Underclassmen Leaving Early

JohnnyFan

Well-known member
2023 $upporter
With the deadline to withdraw from the draft recently expiring, I again wondered about which players are making good decisions for themselves. Of course, when it comes to SJU players, I want them all to stay. However, when I think about how I would advise my own family member, sometime the answer is.....go pro.

Finding this topic interesting, I thought we could use a thread to highlight examples of both good and bad choices. I'll start with a few from last year. These are specifically players who I think could have gone either way. Of course someone like Ben Simmons was a no-brainer.

Good Decision
Jamal Murray
Thon Maker
Henry Ellenson
Malik Beasley
Malachi Richardson
Skal Labissière
Chiek Diallo (surprisingly)
Isaiaha Whitehead

These players were all drafted high enough to earn guaranteed money in excess of $1.5 million.

Bad Decision
Ben Bentil, So. ($300k guaranteed, in D-league)
Jaylon Reynolds, Jr. (undrafted, playing in Italy)
Goodluck Okonoboh, So. (undrafted, in D-League)
Chris Obekpa, Jr. (Undrafted, in D-League)

Stayed 4 Years and it Paid Off
Yogi Ferrell (undrafted but had one of the league's best rookie seasons)
Buddy Heild
Denzel Valentine
Malcolm Brogdon
Brice Johnson
Ron Baker
GaryPayton II

I would have to say that most (or all) kids seem to get good advice. For 2016, the good decisions far outpaced the bad.
 
Full list from 2016 for comparative purposes. A lot more kids who either got bad advice or were simply done with school on this list.

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14963113/2016-nba-draft-list-declared-out

I am glad you added "or simply done with school...". Many don't note that this is the case with some of the decisions to go pro early. Not everyone is going to improve their status by staying another year or two. Some are basically "you are what you are" and staying another year is not going to change that. It has actually hurt a few who could have gone higher if they came out earlier due to who was coming out the next year, injuries or other things on or off the court that popped up on the radar.

You can use the "education argument" but if the player is really not a student or in to it, is he really going to get that degree if he stays or is he going to do just enough to stay eligible. Unless you are a star, you might not make the big bucks overseas, but that is still more money than some of these kids have ever seen.

Yes some of these kids get bad advice, some get good advice but due to their egos and self-worth estimates, don't listen to that good advice. Others have underlining reasons for making what seems to be a bad choice. It is just not always that simple or cut and dried.
 
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