Some (ok, many) preliminary thoughts on the season. It isn't over yet, but I think we've seen enough to draw some conclusions.
First, the big picture view: Coming into the season, I thought that the ceiling for this team would be 7th in the league, maybe 6th if everything went right. So many things in life are a matter of perspective – when you are 1-5 then getting to that area seems as though it would be a tremendous achievement. When you go on a winning streak and are in striking range of 3rd place and maybe an NCAA bid, falling back to that area seems like a miserable failure.
But overall, with the team likely to finish someplace between 5th and 7th in the league, from a big picture standpoint I think it has to be counted as a successful season whatever happens from here on out. That isn’t just record-based, either.
The performance of Champagnie, Alexander and Wusu gives you confidence the staff has an eye for players who can thrive in their system. I fully expect that we will find the same for Pinzon, Traore, and Stanley. The JUCO/transfer scorecard is a bit more mixed (Moore has been a big plus, Cole has been disappointing, and Toro has been non-existent), but I think it’s fair to cut the staff a little slack on that – these are players who they reached for to fill what they perceived as holes in the roster (size, outside shooting) as opposed to freshmen brought in to develop in the program.
Next, while there is still room for debate about exactly how far the Anderson system can go, there really isn’t room for debate that it’s capable of delivering (at a minimum) what I’ve referred to as Providence/Marquette type results – top half of the league, maybe more in a good year.
So what happened with the roller coaster ride of bad/good/bad? I attribute the early bad to growing pains, and the good to the team jelling, rewarding Anderson’s patience and teaching, and establishing the starting and second units. The recent bad has shown a return to the things the team has done poorly all along (stop the ball, defend the post) without being offset by creating turnovers and shooting the ball well from 3. I think that’s due to a few things.
One is a stretch of playing teams with senior point guards who were able to handle the pressure. A related issue is that the league has seen SJU and adjusted, and we haven’t adjusted back. That shows up in how they handle the pressure defense and in breaking down our guards on the dribble for easy points in the paint. It also shows up in teams keeping a defender on Champagnie out on the perimeter (which essentially neutralizes him until he develops a better dribble-attack game), laying off Posh and Dunn from the outside, and taking their chances that someone else (Earlington, Wusu, Cole) won’t beat them. A healthy Williams would make a huge difference, but we don’t have that. And third, you get the sense in this crazy season that our freshmen have hit the proverbial freshman wall.
Adding some more personnel (as many have noted) would definitely help with the equation, but Anderson has some work to do here too. My primary concern when he was hired was the halfcourt offense. It’s all well and good to try to get teams to run with you (and with more players and more experience I think that is only going to become more effective), but sooner or later you are going to have to survive a halfcourt game. We need to add something to the arsenal that is designed to free players for open looks, as opposed to swinging the ball around looking for a matchup to exploit.
A concern I did NOT expect to have, but which has risen to the top, is the fundamental defense, which has been atrocious from the beginning of the year. There were a couple of exceptions during the win streak, but overall it’s difficult to win if your guards are incapable of stopping the dribble, your bigs don’t rotate, and nobody has any clue at all about how to play post defense. Admittedly we are light on post personnel, but that is no excuse for being absolutely clueless about how to defend down low.
As far as the players go, most of this isn’t ground-breaking:
Champagnie: The next step is being able to put the ball on the floor and get his own shot. If he’s going to be a go-to guy in the league, he has to find a way to create points, not just take them when they are there to be taken.
Alexander: Spend the summer shooting 3s. Work on a pull-up jumper in the lane. Pay more attention to staying in front of your man after the ball gets over halfcourt.
Wusu: Work on the outside shot and body control on the drive. By now you know that if you touch somebody, they’re going to call the foul on you. Work on avoiding the contact where possible.
Moore: Keep polishing the mid-range jumper until its deadly. Practice the 3 also. Hit the weight room. Work on post moves and post defense.
Williams: Take up yoga. Work on your mindset to be more aggressive when you have the ball. It isn’t being selfish, it’s helping the team.
McGriff: Figure out why Coach doesn’t play you and fix it.
Earlington: Keep being the Junkyard Dog, and keep practicing the 3 pointer.
Roberts: A short-range jumper would do you a world of good.
Cole: Do what you can about the foot speed. Play as much as you can against higher-level competition.
Dunn: Keep working on that midrange jumper.
