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Hoop Thoughts: The Jigsaw Man returns, the Pac-12 plummets, my weekly top 25 and lots more
Seth Davis Dec 17, 2018 The ATHLETIC
Ho! Ho! Ho? Try Hoops! Hoops! Hoops!
That’s the way folks like us think this time of year. Sure, the holidays are approaching, but we’ve been in a state of bliss since the season tipped off on Nov. 6. The holiday cheer is a nice ornament on top, if you will, but our mood is naturally bright.
Of course, when you’re a hard-core fan, things could always be a little cheerier. You root for your team real hard, but you watch it real close, so you can see the flaws all too clearly. You want to fix those problems, but you don’t know how. So what you wish for most this time of year is not a visit from Santa Claus. It’s for the Jigsaw Man to come down your chimney.
Longtime devoted Hoopheads know all about the Jigsaw Man. He’s the wise old soul who looks at your team as closely as you do, spies its biggest hole, and then scavenges the country to find the perfect piece to fill it. The Jigsaw Man does not traffic in obvious solutions. Any team would get better if Zion Williamson was added to it. Instead, he’d rather look for obscure players, pluck them out of the darkness and then plug them into a spot where they would have maximum benefit. He loves nothing more than to brighten up a team’s picture during the holiday season.
This year, the Jigsaw Man puzzled long and hard before plugging holes for 10 very lucky teams. Their pictures thus improved, he shall repair to his private workshop in Springfield, Mass., where he can behold the results of his labors. It ain’t the North Pole, but it feels like home.
Here are the 10 puzzles:
Arizona
Biggest hole: In the wake of back-to-back losses to Alabama and Baylor, this team has more than just one hole to fill. Yes, the Wildcats got beat up on the boards on Saturday night, but the Jigsaw Man believes the primary issue is at the point of attack. We’re used to thinking of Arizona as Point Guard U, so it’s a little odd to see the Wildcats producing such mediocrity from that position. This team is scoring just 75.5 points per game, and it ranks sixth in the Pac-12 in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.07) and ninth in assists per game (12.5). It is also 282nd in the country in assists to made field goals, according to KenPom.com. Sean Miller was prepared to turn over his offense to freshman Jahvon Quinerly, but he ended up at Villanova after Arizona got in hot water with the FBI. (Although given how Quinerly has been buried on the bench at Nova, that might not be a bad thing.) Miller scrambled last spring to land grad transfer Justin Coleman from Samford, but he is just an OK scorer (11.0 ppg) who has too many turnovers (21) compared to his assists (36). The Jigsaw Man believes this team needs a dynamo who can inject new life into its morbid offense.
Missing piece: Galen Robinson, 6-1 senior guard, Houston. This dude can really get out and go. He leads the American Athletic Conference in assists (6.2 per game), and his 3.73 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks third in the conference and 18th nationally. The Jigsaw Man also loves that Robinson has raised his 3-point percentage to 43.5 percent after making just four treys last season. Coleman, by the way, is also an excellent 3-point shooter (41.5 percent), so having Robinson on the floor will allow him to play him off the ball, where he is more comfortable.
Duke
Biggest hole: Obviously, this is not a team with a lot of deficiencies, particularly when it comes to scoring, but the Jigsaw Man spies a few. First, the Blue Devils are young – they’re 346th in the country in KenPom’s experience metric. They’re not a very good 3-point shooting team (65.0 percent, which ranks 204th nationally), and while this is one of Mike Krzyzewski’s better defensive teams, Duke could use a little more old-school grit at that end of the floor. Most of all, this team is just a little too likable. The Jigsaw Man is uncomfortable with that.
Missing piece: Brad Davison, 6-3 sophomore guard, Wisconsin. The Jigsaw Man is quite proud of himself for this one. Davison drew all kinds of Twitter derision after he drew five charges during the Badgers’ win over N.C. State on Nov. 27. Any flopping, guttural screaming, trash talking, feisty defensive specialist needs to be wearing a Duke jersey. Davison’s 36.4 percent clip from 3-point range and 80.8 percent foul shooting will make the Blue Devils more difficult to defend in the halfcourt, where they are vulnerable. He isn’t exactly old, but he does have an old soul, and he was tough enough to play through eight shoulder dislocations as a freshman. Davison will make Duke a little easier to hate and a little harder to beat. That’s a win-win if ever there was one.
