jerseyshorejohnny
Well-known member
Buy, Sell or Hold? Presenting the annual Hoop Thoughts Stock Report
Seth Davis / The ATHLETIC
Well, that was quite the vertiginous vortex, wasn’t it? I’m not just talking about the way the Dow and the S&P finished 2018. I’m talking about college hoops. What, you didn’t anticipate that Furman would beat half of last year’s Final Four … on the road? You didn’t tell all your friends Arizona State would beat top-ranked Kansas … and then lose at home to Princeton one week later? From bulls to bears to everything in between, college hoops is va-va-vooming with volatility. We wouldn’t have it any other way.
The problem is, we’re not just fans, we’re Hoop Thinkers. We’re invested. We don’t just want to know what has happened, we need to know what is going to happen. Fortunately, your coveted, annual turn-of-the-calendar guide has arrived. I herewith present my annual Hoop Thoughts Stock Report, wherein your resident Hoop Thinker rates all of the major programs Buy, Hold or Sell as conference play gets underway.
Most of you know the drill. I have assessed each team’s market value based on record, rankings and buzz. Then I’ve laid out the reasons why that team’s stock price will rise, fall or hold steady over the next three months. Because you are savvy shoppers, you understand the counterintuitive dynamic at play. The better a team is, the higher its stock price, and therefore the more likely I am to rate it a Sell. A team that has suffered many losses and is undervalued inclines me toward a Buy. Ergo, just because I rate one team a Buy and another a Sell does not mean I believe the Buy team is better than the Sell program. Got it?
Between my 50 ratings, plus my 10 sleeper stocks and five to dump, I have given you the skinny on 65 programs at this most pivotal time. So read carefully and shop smartly. There’s going to be a lot more turbulence before the 2018-19 season touches down three months from now in Minneapolis, so we might as well enjoy the ride.
Happy New Year, hoopheads.
Arizona (9-4, No. 54 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
This stock price is so low there’s no sense selling it, but given how weak the Pac-12 is, I think there’s a good chance the Wildcats will finish in the top three. That would put them in position to make the NCAA Tournament – maybe. KenPom ranks Arizona 202nd nationally in experience, but that is misleading because even the older players, including two grad transfers, are playing new roles. That tells me there is lots of potential for improvement. Sophomore forward Brandon Randolph and freshman guard Brandon Williams are the most talented guys on this team, and while Arizona took a few lumps in the nonconference, the challenging schedule prepared the Wildcats for the start of league play.
Arizona State (9-3, No. 17 AP, No. 49 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
This stock took a beating as a result of that home loss to Princeton on Saturday, but I still think these Sun Devils are better equipped for long-term success than last year’s group. They’re tougher for starters, thanks to the presence of their elite-level, glass-eating glue-guy, 6-8 senior forward Zylan Cheatham, plus they have terrific offensive balance. And you could do a lot worse than hand over your hard-earned dollars to freshman guard Luguentz Dort. Maybe the loss to Princeton will serve as a lesson on the importance of being ready for every opponent.
Auburn (11-2, No. 12 AP, No. 12 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
There’s not a ton of upside to this stock, but I still say this is a good time to scoop it up. The Tigers have been sputtering the last couple of weeks, barely escaping UAB in overtime before falling on the road against a good N.C. State team on Dec. 19. I believe they’ll be re-energized for the start of SEC play. I also like how the schedule falls for them. They don’t play at Kentucky until Feb. 23, and their lone meeting with Tennessee is at home. In addition, Auburn just returned an important piece in 6-7 junior forward Danjel Purifoy, who missed all of last season and the first eight games this season because of eligibility issues. Once he gets comfortable, this team’s depth and overall speed will be significantly enhanced.
Buffalo (12-1, No. 21 AP, No. 29 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
It may take some time for the Bulls to fall out of the Top 25, but it’s fair to say they won’t rise any higher. In retrospect, their road wins over West Virginia and Syracuse are not quite the validators they appeared to be at the time. And it was disconcerting to watch them get blown out by 18 points at Marquette. Now that MAC play is starting, Buffalo is going to have a huge target on its back. Hopefully, the Bulls will tighten up their defense and not be so reliant on jump-shooting as March approaches, because this can still be a dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament.
Butler (9-4, No. 37 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
The Bulldogs beat Florida in the Bahamas during Thanksgiving week. Besides that, there’s not a lot to suggest they are headed for a top-three Big East finish, especially in light of Saturday’s embarrassing 34-point loss to those same Gators in Gainesville. Butler’s half-court offense is just OK, partly because leading scorer Kamar Baldwin, a 6-1 junior guard, is only shooting 28 percent from 3-point range, down from 33 percent a year ago. The Bulldogs don’t get to the foul line enough (289th nationally in free throw rate), don’t clean up their misses (204th in offensive rebound percentage) and don’t generate much offense off their defense (257th in steal percentage). In other words, this is not a stock you want to own heading into conference play.
Cincinnati (11-2, No. 27 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This stock is woefully undervalued. The Bearcats dropped their opener at home against Ohio State and got beat up pretty good at Mississippi State. Otherwise, this has been a typical Mick Cronin team. Cincinnati plays tough defense (12th nationally in efficiency) and a slow tempo (348th), and lately, the Bearcats have shown signs of life on the offensive end. With Justin Jenifer, who leads the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, running the show, Cincinnati will not give opponents many extra possessions, and 6-5 junior forward Jarron Cumberland is an elite-level bucket-getter. Plus, in a down year in the American, it’s hard to see the Bearcats losing more than two or three games over the next two months.
Duke (11-1, No. 1 AP, No. 1 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
I generally like buying young teams this time of year (the Blue Devils are the seventh-youngest in the country in KenPom’s experience metric). Yet given this team’s lofty station, a Buy rating would mean I think it is going to win a national championship, and I am just not there yet – precisely because the Devils are so young. For all the obvious assets I spy a few canaries in this coal mine. Duke’s 3-point shooting is unreliable, which makes its half-court offense easier to defend. Its bench is short, which makes it vulnerable to foul trouble and bad matchups. It has yet to play a true road game, so it’s bound to get clipped. And R.J. Barrett seems unable or unwilling to set up his teammates, which is a problem since he is so ball-dominant. I love that this team is developing its identity around a man-to-man defense that fuels the running game, but while Duke must be on any short list of title contenders, it does not yet reside at the top of mine. So let’s pump the brakes a little.
Florida (8-4, No. 17 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
The Gators finally got a signature win when they thrashed Butler on Saturday. They have had a very challenging nonconference schedule, and while they lost all four of their toughest games, I believe that prepared them well for SEC play. It’s always tough when you start a freshman point guard, but Andrew Nembhard (7.3 points, 5.8 assists) has shown he is capable of handling that responsibility. Florida is not a good jump-shooting team and is even worse from the foul line, but it appears to be building its identity around defense (eight nationally in efficiency) and controlling pace (331st in tempo). That’s the kind of style that can get you a few ugly wins on the road. And it has to be only a matter of time before Jalen Hudson remembers how to play basketball again, right?
Florida State (11-1, No. 9 AP, No. 16 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I like the Seminoles, but are they really the ninth-best team in the country? With their ACC opener coming at Virginia on Saturday and a home date with Duke happening a week later, this is an ideal time to sell. Also consider that Florida State’s best win came by one point at home against Purdue, which isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Once again, Leonard Hamilton has a long, athletic team that only just welcomed back last year’s leading scorer, 6-8 senior forward Phil Cofer, from a foot injury. At some point, though, inconsistent perimeter shooting and sloppiness with the ball is bound to cost the Seminoles a few games. I’m also concerned that Florida State is ranked 284th in the country in defensive free throw rate. That propensity to foul makes a big difference in close games.
Clarke is averaging 17.1 points and 8.4 rebounds while shooting 70.7 percent from the field. (James Snook/USA Today)
Gonzaga (11-2, No. 7 AP, No. 3 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
I was tempted to rate the Zags a Buy-Plus, because even though they lost two straight earlier this month (after beating Washington by just two points at home), they remain my favorite to win the national championship. How many teams can say they have a frontrunner for national player of the year (Rui Machimura), yet he has arguably been the second-best player on his own team (next to San Jose State transfer Brandon Clarke)? Most of all, Gonzaga’s leading returning scorer, 6-10 junior forward Killian Tillie, is about to come back from the right ankle injury that has kept him out the entire season. They are also without Geno Crandall, the 6-3 grad transfer who at some point is bound to recapture the long-range shooting prowess he showed at North Dakota. Throw in the fact that point guard Josh Perkins has been in a slump and the West Coast Conference looks rather weak, and it’s easy to see the Zags not losing another game between now and the tournament.
Houston (13-0, No. 22 AP, No. 33 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
When a team is undefeated against a strength of schedule ranked No. 327 in the country, then it would seem smart to sell its stock as conference play is getting underway. But when you look at the Cougars’ schedule the next four weeks, it’s hard to see when the first loss will come. They play at Temple on Jan. 9, but beyond that, the toughest road games (UCF, UConn, Cincinnati) won’t happen until February. So I expect the Cougars will be undefeated a while longer. Houston doesn’t have a dominant scorer as it had last year in Rob Gray, but I like that it features two seniors and a junior among its top three scorers. With the American experiencing a down season, Houston is positioned to reap the benefits.
