Bubble Watch

Jack Williams

Jack Williams

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2023 $upporter
Was really hoping this wouldn’t have to be a thread this year. Was hoping we’d just be a lock all season. Not the case.

Jerry Palm posted his new bracket this morning. We were a 7 seed in his last bracket, after the loss yesterday we are now a 9 seed. Trending the wrong direction. Creighton game is vital to stop the bleeding.

[URL]https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/[/URL]


Also bracket matrix, I’m pretty sure is a site that compiles all the brackets being made by experts and shows where we stand from a cumulative standpoint. This says we are in all brackets, and on average a 9 seed. It says it was last updated yesterday, don’t know if that was before or after the game though.

[URL]http://www.bracketmatrix.com[/URL]
 
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[quote="Jack Williams" post=318178]Was really hoping this wouldn’t have to be a thread this year. Was hoping we’d just be a lock all season. Not the case.

Jerry Palm posted his new bracket this morning. We were a 7 seed in his last bracket, after the loss yesterday we are now a 9 seed. Trending the wrong direction. Creighton game is vital to stop the bleeding.

[URL]https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/[/URL][/quote]


A truly incredible job by Chris Mullin and his staff to have us in a position to make the tournament in just his fourth season.

I think I speak for all St. John's fans when I say that the administration should immediately extend him for at least another four years.
 
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[quote="Marillac" post=318180][quote="Jack Williams" post=318178]Was really hoping this wouldn’t have to be a thread this year. Was hoping we’d just be a lock all season. Not the case.

Jerry Palm posted his new bracket this morning. We were a 7 seed in his last bracket, after the loss yesterday we are now a 9 seed. Trending the wrong direction. Creighton game is vital to stop the bleeding.

[URL]https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/[/URL][/quote]


A truly incredible job by Chris Mullin and his staff to have us in a position to make the tournament in just his fourth season.

I think I speak for all St. John's fans when I say that the administration should immediately extend him for at least another four years.[/quote]

Lol now that's the post of the year.
 
[quote="oldschool Redmen" post=318217][quote="Marillac" post=318180][quote="Jack Williams" post=318178]Was really hoping this wouldn’t have to be a thread this year. Was hoping we’d just be a lock all season. Not the case.

Jerry Palm posted his new bracket this morning. We were a 7 seed in his last bracket, after the loss yesterday we are now a 9 seed. Trending the wrong direction. Creighton game is vital to stop the bleeding.

[URL]https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/[/URL][/quote]


A truly incredible job by Chris Mullin and his staff to have us in a position to make the tournament in just his fourth season.

I think I speak for all St. John's fans when I say that the administration should immediately extend him for at least another four years.[/quote]

Lol now that's the post of the year.[/quote]

I feel like that is a word-for-word post from ages ago, except that Mullin's name has been swapped in for Norm's.
 
[quote="L J S A" post=318270][quote="oldschool Redmen" post=318217][quote="Marillac" post=318180][quote="Jack Williams" post=318178]Was really hoping this wouldn’t have to be a thread this year. Was hoping we’d just be a lock all season. Not the case.

Jerry Palm posted his new bracket this morning. We were a 7 seed in his last bracket, after the loss yesterday we are now a 9 seed. Trending the wrong direction. Creighton game is vital to stop the bleeding.

[URL]https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/[/URL][/quote]


A truly incredible job by Chris Mullin and his staff to have us in a position to make the tournament in just his fourth season.

I think I speak for all St. John's fans when I say that the administration should immediately extend him for at least another four years.[/quote]

Lol now that's the post of the year.[/quote]

I feel like that is a word-for-word post from ages ago, except that Mullin's name has been swapped in for Norm's.[/quote]

Hey LJSA did you get the memo Mikey Dixon transferred!!!! Are you keeping his picture as your avatar for old times sake! LOL!
 
Honestly it's hard to really care about the bubble (what other bubble teams are doing) at this point when we're a couple games under .500 and still have 11-14 games remaining.

We know what we need to do, and there are multiple scenarios to get there.