Florida
Biggest hole: The Gators have a big hole in the middle. Their perimeter has been pretty good – the Jigsaw Man is a big fan of freshman point guard Andrew Nembhard – but it’s hard to make up for that gaping gap. The annual John Egbunu Injury Watch has long been a thing of the past, but this team still does not have a reliable post scorer. This season the Gators have gotten just 4 percent of their offense from post-ups, according to Synergy. Four! Pace and space is all well and good, but at some point, the Jigsaw Man would like to see Florida get some offense in the painted area, as Hubie Brown likes to say. (The Jigsaw Man is a big Hubie fan. He has exquisite taste.)
Missing piece: Jordan Murphy, 6-6 senior forward, Minnesota. He’s not the tallest cat in the gym, but this is one grown man. Murphy ranks third in the country in rebounding at 12.1 per game while averaging 14.9 points on 47.6 percent shooting. Nearly 20 percent of his possessions come on post-ups. He also averages nearly three assists per game, so if the defense tries to double him in the post, he will find the open man. The Jigsaw Man wonders if the addition of Murphy will allow Jalen Hudson to reappear from whatever mysterious universe he has been residing in. That would certainly brighten up Florida’s picture. Either way, Murphy plugs in that big hole down low.
Indiana
Biggest hole: The Jigsaw Man isn’t just a picture guy. He’s also good at math. So he sees that even though the Hoosiers have won four in a row, the total margin of victory in those games is eight points. He also sees that this team’s 64.3 percent clip from the free throw line ranks next to last in the Big Ten and 299th nationally. This team turns the ball over too much (271st in turnover percentage), and while Romeo Langford has every bit as good as advertised, he is shooting just 22 percent from 3-point range. That is going to make him increasingly easy to scout as we get deep into conference play. The Jigsaw Man is impressed with freshman point guard Rob Phinisee, the hero of Saturday’s dramatic win over Butler, but he would like to add one more efficient, versatile, scoring point guard to the perimeter. You might say he wants to jazz things up.
Missing piece: Jazz Johnson, 5-10 junior point guard, Nevada. The Jigsaw Man is impressed with what Eric Musselman is doing in Reno, and he suspects the coach would barely notice if he pilfers one of his complementary pieces. As a redshirt junior (he sat out last season after transferring from Portland), Johnson will bring a badly needed veteran presence to Indiana’s young backcourt. He is a deadeye catch-and-shoot guy, converting 54.3 percent of his 3-point opportunities. Best of all, he is a 93 percent foul shooter, which means Archie Miller can really use him at the end of games. If Indiana is going to have more close calls, it will need to convert better at the foul line. Johnson can help there.
Kentucky
Biggest hole: We’re used to seeing John Calipari’s teams at Memphis and Kentucky being spearheaded by dynamic lead guards who can score, set up their teammates and ignite the fast break. This season, Kentucky’s spear is lacking a head. The Wildcats are 85th in the country in 3-point percentage (36.9) and dead last in the SEC in 3-point defense (39.0). Kentucky has also been uncharacteristically careless with the ball, ranking ninth in the SEC in assist-to-turnover ratio (0.98) and 11th in turnovers (14.3). And because Kentucky is not turning opponents over (229th nationally in steal percentage), it is reduced to playing too much halfcourt offense, where its lack of 3-point prowess is most hurtful. It is a vicious cycle that is troubling the Jigsaw Man. This problem did not get any better last week when sophomore guard Quade Green announced he was transferring. Since Derrick Rose, John Wall and De’Aaron Fox are occupied elsewhere, the Jigsaw Man went in search to find the next best thing. Fortunately, he did not have to go far.