Indiana (11-2, No. 23 AP, No. 24 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
Having won four consecutive games earlier this month by a total of eight points, Indiana is teetering as it heads into a difficult stretch. Following their home game against Illinois on Thursday, the Hoosiers will play four of their next five on the road, and the home game against Nebraska is no cakewalk. For all the hype about Romeo Langford, this team is at its best when it is playing through 6-8 senior forward Juwan Morgan down low. Langford is a really good scorer, but he is also shooting 21 percent from 3-point range, and teams know how to scout an opponent. Throw in a freshman point guard in Rob Phinisee, who is going through the gauntlet of league play for the first time, and this team is bound to lose a few it shouldn’t. Indiana’s spot in the Top 25 is going to be short-lived.
Iowa (11-2, No. 24 AP, No. 41 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I’m not sure why a home win over Iowa State and neutral-court victories over Oregon and UConn merit a place in the Top 25, but I don’t expect the Hawkeyes to be there for long. They got eviscerated at Michigan State by 22 points on Dec. 3, and they get the Spartans again in Iowa City in late January. We’ve seen some really bad late-season swoons from Iowa the last few years, and while I would be surprised if that happens with this group, I still don’t think this is a good enough defensive team to put together a top-tier Big Ten finish.
Iowa State (10-2, No. 18 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This rating is based on the singular fact that the Cyclones are hosting Kansas on Saturday. With sophomore guard Lindell Wigginton recovered from his foot injury (he scored 15 points in his return against Eastern Illinois), and with Udoka Azubuike just returning for Kansas from an ankle injury, why not take a chance on Hilton Magic providing a tidy profit this weekend? Besides, this is a good purchase over the long term. Without their best player, the Cyclones looked pretty solid the first two months, losing only to Arizona and Iowa, both away from home. The additions of 6-6 senior forward Marial Shayok, a transfer from Virginia, and freshman guard Talen Horton-Tucker look to be paying off as well.
Kansas (11-1, No. 5 AP, No. 6 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This is a good time to scoop up the Jayhawks given that their stock has suffered a minor correction, not just with their loss at Arizona State but also the close calls against Stanford, New Mexico State and Villanova. There are three reasons to be bullish on this stock. First and foremost, 7-foot junior center Udoka Azubuike is back from the ankle injury that sidelined him for most of December. Second, the loss to the Sun Devils was surely a gift to Bill Self, who I’m sure spent most of the holiday week telling his players how soft they are. Third, while there are plenty of good teams in the Big 12, there is an unusually large gap between KU and the rest of the conference. I’m a little concerned about that mercurial freshman backcourt, but other than that, Kansas at the start of conference play is about as safe a purchase as the market offers year after year.
Kansas State (10-2, No. 32 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I sensed the Wildcats were a little overrated coming into the season based on their surprising dash to the Elite Eight last year. They were rather underwhelming in the early going, dropping back-to-back games to Marquette and Tulsa in early December, and now they will be without their leading scorer and rebounder, Dean Wade, for a few more weeks because of a foot injury. Wade has a history of foot issues, so even when he comes back you have to wonder about his durability. Kansas State’s offensive shortcomings will be a major problem as it navigates through a Big 12 that has no weak teams.
Kentucky (10-2, No. 16 AP, No. 13 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
Hopefully, you were smart enough to hold onto this stock even as it went through those early stumbles. We’ve seen this movie too many times before. Kentucky is the third-youngest team in the country, and though it was disruptive to lose sophomore guard Quade Green to a midseason transfer, his departure helped clear the decks on the rotation. It certainly established freshman Ashton Hagans as a defensive stopper, which was badly needed on a team whose perimeter D had been so suspect the first two months, and it appears to have unleashed Tyler Herro, who had a game-high 24 points in Saturday’s big win at Louisville. It’s a little scary that the Wildcats have to play all three of the top contenders in the SEC (Tennessee, Auburn, Florida) twice, not to mention that they have a home date with Kansas on Jan. 26, but in this case, I choose to view those games as stock-boosting opportunities.
Louisville (9-4, No. 42 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I wanted to wait until after the Kentucky game to rate the Cardinals, and unfortunately, they made this an easy decision. Seeing them get outclassed on their home floor laid bare the talent gap this team will face in the ACC. Even on a day where the Wildcats had a hard time making 3-pointers, Louisville couldn’t generate enough offense to win. That’s going to be a major problem when the Cardinals get to February and face a brutally back-loaded conference schedule. Toughness and effort are admirable qualities, but they can carry a team only so far.
Marquette (11-2, No. 18 AP, No. 28 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This is another stock I considered rating a Buy Plus, mostly because I don’t think people realize that the Golden Eagles are the team to beat in the Big East. That was a really good Buffalo team they sliced up 10 days ago, which came courtesy of a 45-point explosion from 5-11 junior guard Markus Howard. That was Howard’s second 45-point game in December, and I love that he is averaging more than seven free throws per game. So it’s not like Marquette is susceptible if he has a bad shooting night. The Eagles have a tough interior defender in 6-9 sophomore Theo John and a pair of potent stretch-fours in the Hauser brothers, Sam and Joey. With the league’s usual stalwarts, Villanova and Xavier, experiencing down years, Marquette is ready to rise to the top of the Big East standings.
Maryland (10-3, No. 31 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
As I’ve noted, it’s usually a smart strategy to buy young teams this time of year. The Terps are the fifth-youngest team in the country per KenPom, but they have considerable talent. Sophomore forward Bruno Fernando has made great strides since he arrived in College Park last year. He is shooting 69 percent from the floor, which ranks ninth nationally, and he is getting better at passing out of double-teams. He and 6-10 freshman Jalen Smith are as formidable a front-court tandem as you will find. I also like that four of Maryland’s next six Big Ten games are at home, including potential stock-boosting matchups against Nebraska, Indiana and Wisconsin.
Memphis (8-5, No. 103 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
The excitement about the future in Memphis under Penny Hardaway has run head-on into the reality of the present. And the reality is that this is a team with a low ceiling. The team’s two top-100 wins are against No. 70 South Dakota State and No. 97 Yale, both of which were at home and the latter of which required two overtimes. The Tigers have some good senior leaders in 6-3 guard Jeremiah Martin and 6-8 forward Kyvon Davenport as well as an exciting freshman point guard in Tyler Harris, but they are not disciplined enough defensively to make the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan (13-0, No. 2 AP, No. 4 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
Last year at this time, the Wolverines were unranked, so I rated them a Buy-Plus. I don’t believe they will fall far, but I do think they have no place to go but down. They looked like world-beaters in the early going, beating Villanova and North Carolina by 27 and 17 points, respectively, but lately, they have looked like just another really good basketball team. (Michigan almost lost at Northwestern on Nov. 28 before winning by two.) I’m a little concerned that John Beilein is basically playing six guys, but mostly I awarded this rating because I think the Big Ten is really good. It’s hard to sustain this type of defensive intensity over 2½ months with such a short bench. The Wolverines are bound to drop a few during conference play before reconstituting themselves for their usual March run.
Michigan State (11-2, No. 8 AP, No. 5 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
It’s weird to say a top-10 team is flying under the radar, but with all the excitement surrounding Michigan, it seems to me as if people are sleeping on the Spartans. But you’d be hard-pressed to find an example of a team that has a veteran guard tandem as good as Cassius Winston and Josh Langford, plus a legitimate post threat in Nick Ward. The role players understand their roles, and of course, nobody coaches toughness better than Tom Izzo. It says here that if Michigan State stays healthy, it will win the Big Ten.
Minnesota (11-2, No. 61 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This team is unranked and undervalued, but coaches around the Big Ten know how dangerous the Gophers can be. Conference play is usually an ugly, physical grind, and not many teams in the league are built for that better than this one. The Gophers have a stud rebounder and post scorer in 6-7 senior forward Jordan Murphy, and 6-10 freshman Daniel Oturu is starting to come on strong. The outside shooting tends to disappear for long stretches, but they compensate by ranking fifth in the country in offensive rebound percentage and offensive free throw rate. And junior Amir Coffey gives this team a different look as a 6-8 point guard.
Mississippi State (12-1, No. 19 AP, No. 21 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
For a team that has been ranked every week and has some notable wins over Dayton (road), Clemson (neutral) and Cincinnati (home), the Bulldogs are generating absolutely no buzz. That is going to change once conference play gets underway. We usually think of Ben Howland’s teams as less than entertaining, but this one ranks 20th nationally in offensive efficiency. Senior guard Quinndary Weatherspoon is one of the better two-way players in the country. Later this month the Bulldogs have a date at Kentucky followed by a home game against Auburn. Even if they only split those, you’ll make some money on this purchase.
Missouri (9-3, No. 72 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
Everyone (myself included) left the Tigers for dead after Jontay Porter got hurt in the preseason, but they are showing some signs of life lately with wins over UCF, Xavier and Illinois. With Porter’s injury robbing Missouri of its best offensive threat, Cuonzo Martin can go back to emphasizing the things he does best, which is teaching hard-nosed defense and how to slow the pace. The point guard play scares me (Mizzou ranks ninth in the SEC in turnovers, at 13.6 per game), but freshman wing Javon Pickett has room for growth, and with Jeremiah Tilmon and Kevin Puryear down low, no one will push this team around. Moreover, I like that Missouri only has to play Kentucky and Auburn once each.
