What did we expect?

R

RedmanMike

Well-known member
It occurs to me that the roster churn we have experienced these part two off-seasons is becoming very common, and should be expected at all but the upper-echelon programs. In retrospect it was predictable and not at all surprising.

There is very little stability - and a premium is placed on immediate gratification and not long-term commitment and growth.

Players routinely change high schools and AAU programs multiple times. Several years ago, that would have been a red flag - today it is expected. It is standard operating procedure.

How many high schools did Lovett go to? He moved from one to the other year to year. Are we surprised that he moved on from St. John's in less than two years? He's probably making a mistake by leaving St. John's, but he's left everywhere else he's been.

Owens just transferred - for the second time. Are we at all surprised that - after he didn't find Tennessee to his liking - that he (and his dad) came to the same conclusion about St. John's? So now he'll try his luck at a third school in a third major conference. We'll see how it goes. I suspect he will have a marginal impact - and that he would have done better to stay with us. I have no idea how many high schools Owens went to, but I bet it was more than one...

We discuss the possibility of Trimble transferring. I have no idea if there is any validity to it, but none of us should be surprised if he does move on. Remember, he came to us after reneging on a commitment to Florida State.

The Euro kids were never going to be here for four years - it's a business deal for them. They are working on their game in the US until they can get picked up by a better pro team back in Europe. Mussini left after two years and the German kid after one. Neither is a surprise.

Yakwe is a different story. He came here and was loyal, but ultimately he was a mid-major player whose flaws were exposed over time. I feel badly for him and hope he catches on somewhere in the MAAC or the America East and has a great year.

We took chances on these kids - and we had to know that based on their history, many of them were not going to stick it out if they faced even a little adversity. The fact is that these kids basically act like free agents on one year contracts - if the situation they are in doesn't seem to be working out, then they go somewhere else.

So we and many other programs - even good ones - experience roster churn basically every year. It didn't used to be that way, but it is that way now. Until we improve dramatically we need to play the game, and that means taking chances on some kids who are moving on from somewhere else. When we do that, we need to realize that at some point they may choose to move on from us as well.
 
Just because Tariq left a school as they changed coaches, I don't think that means he had a reputation where he was bound to bail on us. And i didn't think he would, he got a lot of playing time here, and was a given an opportunity to succeed.

I guess I understand his decision to leave, I just wish he was not so disrespectful on his way out
 
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[quote="RedmanMike" post=280444]It occurs to me that the roster churn we have experienced these part two off-seasons is becoming very common, and should be expected at all but the upper-echelon programs. In retrospect it was predictable and not at all surprising.

There is very little stability - and a premium is placed on immediate gratification and not long-term commitment and growth.

Players routinely change high schools and AAU programs multiple times. Several years ago, that would have been a red flag - today it is expected. It is standard operating procedure.

How many high schools did Lovett go to? He moved from one to the other year to year. Are we surprised that he moved on from St. John's in less than two years? He's probably making a mistake by leaving St. John's, but he's left everywhere else he's been.

Owens just transferred - for the second time. Are we at all surprised that - after he didn't find Tennessee to his liking - that he (and his dad) came to the same conclusion about St. John's? So now he'll try his luck at a third school in a third major conference. We'll see how it goes. I suspect he will have a marginal impact - and that he would have done better to stay with us. I have no idea how many high schools Owens went to, but I bet it was more than one...

We discuss the possibility of Trimble transferring. I have no idea if there is any validity to it, but none of us should be surprised if he does move on. Remember, he came to us after reneging on a commitment to Florida State.

The Euro kids were never going to be here for four years - it's a business deal for them. They are working on their game in the US until they can get picked up by a better pro team back in Europe. Mussini left after two years and the German kid after one. Neither is a surprise.

Yakwe is a different story. He came here and was loyal, but ultimately he was a mid-major player whose flaws were exposed over time. I feel badly for him and hope he catches on somewhere in the MAAC or the America East and has a great year.

We took chances on these kids - and we had to know that based on their history, many of them were not going to stick it out if they faced even a little adversity. The fact is that these kids basically act like free agents on one year contracts - if the situation they are in doesn't seem to be working out, then they go somewhere else.

So we and many other programs - even good ones - experience roster churn basically every year. It didn't used to be that way, but it is that way now. Until we improve dramatically we need to play the game, and that means taking chances on some kids who are moving on from somewhere else. When we do that, we need to realize that at some point they may choose to move on from us as well.[/quote]

Agree to an extent, but I think our situation is different. Players are leaving because they don't have faith in the staff as coaches or developers and because we don't win. If you're constantly promised tomorrow but tomorrow never comes, you're going to get tired of it, especially seeing that other programs actually follow through on the hype and succeed. I think our coaches really try hard but it's crystal clear it's not working in the current configuration. It says a lot about the incompetency of a program when it's clear changes must (not possibly) be made and they are not.