Missing piece: Ja Morant, 6-3 sophomore guard, Murray State. The Jigsaw Man appreciates the opportunity to plug UK’s biggest hole with another player from inside the Commonwealth. Morant did not give a whole lot of indication last season that he was bound for stardom, but that’s where he has landed. He is putting up All-America caliber numbers, averaging 22.3 points, 9.5 assists, 7.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals. He is shooting 55 percent from the floor, 34 percent from 3 and 81 percent from the line. And he is doing all of this while facing double- and triple-teams every game. When Morant makes the four-hour drive to Lexington, he will bring a lot of points and tough defense to a team that badly needs it, but most of all he will bring some of that old Kentucky swagger to his new Kentucky home.
North Carolina
Biggest hole: Sure, this team is riding high in the wake of its win over Gonzaga on Saturday night, but as usual, the Jigsaw Man sees the bigger picture. The Heels were jacked up at home and made a bunch of shots against a short-handed squad, but even in victory they still allowed Gonzaga to score 90 points on 50.8 percent shooting. That’s not going to cut it in March, where defense matters and nobody plays at home. The Jigsaw Man does not like front-running teams. He knows scoring is not a problem for North Carolina, but he believes the Heels need a defensive enforcer who can get on the glass and establish a tougher dadgum mindset.
Missing piece: Sagaba Konate, 6-8 junior forward, West Virginia. This already feels like something of a lost season for the 6-4 Mountaineers, so it’s only fair that Konate has a chance to play for a title in Chapel Hill. The Jigsaw Man, who fears no mortal, knows Konate will instantly change the personality of this team. Konate might be undersized for a center, but he is already West Virginia’s career leader in blocked shots. He ranks 16th in the country in block percentage, and he is grabbing 8.0 rebounds per game while converting 81.3 percent of his free throws. Konate isn’t the fastest of centers when it comes to changing ends, but he could be an effective trailer on the break now that he has added the 3-pointer to his repertoire. Konate did not attempt a 3 in his first two seasons in Morgantown, but he has made 9-of-23 from behind the arc this season. He has a way of erasing his teammates’ mistakes, and on defense, North Carolina makes a lot of those. It’s a perfect fit.
Purdue
Biggest hole: The Boilermakers have one really good piece in Carsen Edwards. The rest of the picture is not a pretty sight. That was evident during Saturday’s loss to Notre Dame, during which Purdue shot 9-of-29 from 3-point range while allowing the Irish to convert a season-best 52.4 percent from behind the arc. The Boilermakers also allowed ND to shoot 29 free throws. Unfortunately, the Jigsaw Man is only allowed to add one piece to this troubled puzzle. He knows he better make it a good one.
Missing piece: Tres Tinkle, 6-8 junior forward, Oregon State. The Jigsaw Man is not sentimental. Not only would he be robbing the Beavers of their best player, but he’s also taking this guy away from his father, coach Wayne Tinkle. But Tres will feel right at home in West Lafayette, as the Boilermakers are in dire need of every one of his many offensive skills. Tinkle is a master of the midrange and a terrific scorer in transition. He’s averaging 19.7 points per game on 47.9 percent shooting while also contributing 9.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game. The Jigsaw Man envisions Tinkle taking a lot of pressure off of Edwards while also opening up driving lanes for Nojel Eastern and drawing enough defensive attention to allow Matt Haarms to clean up the offensive glass. The result will be a much better picture than the one Purdue is projecting.
St. John’s
Biggest hole: The Jigsaw Man is a fan of Smallball, but he recognizes that size matters in this sport. Chris Mullin does not have a player in his rotation taller than 6-7 senior forward Marvin Clark, who’s more of a face-up three than a traditional power forward. The Red Storm’s guards are pretty good at posting up, but this team is ranked 320th in the country in offensive rebound percentage. That is not sustainable in the long term. The offense should still run through Shamorie Ponds and Mustapha Heron, but the Jigsaw Man believes if this team had a legitimate post option, it would open up shot opportunities and driving lanes for those talented guards. And this being New York, the addition will have to be someone who is selfless, smart and hard-nosed.