Nebraska (11-2, No. 15 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
I have consistently ranked the Cornhuskers higher than my fellow AP voters, so when they turn out to be a lot better than people think, you’ll know who was ahead of the curve (again). Nebraska won 10 of its final 12 regular-season games last year, and it has continued the momentum behind a nucleus of three seniors, including two fifth-year guys in 6-6 guard James Palmer and 6-9 forward Isaac Copeland. You can see by the team’s high KenPom ranking that it has played quality basketball while notching wins over Seton Hall and Creighton at home, plus Clemson on the road. In the next two weeks, Nebraska has challenging but winnable games at Maryland, Iowa and Indiana before facing Michigan State at home on Jan. 17. That’s a lot of chances for a veteran team to raise its stock price. Get ’em while you can still afford ’em.
Nevada (13-0, No. 6 AP, No. 8 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
You might say the Wolf Pack has nowhere to go but down – and you’d be wrong. This team, which starts five fifth-year seniors, came through a tough nonconference slate unscathed, and it is now poised to romp through the weakest Mountain West Conference we’ve seen in years. It also has a highly talented, former McDonald’s All-American freshman forward in Jordan Brown who has had a minimal impact but is bound to improve. And whereas we might wait for an undefeated team such as this to run out of gas and lose a trap game, I believe it is on a mission enter the NCAA Tournament undefeated. Throw in the fact that the teams ranked ahead of Nevada are bound to lose, and there’s a good chance the Wolf Pack will be undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the country on Selection Sunday. Does that sound like a stock you’d like to own 10 weeks hence?
North Carolina (9-3, No. 14 AP, No. 7 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I want to like this team, but I can’t shake the feeling that the Tar Heels are soft. The loss to Kentucky was galling given how poorly the Cats had been playing to that point. North Carolina took a punch early on and never mounted a credible counterattack. The defense is efficient but not disruptive, and while the Heels have two potent scorers in senior forwards Cameron Johnson and Luke Maye, those guys are jump-shooters, not drivers, and neither plays like an alpha male. The development of freshman point guard Coby White will be intriguing, but he is still learning to decide when to get his own buckets versus setting up his teammates.
N.C. State (12-1, No. 20 AP, No. 22 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
After romping through an early schedule that included five wins over teams ranked below No. 300 on KenPom, and after letting a golden opportunity at Wisconsin slip away in late November, the Wolfpack finally scored a signature win over Auburn two weeks ago. I do think N.C. State benefited from catching Auburn at a good time, but I also believe it has another price-boosting opportunity on Jan. 8 at home against North Carolina. Kevin Keatts has a deep bench that allows him to unleash an attacking, pressing defense. And you could do worse than betting long term on gritty, experienced guards Markell Johnson and Torin Dorn.
Northwestern (9-4, No. 47 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
Talk about a bargain. The Wildcats played three ranked teams — Indiana, Michigan and Oklahoma — to the wire but lost by a combined 11 points. (The seven-point loss to the Sooners came in overtime.) We should expect that a team working in two transfers should take some time to develop its chemistry, but I love the veteran leadership being provided on the front line by seniors Vic Law and Dererk Pardon, and unlike last year, when they had to play in suburban Chicago because of renovations to Welsh-Ryan Arena, the Wildcats have a real home court. I’d like to see Chris Collins develop his bench a little more, and I don’t like that the Wildcats have to play at Michigan State and Michigan in the next two weeks, but there are enough opportunities in the Big Ten for quality wins that I believe Northwestern will play its way into the NCAA Tournament.
Ohio State (12-1, No. 13 AP, No. 25 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
The Big Ten is too good for the Buckeyes’ stock to stay at its current price. While they did open with a solid win at Cincinnati, none of their wins have come against teams currently ranked in the Top 25. They resume conference play on Saturday with a home game against Michigan State, and they have brutal back-to-back road games next month at Nebraska and Michigan. I love sophomore forward Kaleb Wesson’s improvement as a post scorer, but I’m concerned the Buckeyes are not generating more offense from behind the 3-point line. That tells me they are operating with a small margin for error.
Oklahoma (11-1, No. 25 AP, No. 26 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
You could do a lot worse than hand over your cash to Lon Kruger. We usually think of him as a terrific offensive coach, but the Sooners are ranked ninth in the country in defensive efficiency. They are also fifth nationally in defensive free throw rate. I love this team, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Oklahoma emerges as Kansas’ primary challenger in the Big 12. Without Trae Young, Oklahoma is an older, more balanced team. Christian James, a 6-4 senior, is a big, strong guard who can score from anywhere on the floor, and he plays on a roster with lots of versatile athletes.
Oregon (9-4, No. 39 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
It’s not even January, and already it feels like a lost season in Eugene. The Ducks were facing a rebuilding project following the loss of three starters, but a rash of injuries has squelched whatever hope was left. Just when prized freshman Louis King was returning from a knee injury he suffered as a high school senior, another prized freshman, 7-2 center Bol Bol, who leads the team in scoring, rebounds and blocks, was shelved by a lower leg injury. There is no indication when he will be back. Oregon will also be without 6-9 sophomore Kenny Wooten (broken jaw) for at least another month, and 6-7 sophomore forward Abu Kigab (foot) for another week or so. Besides that, this team is the picture of perfect health.
Purdue (8-5, No. 19 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I am guessing that the Boilermakers’ lofty KenPom ranking is a reflection of their schedule, which ranks as the 10th-strongest in the country. The problem is they lost all of their tough nonconference games, and they were fortunate to squeeze by Maryland at home by a deuce. I think Carsen Edwards is getting a bad rap. He has been as good as any player in the country, but there is simply no consistent second scoring option on this roster. Ryan Cline appears to have broken out of his recent shooting slump, but he is still a one-dimensional player. Nojel Eastern and Matt Haarms have not made the offensive improvements I was anticipating. Purdue is always going to play hard and defend well, and having the best offensive player in the conference is a major asset. But the Big Ten is going to present serious challenges most every night, and I’m not sure Purdue will be up to it.
St. John’s (12-1, No. 51 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
Yes, the Johnnies went through the nonconference slate undefeated, but they played exactly one opponent ranked in the top 100 on KenPom. That didn’t just overinflate their stock; it also prepared them poorly for the rigors of Big East play, as evidenced by their blowing a 14-point lead to lose at Seton Hall on Saturday. This team has little size up front, and despite all those easy wins, Chris Mullin is getting little production from his bench. I also am curious to see how Shamorie Ponds and Mustapha Heron are going to play together with just one basketball.
Seton Hall (10-3, No. 57 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
The Pirates have very quietly put together a good record and proven they can beat good teams. They took advantage of their high-profile opportunity against Kentucky, and they scored a tough win at Maryland and took care of business at home against St. John’s on Saturday. Although it tends to rely on him too heavily, Seton Hall has an aggressive, clutch bucket-getter in 6-2 junior guard Myles Powell. If the Pirates can find a steady second option (6-6 sophomore Myles Cale is potentially the best choice), they should win enough games to get a decent seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Syracuse (9-4, No. 30 KenPom)
Rating: Buy Plus
If you are scoffing at this bold rating, then you should brush up on your history. Last year, the Orange lost four straight ACC games in January, dropped four of five down the stretch in the regular season, surprised everyone by getting invited to the NCAA Tournament … and then reached the Sweet 16, where they gave Duke all it could handle before losing by four. Syracuse did not lose a single key player from that team and has added a couple of promising freshmen and transfers. Yes, the Orange looked awful while losing at home to Old Dominion and Buffalo, but I don’t believe they are nearly as bad as they’ve played. For whatever reason, Jim Boeheim’s teams tend to struggle on offense early in the season, but no one wants to face that zone in the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee (11-1, No. 3 AP, No. 11 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
This would appear to be another team that has nowhere to go but down, but it’s hard to look at the schedule and see where the losses will happen. The game at Florida in two weeks won’t be easy, but the Vols don’t have to play at Arkansas, and their games against Kentucky (home and away) and Auburn (away) don’t arrive until mid-February. So we should get used to seeing this smart, tough, veteran, talented and well-coached team sit right where it is for the foreseeable future.
Robinson is second in the country in assists, with 8.6 per game (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today)
TCU (11-1, No. 23 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
For some odd reason, Jamie Dixon doesn’t like to play a challenging nonconference schedule. The Horned Frogs have yet to play a road game, and no opponent is in KenPom’s top 50. But make no mistake, this is a really good basketball team. It has a smart, veteran perimeter trio in Alex Robinson, Jaylen Fisher and Demond Bane and a microwave sixth man in 6-7 sophomore forward Kouat Noi. I also love how 6-11 freshman Kevin Samuels gives them a big body on the glass. Dixon is a much better offensive coach than anyone gives him credit for, and that should help TCU fare well in the wide-open race for second place in the Big 12.
Texas (8-4, No. 35 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
This is not an easy team to evaluate. The Longhorns have defeated Arkansas and North Carolina on neutral courts and beat Purdue at home by four, yet they also lost at home to Radford, VCU and Providence. There are some good pieces here, but the main problem has been that the players Texas depend on the most are undependable. Matt Coleman and Kerwin Roach are supposed to provide veteran leadership in the backcourt, but their spotty shot selection and unreliable touch leads to extended offensive droughts. Jericho Sims, a 6-9 sophomore forward, was supposed to anchor the middle, but 6-11 freshman Jaxson Hayes has played better. Suffice to say, Shaka Smart has a lot to figure out as Big 12 play gets underway.
