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KenPom: Who will be the last remaining unbeaten team?
By Ken Pomeroy / The ATHLETIC
On Sunday, Gonzaga became the 344th team to suffer its first loss of the season. That means we’re getting to the point where we should seriously consider which team will be the last to remain unbeaten. It’s an honor that will briefly make one team feel as if it’s on top of the world. It’s also one that that tends to get forgotten rather quickly. You may recall that Arizona State was the last team to take a loss last season. Then again, if you didn’t, it’s hardly reason to take your fan card away. The Sun Devils held the honor for about five hours on Dec. 30 before they lost to Arizona, becoming the first last-unbeaten to take a loss before the New Year in college hoops history.
With that event in mind, we can’t wait any longer to speculate on who will be the last unbeaten this season. That team could be crowned before we expect it. But when should we expect it? Last season in this spot, we simulated the season 10,000 times and determined that Dec. 30 was the most likely date for one unbeaten to remain, though the computer thought Villanova was the most likely team to claim that honor. (Hours below Arizona State went down, the Wildcats lost for the first time, at Butler.)
So let’s simulate the season again and see what might be in store. Here are the chances that each of the remaining nine unbeatens is the last team standing.
1.Nevada (42.7 percent). It’s no secret that a long unbeaten run requires two ingredients: a great team and a weak schedule. Nevada is in position to benefit from both. The Wolf Pack will be a significant favorite in every game the rest of the regular season. Their toughest road tests in conference play will be against Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State, and Nevada doesn’t face the last two until late in the season. But you can’t take any conference game for granted. (Except against San Jose State. Feel free to take that one for granted.) So it’s still very unlikely that Nevada can get to the Mountain West tournament undefeated.
2. Michigan (27.2 percent). Even before Gonzaga’s loss, the Wolverines had the second-best chance to be the last unbeaten. That’s mainly because their next three games are tuneups before the resumption of Big Ten play. So Michigan is essentially guaranteed to enter the New Year unbeaten. And its early conference schedule is kind until a Jan. 19 showdown at Wisconsin.
3. Virginia (11.2 percent). The Cavaliers are 40-3 dating to the start of last season, so we shouldn’t be surprised if they keep their undefeated run going a bit longer. Still, starting point guard and defensive pest Kihei Clark is going to miss time after undergoing surgery for a broken wrist on Monday. That presumably won’t be a lengthy absence, since he was able to play through the pain against VCU on Sunday. But Virginia needs Clark for the beginning of the ACC schedule because it’s not too friendly. Near certain doom awaits on Jan. 19 when the Cavs travel to Duke, and almost all scenarios involving UVa as the final unbeaten are the result of its crown being secured before this game.
4. Kansas (8.2 percent). The Jayhawks have had plenty of scares already, winning in overtime against Stanford and Tennessee and rallying for a three-point victory against New Mexico State. But it’s worth noting their 8-0 record has come against one of the toughest schedules in the country. And they still have to win a home game against Villanova and at Arizona State to enter Big 12 play unbeaten.
5. Houston (5.1 percent). Here’s a darkhorse to get behind. The Cougars will play each of their next seven games in the freshly remodeled Fertitta Center. It’s not a slate of pushovers, mind you, with LSU, Saint Louis, Utah State and Memphis among the teams visiting Houston during that stretch. But the Cougars will be favored in each of those games, and the American Athletic Conference schedule is conveniently backloaded to facilitate a deep unbeaten run.
6. Buffalo (2.3 percent). The Bulls have a better chance to finish the regular season unbeaten than every team on this list except for Nevada. However, their biggest tests are just a few days away with games at Syracuse on Dec. 18 and at Marquette on Dec. 21. In the unlikely event they win both of those, their chances of being the last unbeaten will skyrocket.
7. Texas Tech (2.0 percent). Like Kansas, the Red Raiders play in the Big 12. You may have known this. You probably also know that the Big 12 is not a hospitable environment for a long unbeaten run. Furthermore, Tech has a Dec. 20 date with Duke at Madison Square Garden before conference play even begins.
8. Furman (0.7 percent). The Paladins have one more serious nonconference test, at LSU on Dec. 21. And they play in the Southern Conference, so maybe you’d think they are an upset in Baton Rouge away from a long run. Well, not so fast. The SoCon is better than you probably think. The league champ hasn’t been seeded lower than 13th in the last four years of the NCAA Tournament, and the conference this year might be stronger than in any of those seasons. With UNC Greensboro and Wofford lurking, Furman probably isn’t even the favorite to win the league.
9. St. John’s (0.7 percent). Furman was the last unbeaten in 69 simulations, and the Red Storm took the honor in 67 cases. That’s close enough for a tie in my book. The Red Storm have played one true road game, and that was against Big Ten doormat Rutgers. But you can’t hide from road games in conference play, and three of the Red Storm’s first four Big East gaems will be away from home, culminating with a Jan. 8 tilt at Villanova. The teams on this list will almost surely have to get past that day to have a chance at the last unbeaten title, and that will be a difficult task for the Johnnies.
There is a 0.1 percent chance that the last unbeaten will go down during tourney time. Seven of the simulations ended with at least two teams undefeated at the end of the regular season. In each case, Nevada was one of them. The other team was Michigan (three times), Buffalo (three), and Virginia (one). That would be a fun story, although Virginia sweeping Duke to get there would be a bigger story in my book.
Unlike last season, the unbeaten chase figures to last a while. There’s essentially no chance the last unbeaten loses before the New Year, and it’s very likely multiple unbeatens survive to at least that point. According to the simulations, the most likely day for the last unbeaten to be crowned is Jan. 19. And the most likely scenario is a Michigan loss at Wisconsin in a noon ET tip, leaving Nevada as the last team standing.
