+ ranked teams is better than we anticipated. Again, I know RPI doesn't matter but right now only VCU (30) and Princeton (88) are top 100 wins in the OOC wins per the RPI, 6 of the teams are RPI 236 or worse. The three power conference teams they played are a combined 6-19 in conference and all at and least 2 games below .500 in conference. Only Bowling Green is showing to be close to a top 100 win.[/quote]
They don't use the RPI anymore. They use something called the NET ratings.
The top 5 OOC games are:
Duke 3
VCU 53
Georgia Tech 95
@Rutgers 110
Bowling Green 129
This is still weak because of the number of Quad 4 games in a season where the conference games only provides a couple of Quad 1 opportunities. But, if you don't think that VCU, GT, Rutgers, Bowling Green and Priceton haven't all exceeded pre-season and early season expectations than I don't know what to say. Their performance allows us to look at our OOC schedule as poor instead of atrocious.
[quote="weathermannyc" post=319036][quote="austour" post=318608][quote="weathermannyc" post=318428][quote="ron " post=318412]My only concern is actually getting to 9-9.[/quote]
Bingo.[/quote]
I was very concerned by the OOC schedule both before and during the early part of the season. While still weak, it has proven to be better than thought thus far. [/quote]
How so? Just because one poster points out every win from our pre-season victims?
I guess the fact that only one of the wins came against 300+ ranked teams is better than we anticipated. Again, I know RPI doesn't matter but right now only VCU (30) and Princeton (88) are top 100 wins in the OOC wins per the RPI, 6 of the teams are RPI 236 or worse. The three power conference teams they played are a combined 6-19 in conference and all at and least 2 games below .500 in conference. Only Bowling Green is showing to be close to a top 100 win.[/quote]
They don't use the RPI anymore. They use something called the NET ratings.
The top 5 OOC games are:
Duke 3
VCU 53
Georgia Tech 95
@Rutgers 110
Bowling Green 129
This is still weak because of the number of Quad 4 games in a season where the conference games only provides a couple of Quad 1 opportunities. But, if you don't think that VCU, GT, Rutgers, Bowling Green and Priceton haven't all exceeded pre-season and early season expectations than I don't know what to say. Their performance allows us to look at our OOC schedule as poor instead of atrocious.[/quote]
IMHO Since DePaul is like 119 and BG is 129 I will count 4 of our OOC wins as equivalent of BE wins so our record in competitive games is 8-5 which is definite progress in year 4. Just need the arrow to remain pointing upward.
Bingo.[/quote]
I was very concerned by the OOC schedule both before and during the early part of the season. While still weak, it has proven to be better than thought thus far. [/quote]
How so? Just because one poster points out every win from our pre-season victims?
I guess the fact that only one of the wins came against 300+ ranked teams is better than we anticipated. Again, I know RPI doesn't matter but right now only VCU (30) and Princeton (88) are top 100 wins in the OOC wins per the RPI, 6 of the teams are RPI 236 or worse. The three power conference teams they played are a combined 6-19 in conference and all at and least 2 games below .500 in conference. Only Bowling Green is showing to be close to a top 100 win.[/quote]
They don't use the RPI anymore. They use something called the NET ratings.
The top 5 OOC games are:
Duke 3
VCU 53
Georgia Tech 95
@Rutgers 110
Bowling Green 129
This is still weak because of the number of Quad 4 games in a season where the conference games only provides a couple of Quad 1 opportunities. But, if you don't think that VCU, GT, Rutgers, Bowling Green and Priceton haven't all exceeded pre-season and early season expectations than I don't know what to say. Their performance allows us to look at our OOC schedule as poor instead of atrocious.[/quote]
IMHO Since DePaul is like 119 and BG is 129 I will count 4 of our OOC wins as equivalent of BE wins so our record in competitive games is 8-5 which is definite progress in year 4. Just need the arrow to remain pointing upward.