Missing piece: Dererk Pardon, 6-8 senior forward, Northwestern. This guy is a hard-hat, lunch-pail throwback of a power forward. He’s not trying to be a stretch anything. During his three-plus years at Northwestern, Pardon has attempted a total of six 3-pointers, five this season. (He has made two.) He just wants to get to the bucket and do his work. The Jigsaw Man likes that Pardon’s numbers have improved each season. At the moment he is averaging a career-best 14.0 points on 65 percent shooting to go along with 9.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists (up from 1.2 assists per game a year ago). Pardon is also at his best in the biggest games, going for 24 and 10 at Indiana and 20 and five against Michigan (alas, both losses). The Jigsaw Man has no doubt he will perform well under the bright lights of New York City and provide St. John’s with the inside muscle it needs to play deep into March.
Syracuse
Biggest hole: Oy vey. The Jigsaw Man is ready to plotz over this team’s horrendous offense. The Orange might be ranked 48th in the country in offensive efficiency on KenPom, but it is 272nd in effective field goal percentage and 297th in 3-point percentage. It’s also odd the team that KenPom ranks as the tallest in the country is so mediocre at rebounding. Syracuse ranks 12th in the ACC in rebound margin, and it is 106th nationally in offensive rebound percentage. Whoever comes in will have to be helpful in the zone defense as well. Because this team seriously needs help.
Missing piece: Ty Outlaw, 6-6 senior guard, Virginia Tech. Syracuse has an alpha male scorer in Tyus Battle. Outlaw has shown he is comfortable playing a complementary role by making the most of his minutes and his shots. He ranks second in the ACC in 3-point percentage (53.3), and he grabs 5.7 rebounds despite playing 25.2 minutes as a starter. Outlaw has the size that Jim Boeheim looks for to close out on 3-point shooters in that 2-3 zone. The Orange has a decent amount of talent, but the Jigsaw Man believes that a few more timely 3-pointers and offensive put-backs from Outlaw would make a real difference. At the very least, Outlaw can help Syracuse beat the likes of Old Dominion at home.
Texas Tech
Biggest hole: The best evidence that a team is well-coached is that it plays to its strengths and minimizes its weaknesses. The Jigsaw Man recognizes that Chris Beard does that as well as anyone, but he wonders if basketball always has to be so hard. The Red Raiders lock people down (they lead the nation in defensive efficiency), protect the rim (seventh in block percentage) and manage the pace (264th in tempo). The Jigsaw Man is a big fan of point guard Jarrett Culver (19.1 ppg, 4.5 apg), but he would like to find him a running mate – someone who can convert his dimes and run the point and allow Culver to take advantage of his 45.2 percent 3-point shooting.
Missing piece: McKinley Wright IV, 6-foot sophomore guard, Colorado. The Jigsaw Man is tired of seeing Wright toil in obscurity. He has been one of the best guards in the Pac-12 the last two seasons, and he is just the type of player who can give Texas Tech’s offense a badly needed sugar rush. He does it all too, averaging 14.8 points, 6.0 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals. He’s not a good 3-point shooter, but Beard will turn him into a determined ball hawk. With two scoring point guards playing side by side, Texas Tech’s picture would get a lot more picturesque.
Other Hoop Thoughts
• It has been a rough stretch for the Pac-12, to say the least, but even by this league’s low standards, Saturday was quite the disaster. After Utah lost at Kentucky (expected) and Washington fell to Virginia Tech in New Jersey (respectable), the league’s marquee programs sustained a major pratfall. UCLA lost at home to Belmont, USC lost by 11 at Oklahoma, Oregon State lost at home to a Texas A&M team that had a sub-.500 record, and Arizona’s 52-game nonconference home win streak was snapped by a Baylor squad that has lost to Texas Southern, Ole Miss and Wichita State. Even the wins were a little tainted. Arizona State needed to come back from 18 down in the second half to win at unranked Georgia, and Oregon beat Boise State without freshman sensation Bol Bol, who is out indefinitely with the dreaded “lower leg injury.” The league is ranked sixth among conferences on KenPom and has no teams in KenPom’s top 30. It has been a long, tough slog for this league. Last March, the Pac-12 only put three teams in the NCAA tournament: Arizona State and UCLA lost in the First Four, and Arizona got blitzed by Buffalo in the first round. And let’s not even talk about how football season went.
