It is shaping up to be a four bid conference--although three and five bids are still very possible. As I see it, six teams still have a reasonable shot at an NCAA berth: Nova and Creighton are both locks at #6 and #12 in the polls and #3 and #10 in the RPI, respectively. Xavier and Providence would be likely selections if the season ended today, and St. John's and Georgetown are the wildcards--both with excellent standing in all the metrics, but a lot of ground to make up. All four potential bubble teams have two remaining games against Nova and Creighton.
St. John's - I'll temper my excitement for St. John's somewhat until Creighton, but a win there and it's off to the races. A loss would really hurt. Assuming, for now, a win against Creighton, I think a reasonable end to the SJU season would be comfortable home wins against Butler, Xavier, and DePaul, with a let down game against SH or GTown. I think a loss would propel them to a victory over Nova and they cut through the last three games with ease, beating Marquette by double-digits on the road to close the season either 21-10 with top 35 rankings in RPI, SOS, BPI and KenPom or 20-11 with solid standings in those rankings. I expect a first round BET win which would ensure two RPI and SOS bolstering games against top 100 RPI schools on a neutral court. The biggest problem right now is there isn't a single big-time win on the resume. 21 wins is the magic #, and those that think we have to win the BET have nothing to back up that claim. Show me a team with 21+ wins--with top 40 RPI and SOS rankings--from a major conference that has been left out since the field expanded to 68.
Xavier - They have lost three in a row and suspended a player I thought really gave them an added dimension up front. They have gone from a near-lock to a team that looks likely to get passed over by St. John's and possibly Gtown. They took advantage of an easy schedule to start (first three and 4/5 conference games at home), but they have the most difficult remaining schedule of the four potential bubble teams, with 5/9 on the road and Creighton, Nova, and Providence at home. Losing to SH at home could prove to be devastating. They've gone from a top 35 RPI to 51 during their three game skid. 15-7, 5-4, #51 RPI. (@Gtown 2/22, @SJU 2/25).
Providence - In a slightly better position than Xavier after beating them at home 1/25. The rematch @Xavier this weekend has huge implications for the conference. A Providence win would put them in the driver's seat and make it very tough for them to be surpassed as the three seed, since they'd be 2-0 over Xavier and would have at least split with both SJU and Gtown. A Providence loss would open the door for SJU and Gtown to make a run at the three seed. 16-7, 6-4 , #50 RPI. (@Xavier 2/8, @Gtown 2/10).
Georgetown They looked like a tournament team early, then they were left for dead after a five game conference skid, and now the look alive and well after beating #7 Michigan State and then ending the conference skid against DePaul. They are solid in all the metrics and now have three quality non-conference wins (Kansas State, VCU, and Michigan State) with the #18 SOS in the country. Bad loss to #204 Northeastern and blowout losses to Kansas and Providence hurt, though. Gtown scares me the most, as we do not compare favorably at this point. Our best bet is a home win against Gtown and for them to lose another two or more games.
I think the best outcome would be an Xavier home win over Providence this weekend. Xavier has at leas three losses left after that and we get them at home at the end of the month.
St. John's - I'll temper my excitement for St. John's somewhat until Creighton, but a win there and it's off to the races. A loss would really hurt. Assuming, for now, a win against Creighton, I think a reasonable end to the SJU season would be comfortable home wins against Butler, Xavier, and DePaul, with a let down game against SH or GTown. I think a loss would propel them to a victory over Nova and they cut through the last three games with ease, beating Marquette by double-digits on the road to close the season either 21-10 with top 35 rankings in RPI, SOS, BPI and KenPom or 20-11 with solid standings in those rankings. I expect a first round BET win which would ensure two RPI and SOS bolstering games against top 100 RPI schools on a neutral court. The biggest problem right now is there isn't a single big-time win on the resume. 21 wins is the magic #, and those that think we have to win the BET have nothing to back up that claim. Show me a team with 21+ wins--with top 40 RPI and SOS rankings--from a major conference that has been left out since the field expanded to 68.
Xavier - They have lost three in a row and suspended a player I thought really gave them an added dimension up front. They have gone from a near-lock to a team that looks likely to get passed over by St. John's and possibly Gtown. They took advantage of an easy schedule to start (first three and 4/5 conference games at home), but they have the most difficult remaining schedule of the four potential bubble teams, with 5/9 on the road and Creighton, Nova, and Providence at home. Losing to SH at home could prove to be devastating. They've gone from a top 35 RPI to 51 during their three game skid. 15-7, 5-4, #51 RPI. (@Gtown 2/22, @SJU 2/25).
Providence - In a slightly better position than Xavier after beating them at home 1/25. The rematch @Xavier this weekend has huge implications for the conference. A Providence win would put them in the driver's seat and make it very tough for them to be surpassed as the three seed, since they'd be 2-0 over Xavier and would have at least split with both SJU and Gtown. A Providence loss would open the door for SJU and Gtown to make a run at the three seed. 16-7, 6-4 , #50 RPI. (@Xavier 2/8, @Gtown 2/10).
Georgetown They looked like a tournament team early, then they were left for dead after a five game conference skid, and now the look alive and well after beating #7 Michigan State and then ending the conference skid against DePaul. They are solid in all the metrics and now have three quality non-conference wins (Kansas State, VCU, and Michigan State) with the #18 SOS in the country. Bad loss to #204 Northeastern and blowout losses to Kansas and Providence hurt, though. Gtown scares me the most, as we do not compare favorably at this point. Our best bet is a home win against Gtown and for them to lose another two or more games.
I think the best outcome would be an Xavier home win over Providence this weekend. Xavier has at leas three losses left after that and we get them at home at the end of the month.