Either:
A. Go 9-9 in conference (or as some say, 10-8)
B. Upset Duke and go 8-10 in conference
C. Go 8-10 in conference and make it to the BET finals
D. Win the BET

Any of those scenarios likely get us in (some may disagree with me), but at this point the only thing that matters is that we start winning. It doesn't really matter what the other bubble teams do, we just need to put ourselves in a solid position by season's end first. Right now it is extremely questionable that we will even make it to the bubble.
 
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[quote="fordham96" post=318273]

Hey LJSA did you get the memo Mikey Dixon transferred!!!! Are you keeping his picture as your avatar for old times sake! LOL![/quote]

I'm going to put Williams' pic up there as soon as Mullin shakes things up a bit and starts him in place of Simon.
 
[quote="Adam" post=318275]Honestly it's hard to really care about the bubble (what other bubble teams are doing) at this point when we're a couple games under .500 and still have 11-14 games remaining.

We know what we need to do, and there are multiple scenarios to get there.

Either:
A. Go 9-9 in conference (or as some say, 10-8)
B. Upset Duke and go 8-10 in conference
C. Go 8-10 in conference and make it to the BET finals
D. Win the BET

Any of those scenarios likely get us in (some may disagree with me), but at this point the only thing that matters is that we start winning. It doesn't really matter what the other bubble teams do, we just need to put ourselves in a solid position by season's end first. Right now it is extremely questionable that we will even make it to the bubble.[/quote]

Last time we upset Duke and Villanova they were missing key players. Those two wins were rare exceptions to the Mullin track record against strong opponents. In Big East games he is barely winning 1 in 3 games over his career. If the past is a prologue to the rest of the season we will finish with 7 wins before the BE tournament. We don't have the horses to run in the race and the jockey has never ridden a winner.
That's the scenario I see.
 
[quote="SJU61982" post=318359]Lunardi, who has been the toughest on us of all the bracket guys, has us as an 11, and the last of the "bye teams.'

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

He only has 4 teams from the Big East, with one of them being the last bye (us), and Seton Hall as one of the "Last 4 in" (aka, a First Four team). Butler and Creighton are two of the "first four out."[/quote]

Baylor making a late push. Put a 30 point beatdown on Oklahoma last night in Norman. Lunardi has them in as a 10.
 
[quote="redken" post=318372]If we lose to Creighton, can someone rename this thread "NIT Bubble Watch"?[/quote]

If we lose the next three games we will be 1-8 over nine games. You can name the topic "bubble burst".
 
[quote="Adam" post=318275]Honestly it's hard to really care about the bubble (what other bubble teams are doing) at this point when we're a couple games under .500 and still have 11-14 games remaining.

We know what we need to do, and there are multiple scenarios to get there.

Either:
A. Go 9-9 in conference (or as some say, 10-8)
B. Upset Duke and go 8-10 in conference
C. Go 8-10 in conference and make it to the BET finals
D. Win the BET

Any of those scenarios likely get us in (some may disagree with me), but at this point the only thing that matters is that we start winning. It doesn't really matter what the other bubble teams do, we just need to put ourselves in a solid position by season's end first. Right now it is extremely questionable that we will even make it to the bubble.[/quote]

Only D is a realistic option. There is no way we get in with a .500 record or below with our NC. We need a legit run. You’re saying an 8-10 record would do it? That’s 5-5 in conference the rest of the way. That would far from do it.

It is hard to say all that in a vacuum not knowing who those wins are coming against but we need wins against Nova and Marquette. Meaningful games that with help our NET rankings and boost our Q1 win totals.

And we do need to care about what other teams on the bubble are doing. We need them to lose. For us to have any chance at all at an at-large birth we are going to need a pretty soft bubble. Just like we need to root for VCU and Georgia Tech to play well. It’s not just wins and losses. It’s all in service to the numbers in whatever formulas the selection committee look at
 
[quote="postell25" post=318407][quote="Adam" post=318275]Honestly it's hard to really care about the bubble (what other bubble teams are doing) at this point when we're a couple games under .500 and still have 11-14 games remaining.

We know what we need to do, and there are multiple scenarios to get there.