• Speaking of Belmont, Rick Byrd has the Bruins balling again. They love to play at a fast pace and have two wins over Lipscomb, a team that won at TCU and gave Louisville all it wanted last Wednesday before losing by four. Keep your eye on them.
• Fascinating piece from fivethirtyeight.com making the case that Zion Williamson is the best college basketball player in “at least a decade.” Frankly, I only understood about a third of it, but while the numbers were compelling, I have to say that this is Exhibit A to illustrate the limits of analytics. I doubt anyone who pays close attention to the game really believes Zion is the best player the sport has seen in at least a decade. He’s not even the best player in the game right now, and you could make a case that he’s only the second-best player on his own team.
• Tennessee dominated Memphis on Saturday, but to me the big thing is how happy I am that these teams played each other after a four-year hiatus. Right now they are contracted to play the next two seasons (next year in Knoxville, the year after in Nashville), but this needs to be an annual meeting, period. It’s great for the schools and great for college basketball, a sport that needs every bit of help it can get to draw eyeballs during football season.
• Tell you what, if Mississippi State is going to keep making 3s like this, the Bulldogs are about to explode. They shot 12-of-23 in their win over Cincinnati after going 19-of-30 in a win over Clemson. Junior guard Lamar Peters, who shot 27.7 percent from 3 last year, is making 42.9 percent this season and is 19-of-32 over his last three games. I thought only Lagerald Vick could do that.
• Every player who gets asked about a good scoring game answers by saying, “I have to give credit to my teammates.” Do they all meet with the same media trainer?
• Also, I always chuckle when I hear that a player underwent “successful” surgery. Does any doctor ever describe a surgery as unsuccessful?
• What Nevada did to Mike Daum on Saturday night should be illegal in 48 states. The Dauminator, who came in ranked sixth in the country in scoring at 25.2 points per game, was held to five points on 1-of-10 shooting in the Wolf Pack’s 72-68 win. Incidentally, Nevada, which was playing its first home games in 25 days, trailed by seven at half. This has been a second-half team all season. Comebacks are nice, the Pack is playing with fire. Sooner or later they’re gonna get burned.
• Furman has been America’s Darling for a while, but we’re about to find out just how good the Paladins really are. They play at LSU on Friday and at East Tennessee State on Saturday.
• Clearly, John Beilein is a devoted Hoop Thoughts reader. After I pointed out last week that Zavier Simpson’s absent jump-shooting was making it too easy to scout the Wolverines, Beilein force-fed Simpson some jump shots on Saturday, and he responded by making 3 of 4 attempts from behind the arc in a 70-62 win over Western Michigan. Simpson had missed 10 in a row before that, but Beilein said afterward that he told Simpson to keep firing because if he doesn’t “we’re playing four on five.” Need any other helpful suggestions, Coach?
• Auburn had to scrap and claw to beat UAB in overtime (don’t you love these in-state rivalry games?), but buried in the box score was the two-point, seven-minute output from Danjel Purifoy, who hadn’t played since March 8, 2017, due to eligibility issues. Jared Harper had to rescue the Tigers by scoring a season-high 31 points, but as Purifoy gets deeper into the rotation, this team will be operating on that much more margin for error. Which is a scary thought.
• I cannot get over that Villanova is 345th in the country in tempo. That’s not the Nova we’ve come to know and love. And yet Jahvon Quinerly still cannot get on the floor! Another DNP against Kansas. Pretty amazing.
• Duquesne has a freshman guard named Sincere Carry. Just making sure you knew.