Texas Tech (11-1, No. 11 AP, No. 10 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
This is a tough, smart, highly efficient defensive squad, and any team that builds its identity on that end of the floor is going to have success in conference road games. I like that Texas Tech has a dynamic scoring talent in sophomore guard Jarrett Culver, but I don’t like that it is so reliant on him to generate offense. Not only does that make the Red Raiders easy to scout, it makes them vulnerable if Culver gets into foul trouble. Texas Tech is probably the second-best team in the Big 12, but given where this team is ranked, it’s hard for me to stretch this rating into a Buy.
UCLA (7-6, No. 80 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
(Editor’s note: Since this writing, Steve Alford has been fired, per reporting from Seth Davis, in fact.)
Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse for Steve Alford, the Bruins lose at home to Liberty by 15 points. UCLA isn’t just losing games, it’s getting blown out — by 20 points to Michigan State, 16 to North Carolina, 29 to Cincinnati. There was also that two-point home loss to Belmont. Alford has a monumental challenge ahead of him in warding off the distracting chatter about his job security. Given how tall and young this team is, I think he is making the right move by committing to a zone defense, but unless the wins start coming, it is going to be a long couple of months in Westwood.
UConn (9-4, No. 89 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
When a team’s league is having a down year, it can go one of two ways. Either we say the league is down so it has a chance for a high finish, in which case Buy. Or a down league means there are not enough quality wins to be had, in which case Sell. With UConn, I’m going with the latter. There is no shame in losing to Villanova, but UConn got run out of Madison Square Garden in the second half by a team that had just lost consecutive games and was playing without its starting point guard. The Huskies have some capable bucket-getting guards in Jalen Adems, Alterique Gilbert and Christian Vital, but too often those guys put their heads down and try to do it themselves. That’s why UConn ranks 283rd nationally in assists to made field goals. Danny Hurley is doing his best to instill toughness and effort into this program, but culture can only get a new coach so far.
Villanova (9-4, No. 20 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This team is obviously not as talented or experienced as it has been the last few years, but you can see that traditional mental toughness emerging. I love the way the Wildcats bounced back from their disappointing loss to Penn by taking Kansas to the wire in Allen Fieldhouse. Then they eviscerated UConn by 23 points in Madison Square Garden. Beyond the veteran nucleus of Phil Booth, Eric Paschall and Collin Gillespie, Villanova has some good young players who have shown flashes but have yet to become consistent performers. It’s only a matter of time until that happens.
Virginia (11-0, No. 4 AP, No. 2 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
It is a shame that one fluke loss drives the way so many people look at this program, but that’s what makes the Cavaliers such a smart Buy right now. This might be the most versatile offensive team Tony Bennett has coached. Virginia has three players (Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy and De’Andre Hunter) who can get their own buckets late in the shot clock. That is crucial given that this is the slowest team in the country and ranks second nationally in turnover percentage. You have to beat the Cavs playing their way, not yours, and they are better playing their way than you are. Plus, I believe this team has the mental makeup to play through the shadow of last year’s pratfall against UMBC. Dump this stock at your financial peril.
Virginia Tech (11-1, No. 10 AP, No. 9 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I like this team, but this is an easy call. The Hokies climbed up the polls largely on the basis of a neutral-court win over Purdue on Nov. 18. That win looks less impressive in the rearview mirror. Virginia Tech lost the only road game it has played, at Penn State on Nov. 27. That indicates this is an overinflated stock that is bound to come down in price once ACC play begins, including upcoming games at Virginia and North Carolina. The Hokies have excellent quickness, toughness and perimeter skills (sophomore guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a budding star), but they are short on size and depth. Those deficiencies would be bolstered if last year’s leading rebounder, 6-6 senior forward Chris Clarke, comes back from suspension, but there is no indication yet when (or if) that will happen.
Washington (8-4, No. 52 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
It would not surprise me if the Huskies won the Pac-12. They won every game they were supposed to win during the nonconference, and they had some very respectable losses – on neutral courts to Minnesota (by two) and Virginia Tech (seven) and a near-upset at Gonzaga before losing at the buzzer, 81-79. Mike Hopkins has a scoring dynamo in 6-4 sophomore guard Jaylen Nowell (16.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 40.5 percent from 3), and the Huskies are playing the Syracuse zone better than Syracuse right now. If they get into the NCAA Tournament, they will be a tough out.
West Virginia (8-4, No. 50 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I realize it’s usually not a good idea to bet against Bob Huggins, but even the best coaches need good players, and the Mountaineers don’t have enough of those. The team does not have guards nearly as good as Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles were a year ago. They have a premier shot blocker and rebounder in 6-8 junior Sagaba Konate, but that is not enough to fuel the vaunted Press Virginia swarming defense. There are not a lot of great teams in the Big 12 this year (besides Kansas, of course), but there are plenty of good ones, and that will present West Virginia with a mountain that is just too high to climb.
Wisconsin (10-3, No. 15 AP, No. 14 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
Saturday’s loss at Western Kentucky doesn’t bother me. That was a classic trap game that the Badgers scheduled as part of a football contract. That aside, this is a good team that will more than hold its own in the Big Ten. Wins over Oklahoma (neutral) and North Carolina State (at home) look even better today, and the overtime loss at Marquette showed the Badgers have toughness. Much like Virginia, they have a style and roster makeup that is made for the long term. They play at a slow pace (346th nationally in tempo), take care of the ball (sixth in turnover percentage) and are dedicated to defense (11th in efficiency). You know how good Ethan Happ is, but sophomore guard D’Mitrik Trice has also established himself one of the nation’s more dangerous outside threats.
Under Capel, the Panthers have already surpassed their win total from last season. (Ben Queen/USA Today)
Ten sleeper stocks
Belmont (9-2, No. 74 KenPom). The seventh-fastest team in the country has beaten Lipscomb twice and knocked off UCLA in Pauley Pavilion. The Bruins are the team to beat – again – in the OVC.
Boston College (9-2, No. 95 KenPom). The Eagles have an All-ACC caliber guard in 6-1 junior Ky Bowman, who despite his size pulls down 7.6 rebounds per game to go along with 18.8 points. They beat Minnesota at home and took Providence to overtime before losing by five.
Davidson (9-4, No. 88 KenPom). No one is saying Kellan Grady is the next Stephen Curry, but the Wildcats’ 6-5 sophomore is the best pro prospect in the Atlantic 10.
Lipscomb (9-3, No. 56 KenPom). The Bisons won at SMU, handed TCU its only loss of the season and gave Louisville all it wanted in the KFC Yum! Center before losing by four.
Murray State (9-2, No. 62 KenPom). If you haven’t seen Ja Morant yet, do so immediately. The 6-3 sophomore point guard is Gumby with a basketball, and he leads the nation in assists (9.3) while scoring 23 points per game. No wonder he’s Kevin Durant’s favorite player
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Old Dominion (10-3, No. 71 KenPom). That win in the Carrier Dome was no fluke. The Monarchs have also used their Virginia-esque style to beat Northern Iowa and VCU at home. They are the favorite to win Conference USA.
Pittsburgh (10-3, No. 83 KenPom). Under first-year coach Jeff Capel, the Panthers have already surpassed last year’s win total (not hard to do), but even more impressive is that two of their losses came by a point.
San Francisco (12-2, No. 44 KenPom). Bill Russell is not coming through that door, but the Dons gave Buffalo a tough challenge in Ireland before losing by four, and they claimed Bay Area supremacy with wins over Cal and Stanford.
UCF (10-2, No. 38 KenPom). The race for first place in the American is widely thought to be between Cincinnati and Houston, but don’t count out Johnny Dawkins’ Knights, who are spearheaded by the veteran backcourt of BJ Taylor and Aubrey Dawkins, not to mention their vertically imposing center, 7-6 senior Tacko Fall.
Vanderbilt (8-3, No. 63 KenPom). I thought when freshman point guard Darius Garland was lost for the season with a meniscus injury, it would be curtains for the Commodores, but 6-2 sophomore Saben Lee has stepped in admirably and led the team to a win over Arizona State at home. There is still enough talent on this roster to make the NCAA Tournament.
Five to dump (if you haven’t already)
California (5-7, No. 209 KenPom). The Bears closed out the nonconference season with an 82-73 loss at home to Seattle on Saturday night. They have only one win over a team ranked above 200 on KenPom. Even in a bad year in the Pac-12, this team is really bad.
George Washington (4-9, No. 273 KenPom). The controversy around this program may be a thing of the past, but it appears winning is a thing of the distant future.
Illinois (4-9, No. 114 KenPom). I slated the Illini for this list even before their home loss on Saturday to Florida Atlantic. Illinois undoubtedly played an overambitious nonconference schedule, but losses to Xavier (by nine) and Missouri (16) don’t bode well for what awaits in the rugged Big Ten.
Monmouth (0-12, No. 300 KenPom). It’s amazing how far this program has fallen after going 55-15 from 2015-17.
Wake Forest (6-5, No. 158 KenPom). The Demon Deacons took a bad hit when two players who had no business entering the NBA Draft last spring did just that (and predictably went undrafted). They have lost at home to Houston Baptist and by 10 points on the road to a pretty bad Richmond team. Then on Saturday, they lost to Gardner Webb at home, 73-69. The ACC will be unforgiving, to say the least.
