Weird Mets Stat

M

Marillac

Active member
Hernandez mentioned a really odd stat during the Mets game yesterday: the sub-.500 Mets are now 17-3 in games that Kurt Nieuwenhuis has started. He has started games at LF (mostly), CF, and RF. This is the second best record for a player (F.P. Santangelo was 18-2 in 2001) since 1914! Most of his starts (12) actually came on the road.

They guy is only hitting .250 with just 3 homers and 15 RBI in 102 at-bats, but does have 12 doubles and a .344 OBP with four steals (never caught). He has a good glove and is loaded with intangibles. His OBP in games he starts is close to .400.

I'm sure a lot of that is just pure chance, but the sample size is not exactly that small. There has to be something to it. The Mets are 20-16 in games that Eric Campbell has started and 15-22 in games that Matt den Dekker has started.
 
I think it's a statistical anomaly like getting struck by lightening or winning Powerball.
 
Trade:
BJs:
Jose Bautisa
Jose Reyes
cash

Mets:
Wheeler
Flores
Plawecki
Montero

Would you do it?
 
It's like finding an anomaly on Wall Street that every time a guy bought a stock in the last 5 years the market went up. The guy just happened to be there, and didn't make the market. Random occurrence. Nothing in Niewenhuis' stat line or intangibles indicates that he is responsible. Funny though - Billy Martin was given tons of credit for being a big reason the Yankee teams in the 50s was the best team in baseball. He even made the cover of sport Magazine based on his exploits. However, Martin undoubtedly came up big in big situations even if his overall stat line was very average, especially compared to Berra, Mantle, Ford and the rest.
 
I think it's a statistical anomaly like getting struck by lightening or winning Powerball.
Click to expand...

I agree; completely meaningless.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's the same thing. Winning the lottery and getting struck by lightening are nearly 100% chance. A player on a team can affect the outcome of the game. Of course there are plenty of things outside of Kurt's control that need to line up (most of his start come against righties, other guys have to hit, his pitcher has to pitch a good game, etc.), but the guy has the second highest OBP, Slugging %, and OPS on the team...and third is a big drop off.

I'm sure there is plenty of chance involved and I doubt that stat would hold up (how could it...85% wins) but to take him completely out of the equation is unfair. Kurt has allthe intangibles you can ask for in a player and gets on base extremely well. He works deep pitch counts routinely. Eric Campbell hits 30 points higher against righties than Kurt and the Mets haven't faired nearly as well with him in the lineup. den Dekker is a left-handed hitter and the Mets actually have a losing record with him starting.
 
Trade:
BJs:
Jose Bautisa
Jose Reyes
cash

Mets:
Wheeler
Flores
Plawecki
Montero

Would you do it?
Click to expand...
nope
Click to expand...

Bautista is 33 (clearly was on something--HGH--starting 2010) and Reyes is over 30 as well and always injured with a huge contract. I'd rather trade more for Stanton. The Mets have no luck with older players..not since Gilkey and Lance Johnson. Lance turned in the best season I've ever seen a Met have.
 
Trade:
BJs:
Jose Bautisa
Jose Reyes
cash

Mets:
Wheeler
Flores
Plawecki
Montero

Would you do it?
Click to expand...
nope
Click to expand...

Bautista is 33 (clearly was on something--HGH--starting 2010) and Reyes is over 30 as well and always injured with a huge contract. I'd rather trade more for Stanton. The Mets have no luck with older players..not since Gilkey and Lance Johnson. Lance turned in the best season I've ever seen a Met have.
Click to expand...
exactly my thoughts. no more old players if we are going to make a big trade. Also while I was definitely for a Stanton trade now I'd wait because after that pitch on his face I'd want to make sure he comes back from it ok
 
Trade:
BJs:
Jose Bautisa
Jose Reyes
cash

Mets:
Wheeler
Flores
Plawecki
Montero

Would you do it?
Click to expand...
nope
Click to expand...

Bautista is 33 (clearly was on something--HGH--starting 2010) and Reyes is over 30 as well and always injured with a huge contract. I'd rather trade more for Stanton. The Mets have no luck with older players..not since Gilkey and Lance Johnson. Lance turned in the best season I've ever seen a Met have.
Click to expand...
exactly my thoughts. no more old players if we are going to make a big trade. Also while I was definitely for a Stanton trade now I'd wait because after that pitch on his face I'd want to make sure he comes back from it ok
Click to expand...

Plus, this lineup is really only missing one mega bat. With the pitching next season, small ball from the rest of the team can win plenty of games. I like the guys like Nieuwenhuis, Campbell, and den Dekker. They need to find a platoon partner for Duda. His differential righty v. lefty is one of the biggest disparities I can remember. Against righties, he is hitting .274 with 27 homers 78 rbi and and obp of .376 in 455 at bats. Against lefties, he's batting .176 1 homer 8 rbi and a .267 obp in 116 at bats. Campbell is an option hitting .264 v. lefties, but there has to be some righty out there that smashes lefties that can be had on the cheap.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top