This is still weak because of the number of Quad 4 games in a season where the conference games only provides a couple of Quad 1 opportunities.
Not true. While we only have 2 home Q1 opportunities (Nova/Marq- top 30 teams), we have plenty of road Q1 opportunities. Those are top 75 teams.
Q1 Road BE games:
@ Marquette
@ Villanova
@ Butler
@ Creighton
@ Seton Hall
@ Providence
So out of our 18 Big East games, 8 are Q1. We picked up our second Big East Q1 win last night.
Not true. While we only have 2 home Q1 opportunities (Nova/Marq- top 30 teams), we have plenty of road Q1 opportunities. Those are top 75 teams.
Q1 Road BE games:
@ Marquette
@ Villanova
@ Butler
@ Creighton
@ Seton Hall
@ Providence
So out of our 18 Big East games, 8 are Q1. We picked up our second Big East Q1 win last night.
[quote="Adam" post=319052]This is still weak because of the number of Quad 4 games in a season where the conference games only provides a couple of Quad 1 opportunities.
Not true. While we only have 2 home Q1 opportunities (Nova/Marq- top 30 teams), we have plenty of road Q1 opportunities. Those are top 75 teams.
Q1 Road BE games:
@ Marquette
@ Villanova
@ Butler
@ Creighton
@ Seton Hall
@ Providence
So out of our 18 Big East games, 8 are Q1. We picked up our second Big East Q1 win last night.[/quote]
You are correct, few was not the best way to frame it. Less than normal would have been a better way to put it. 8 conf games with only 2 at home is weak compared to the Big 10, Big 12, ACC and SEC where almost all teams have at least 3 at home and at least 9 overall and quite a few have 4-5 opportunities at home and 10-12 overall.
This is an extreme example, but Indiana (12-9, 3-7) has already played 10 Q1 games. They still have 7 more before the conference tournament including 4 at home. I've been looking at the NET Team sheets and the only teams with less opportunities for Q1 wins than us are Pac12 teams and teams outside the power 6.
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/NET Team Sheets - Games through January 30,%202019.pdf
Not true. While we only have 2 home Q1 opportunities (Nova/Marq- top 30 teams), we have plenty of road Q1 opportunities. Those are top 75 teams.
Q1 Road BE games:
@ Marquette
@ Villanova
@ Butler
@ Creighton
@ Seton Hall
@ Providence
So out of our 18 Big East games, 8 are Q1. We picked up our second Big East Q1 win last night.[/quote]
You are correct, few was not the best way to frame it. Less than normal would have been a better way to put it. 8 conf games with only 2 at home is weak compared to the Big 10, Big 12, ACC and SEC where almost all teams have at least 3 at home and at least 9 overall and quite a few have 4-5 opportunities at home and 10-12 overall.
This is an extreme example, but Indiana (12-9, 3-7) has already played 10 Q1 games. They still have 7 more before the conference tournament including 4 at home. I've been looking at the NET Team sheets and the only teams with less opportunities for Q1 wins than us are Pac12 teams and teams outside the power 6.
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/NET Team Sheets - Games through January 30,%202019.pdf
Although the Big East last year was definitely better than this year, it's actually nearly identical when you go by Quad 1 opportunities.
RPI rankings last year:
#1 Villanova Q1 H&@
#4 Xavier Q1 H&@
#31 Seton Hall Q1 @
#37 Providence Q1 @
#40 Butler Q1 @
#51 Creighton Q1 @
#60 Marquette Q1 @
#92 St. John's
#166 Georgetown
#187 DePaul
Last year we had 9 Q1 opportunities, this year 8. That was in a Big East that was ranked around #2/3 of all conferences. The Big Ten and ACC are very strong this year, but that's not typical for power conferences. Also, those conferences have more teams and don't play everybody 2X. I'd say our 8 BE Q1 opportunities this year are about average for a power conference.