Seth Davis / The ATHLETIC
Well, that was quite the vertiginous vortex, wasn’t it? I’m not just talking about the way the Dow and the S&P finished 2018. I’m talking about college hoops. What, you didn’t anticipate that Furman would beat half of last year’s Final Four … on the road? You didn’t tell all your friends Arizona State would beat top-ranked Kansas … and then lose at home to Princeton one week later? From bulls to bears to everything in between, college hoops is va-va-vooming with volatility. We wouldn’t have it any other way.
The problem is, we’re not just fans, we’re Hoop Thinkers. We’re invested. We don’t just want to know what has happened, we need to know what is going to happen. Fortunately, your coveted, annual turn-of-the-calendar guide has arrived. I herewith present my annual Hoop Thoughts Stock Report, wherein your resident Hoop Thinker rates all of the major programs Buy, Hold or Sell as conference play gets underway.
Most of you know the drill. I have assessed each team’s market value based on record, rankings and buzz. Then I’ve laid out the reasons why that team’s stock price will rise, fall or hold steady over the next three months. Because you are savvy shoppers, you understand the counterintuitive dynamic at play. The better a team is, the higher its stock price, and therefore the more likely I am to rate it a Sell. A team that has suffered many losses and is undervalued inclines me toward a Buy. Ergo, just because I rate one team a Buy and another a Sell does not mean I believe the Buy team is better than the Sell program. Got it?
Between my 50 ratings, plus my 10 sleeper stocks and five to dump, I have given you the skinny on 65 programs at this most pivotal time. So read carefully and shop smartly. There’s going to be a lot more turbulence before the 2018-19 season touches down three months from now in Minneapolis, so we might as well enjoy the ride.
Happy New Year, hoopheads.
Arizona (9-4, No. 54 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
This stock price is so low there’s no sense selling it, but given how weak the Pac-12 is, I think there’s a good chance the Wildcats will finish in the top three. That would put them in position to make the NCAA Tournament – maybe. KenPom ranks Arizona 202nd nationally in experience, but that is misleading because even the older players, including two grad transfers, are playing new roles. That tells me there is lots of potential for improvement. Sophomore forward Brandon Randolph and freshman guard Brandon Williams are the most talented guys on this team, and while Arizona took a few lumps in the nonconference, the challenging schedule prepared the Wildcats for the start of league play.
Arizona State (9-3, No. 17 AP, No. 49 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
This stock took a beating as a result of that home loss to Princeton on Saturday, but I still think these Sun Devils are better equipped for long-term success than last year’s group. They’re tougher for starters, thanks to the presence of their elite-level, glass-eating glue-guy, 6-8 senior forward Zylan Cheatham, plus they have terrific offensive balance. And you could do a lot worse than hand over your hard-earned dollars to freshman guard Luguentz Dort. Maybe the loss to Princeton will serve as a lesson on the importance of being ready for every opponent.
Auburn (11-2, No. 12 AP, No. 12 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
There’s not a ton of upside to this stock, but I still say this is a good time to scoop it up. The Tigers have been sputtering the last couple of weeks, barely escaping UAB in overtime before falling on the road against a good N.C. State team on Dec. 19. I believe they’ll be re-energized for the start of SEC play. I also like how the schedule falls for them. They don’t play at Kentucky until Feb. 23, and their lone meeting with Tennessee is at home. In addition, Auburn just returned an important piece in 6-7 junior forward Danjel Purifoy, who missed all of last season and the first eight games this season because of eligibility issues. Once he gets comfortable, this team’s depth and overall speed will be significantly enhanced.
Buffalo (12-1, No. 21 AP, No. 29 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
It may take some time for the Bulls to fall out of the Top 25, but it’s fair to say they won’t rise any higher. In retrospect, their road wins over West Virginia and Syracuse are not quite the validators they appeared to be at the time. And it was disconcerting to watch them get blown out by 18 points at Marquette. Now that MAC play is starting, Buffalo is going to have a huge target on its back. Hopefully, the Bulls will tighten up their defense and not be so reliant on jump-shooting as March approaches, because this can still be a dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament.
Butler (9-4, No. 37 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
The Bulldogs beat Florida in the Bahamas during Thanksgiving week. Besides that, there’s not a lot to suggest they are headed for a top-three Big East finish, especially in light of Saturday’s embarrassing 34-point loss to those same Gators in Gainesville. Butler’s half-court offense is just OK, partly because leading scorer Kamar Baldwin, a 6-1 junior guard, is only shooting 28 percent from 3-point range, down from 33 percent a year ago. The Bulldogs don’t get to the foul line enough (289th nationally in free throw rate), don’t clean up their misses (204th in offensive rebound percentage) and don’t generate much offense off their defense (257th in steal percentage). In other words, this is not a stock you want to own heading into conference play.
Cincinnati (11-2, No. 27 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This stock is woefully undervalued. The Bearcats dropped their opener at home against Ohio State and got beat up pretty good at Mississippi State. Otherwise, this has been a typical Mick Cronin team. Cincinnati plays tough defense (12th nationally in efficiency) and a slow tempo (348th), and lately, the Bearcats have shown signs of life on the offensive end. With Justin Jenifer, who leads the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, running the show, Cincinnati will not give opponents many extra possessions, and 6-5 junior forward Jarron Cumberland is an elite-level bucket-getter. Plus, in a down year in the American, it’s hard to see the Bearcats losing more than two or three games over the next two months.
Duke (11-1, No. 1 AP, No. 1 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
I generally like buying young teams this time of year (the Blue Devils are the seventh-youngest in the country in KenPom’s experience metric). Yet given this team’s lofty station, a Buy rating would mean I think it is going to win a national championship, and I am just not there yet – precisely because the Devils are so young. For all the obvious assets I spy a few canaries in this coal mine. Duke’s 3-point shooting is unreliable, which makes its half-court offense easier to defend. Its bench is short, which makes it vulnerable to foul trouble and bad matchups. It has yet to play a true road game, so it’s bound to get clipped. And R.J. Barrett seems unable or unwilling to set up his teammates, which is a problem since he is so ball-dominant. I love that this team is developing its identity around a man-to-man defense that fuels the running game, but while Duke must be on any short list of title contenders, it does not yet reside at the top of mine. So let’s pump the brakes a little.
Florida (8-4, No. 17 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
The Gators finally got a signature win when they thrashed Butler on Saturday. They have had a very challenging nonconference schedule, and while they lost all four of their toughest games, I believe that prepared them well for SEC play. It’s always tough when you start a freshman point guard, but Andrew Nembhard (7.3 points, 5.8 assists) has shown he is capable of handling that responsibility. Florida is not a good jump-shooting team and is even worse from the foul line, but it appears to be building its identity around defense (eight nationally in efficiency) and controlling pace (331st in tempo). That’s the kind of style that can get you a few ugly wins on the road. And it has to be only a matter of time before Jalen Hudson remembers how to play basketball again, right?
Florida State (11-1, No. 9 AP, No. 16 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I like the Seminoles, but are they really the ninth-best team in the country? With their ACC opener coming at Virginia on Saturday and a home date with Duke happening a week later, this is an ideal time to sell. Also consider that Florida State’s best win came by one point at home against Purdue, which isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Once again, Leonard Hamilton has a long, athletic team that only just welcomed back last year’s leading scorer, 6-8 senior forward Phil Cofer, from a foot injury. At some point, though, inconsistent perimeter shooting and sloppiness with the ball is bound to cost the Seminoles a few games. I’m also concerned that Florida State is ranked 284th in the country in defensive free throw rate. That propensity to foul makes a big difference in close games.
Clarke is averaging 17.1 points and 8.4 rebounds while shooting 70.7 percent from the field. (James Snook/USA Today)
Gonzaga (11-2, No. 7 AP, No. 3 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
I was tempted to rate the Zags a Buy-Plus, because even though they lost two straight earlier this month (after beating Washington by just two points at home), they remain my favorite to win the national championship. How many teams can say they have a frontrunner for national player of the year (Rui Machimura), yet he has arguably been the second-best player on his own team (next to San Jose State transfer Brandon Clarke)? Most of all, Gonzaga’s leading returning scorer, 6-10 junior forward Killian Tillie, is about to come back from the right ankle injury that has kept him out the entire season. They are also without Geno Crandall, the 6-3 grad transfer who at some point is bound to recapture the long-range shooting prowess he showed at North Dakota. Throw in the fact that point guard Josh Perkins has been in a slump and the West Coast Conference looks rather weak, and it’s easy to see the Zags not losing another game between now and the tournament.
Houston (13-0, No. 22 AP, No. 33 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
When a team is undefeated against a strength of schedule ranked No. 327 in the country, then it would seem smart to sell its stock as conference play is getting underway. But when you look at the Cougars’ schedule the next four weeks, it’s hard to see when the first loss will come. They play at Temple on Jan. 9, but beyond that, the toughest road games (UCF, UConn, Cincinnati) won’t happen until February. So I expect the Cougars will be undefeated a while longer. Houston doesn’t have a dominant scorer as it had last year in Rob Gray, but I like that it features two seniors and a junior among its top three scorers. With the American experiencing a down season, Houston is positioned to reap the benefits.
