The Big Ten would have cherry-picked Penn State eventually. Expansion by the major conferences was inevitable--call it manifest destiny.
Even with Penn State, the ACC would have been more attractive to Va Tech, Miami, and probably BC.
No way! It's all about football $$ and Penn State is far more attractive to TV audiences then anything the ACC was offering ... Georgia Tech? UNC football? Clemson? Penn State alone probably equals the tv audiences those 3 combined have on an average Saturday afternoon.
The key player would've been Florida State. No way they would have stayed pat. They would have bolted to either the SEC or for us. And I think at the right time.. with Miami, Va Tech, Penn State on board, you could have convinced Florida State to join the Big East.
Again, it's a domino effect ... but Penn State makes the league strong enough that Va Tech and Miami (two powers) never leave. Plus BC, a solid if less impactful school. Those teams staying home would've stayed off Pittsburgh, Syracuse and WVU from leaving.
You're right that the conference's greed for expansion was somewhat inevitable.. but by simply adding Penn State we would've been in position to be one of the league's adding on rather than the one being ravaged.
Again, ACC basketball is great - but as we know well, bball pays about 1/50 of what football does.