Is there more roster turnover overall in hoops? Yes. Are kids acting more like free agents now? Yes. But IMO it's about our inability to coach, develop, and win...not kids just packing up and leaving just to leave. If we were a winning program in and out of the top 25 and making tourneys regularly and developing players, we would 100% not be losing all these guys. I can try as hard as I can and train my entire life to beat Usain Bolt in the 100m dash, but I will not win. Not for a lack of effort, but because I don't have his abilities. Our coaching staff just does not have the ability to win consistently, plain and simple. Yet, we keep them and sounds like no changes will be made...again.
 
Redman Mike is right on with his comments re transferring. I would just add one thing about to his points. If you recruit a player like Williams who has risen to a four rating recently and don't play him for say ten minutes a game he will leave next year.
I hope the staff takes this in consideration if it signs any transfers it now brings in.
 
[quote="Jack Williams" post=280446]Just because Tariq left a school as they changed coaches, I don't think that means he had a reputation where he was bound to bail on us. And i didn't think he would, he got a lot of playing time here, and was a given an opportunity to succeed.

I guess I understand his decision to leave, I just wish he was not so disrespectful on his way out[/quote]

Jack, you always write well thought out, balanced posts. Good to see you posting here a little more regularly. I doubted you would actually ever come to St. John's, happy you did, and hope it is working out for you.
 
I think one of the problems stems from their recruitment. They've been told their whole lives how special they are and how they fit in our system and will immediately get plenty of playing time. Then, they get here and don't measure up, or work hard enough to improve their games and their playing time or involvement in plays diminishes. Their development slows or ends and they point the finger at the coaches, rightly or not.
 
We expect players to leave. No brainer. But we expect competent evaluation of replacements and active recruitment on the part of coaches and not some used car salesman approach of following the tweets of dissatisfied players without having had a relationship with that player before.
Mullin’s management style is more hands off than Lavin and his insecurity of being outcoached by a real experienced assistant is a possible reason for his intransigent attitude. The three amigos running the show came in knowing nada about coaching or recruiting and a strong A.D. would have had a few conversations with him by now. I don't think for a second that Slice still being on payroll has any influence in the matter. If that were the case and President Bobby Bean Counter rather gamble on 6 years of mediocrity rather than a profitable basketball program he should precede Mullin out the door.
 
It almost felt like we got ahead of ourselves at the end of last year and were quick to nudge guys out assuming better was coming in.

One example, and I know he was infuriating at times, was Malik Ellison. I think we could have found minutes for him this year, even with Lovett playing. Think he would have been a nice piece as an upperclassman.
 
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[quote="JohnnyFan" post=280568]It almost felt like we got ahead of ourselves at the end of last year and were quick to nudge guys out assuming better was coming in.

One example, and I know he was infuriating at times, was Malik Ellison. I think we could have found minutes for him this year, even with Lovett playing. Think he would have been a nice piece as an upperclassman.[/quote]
Think he might agree with you in retrospect.
 
Players will transfer every year as they should. Schools invest very little in them and it's important for players to try to monetize their value as much as possible. The difference is every other program seems to realize there will be transfers and recruit accordingly.

We seem to run players out of the program with no thought on how to replace them until it is too late.
 
[quote="RedStormRising2" post=280600]Players will transfer every year as they should. Schools invest very little in them and it's important for players to try to monetize their value as much as possible. The difference is every other program seems to realize there will be transfers and recruit accordingly.

We seem to run players out of the program with no thought on how to replace them until it is too late.[/quote] Truth be told we only lost 2 transfers this year which isn’t bad considering the current landscape. I think the problem is we have missed on many or our primary targets. That is what causes us to scramble at the end. Certainly getting the other coaches more involved in recruiting To help Matt or getting another recruiter will help.
 
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[quote="Mike Zaun" post=280447][quote="RedmanMike" post=280444]It occurs to me that the roster churn we have experienced these part two off-seasons is becoming very common, and should be expected at all but the upper-echelon programs. In retrospect it was predictable and not at all surprising.

There is very little stability - and a premium is placed on immediate gratification and not long-term commitment and growth.

Players routinely change high schools and AAU programs multiple times. Several years ago, that would have been a red flag - today it is expected. It is standard operating procedure.

How many high schools did Lovett go to? He moved from one to the other year to year. Are we surprised that he moved on from St. John's in less than two years? He's probably making a mistake by leaving St. John's, but he's left everywhere else he's been.