RPI rankings last year:
#1 Villanova Q1 H&@
#4 Xavier Q1 H&@
#31 Seton Hall Q1 @
#37 Providence Q1 @
#40 Butler Q1 @
#51 Creighton Q1 @
#60 Marquette Q1 @
#92 St. John's
#166 Georgetown
#187 DePaul
Last year we had 9 Q1 opportunities, this year 8. That was in a Big East that was ranked around #2/3 of all conferences. The Big Ten and ACC are very strong this year, but that's not typical for power conferences. Also, those conferences have more teams and don't play everybody 2X. I'd say our 8 BE Q1 opportunities this year are about average for a power conference.
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[quote="SJU61982" post=319092]https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1091063569117052929[/quote]
This is the same guy who said we needed 12 BE wins at the start of Big East play 3 weeks ago. He just revised down by 2 games. 9-9 gets us in, and we don't need to beat Duke or Marquette. 10-8 with a win against Duke or Marquette would obviously be a 100% lock. Pointless Tweet, has nothing to do with "the state of the Bubble" but rather his understanding of NET.
This is the same guy who said we needed 12 BE wins at the start of Big East play 3 weeks ago. He just revised down by 2 games. 9-9 gets us in, and we don't need to beat Duke or Marquette. 10-8 with a win against Duke or Marquette would obviously be a 100% lock. Pointless Tweet, has nothing to do with "the state of the Bubble" but rather his understanding of NET.
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[quote="Adam" post=319089]Although the Big East last year was definitely better than this year, it's actually nearly identical when you go by Quad 1 opportunities.
RPI rankings last year:
#1 Villanova Q1 H&@
#4 Xavier Q1 H&@
#31 Seton Hall Q1 @
#37 Providence Q1 @
#40 Butler Q1 @
#51 Creighton Q1 @
#60 Marquette Q1 @
#92 St. John's
#166 Georgetown
#187 DePaul
Last year we had 9 Q1 opportunities, this year 8. That was in a Big East that was ranked around #2/3 of all conferences. The Big Ten and ACC are very strong this year, but that's not typical for power conferences. Also, those conferences have more teams and don't play everybody 2X. I'd say our 8 BE Q1 opportunities this year are about average for a power conference.[/quote]
Good find. Nice research. The only thing I would point out is that last year at least 8 of the 9 were all very secure Q1 games. This year, I am still a bit worried that Creighton (62), Seton Hall (63) and certainly Providence (72) could drop below 75. Ironically, I am pissed that we don't get credit for a Q1 win at Seton Hall, when in fact, they might not wind up as a Q1 game.
My perception is that there are advantages to having a haves and have not league. You need strength and depth at the top. That helps build respect and prestige for the conference and creates resume building opportunities. But, it also helps to have a couple of tomato cans to take some of the pressure off the conference record.
RPI rankings last year:
#1 Villanova Q1 H&@
#4 Xavier Q1 H&@
#31 Seton Hall Q1 @
#37 Providence Q1 @
#40 Butler Q1 @
#51 Creighton Q1 @
#60 Marquette Q1 @
#92 St. John's
#166 Georgetown
#187 DePaul
Last year we had 9 Q1 opportunities, this year 8. That was in a Big East that was ranked around #2/3 of all conferences. The Big Ten and ACC are very strong this year, but that's not typical for power conferences. Also, those conferences have more teams and don't play everybody 2X. I'd say our 8 BE Q1 opportunities this year are about average for a power conference.[/quote]
Good find. Nice research. The only thing I would point out is that last year at least 8 of the 9 were all very secure Q1 games. This year, I am still a bit worried that Creighton (62), Seton Hall (63) and certainly Providence (72) could drop below 75. Ironically, I am pissed that we don't get credit for a Q1 win at Seton Hall, when in fact, they might not wind up as a Q1 game.
My perception is that there are advantages to having a haves and have not league. You need strength and depth at the top. That helps build respect and prestige for the conference and creates resume building opportunities. But, it also helps to have a couple of tomato cans to take some of the pressure off the conference record.