Either:
A. Go 9-9 in conference (or as some say, 10-8)
B. Upset Duke and go 8-10 in conference
C. Go 8-10 in conference and make it to the BET finals
D. Win the BET

Any of those scenarios likely get us in (some may disagree with me), but at this point the only thing that matters is that we start winning. It doesn't really matter what the other bubble teams do, we just need to put ourselves in a solid position by season's end first. Right now it is extremely questionable that we will even make it to the bubble.[/quote]

Only D is a realistic option. There is no way we get in with a .500 record or below with our NC. We need a legit run. You’re saying an 8-10 record would do it? That’s 5-5 in conference the rest of the way. That would far from do it.

It is hard to say all that in a vacuum not knowing who those wins are coming against but we need wins against Nova and Marquette. Meaningful games that with help our NET rankings and boost our Q1 win totals.

And we do need to care about what other teams on the bubble are doing. We need them to lose. For us to have any chance at all at an at-large birth we are going to need a pretty soft bubble. Just like we need to root for VCU and Georgia Tech to play well. It’s not just wins and losses. It’s all in service to the numbers in whatever formulas the selection committee look at[/quote]

I've talked about this plenty in the NET topic, but I disagree. 9-9 would get us in. We'd be within the top 50 NET (low to mid 40s) at that point, and as a major conference team that is 99% of the time a ticket to the dance. That's even factoring in a first round loss in the BET. I've done plenty of statistical analyses saying why 9-9 would get us in, but have yet to see any saying why it wouldn't. One simple argument: right now we are 2 games under .500 and #49 in NET. On Bracket Matrix 88/91 analysts have us "in" even though we are 2 games under .500. So it seems pretty clear to me that getting to .500 would essentially be a lock.

Honestly, I'd bet my Redmen account (I'd leave if wrong) that 9-9 in the Big East would get us into the Tournament. That is how confident I am. My only concern is actually getting to 9-9.
 
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I think 9 league wins will get a bid, certainly if SJU wins a big east tournament game. The fact that. SJU lost four out of five in the past three weeks and didn't drop out of the selections based on the so called expert opinions tells me our record will be better than the other bubble teams.
However winning six league games will not be easy.
 
[quote="Enright" post=318414]I think 9 league wins will get a bid, certainly if SJU wins a big east tournament game. The fact that. SJU lost four out of five in the past three weeks and didn't drop out of the selections based on the so called expert opinions tells me our record will be better than the other bubble teams.
However winning six league games will not be easy.[/quote]

My concern would be how often the bracketology experts nail the lower seeds, last major schools in, etc. I usually just give these things a quick glance most of the year, so I don't know how accurate they are with two months to go.

I think the committee very much wants to put players like Ponds in the Big Dance, but we need to make their decision as uncomplicated as possible.
 
[quote="L J S A" post=318417][quote="Enright" post=318414]I think 9 league wins will get a bid, certainly if SJU wins a big east tournament game. The fact that. SJU lost four out of five in the past three weeks and didn't drop out of the selections based on the so called expert opinions tells me our record will be better than the other bubble teams.
However winning six league games will not be easy.[/quote]

My concern would be how often the bracketology experts nail the lower seeds, last major schools in, etc. I usually just give these things a quick glance most of the year, so I don't know how accurate they are with two months to go.

I think the committee very much wants to put players like Ponds in the Big Dance, but we need to make their decision as uncomplicated as possible.[/quote]

If Syracuse is on the bubble, Lunardi will be wrong, whether he has them in or out. He's missed on them each of the last 3 years. He usually has a good track record, though.

Remember though, things can change, even in the last week. If Buffalo does not win the MAC Tournament, then that's one less bubble team that's going to get an invite, since they would be in as an at-large, along with the MAC Tournament champ.
 
[quote="ron " post=318412]My only concern is actually getting to 9-9.[/quote]

Bingo.[/quote]

I was very concerned by the OOC schedule both before and during the early part of the season. While still weak, it has proven to be better than thought thus far. Things can and do shift as the season progresses, but it does appear that 9-9 would likely lead to a bid. I did not think that possible until the past week or two. Our margin of error is now gone and we have to start winning some games soon.
 
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