Owens just transferred - for the second time. Are we at all surprised that - after he didn't find Tennessee to his liking - that he (and his dad) came to the same conclusion about St. John's? So now he'll try his luck at a third school in a third major conference. We'll see how it goes. I suspect he will have a marginal impact - and that he would have done better to stay with us. I have no idea how many high schools Owens went to, but I bet it was more than one...

We discuss the possibility of Trimble transferring. I have no idea if there is any validity to it, but none of us should be surprised if he does move on. Remember, he came to us after reneging on a commitment to Florida State.

The Euro kids were never going to be here for four years - it's a business deal for them. They are working on their game in the US until they can get picked up by a better pro team back in Europe. Mussini left after two years and the German kid after one. Neither is a surprise.

Yakwe is a different story. He came here and was loyal, but ultimately he was a mid-major player whose flaws were exposed over time. I feel badly for him and hope he catches on somewhere in the MAAC or the America East and has a great year.

We took chances on these kids - and we had to know that based on their history, many of them were not going to stick it out if they faced even a little adversity. The fact is that these kids basically act like free agents on one year contracts - if the situation they are in doesn't seem to be working out, then they go somewhere else.

So we and many other programs - even good ones - experience roster churn basically every year. It didn't used to be that way, but it is that way now. Until we improve dramatically we need to play the game, and that means taking chances on some kids who are moving on from somewhere else. When we do that, we need to realize that at some point they may choose to move on from us as well.[/quote]

Agree to an extent, but I think our situation is different. Players are leaving because they don't have faith in the staff as coaches or developers and because we don't win. If you're constantly promised tomorrow but tomorrow never comes, you're going to get tired of it, especially seeing that other programs actually follow through on the hype and succeed. I think our coaches really try hard but it's crystal clear it's not working in the current configuration. It says a lot about the incompetency of a program when it's clear changes must (not possibly) be made and they are not.

Is there more roster turnover overall in hoops? Yes. Are kids acting more like free agents now? Yes. But IMO it's about our inability to coach, develop, and win...not kids just packing up and leaving just to leave. If we were a winning program in and out of the top 25 and making tourneys regularly and developing players, we would 100% not be losing all these guys. I can try as hard as I can and train my entire life to beat Usain Bolt in the 100m dash, but I will not win. Not for a lack of effort, but because I don't have his abilities. Our coaching staff just does not have the ability to win consistently, plain and simple. Yet, we keep them and sounds like no changes will be made...again.[/quote]

The nonsense on this board just gets worse and worse. Please show me the program that inherited what this staff inherited and “actually follow through on the hype and succeed.” Just one, please. One program in a major conference that inherited an empty roster, had two recruiting cycles and won to the ridiculous expectations most on here have. I swear I wonder if many here have ever even seen a basketball.
 
Pretty sure SJ was projected to be squarely on the bubble if not in the tourney this year. That was by coaches too not "crazy" posters on here. How many years does a coach need? 25? Any objective outlet admits the Mullin experiment is an utter failure thus far. Outside of 2 big upsets that were isolated, it's been a total failure.
 
The program looks like it's in chaos. Where's the Boss?
 
Wonder how often Mullin sits down w/ Oliva and Gemp to provide updates or if they have a clue

Maybe Goff can get in their ears indirectly.

Mullin's experience running a program comes from 1 year of Slice insight and whatever Matt A tells him

Scary
 
[quote="Logen" post=280617][quote="Mike Zaun" post=280447][quote="RedmanMike" post=280444]It occurs to me that the roster churn we have experienced these part two off-seasons is becoming very common, and should be expected at all but the upper-echelon programs. In retrospect it was predictable and not at all surprising.

There is very little stability - and a premium is placed on immediate gratification and not long-term commitment and growth.

Players routinely change high schools and AAU programs multiple times. Several years ago, that would have been a red flag - today it is expected. It is standard operating procedure.

How many high schools did Lovett go to? He moved from one to the other year to year. Are we surprised that he moved on from St. John's in less than two years? He's probably making a mistake by leaving St. John's, but he's left everywhere else he's been.

Owens just transferred - for the second time. Are we at all surprised that - after he didn't find Tennessee to his liking - that he (and his dad) came to the same conclusion about St. John's? So now he'll try his luck at a third school in a third major conference. We'll see how it goes. I suspect he will have a marginal impact - and that he would have done better to stay with us. I have no idea how many high schools Owens went to, but I bet it was more than one...

We discuss the possibility of Trimble transferring. I have no idea if there is any validity to it, but none of us should be surprised if he does move on. Remember, he came to us after reneging on a commitment to Florida State.

The Euro kids were never going to be here for four years - it's a business deal for them. They are working on their game in the US until they can get picked up by a better pro team back in Europe. Mussini left after two years and the German kid after one. Neither is a surprise.