Indiana (11-2, No. 23 AP, No. 24 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
Having won four consecutive games earlier this month by a total of eight points, Indiana is teetering as it heads into a difficult stretch. Following their home game against Illinois on Thursday, the Hoosiers will play four of their next five on the road, and the home game against Nebraska is no cakewalk. For all the hype about Romeo Langford, this team is at its best when it is playing through 6-8 senior forward Juwan Morgan down low. Langford is a really good scorer, but he is also shooting 21 percent from 3-point range, and teams know how to scout an opponent. Throw in a freshman point guard in Rob Phinisee, who is going through the gauntlet of league play for the first time, and this team is bound to lose a few it shouldn’t. Indiana’s spot in the Top 25 is going to be short-lived.
Iowa (11-2, No. 24 AP, No. 41 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I’m not sure why a home win over Iowa State and neutral-court victories over Oregon and UConn merit a place in the Top 25, but I don’t expect the Hawkeyes to be there for long. They got eviscerated at Michigan State by 22 points on Dec. 3, and they get the Spartans again in Iowa City in late January. We’ve seen some really bad late-season swoons from Iowa the last few years, and while I would be surprised if that happens with this group, I still don’t think this is a good enough defensive team to put together a top-tier Big Ten finish.
Iowa State (10-2, No. 18 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This rating is based on the singular fact that the Cyclones are hosting Kansas on Saturday. With sophomore guard Lindell Wigginton recovered from his foot injury (he scored 15 points in his return against Eastern Illinois), and with Udoka Azubuike just returning for Kansas from an ankle injury, why not take a chance on Hilton Magic providing a tidy profit this weekend? Besides, this is a good purchase over the long term. Without their best player, the Cyclones looked pretty solid the first two months, losing only to Arizona and Iowa, both away from home. The additions of 6-6 senior forward Marial Shayok, a transfer from Virginia, and freshman guard Talen Horton-Tucker look to be paying off as well.
Kansas (11-1, No. 5 AP, No. 6 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This is a good time to scoop up the Jayhawks given that their stock has suffered a minor correction, not just with their loss at Arizona State but also the close calls against Stanford, New Mexico State and Villanova. There are three reasons to be bullish on this stock. First and foremost, 7-foot junior center Udoka Azubuike is back from the ankle injury that sidelined him for most of December. Second, the loss to the Sun Devils was surely a gift to Bill Self, who I’m sure spent most of the holiday week telling his players how soft they are. Third, while there are plenty of good teams in the Big 12, there is an unusually large gap between KU and the rest of the conference. I’m a little concerned about that mercurial freshman backcourt, but other than that, Kansas at the start of conference play is about as safe a purchase as the market offers year after year.
Kansas State (10-2, No. 32 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I sensed the Wildcats were a little overrated coming into the season based on their surprising dash to the Elite Eight last year. They were rather underwhelming in the early going, dropping back-to-back games to Marquette and Tulsa in early December, and now they will be without their leading scorer and rebounder, Dean Wade, for a few more weeks because of a foot injury. Wade has a history of foot issues, so even when he comes back you have to wonder about his durability. Kansas State’s offensive shortcomings will be a major problem as it navigates through a Big 12 that has no weak teams.
Kentucky (10-2, No. 16 AP, No. 13 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
Hopefully, you were smart enough to hold onto this stock even as it went through those early stumbles. We’ve seen this movie too many times before. Kentucky is the third-youngest team in the country, and though it was disruptive to lose sophomore guard Quade Green to a midseason transfer, his departure helped clear the decks on the rotation. It certainly established freshman Ashton Hagans as a defensive stopper, which was badly needed on a team whose perimeter D had been so suspect the first two months, and it appears to have unleashed Tyler Herro, who had a game-high 24 points in Saturday’s big win at Louisville. It’s a little scary that the Wildcats have to play all three of the top contenders in the SEC (Tennessee, Auburn, Florida) twice, not to mention that they have a home date with Kansas on Jan. 26, but in this case, I choose to view those games as stock-boosting opportunities.
Louisville (9-4, No. 42 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I wanted to wait until after the Kentucky game to rate the Cardinals, and unfortunately, they made this an easy decision. Seeing them get outclassed on their home floor laid bare the talent gap this team will face in the ACC. Even on a day where the Wildcats had a hard time making 3-pointers, Louisville couldn’t generate enough offense to win. That’s going to be a major problem when the Cardinals get to February and face a brutally back-loaded conference schedule. Toughness and effort are admirable qualities, but they can carry a team only so far.
Marquette (11-2, No. 18 AP, No. 28 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This is another stock I considered rating a Buy Plus, mostly because I don’t think people realize that the Golden Eagles are the team to beat in the Big East. That was a really good Buffalo team they sliced up 10 days ago, which came courtesy of a 45-point explosion from 5-11 junior guard Markus Howard. That was Howard’s second 45-point game in December, and I love that he is averaging more than seven free throws per game. So it’s not like Marquette is susceptible if he has a bad shooting night. The Eagles have a tough interior defender in 6-9 sophomore Theo John and a pair of potent stretch-fours in the Hauser brothers, Sam and Joey. With the league’s usual stalwarts, Villanova and Xavier, experiencing down years, Marquette is ready to rise to the top of the Big East standings.
Maryland (10-3, No. 31 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
As I’ve noted, it’s usually a smart strategy to buy young teams this time of year. The Terps are the fifth-youngest team in the country per KenPom, but they have considerable talent. Sophomore forward Bruno Fernando has made great strides since he arrived in College Park last year. He is shooting 69 percent from the floor, which ranks ninth nationally, and he is getting better at passing out of double-teams. He and 6-10 freshman Jalen Smith are as formidable a front-court tandem as you will find. I also like that four of Maryland’s next six Big Ten games are at home, including potential stock-boosting matchups against Nebraska, Indiana and Wisconsin.
Memphis (8-5, No. 103 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
The excitement about the future in Memphis under Penny Hardaway has run head-on into the reality of the present. And the reality is that this is a team with a low ceiling. The team’s two top-100 wins are against No. 70 South Dakota State and No. 97 Yale, both of which were at home and the latter of which required two overtimes. The Tigers have some good senior leaders in 6-3 guard Jeremiah Martin and 6-8 forward Kyvon Davenport as well as an exciting freshman point guard in Tyler Harris, but they are not disciplined enough defensively to make the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan (13-0, No. 2 AP, No. 4 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
Last year at this time, the Wolverines were unranked, so I rated them a Buy-Plus. I don’t believe they will fall far, but I do think they have no place to go but down. They looked like world-beaters in the early going, beating Villanova and North Carolina by 27 and 17 points, respectively, but lately, they have looked like just another really good basketball team. (Michigan almost lost at Northwestern on Nov. 28 before winning by two.) I’m a little concerned that John Beilein is basically playing six guys, but mostly I awarded this rating because I think the Big Ten is really good. It’s hard to sustain this type of defensive intensity over 2½ months with such a short bench. The Wolverines are bound to drop a few during conference play before reconstituting themselves for their usual March run.
Michigan State (11-2, No. 8 AP, No. 5 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
It’s weird to say a top-10 team is flying under the radar, but with all the excitement surrounding Michigan, it seems to me as if people are sleeping on the Spartans. But you’d be hard-pressed to find an example of a team that has a veteran guard tandem as good as Cassius Winston and Josh Langford, plus a legitimate post threat in Nick Ward. The role players understand their roles, and of course, nobody coaches toughness better than Tom Izzo. It says here that if Michigan State stays healthy, it will win the Big Ten.
Minnesota (11-2, No. 61 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This team is unranked and undervalued, but coaches around the Big Ten know how dangerous the Gophers can be. Conference play is usually an ugly, physical grind, and not many teams in the league are built for that better than this one. The Gophers have a stud rebounder and post scorer in 6-7 senior forward Jordan Murphy, and 6-10 freshman Daniel Oturu is starting to come on strong. The outside shooting tends to disappear for long stretches, but they compensate by ranking fifth in the country in offensive rebound percentage and offensive free throw rate. And junior Amir Coffey gives this team a different look as a 6-8 point guard.
Mississippi State (12-1, No. 19 AP, No. 21 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
For a team that has been ranked every week and has some notable wins over Dayton (road), Clemson (neutral) and Cincinnati (home), the Bulldogs are generating absolutely no buzz. That is going to change once conference play gets underway. We usually think of Ben Howland’s teams as less than entertaining, but this one ranks 20th nationally in offensive efficiency. Senior guard Quinndary Weatherspoon is one of the better two-way players in the country. Later this month the Bulldogs have a date at Kentucky followed by a home game against Auburn. Even if they only split those, you’ll make some money on this purchase.
Missouri (9-3, No. 72 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
Everyone (myself included) left the Tigers for dead after Jontay Porter got hurt in the preseason, but they are showing some signs of life lately with wins over UCF, Xavier and Illinois. With Porter’s injury robbing Missouri of its best offensive threat, Cuonzo Martin can go back to emphasizing the things he does best, which is teaching hard-nosed defense and how to slow the pace. The point guard play scares me (Mizzou ranks ninth in the SEC in turnovers, at 13.6 per game), but freshman wing Javon Pickett has room for growth, and with Jeremiah Tilmon and Kevin Puryear down low, no one will push this team around. Moreover, I like that Missouri only has to play Kentucky and Auburn once each.
