The Season So Far

[lawmanfan]

Seems to me that the team has done about what you would reasonably expect thus far in league play:  Win two home games against teams it should beat, and lose two road games against very good teams, almost winning one of them.  I couldn't take too much away from the Georgetown game other than it does seem as though Wheeler will be a solid contributor and that Georgetown is dreadful, at least at the moment.  So it was just a game we should win and we did.

In every season there is always a loss or two that you don't expect and a win or two that you also don't expect, and I'm sure that will happen.  But the team faces a real test now with the upcoming slate of:

at Creighton
Hall
at Hall
at Nova
Providence

To get to the top third of the conference you would think they have to win at least the home games against Hall and Providence.  Winning at Creighton and at Nova is a tall task for anyone, and I doubt we sweep the Hall.  So I think if they go 2-3 in the next 5 that is about the best you could expect.  If they somehow go 3-2 then we may really have something here, but IMHO that would be a moonshot.

On the back end of that we are at Georgetown - I expect Georgetown to be more competitive by then, but it will once again be a must-win game.

As always the wild card is COVID sit-outs and injuries which could upend everything in either direction.

 

[boo haarvey]

Seems to me that the team has done about what you would reasonably expect thus far in league play:  Win two home games against teams it should beat, and lose two road games against very good teams, almost winning one of them.  I couldn't take too much away from the Georgetown game other than it does seem as though Wheeler will be a solid contributor and that Georgetown is dreadful, at least at the moment.  So it was just a game we should win and we did.

In every season there is always a loss or two that you don't expect and a win or two that you also don't expect, and I'm sure that will happen.  But the team faces a real test now with the upcoming slate of:

at Creighton
Hall
at Hall
at Nova
Providence

To get to the top third of the conference you would think they have to win at least the home games against Hall and Providence.  Winning at Creighton and at Nova is a tall task for anyone, and I doubt we sweep the Hall.  So I think if they go 2-3 in the next 5 that is about the best you could expect.  If they somehow go 3-2 then we may really have something here, but IMHO that would be a moonshot.

On the back end of that we are at Georgetown - I expect Georgetown to be more competitive by then, but it will once again be a must-win game.

As always the wild card is COVID sit-outs and injuries which could upend everything in either direction.

Unfortunately, we can’t segregate the conference season from the pre-conference season.  Given our weak schedule, lack of quality wins, and bad loss to Pitt, we started Big East play significantly beyond the eight ball.

For me and for most fans, I think the goal is making the tournament.  And we are well out of contention for that at the moment.  I think we need at least 11 big East wins to have a chance, and even with 11 wins, it’s  no certainty.

I would have hoped we’d be 3-1 in conference at this point.  But regardless, this season to date  has to be characterized as a disappointment.  

We played UConn tough and I’m glad we beat GTown, but I continue to see many of the glaring weaknesses that have plagued us all year.  2-3 over the next five games leaves us very far out of contention for a bid.  I wouldn’t be happy with that although I’m not expecting much more.  

 

[beast of the east]

If we are going to have a season, we must come out of the next 5 games with 2 wins.   More than that will not be easy and if we win 3 of these games, there is reason for excitement.   

 

[espken]

We were picked 4th by the conference coaches. We have to do better than just winning our home games if we are going to live up to those expectations.

 

[beast of the east]

We were picked 4th by the conference coaches. We have to do better than just winning our home games if we are going to live up to those expectations.

Definitely.  Must mop up the bottom of the league.   Reasonable guess is 5-1 against the bottom three.   Against top of league, going 2-4 is doable if you are any good.   then you have to go 4-4 against middle of league.    Do that, and it's a successful season.

 

[NCJohnnie]

I am very comfortable that 11-9 in the Big East and one BE tourney win gets us into the dance. I will feel a whole lot better if we can win Wednesday and go 3-2 over next 5. That is doable but will not be easy for sure. Love my Johnnies and will always look at things positively as long as I can reasonably do so. 

 

[beast of the east]

I am very comfortable that 11-9 in the Big East and one BE tourney win gets us into the dance. I will feel a whole lot better if we can win Wednesday and go 3-2 over next 5. That is doable but will not be easy for sure. Love my Johnnies and will always look at things positively as long as I can reasonably do so. 

