We are officially on the bubble

T

thetux1

Active member
Our RPI has skyrocketed in the last week with a top 2 SOS. Get to 17 wins and we are in. Nobody in the country has beaten 2 of the top 4 teams and in 5 days. Marq on Saturday is #13


And to think I week ago I wanted them to fold the program
 
I doubt that happens, but I believed the NIT removed the “must have winning record” part so we are guaranteed that with 17 wins.
 
Thrilled but let's not get crazy. We are so limited depth and scoring-wise that there is no margin for error. We'll lose so of the next bunch but honestly it doesn't matter. As I said in another thread, these last 2 are more important than winning 6 or 7 BE games.
 
Playing these “iron man” minutes is commendable but eventually can take its toll. The back to back Big East Tourney games, for example, make it difficult to make a run.

In the meantime, celebrate these two awesome wins & take the old “one game at a time approach down the stretch. NIT participation would be great. Huge +s are the positive impact on recruiting, giving kids something to be proud of & setting tone for great 19 season with Ponds of course. Proud of staff and kids’ efforts to keep their heads up. Keeping this together was not easy.
 
Agree Paultz. At this point, I'd be delighted with 8th place finish in BE and NIT. As you say, these wins are huge for attracting and retaining recruits.
 
Our RPI has skyrocketed in the last week with a top 2 SOS. Get to 17 wins and we are in. Nobody in the country has beaten 2 of the top 4 teams and in 5 days. Marq on Saturday is #13


And to think I week ago I wanted them to fold the program
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What is our RPI now after the 2 wins?
 
If wanted to make a run in the big east tournament we need to get out of that 8/9 game on Wednesday night. If you remember from last year the winner of that game has a quick turnaround and plays at Noon the next day vs the #1 seed.

If want to finish in seventh it is a must to sweep Marquette.

But right now it is just one game at a time. Getting to 17 for the NIT should be the goal.
 
What's important is the guys know they can beat the best team in the nation (Nova is unquestionable the team to beat in the NCAA tournament) in a hostile environment.

They will know nothing is impossible when the Big East Tournament starts.
 
#66 RPI on ESPN. It's rare but teams in that range have made it. I remember during the first year of the new Big East Georgetown had an awful record, an RPI around 66, and several big wins. They ended up being the first team out to the surprise of many. Keep in mind the committee does consider close losses (think I saw a recent quote on that) and how you finish. Also, clearly Ponds was injured during a stretch.

Not getting my hopes up though. NIT would be nice.

These two wins have finally made the program relevant, and for that I think it is already a successful season. I'd take these two wins over 7 Big East wins/NIT absolutely no question. This exposure is arguably more significant than when we made the tournament 3 years ago. That season lacked in thrilling wins, aside from on the road vs unranked Syracuse and a few nice Big East wins. Thank God we finally beat Duke and Nova.

Absolutely shocking.
 
Beating Duke and finally beating Nova now and then would be good.

Beating Duke and then Nova in the SAME Season in a five day stretch is exhilarating.

Duke at the Garden given all of the Duke fans is a neutral court game in my opinion. Nova in Philly is a very hostile environment.

All I can say is wow, this reminds me of Ponds doing his best Kemba Walker imitation and willing us to big victory after big victory. Kemba a Bronx guy I think, and Ponds a Brooklyn kid, my original home borough, along with Chris, so proud, BROOKLYN is in the house.

 
Duke plays UNC tonight- would be nice to see them wipe the floor with Roy and his "student athletes"
 
So if we win out from here, we go 7-11 in conference play, and have two wins over top-5 teams, one on the road.
UConn went 8-10 in conference in 2012 and made the NCAA tourney. They had no top-20 wins that year. They did not win the BE tourney, either, although they did make the final.
Just sayin' the odds for us still aren't zero at this point.
 
A few things to keep in mind. I know as fans we tend to split the season into two halves, but the committee looks at the entire resume. There's never been a conference threshold for wins. There are probably only a handful of teams with a better OOC than us, and winning vs Duke late in the season helps.

Right now we have the NUMBER ONE SOS in the nation:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/4

Also:
*The committee factors how you finish
*They evaluate based on injuries (Ponds)
*Big wins obviously are critical, NC State has an RPI of 60 (we're at 66-72 depending on source), but a lot of people think they'll be in due to their big wins
*I read a recent quote where they're taking a look at close losses

So forget about the Big East record. The Big East is the #1 RPI conference in the nation and we have a very strong OOC. SJU could still make the tournament.

That said, I expect we'll only win about 2-3 games the rest of the way and won't make it. But the fact that a bid remains possible at this point is absolutely insane.

As stated in the above post, one game at a time.
 
Absolutely, one game at a time. Each one a challenge for different reasons. Never say never.
 
Playing these “iron man” minutes is commendable but eventually can take its toll. The back to back Big East Tourney games, for example, make it difficult to make a run.

In the meantime, celebrate these two awesome wins & take the old “one game at a time approach down the stretch. NIT participation would be great. Huge +s are the positive impact on recruiting, giving kids something to be proud of & setting tone for great 19 season with Ponds of course. Proud of staff and kids’ efforts to keep their heads up. Keeping this together was not easy.
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Well said Paultz. Beating the #1 team in the nation on the road is incredible...doing it with 4 guys playing 37 minutes or more and 2 guys playing the rest is astonishing...not exactly sure how to describe doing so 4 days removed from beating the #4 team in the country at home, with 4 guys playing 37 minutes or more in that game.

When you think about 8 of 11 Big East losses by single digits, some of which were 1-2 possession games in the last minute, you wonder how many of those could have been Ws with even below average depth. Certainly not difficult to imagine those going +3 or +4, and if so at 15 or 16 wins SJU is probably more in the Tourney than out right now.

So credit to these kids not just for two amazing wins after 11 straight losses playing close to max minutes, but credit also to them for their consistent and similar efforts in close games that just didn't go their way. Of those 8 single digit conference losses, 6 were against teams that have been ranked at one point this season, 4 were on the road, and 3 were both. The only game that was neither was home Georgetown loss by 3.

Record aside, for effectively 6 primary minute getters to be sustaining that kind of performance for more than 6 weeks now is truly impressive.

To that end, two things have really stood out to me during this run looking beyond this season:

1. Caveat that recruiting rankings are clearly not scientific, highly rated kids underperform and kids not on high-major radars become high major kids all the time, on balance Ponds wasn't top 40 and Simon/Clark didn't end up at Zona/MSU by accident. And these are the kids that with regular consistency are influencing the game for SJU against the best competition in the country. Balance and depth obviously critical as well, but need to consistently restock the roster with this kind of kid so that there are at least 3-4 on every team.

2. You also have to find a way to keep a good mix of kids that don't fall under #1 for balance and depth. Tariq is an extreme example given his character, dedication, and production. But you absolutely need Trimble to hang in as well, and not look elsewhere just based on one year. Recognize that is the environment we are in with college hoops, but you likely need to have 4-5 of these types of kids on the roster each year to generate consistency. Curious for example the impact a guy like Freudenberg could have had on this year's team. Not every kid is going to turn into Tariq, but the middle-back of the roster that has rotation capability can't be a complete revolving door either.

Recognize both are obvious points, but think both are big open questions for staff to answer heading into 18/19. Not just the last two wins but the totality of the team's play in conference reflects SJU is closer than record indicates. Retaining Ponds, bringing in a player that is somewhere between Ponds and Simon/Clark (and maybe that's Brooks), and limiting roster turnover over next 6 months could set up for big year not only next year but going forward.
 
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