Nebraska (11-2, No. 15 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
I have consistently ranked the Cornhuskers higher than my fellow AP voters, so when they turn out to be a lot better than people think, you’ll know who was ahead of the curve (again). Nebraska won 10 of its final 12 regular-season games last year, and it has continued the momentum behind a nucleus of three seniors, including two fifth-year guys in 6-6 guard James Palmer and 6-9 forward Isaac Copeland. You can see by the team’s high KenPom ranking that it has played quality basketball while notching wins over Seton Hall and Creighton at home, plus Clemson on the road. In the next two weeks, Nebraska has challenging but winnable games at Maryland, Iowa and Indiana before facing Michigan State at home on Jan. 17. That’s a lot of chances for a veteran team to raise its stock price. Get ’em while you can still afford ’em.
Nevada (13-0, No. 6 AP, No. 8 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
You might say the Wolf Pack has nowhere to go but down – and you’d be wrong. This team, which starts five fifth-year seniors, came through a tough nonconference slate unscathed, and it is now poised to romp through the weakest Mountain West Conference we’ve seen in years. It also has a highly talented, former McDonald’s All-American freshman forward in Jordan Brown who has had a minimal impact but is bound to improve. And whereas we might wait for an undefeated team such as this to run out of gas and lose a trap game, I believe it is on a mission enter the NCAA Tournament undefeated. Throw in the fact that the teams ranked ahead of Nevada are bound to lose, and there’s a good chance the Wolf Pack will be undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the country on Selection Sunday. Does that sound like a stock you’d like to own 10 weeks hence?
North Carolina (9-3, No. 14 AP, No. 7 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I want to like this team, but I can’t shake the feeling that the Tar Heels are soft. The loss to Kentucky was galling given how poorly the Cats had been playing to that point. North Carolina took a punch early on and never mounted a credible counterattack. The defense is efficient but not disruptive, and while the Heels have two potent scorers in senior forwards Cameron Johnson and Luke Maye, those guys are jump-shooters, not drivers, and neither plays like an alpha male. The development of freshman point guard Coby White will be intriguing, but he is still learning to decide when to get his own buckets versus setting up his teammates.
N.C. State (12-1, No. 20 AP, No. 22 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
After romping through an early schedule that included five wins over teams ranked below No. 300 on KenPom, and after letting a golden opportunity at Wisconsin slip away in late November, the Wolfpack finally scored a signature win over Auburn two weeks ago. I do think N.C. State benefited from catching Auburn at a good time, but I also believe it has another price-boosting opportunity on Jan. 8 at home against North Carolina. Kevin Keatts has a deep bench that allows him to unleash an attacking, pressing defense. And you could do worse than betting long term on gritty, experienced guards Markell Johnson and Torin Dorn.
Northwestern (9-4, No. 47 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
Talk about a bargain. The Wildcats played three ranked teams — Indiana, Michigan and Oklahoma — to the wire but lost by a combined 11 points. (The seven-point loss to the Sooners came in overtime.) We should expect that a team working in two transfers should take some time to develop its chemistry, but I love the veteran leadership being provided on the front line by seniors Vic Law and Dererk Pardon, and unlike last year, when they had to play in suburban Chicago because of renovations to Welsh-Ryan Arena, the Wildcats have a real home court. I’d like to see Chris Collins develop his bench a little more, and I don’t like that the Wildcats have to play at Michigan State and Michigan in the next two weeks, but there are enough opportunities in the Big Ten for quality wins that I believe Northwestern will play its way into the NCAA Tournament.
Ohio State (12-1, No. 13 AP, No. 25 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
The Big Ten is too good for the Buckeyes’ stock to stay at its current price. While they did open with a solid win at Cincinnati, none of their wins have come against teams currently ranked in the Top 25. They resume conference play on Saturday with a home game against Michigan State, and they have brutal back-to-back road games next month at Nebraska and Michigan. I love sophomore forward Kaleb Wesson’s improvement as a post scorer, but I’m concerned the Buckeyes are not generating more offense from behind the 3-point line. That tells me they are operating with a small margin for error.
Oklahoma (11-1, No. 25 AP, No. 26 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
You could do a lot worse than hand over your cash to Lon Kruger. We usually think of him as a terrific offensive coach, but the Sooners are ranked ninth in the country in defensive efficiency. They are also fifth nationally in defensive free throw rate. I love this team, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Oklahoma emerges as Kansas’ primary challenger in the Big 12. Without Trae Young, Oklahoma is an older, more balanced team. Christian James, a 6-4 senior, is a big, strong guard who can score from anywhere on the floor, and he plays on a roster with lots of versatile athletes.
Oregon (9-4, No. 39 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
It’s not even January, and already it feels like a lost season in Eugene. The Ducks were facing a rebuilding project following the loss of three starters, but a rash of injuries has squelched whatever hope was left. Just when prized freshman Louis King was returning from a knee injury he suffered as a high school senior, another prized freshman, 7-2 center Bol Bol, who leads the team in scoring, rebounds and blocks, was shelved by a lower leg injury. There is no indication when he will be back. Oregon will also be without 6-9 sophomore Kenny Wooten (broken jaw) for at least another month, and 6-7 sophomore forward Abu Kigab (foot) for another week or so. Besides that, this team is the picture of perfect health.
Purdue (8-5, No. 19 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I am guessing that the Boilermakers’ lofty KenPom ranking is a reflection of their schedule, which ranks as the 10th-strongest in the country. The problem is they lost all of their tough nonconference games, and they were fortunate to squeeze by Maryland at home by a deuce. I think Carsen Edwards is getting a bad rap. He has been as good as any player in the country, but there is simply no consistent second scoring option on this roster. Ryan Cline appears to have broken out of his recent shooting slump, but he is still a one-dimensional player. Nojel Eastern and Matt Haarms have not made the offensive improvements I was anticipating. Purdue is always going to play hard and defend well, and having the best offensive player in the conference is a major asset. But the Big Ten is going to present serious challenges most every night, and I’m not sure Purdue will be up to it.
St. John’s (12-1, No. 51 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
Yes, the Johnnies went through the nonconference slate undefeated, but they played exactly one opponent ranked in the top 100 on KenPom. That didn’t just overinflate their stock; it also prepared them poorly for the rigors of Big East play, as evidenced by their blowing a 14-point lead to lose at Seton Hall on Saturday. This team has little size up front, and despite all those easy wins, Chris Mullin is getting little production from his bench. I also am curious to see how Shamorie Ponds and Mustapha Heron are going to play together with just one basketball.
Seton Hall (10-3, No. 57 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
The Pirates have very quietly put together a good record and proven they can beat good teams. They took advantage of their high-profile opportunity against Kentucky, and they scored a tough win at Maryland and took care of business at home against St. John’s on Saturday. Although it tends to rely on him too heavily, Seton Hall has an aggressive, clutch bucket-getter in 6-2 junior guard Myles Powell. If the Pirates can find a steady second option (6-6 sophomore Myles Cale is potentially the best choice), they should win enough games to get a decent seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Syracuse (9-4, No. 30 KenPom)
Rating: Buy Plus
If you are scoffing at this bold rating, then you should brush up on your history. Last year, the Orange lost four straight ACC games in January, dropped four of five down the stretch in the regular season, surprised everyone by getting invited to the NCAA Tournament … and then reached the Sweet 16, where they gave Duke all it could handle before losing by four. Syracuse did not lose a single key player from that team and has added a couple of promising freshmen and transfers. Yes, the Orange looked awful while losing at home to Old Dominion and Buffalo, but I don’t believe they are nearly as bad as they’ve played. For whatever reason, Jim Boeheim’s teams tend to struggle on offense early in the season, but no one wants to face that zone in the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee (11-1, No. 3 AP, No. 11 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
This would appear to be another team that has nowhere to go but down, but it’s hard to look at the schedule and see where the losses will happen. The game at Florida in two weeks won’t be easy, but the Vols don’t have to play at Arkansas, and their games against Kentucky (home and away) and Auburn (away) don’t arrive until mid-February. So we should get used to seeing this smart, tough, veteran, talented and well-coached team sit right where it is for the foreseeable future.
Robinson is second in the country in assists, with 8.6 per game (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today)
TCU (11-1, No. 23 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
For some odd reason, Jamie Dixon doesn’t like to play a challenging nonconference schedule. The Horned Frogs have yet to play a road game, and no opponent is in KenPom’s top 50. But make no mistake, this is a really good basketball team. It has a smart, veteran perimeter trio in Alex Robinson, Jaylen Fisher and Demond Bane and a microwave sixth man in 6-7 sophomore forward Kouat Noi. I also love how 6-11 freshman Kevin Samuels gives them a big body on the glass. Dixon is a much better offensive coach than anyone gives him credit for, and that should help TCU fare well in the wide-open race for second place in the Big 12.
Texas (8-4, No. 35 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
This is not an easy team to evaluate. The Longhorns have defeated Arkansas and North Carolina on neutral courts and beat Purdue at home by four, yet they also lost at home to Radford, VCU and Providence. There are some good pieces here, but the main problem has been that the players Texas depend on the most are undependable. Matt Coleman and Kerwin Roach are supposed to provide veteran leadership in the backcourt, but their spotty shot selection and unreliable touch leads to extended offensive droughts. Jericho Sims, a 6-9 sophomore forward, was supposed to anchor the middle, but 6-11 freshman Jaxson Hayes has played better. Suffice to say, Shaka Smart has a lot to figure out as Big 12 play gets underway.