The one brick in the wall I am most concerned about is winning Saturday at MSG vs. SHU.   Unless we break back immediately on Monday at their home court, getting swept by them would put a big dent in season hopes.    Conceivably we could lose away at Creighton if we get them back at home.   If we take care of business I'd be okay to lose 2 to Nova, though winning at home is a possibility also - Posh embarrassed Gillespie last season.

 

[boo haarvey]

I am very comfortable that 11-9 in the Big East and one BE tourney win gets us into the dance. I will feel a whole lot better if we can win Wednesday and go 3-2 over next 5. That is doable but will not be easy for sure. Love my Johnnies and will always look at things positively as long as I can reasonably do so. 

The one brick in the wall I am most concerned about is winning Saturday at MSG vs. SHU.   Unless we break back immediately on Monday at their home court, getting swept by them would put a big dent in season hopes.    Conceivably we could lose away at Creighton if we get them back at home.   If we take care of business I'd be okay to lose 2 to Nova, though winning at home is a possibility also - Posh embarrassed Gillespie last season.

If we don’t win any games on the road against decent teams, we’re not making the tournament.  Very likely that we’ll lose at least two or three at home in conference.  Funny how our expectations for success have decreased dramatically as the season has progressed.

 

[beast of the east]

I am very comfortable that 11-9 in the Big East and one BE tourney win gets us into the dance. I will feel a whole lot better if we can win Wednesday and go 3-2 over next 5. That is doable but will not be easy for sure. Love my Johnnies and will always look at things positively as long as I can reasonably do so. 

The one brick in the wall I am most concerned about is winning Saturday at MSG vs. SHU.   Unless we break back immediately on Monday at their home court, getting swept by them would put a big dent in season hopes.    Conceivably we could lose away at Creighton if we get them back at home.   If we take care of business I'd be okay to lose 2 to Nova, though winning at home is a possibility also - Posh embarrassed Gillespie last season.

If we don’t win any games on the road against decent teams, we’re not making the tournament.  Very likely that we’ll lose at least two or three at home in conference.  Funny how our expectations for success have decreased dramatically as the season has progressed.

My take from the beginning is that expectations were too high.   I've been at 10 or 11 wins since the beginning and that is beginning to look optimistic compared to how on here some expectations were as high as 13 or 14 conference wins and then sank to 4 or 5.     No question we must win some away games.   Keep in mind that at the 3/4 mark of every game we were in it, but played horribly down the stretch vs. Providence and Kansas.   We could easily have beaten Indiana, Uconn, and Pitt, and it's fair to say should have won at least 2 of the 3.    Teams have to learn to win and to improve start to finish.  We may regret losing those games as the season winds down, but my opinion is that we are finding our footing and who can and cannot play well at this level.

 

[espken]

Have to disagree that expectations were too high. We’re returning two all conference performers.
Time for the staff and players to live up to it.

 

[beast of the east]

Have to disagree that expectations were too high. We’re returning two all conference performers.
Time for the staff and players to live up to it.

Plus 8 new question marks

 

[espken]

Have to disagree that expectations were too high. We’re returning two all conference performers.
Time for the staff and players to live up to it.

Plus 8 new question marks

With Wusu, more than enough to compliment your best two players. Most coaches would kill to have two returning all conference first teamers like Posh and Champ.

 

[beast of the east]

Have to disagree that expectations were too high. We’re returning two all conference performers.
Time for the staff and players to live up to it.

Plus 8 new question marks

With Wusu, more than enough to compliment your best two players. Most coaches would kill to have two returning all conference first teamers like Posh and Champ.

So, have they been the problem in our slower than expected start?

 

[espken]

Have to disagree that expectations were too high. We’re returning two all conference performers.
Time for the staff and players to live up to it.

Plus 8 new question marks

With Wusu, more than enough to compliment your best two players. Most coaches would kill to have two returning all conference first teamers like Posh and Champ.

So, have they been the problem in our slower than expected start?

There are many reasons, and it’s solely on the staff to figure it out.