Yakwe is a different story. He came here and was loyal, but ultimately he was a mid-major player whose flaws were exposed over time. I feel badly for him and hope he catches on somewhere in the MAAC or the America East and has a great year.

We took chances on these kids - and we had to know that based on their history, many of them were not going to stick it out if they faced even a little adversity. The fact is that these kids basically act like free agents on one year contracts - if the situation they are in doesn't seem to be working out, then they go somewhere else.

So we and many other programs - even good ones - experience roster churn basically every year. It didn't used to be that way, but it is that way now. Until we improve dramatically we need to play the game, and that means taking chances on some kids who are moving on from somewhere else. When we do that, we need to realize that at some point they may choose to move on from us as well.[/quote]

Agree to an extent, but I think our situation is different. Players are leaving because they don't have faith in the staff as coaches or developers and because we don't win. If you're constantly promised tomorrow but tomorrow never comes, you're going to get tired of it, especially seeing that other programs actually follow through on the hype and succeed. I think our coaches really try hard but it's crystal clear it's not working in the current configuration. It says a lot about the incompetency of a program when it's clear changes must (not possibly) be made and they are not.

Is there more roster turnover overall in hoops? Yes. Are kids acting more like free agents now? Yes. But IMO it's about our inability to coach, develop, and win...not kids just packing up and leaving just to leave. If we were a winning program in and out of the top 25 and making tourneys regularly and developing players, we would 100% not be losing all these guys. I can try as hard as I can and train my entire life to beat Usain Bolt in the 100m dash, but I will not win. Not for a lack of effort, but because I don't have his abilities. Our coaching staff just does not have the ability to win consistently, plain and simple. Yet, we keep them and sounds like no changes will be made...again.[/quote]

The nonsense on this board just gets worse and worse. Please show me the program that inherited what this staff inherited and “actually follow through on the hype and succeed.” Just one, please. One program in a major conference that inherited an empty roster, had two recruiting cycles and won to the ridiculous expectations most on here have. I swear I wonder if many here have ever even seen a basketball.[/quote]

Logen, I understand your position but we are not asking for miracles here. This team is one quality grad transfer big away from being very good next year and the it seems like the entire staff is not doing all they can to make that happen. That's the issue. The entire staff should be out there trying to land that guy. No one is asking for a five star one and done big to come in next season. What we are expecting, a quality grad transfer big is not an unreasonable request. There are many of these type of players out there and this staff can't bust their asses to go out and get one? They can't just leave this all up to Matt. They should all be out there trying to land a player of this nature in order to ensure the success of this team and program for next season and that is not happening.
 
Amen MG. It’s mind-boggling. The Staff—as structured—is inadequate and not lasered into the task of rebuilding the program. Most everybody sees that except, it seems, CM—which stuns me, given the guy’s work ethic as a player.
And our competitors feast on our losing record, player defections, and an unfocused and inadequate Staff.
It should not and must not be acceptable to strike out on the search for ‘one Grad Big’—given the fact that most observers see how critical that vacancy is to our hopes for next season, and most importantly—to the 2019 recruiting class.
 
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ChicagoDays wrote: Amen MG. It’s mind-boggling. The Staff—as structured—is inadequate and not lasered into the task of rebuilding the program. Most everybody sees that except, it seems, CM—which stuns me, given the guy’s work ethic as a player.
And our competitors feast on our losing record, player defections, and an unfocused and inadequate Staff.
It should not and must not be acceptable to strike out on the search for ‘one Grad Big’—given the fact that most observers see how critical that vacancy is to our hopes for next season, and most importantly—to the 2019 recruiting class.

ChicagoDays - couldn't agree more. There is absolutely no excuse for the staff not getting a serviceable grad big man - from what we've read in Braziller's Post articles that is their goal; now they have to get out and do it while there are still some available. While I get that we don't have the track record to sell that some of our BE brethren have, we are clearly in no worse position than Depaul was last year. They managed to get a grad transfer who gave them 27 minutes, 14 points and 7 rebounds per game. It's not magic, just hard work. Hopefully that work is happening behind the scenes and we just aren't hearing about it yet. We'll see soon.
 
I don't see why this staff should be outworked by so many other programs.
Trying to figure the staff's coaching strengths: Recruiting? Player Development? In-Game Coaching? Media Interaction? H.O.R.S.E.?
 
[quote="Knight" post=280707]I don't see why this staff should be outworked by so many other programs.
Trying to figure the staff's coaching strengths: Recruiting? Player Development? In-Game Coaching? Media Interaction? H.O.R.S.E.?[/quote] HORSE:)
 
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