Remaining schedules us and the rest of the pack

F

fan since 65

Well-known member
Since I'm retired and I need to keep the math portion of my brain working I decided to look at the remaining strength of schedules of the two 6-5 teams (Butler and X) and the three 5-6 teams (SJU, PC, Nova). As we all know, we have the easiest remaining schedule. Following are the teams and the BE winning percentage of the teams they are scheduled to play:

Butler 43.4%
PC 49.0%
Nova 51.5%
Xavier 41.8%
SJU 36.1%

Obviuously 4 games against 1-9 Georgetown and 0-11 DePaul help immensely. We have two wins against Nova (with the hardest remaining schedule and 5 road games left) and three home wins against X, Butler and PC. Some of these 5 teams will beat each other up but my brain is not sophisticated enough to work out all those permutations.We also have 5 road games left but two are against our sister school and the DC team.

So all that work came up with this amazing observation: win out against DePaul and Georgetown, win the other two home games (because winning one of the other three remaining road games will be a tad difficult. It's all something we knew but I didn't realize our remaining SOS was quite lower than the comp. (Of course, I hope we don't need to rely on a different SOS from the NCAA at the end of the year.)

I will be keeping my phone on high alert to see if Christopher Nolan will be calling in case he needs a followup to Oppenheimer... :)

(Anybody is welcome to check my math but no co-credits on the the movie.)
 
fan since 65 said:
Since I'm retired and I need to keep the math portion of my brain working I decided to look at the remaining strength of schedules of the two 6-5 teams (Butler and X) and the three 5-6 teams (SJU, PC, Nova). As we all know, we have the easiest remaining schedule. Following are the teams and the BE winning percentage of the teams they are scheduled to play:

Butler 43.4%
PC 49.0%
Nova 51.5%
Xavier 41.8%
SJU 36.1%

Obviuously 4 games against 1-9 Georgetown and 0-11 DePaul help immensely. We have two wins against Nova (with the hardest remaining schedule and 5 road games left) and three home wins against X, Butler and PC. Some of these 5 teams will beat each other up but my brain is not sophisticated enough to work out all those permutations.We also have 5 road games left but two are against our sister school and the DC team.

So all that work came up with this amazing observation: win out against DePaul and Georgetown, win the other two home games (because winning one of the other three remaining road games will be a tad difficult. It's all something we knew but I didn't realize our remaining SOS was quite lower than the comp. (Of course, I hope we don't need to rely on a different SOS from the NCAA at the end of the year.)

I will be keeping my phone on high alert to see if Christopher Nolan will be calling in case he needs a followup to Oppenheimer... :)

(Anybody is welcome to check my math but no co-credits on the the movie.)
Click to expand...
Can’t do link, but Zach has a detailed piece in this morning’s NY Post detailing 3 experts’ opinions on our current tournament chances.

Consensus, sweep DePaul and GT and win at least 2 of Marquette, Prov, Butler, the Hall, Creighton and we’re in (although 3 of those 5 would have us all way more relaxed.)
 
lycidas said:
Can’t do link, but Zach has a detailed piece in this morning’s NY Post detailing 3 experts’ opinions on our current tournament chances.

Consensus, sweep DePaul and GT and win at least 2 of Marquette, Prov, Butler, the Hall, Creighton and we’re in (although 3 of those 5 would have us all way more relaxed.)
Click to expand...
(And Nova’s getting hot and making the tourney would also help us a lot.)
 
fan since 65 said:
Since I'm retired and I need to keep the math portion of my brain working I decided to look at the remaining strength of schedules of the two 6-5 teams (Butler and X) and the three 5-6 teams (SJU, PC, Nova). As we all know, we have the easiest remaining schedule. Following are the teams and the BE winning percentage of the teams they are scheduled to play:

Butler 43.4%
PC 49.0%
Nova 51.5%
Xavier 41.8%
SJU 36.1%

Obviuously 4 games against 1-9 Georgetown and 0-11 DePaul help immensely. We have two wins against Nova (with the hardest remaining schedule and 5 road games left) and three home wins against X, Butler and PC. Some of these 5 teams will beat each other up but my brain is not sophisticated enough to work out all those permutations.We also have 5 road games left but two are against our sister school and the DC team.

So all that work came up with this amazing observation: win out against DePaul and Georgetown, win the other two home games (because winning one of the other three remaining road games will be a tad difficult. It's all something we knew but I didn't realize our remaining SOS was quite lower than the comp. (Of course, I hope we don't need to rely on a different SOS from the NCAA at the end of the year.)

I will be keeping my phone on high alert to see if Christopher Nolan will be calling in case he needs a followup to Oppenheimer... :)

(Anybody is welcome to check my math but no co-credits on the the movie.)
Click to expand...
All this analysis is great and would be totally an accurate predictor if our team came to play every night. But they dont , therefore they are capable of losing to DePaul and Georgetown, as well as winning out against Butler, Marquette, Creighton, Providence, and Seton Hall! We shall see! If i was a betting man i wouldnt bet on these games haha based on their past performances!
 
lycidas said:
Can’t do link, but Zach has a detailed piece in this morning’s NY Post detailing 3 experts’ opinions on our current tournament chances.

Consensus, sweep DePaul and GT and win at least 2 of Marquette, Prov, Butler, the Hall, Creighton and we’re in (although 3 of those 5 would have us all way more relaxed.)
Click to expand...
Good luck with 11 wins getting us in.
Hope you're right.

Plus one slip up vs Depaul and G-Town and we're in big trouble.
 
Redzing1969 said:
All this analysis is great and would be totally an accurate predictor if our team came to play every night. But they dont , therefore they are capable of losing to DePaul and Georgetown, as well as winning out against Butler, Marquette, Creighton, Providence, and Seton Hall! We shall see! If i was a betting man i wouldnt bet on these games haha based on their past performances!
Click to expand...
True and if you can't beat those two twive you don't deserve to be a tournament team.
 
If we don't have a slip up vs g-town and depaul that's 9 wins. Hoping for atleast a split @ marq & PC but that's unlikely.

That leaves @ Butler, and vs. shu & Creighton.

I think they are pissed about what happened @ shu and will want payback. Can they win the other 2? No clue at all.

For the 11 wins people, there's some room, just split the creighton and Butler.

It's going to be an interesting finish.

If you want to get into the Tournament then you better come even harder then you have.
 
While we finish the year with a healthy dose of Georgetown and DePaul we also only have 3 home games left the rest of the year. Kind of crazy.
 
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