 

[lawmanfan]

Ken:

I think what's getting lost in the expectations game is that the team finished 4th in the league in a season in which (a) the league was down (Exhibit A being a woeful Georgetown team winning the BET); and (b) there was very little home court advantage as a result of COVID / no fans.  It was just an aberrational year in several respects and Coach Anderson and the staff did an excellent job playing the cards they were dealt.

A lot of people are looking at last year and saying what you say:  Well we finished 4th in the league, we returned 2 all-conference performers, so we should be about the same or better this year.

IMO what that overlooks is (a) the league this year is the opposite of last year - it may be the toughest conference in the country top-to-bottom; and (b) home court advantage has now returned.  AND you still have to deal with a different variety of COVID interruption (though hopefully our squad is past that now).

So the net impact of this is that you can be a better team, do a better job ... and win fewer games.

The bottom line for this team is that they have to go something like 5-1 against Georgetown, DePaul and Butler and average out to holding home court advantage against the rest of the league (i.e. 7-7, though it is unlikely to break down into a straight home/away split).  12-8 in this league, in this year would be a very good result.  11-9 would be fine. 

I guess the nickel summary is that IMO a 6th place finish this year is about the same as a 4th place finish last year. 

 

[IDRAFT]

Ken:

I think what's getting lost in the expectations game is that the team finished 4th in the league in a season in which (a) the league was down (Exhibit A being a woeful Georgetown team winning the BET); and (b) there was very little home court advantage as a result of COVID / no fans.  It was just an aberrational year in several respects and Coach Anderson and the staff did an excellent job playing the cards they were dealt.

A lot of people are looking at last year and saying what you say:  Well we finished 4th in the league, we returned 2 all-conference performers, so we should be about the same or better this year.

IMO what that overlooks is (a) the league this year is the opposite of last year - it may be the toughest conference in the country top-to-bottom; and (b) home court advantage has now returned.  AND you still have to deal with a different variety of COVID interruption (though hopefully our squad is past that now).

So the net impact of this is that you can be a better team, do a better job ... and win fewer games.

The bottom line for this team is that they have to go something like 5-1 against Georgetown, DePaul and Butler and average out to holding home court advantage against the rest of the league (i.e. 7-7, though it is unlikely to break down into a straight home/away split).  12-8 in this league, in this year would be a very good result.  11-9 would be fine. 

I guess the nickel summary is that IMO a 6th place finish this year is about the same as a 4th place finish last year. 

As they didn’t even consider the fourth place team for the tournament last year I wholeheartedly agree. There is no way the BE doesn’t get five this year and it will take a lot to go wrong for the conference not to get six.

 

[Andrew]

It still is uncertain if we will get our home game against Marquette back which changes the equation a little. If we finish 6th I think we will need to win two tournament games as the first one would be against the last place team and won't do anything for our resume. If we finish 5th we will probably need the first game and if we finish 7th we are done short of winning the conference tournament. That doesn't mean I don't  think the league won't get 6 teams in but we could finish ahead of a team that has a stronger resume.

 

[espken]

LMF, 

Agree the league was down last year, but did the teams that finished below us all return rosters head and shoulders above ours? Every team except for us had quality OOC power 5 wins.  Maybe it’s just my excitement of being picked 4th, something you can count on one hand in the last 25+ years for our beloved program. Maybe it’s the disappointment of playing lackluster against teams like St. Francis, NJIT, FDU, Pittsburgh, etc…  Watching the same mental errors over and over again, game after game. My hope is we get on track and start playing like we are a top tier Big East team. But we are going to have to do all the things better and we all know what these little things are. This is on the staff to correct otherwise it will be yet another wasted season. Covid pauses are tough to deal with, but every team in the country is dealing with it. It’s now or never for us, heck it may another 25+ years before we have a returning roster with multiple Big East first teamers. 

 

[fuchsia]

Think that without healthy maturing Pinzon we will have real trouble against any team that, unlike Georgetown, actually has guards.

 

[beast of the east]

Think that without healthy maturing Pinzon we will have real trouble against any team that, unlike Georgetown, actually has guards.

One thing about CMA's teams here - they have depth.  I can't off hand think of a single scholarship player that hasn't had a chance to prove he is capable of playing or hasn't seen playing time in real situations.