I don’t think it’s apples to oranges since we potentially are looking at both to fill our PG vacancy.I think it is an apples to oranges thing. Wagner was the number 4 rated recruit in the 2023 class. He represents a high level of athleticism and talent. Playing his first two years at U.K. and Arkansas he has been successful, but not wildly so. Would he dominate the Ivys? Probably so. That said, he will need to continue to grow in order for him to be the point guard to lead us to the promised land. On the other hand at a lower level of play, at Princeton, Xaivian Lee has performed at a higher level than Wagner has. His assist to turnover ratio is much better and his three point shooting is also better than Wagner's. I have seen him play numerous times and he is pretty athletic, but moving up to better competition is always a concern and it would be somewhat unknowable of how much the higher level of competition would affect him.
If you wanted to look at a recent comparison of an Ivy point guard making the leap to a higher level, you might want to look at Michael Smith moving up from Columbia to Michigan for the 2020/2021 season. While his PPG dropped significantly from 22 to 9 after transferring to Michigan, he was actually much better with his assist to turnover ratio and 3 point shooting percentage as a Wolverine. Bottom line was that he was able to be Michigan's starting point guard. He led them to a number one seed that season. They advanced to the elite eight in the tournament, where they lost a two point heart breaker to UCLA. Overall I would say Smith was different, but still quite successful at the higher level.
As far as Smith to Michigan in 2020…Smith is more athletic than Lee, albeit smaller. Lee doesn’t look athletic at all. That’s the issue I have.
Smith’s 3 pt % rose because he took less than half the attempts. That’s a natural consequence off cleaning up your shot selection with a smaller role (and no double teams). His assists went up slightly because he wasn’t on a 6-win roster so he had some shot-makers to finish his passes.
I’d also add that the Ivy League Smith played in is not the same one we have now. The Ivy has been crushed like most mid-majors. The good juniors and seniors that were still largely playing when Smith was an upperclassman have transferred. Just look at last year alone…Danny Wolf transferred after his sophomore year, Malik Mack transferred after averaging 17.2 points as a freshman, and plenty of other all conference players with eligibility remaining. Also the Ivy doesn’t allow athletes to use the 5th year which put them at a considerable disadvantage the last few seasons.