Texas Tech (11-1, No. 11 AP, No. 10 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
This is a tough, smart, highly efficient defensive squad, and any team that builds its identity on that end of the floor is going to have success in conference road games. I like that Texas Tech has a dynamic scoring talent in sophomore guard Jarrett Culver, but I don’t like that it is so reliant on him to generate offense. Not only does that make the Red Raiders easy to scout, it makes them vulnerable if Culver gets into foul trouble. Texas Tech is probably the second-best team in the Big 12, but given where this team is ranked, it’s hard for me to stretch this rating into a Buy.
UCLA (7-6, No. 80 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
(Editor’s note: Since this writing, Steve Alford has been fired, per reporting from Seth Davis, in fact.)
Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse for Steve Alford, the Bruins lose at home to Liberty by 15 points. UCLA isn’t just losing games, it’s getting blown out — by 20 points to Michigan State, 16 to North Carolina, 29 to Cincinnati. There was also that two-point home loss to Belmont. Alford has a monumental challenge ahead of him in warding off the distracting chatter about his job security. Given how tall and young this team is, I think he is making the right move by committing to a zone defense, but unless the wins start coming, it is going to be a long couple of months in Westwood.
UConn (9-4, No. 89 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
When a team’s league is having a down year, it can go one of two ways. Either we say the league is down so it has a chance for a high finish, in which case Buy. Or a down league means there are not enough quality wins to be had, in which case Sell. With UConn, I’m going with the latter. There is no shame in losing to Villanova, but UConn got run out of Madison Square Garden in the second half by a team that had just lost consecutive games and was playing without its starting point guard. The Huskies have some capable bucket-getting guards in Jalen Adems, Alterique Gilbert and Christian Vital, but too often those guys put their heads down and try to do it themselves. That’s why UConn ranks 283rd nationally in assists to made field goals. Danny Hurley is doing his best to instill toughness and effort into this program, but culture can only get a new coach so far.
Villanova (9-4, No. 20 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
This team is obviously not as talented or experienced as it has been the last few years, but you can see that traditional mental toughness emerging. I love the way the Wildcats bounced back from their disappointing loss to Penn by taking Kansas to the wire in Allen Fieldhouse. Then they eviscerated UConn by 23 points in Madison Square Garden. Beyond the veteran nucleus of Phil Booth, Eric Paschall and Collin Gillespie, Villanova has some good young players who have shown flashes but have yet to become consistent performers. It’s only a matter of time until that happens.
Virginia (11-0, No. 4 AP, No. 2 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
It is a shame that one fluke loss drives the way so many people look at this program, but that’s what makes the Cavaliers such a smart Buy right now. This might be the most versatile offensive team Tony Bennett has coached. Virginia has three players (Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy and De’Andre Hunter) who can get their own buckets late in the shot clock. That is crucial given that this is the slowest team in the country and ranks second nationally in turnover percentage. You have to beat the Cavs playing their way, not yours, and they are better playing their way than you are. Plus, I believe this team has the mental makeup to play through the shadow of last year’s pratfall against UMBC. Dump this stock at your financial peril.
Virginia Tech (11-1, No. 10 AP, No. 9 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I like this team, but this is an easy call. The Hokies climbed up the polls largely on the basis of a neutral-court win over Purdue on Nov. 18. That win looks less impressive in the rearview mirror. Virginia Tech lost the only road game it has played, at Penn State on Nov. 27. That indicates this is an overinflated stock that is bound to come down in price once ACC play begins, including upcoming games at Virginia and North Carolina. The Hokies have excellent quickness, toughness and perimeter skills (sophomore guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a budding star), but they are short on size and depth. Those deficiencies would be bolstered if last year’s leading rebounder, 6-6 senior forward Chris Clarke, comes back from suspension, but there is no indication yet when (or if) that will happen.
Washington (8-4, No. 52 KenPom)
Rating: Buy
It would not surprise me if the Huskies won the Pac-12. They won every game they were supposed to win during the nonconference, and they had some very respectable losses – on neutral courts to Minnesota (by two) and Virginia Tech (seven) and a near-upset at Gonzaga before losing at the buzzer, 81-79. Mike Hopkins has a scoring dynamo in 6-4 sophomore guard Jaylen Nowell (16.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 40.5 percent from 3), and the Huskies are playing the Syracuse zone better than Syracuse right now. If they get into the NCAA Tournament, they will be a tough out.
West Virginia (8-4, No. 50 KenPom)
Rating: Sell
I realize it’s usually not a good idea to bet against Bob Huggins, but even the best coaches need good players, and the Mountaineers don’t have enough of those. The team does not have guards nearly as good as Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles were a year ago. They have a premier shot blocker and rebounder in 6-8 junior Sagaba Konate, but that is not enough to fuel the vaunted Press Virginia swarming defense. There are not a lot of great teams in the Big 12 this year (besides Kansas, of course), but there are plenty of good ones, and that will present West Virginia with a mountain that is just too high to climb.
Wisconsin (10-3, No. 15 AP, No. 14 KenPom)
Rating: Hold
Saturday’s loss at Western Kentucky doesn’t bother me. That was a classic trap game that the Badgers scheduled as part of a football contract. That aside, this is a good team that will more than hold its own in the Big Ten. Wins over Oklahoma (neutral) and North Carolina State (at home) look even better today, and the overtime loss at Marquette showed the Badgers have toughness. Much like Virginia, they have a style and roster makeup that is made for the long term. They play at a slow pace (346th nationally in tempo), take care of the ball (sixth in turnover percentage) and are dedicated to defense (11th in efficiency). You know how good Ethan Happ is, but sophomore guard D’Mitrik Trice has also established himself one of the nation’s more dangerous outside threats.
Under Capel, the Panthers have already surpassed their win total from last season. (Ben Queen/USA Today)
Ten sleeper stocks
Belmont (9-2, No. 74 KenPom). The seventh-fastest team in the country has beaten Lipscomb twice and knocked off UCLA in Pauley Pavilion. The Bruins are the team to beat – again – in the OVC.
Boston College (9-2, No. 95 KenPom). The Eagles have an All-ACC caliber guard in 6-1 junior Ky Bowman, who despite his size pulls down 7.6 rebounds per game to go along with 18.8 points. They beat Minnesota at home and took Providence to overtime before losing by five.
Davidson (9-4, No. 88 KenPom). No one is saying Kellan Grady is the next Stephen Curry, but the Wildcats’ 6-5 sophomore is the best pro prospect in the Atlantic 10.
Lipscomb (9-3, No. 56 KenPom). The Bisons won at SMU, handed TCU its only loss of the season and gave Louisville all it wanted in the KFC Yum! Center before losing by four.
Murray State (9-2, No. 62 KenPom). If you haven’t seen Ja Morant yet, do so immediately. The 6-3 sophomore point guard is Gumby with a basketball, and he leads the nation in assists (9.3) while scoring 23 points per game. No wonder he’s Kevin Durant’s favorite player
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Old Dominion (10-3, No. 71 KenPom). That win in the Carrier Dome was no fluke. The Monarchs have also used their Virginia-esque style to beat Northern Iowa and VCU at home. They are the favorite to win Conference USA.
Pittsburgh (10-3, No. 83 KenPom). Under first-year coach Jeff Capel, the Panthers have already surpassed last year’s win total (not hard to do), but even more impressive is that two of their losses came by a point.
San Francisco (12-2, No. 44 KenPom). Bill Russell is not coming through that door, but the Dons gave Buffalo a tough challenge in Ireland before losing by four, and they claimed Bay Area supremacy with wins over Cal and Stanford.
UCF (10-2, No. 38 KenPom). The race for first place in the American is widely thought to be between Cincinnati and Houston, but don’t count out Johnny Dawkins’ Knights, who are spearheaded by the veteran backcourt of BJ Taylor and Aubrey Dawkins, not to mention their vertically imposing center, 7-6 senior Tacko Fall.
Vanderbilt (8-3, No. 63 KenPom). I thought when freshman point guard Darius Garland was lost for the season with a meniscus injury, it would be curtains for the Commodores, but 6-2 sophomore Saben Lee has stepped in admirably and led the team to a win over Arizona State at home. There is still enough talent on this roster to make the NCAA Tournament.
Five to dump (if you haven’t already)
California (5-7, No. 209 KenPom). The Bears closed out the nonconference season with an 82-73 loss at home to Seattle on Saturday night. They have only one win over a team ranked above 200 on KenPom. Even in a bad year in the Pac-12, this team is really bad.
George Washington (4-9, No. 273 KenPom). The controversy around this program may be a thing of the past, but it appears winning is a thing of the distant future.
Illinois (4-9, No. 114 KenPom). I slated the Illini for this list even before their home loss on Saturday to Florida Atlantic. Illinois undoubtedly played an overambitious nonconference schedule, but losses to Xavier (by nine) and Missouri (16) don’t bode well for what awaits in the rugged Big Ten.
Monmouth (0-12, No. 300 KenPom). It’s amazing how far this program has fallen after going 55-15 from 2015-17.
Wake Forest (6-5, No. 158 KenPom). The Demon Deacons took a bad hit when two players who had no business entering the NBA Draft last spring did just that (and predictably went undrafted). They have lost at home to Houston Baptist and by 10 points on the road to a pretty bad Richmond team. Then on Saturday, they lost to Gardner Webb at home, 73-69. The ACC will be unforgiving, to say the least.