Yes I know that was long. Sue me.
First, the big picture view: Coming into the season, I thought that the ceiling for this team would be 7th in the league, maybe 6th if everything went right. So many things in life are a matter of perspective – when you are 1-5 then getting to that area seems as though it would be a tremendous achievement. When you go on a winning streak and are in striking range of 3rd place and maybe an NCAA bid, falling back to that area seems like a miserable failure.
But overall, with the team likely to finish someplace between 5th and 7th in the league, from a big picture standpoint I think it has to be counted as a successful season whatever happens from here on out. That isn’t just record-based, either.
The performance of Champagnie, Alexander and Wusu gives you confidence the staff has an eye for players who can thrive in their system. I fully expect that we will find the same for Pinzon, Traore, and Stanley. The JUCO/transfer scorecard is a bit more mixed (Moore has been a big plus, Cole has been disappointing, and Toro has been non-existent), but I think it’s fair to cut the staff a little slack on that – these are players who they reached for to fill what they perceived as holes in the roster (size, outside shooting) as opposed to freshmen brought in to develop in the program.
Next, while there is still room for debate about exactly how far the Anderson system can go, there really isn’t room for debate that it’s capable of delivering (at a minimum) what I’ve referred to as Providence/Marquette type results – top half of the league, maybe more in a good year.
So what happened with the roller coaster ride of bad/good/bad? I attribute the early bad to growing pains, and the good to the team jelling, rewarding Anderson’s patience and teaching, and establishing the starting and second units. The recent bad has shown a return to the things the team has done poorly all along (stop the ball, defend the post) without being offset by creating turnovers and shooting the ball well from 3. I think that’s due to a few things.
One is a stretch of playing teams with senior point guards who were able to handle the pressure. A related issue is that the league has seen SJU and adjusted, and we haven’t adjusted back. That shows up in how they handle the pressure defense and in breaking down our guards on the dribble for easy points in the paint. It also shows up in teams keeping a defender on Champagnie out on the perimeter (which essentially neutralizes him until he develops a better dribble-attack game), laying off Posh and Dunn from the outside, and taking their chances that someone else (Earlington, Wusu, Cole) won’t beat them. A healthy Williams would make a huge difference, but we don’t have that. And third, you get the sense in this crazy season that our freshmen have hit the proverbial freshman wall.
Adding some more personnel (as many have noted) would definitely help with the equation, but Anderson has some work to do here too. My primary concern when he was hired was the halfcourt offense. It’s all well and good to try to get teams to run with you (and with more players and more experience I think that is only going to become more effective), but sooner or later you are going to have to survive a halfcourt game. We need to add something to the arsenal that is designed to free players for open looks, as opposed to swinging the ball around looking for a matchup to exploit.
A concern I did NOT expect to have, but which has risen to the top, is the fundamental defense, which has been atrocious from the beginning of the year. There were a couple of exceptions during the win streak, but overall it’s difficult to win if your guards are incapable of stopping the dribble, your bigs don’t rotate, and nobody has any clue at all about how to play post defense. Admittedly we are light on post personnel, but that is no excuse for being absolutely clueless about how to defend down low.
As far as the players go, most of this isn’t ground-breaking:
Champagnie: The next step is being able to put the ball on the floor and get his own shot. If he’s going to be a go-to guy in the league, he has to find a way to create points, not just take them when they are there to be taken.
Alexander: Spend the summer shooting 3s. Work on a pull-up jumper in the lane. Pay more attention to staying in front of your man after the ball gets over halfcourt.
Wusu: Work on the outside shot and body control on the drive. By now you know that if you touch somebody, they’re going to call the foul on you. Work on avoiding the contact where possible.
Moore: Keep polishing the mid-range jumper until its deadly. Practice the 3 also. Hit the weight room. Work on post moves and post defense.
Williams: Take up yoga. Work on your mindset to be more aggressive when you have the ball. It isn’t being selfish, it’s helping the team.
McGriff: Figure out why Coach doesn’t play you and fix it.
Earlington: Keep being the Junkyard Dog, and keep practicing the 3 pointer.
Roberts: A short-range jumper would do you a world of good.
Cole: Do what you can about the foot speed. Play as much as you can against higher-level competition.
Dunn: Keep working on that midrange jumper.
Yes I know that was long. Sue me.
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