By Ken Pomeroy / The ATHLETIC
On Sunday, Gonzaga became the 344th team to suffer its first loss of the season. That means we’re getting to the point where we should seriously consider which team will be the last to remain unbeaten. It’s an honor that will briefly make one team feel as if it’s on top of the world. It’s also one that that tends to get forgotten rather quickly. You may recall that Arizona State was the last team to take a loss last season. Then again, if you didn’t, it’s hardly reason to take your fan card away. The Sun Devils held the honor for about five hours on Dec. 30 before they lost to Arizona, becoming the first last-unbeaten to take a loss before the New Year in college hoops history.
With that event in mind, we can’t wait any longer to speculate on who will be the last unbeaten this season. That team could be crowned before we expect it. But when should we expect it? Last season in this spot, we simulated the season 10,000 times and determined that Dec. 30 was the most likely date for one unbeaten to remain, though the computer thought Villanova was the most likely team to claim that honor. (Hours below Arizona State went down, the Wildcats lost for the first time, at Butler.)
So let’s simulate the season again and see what might be in store. Here are the chances that each of the remaining nine unbeatens is the last team standing.
1.Nevada (42.7 percent). It’s no secret that a long unbeaten run requires two ingredients: a great team and a weak schedule. Nevada is in position to benefit from both. The Wolf Pack will be a significant favorite in every game the rest of the regular season. Their toughest road tests in conference play will be against Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State, and Nevada doesn’t face the last two until late in the season. But you can’t take any conference game for granted. (Except against San Jose State. Feel free to take that one for granted.) So it’s still very unlikely that Nevada can get to the Mountain West tournament undefeated.
2. Michigan (27.2 percent). Even before Gonzaga’s loss, the Wolverines had the second-best chance to be the last unbeaten. That’s mainly because their next three games are tuneups before the resumption of Big Ten play. So Michigan is essentially guaranteed to enter the New Year unbeaten. And its early conference schedule is kind until a Jan. 19 showdown at Wisconsin.
3. Virginia (11.2 percent). The Cavaliers are 40-3 dating to the start of last season, so we shouldn’t be surprised if they keep their undefeated run going a bit longer. Still, starting point guard and defensive pest Kihei Clark is going to miss time after undergoing surgery for a broken wrist on Monday. That presumably won’t be a lengthy absence, since he was able to play through the pain against VCU on Sunday. But Virginia needs Clark for the beginning of the ACC schedule because it’s not too friendly. Near certain doom awaits on Jan. 19 when the Cavs travel to Duke, and almost all scenarios involving UVa as the final unbeaten are the result of its crown being secured before this game.
4. Kansas (8.2 percent). The Jayhawks have had plenty of scares already, winning in overtime against Stanford and Tennessee and rallying for a three-point victory against New Mexico State. But it’s worth noting their 8-0 record has come against one of the toughest schedules in the country. And they still have to win a home game against Villanova and at Arizona State to enter Big 12 play unbeaten.
5. Houston (5.1 percent). Here’s a darkhorse to get behind. The Cougars will play each of their next seven games in the freshly remodeled Fertitta Center. It’s not a slate of pushovers, mind you, with LSU, Saint Louis, Utah State and Memphis among the teams visiting Houston during that stretch. But the Cougars will be favored in each of those games, and the American Athletic Conference schedule is conveniently backloaded to facilitate a deep unbeaten run.
6. Buffalo (2.3 percent). The Bulls have a better chance to finish the regular season unbeaten than every team on this list except for Nevada. However, their biggest tests are just a few days away with games at Syracuse on Dec. 18 and at Marquette on Dec. 21. In the unlikely event they win both of those, their chances of being the last unbeaten will skyrocket.
7. Texas Tech (2.0 percent). Like Kansas, the Red Raiders play in the Big 12. You may have known this. You probably also know that the Big 12 is not a hospitable environment for a long unbeaten run. Furthermore, Tech has a Dec. 20 date with Duke at Madison Square Garden before conference play even begins.
8. Furman (0.7 percent). The Paladins have one more serious nonconference test, at LSU on Dec. 21. And they play in the Southern Conference, so maybe you’d think they are an upset in Baton Rouge away from a long run. Well, not so fast. The SoCon is better than you probably think. The league champ hasn’t been seeded lower than 13th in the last four years of the NCAA Tournament, and the conference this year might be stronger than in any of those seasons. With UNC Greensboro and Wofford lurking, Furman probably isn’t even the favorite to win the league.
9. St. John’s (0.7 percent). Furman was the last unbeaten in 69 simulations, and the Red Storm took the honor in 67 cases. That’s close enough for a tie in my book. The Red Storm have played one true road game, and that was against Big Ten doormat Rutgers. But you can’t hide from road games in conference play, and three of the Red Storm’s first four Big East gaems will be away from home, culminating with a Jan. 8 tilt at Villanova. The teams on this list will almost surely have to get past that day to have a chance at the last unbeaten title, and that will be a difficult task for the Johnnies.
There is a 0.1 percent chance that the last unbeaten will go down during tourney time. Seven of the simulations ended with at least two teams undefeated at the end of the regular season. In each case, Nevada was one of them. The other team was Michigan (three times), Buffalo (three), and Virginia (one). That would be a fun story, although Virginia sweeping Duke to get there would be a bigger story in my book.
Unlike last season, the unbeaten chase figures to last a while. There’s essentially no chance the last unbeaten loses before the New Year, and it’s very likely multiple unbeatens survive to at least that point. According to the simulations, the most likely day for the last unbeaten to be crowned is Jan. 19. And the most likely scenario is a Michigan loss at Wisconsin in a noon ET tip, leaving Nevada as the last team standing.