• Purdue guard Ryan Cline looks like those NBA guys in Space Jam who lost all their powers. He is 1-of-24 from 3 over his last three games, which is a problem since making 3s is pretty much the only thing he does well.
• This is why I say it is unfair to blame Purdue’s problems on Carsen Edwards. As I said on CBS during halftime of the Notre Dame game, a bad shot by Edwards is better than a good shot from anyone else on this team. I say he should keep firing until his hand falls off.
• I watch a lot of games as you might guess, and most every time there is a sequence where a guy makes a shot, the director cuts away to the bench or the crowd, and the other team races down the court and does something the viewer misses. I will keep complaining about this until they stop. So please stop.
This week’s AP ballot
(Last week’s rank on my ballot in parentheses)
Kansas (1)
Tennessee (2)
Duke (4)
Michigan (5)
Auburn (6)
Nevada (7)
Virginia (8)
North Carolina (10)
Gonzaga (3)
Michigan State (9)
Virginia Tech (11)
Florida State (12)
Texas Tech (13)
Ohio State (16)
Nebraska (17)
Indiana (18)
Marquette (19)
Wisconsin (20)
Maryland (22)
Arizona State (23)
Buffalo (21)
Mississippi State (NR)
Louisville (NR)
Oklahoma (NR)
Furman (25)
Dropped out: Villanova (14), Syracuse (15), Cincinnati (24)
How do you solve a problem like Villanova? On the one hand, the Wildcats took the nation’s No. 1 team down to the wire on its home floor. On the other hand, they also lost last week to an Ivy League team – a good Ivy League team, for sure, but still. Villanova is a good team that is capable of playing very well or very poorly, but the bottom line is it has now lost three games at home. That Nov. 25 win over Florida State on a neutral court is drifting ever farther into the rearview mirror. Out they go.
The other big decision was how far to drop Gonzaga. It’s always hard to account for injuries, but in this case, the fact that the Zags are close to getting Killian Tillie back – and clearly miss him badly – has to be relevant. They are also missing Geno Crandall, the grad transfer from North Dakota who was supposed to give some depth to the backcourt. At full strength, I still think this is the best team in the country, but the Bulldogs are not there yet, and they clearly have some defensive issues in the meantime.
I said last week that I didn’t think it was fair to move Buffalo up as a reward for beating teams that are not as good as other ranked teams are playing. However, the Bulls have two huge road games coming up this week at Syracuse (on Tuesday) and Marquette (on Friday). I don’t care that Syracuse just lost at home to Old Dominion – if anything, that should make the Orange tougher to beat. And Buffalo certainly won’t have the luxury of sneaking up on anyone. If the Bulls can at least gain a split and play respectably in the loss, they will be attracting a lot more believers. If they go 0-2, they could very well lose their ranking next week. Remember, their best win (at West Virginia in OT) doesn’t look quite as good now as it did on Nov. 9.
I’ve been late coming around on Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs sure proved their worth by beating Clemson and Cincinnati over the last two weeks. This team also has a win at Dayton, and its only loss was to Arizona State on a neutral court.
I didn’t rank Louisville last week because it’s hard to enter a team into the rankings following a loss (even if it was by one point to Indiana). But Louisville’s résumé is far stronger than many other teams I considered. All three of the Cardinals’ losses have been to teams that are ranked above them, and their wins over Michigan State (home) and Seton Hall (road) are much better than anything that can be claimed by a lot of these pretenders.
Speaking of which, I looked at a couple of undefeated teams for the bottom of my ballot, but neither quite passed muster. St. John’s is 10-0, but the Red Storm have played just two teams ranked in KenPom’s top 100. We won’t know how good this team is until conference play begins. Houston’s road has been better, including Sunday’s home win over Saint Louis, which is the favorite to win the Atlantic 10. The Cougars also staged an impressive comeback win at home over LSU last Wednesday. They haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row, but there’s something to be said for playing a decent schedule and winning every game.
On the other hand, Oklahoma’s win over Notre Dame in Madison Square Garden looks a little better in the wake of the Irish’s victory over Purdue on Saturday. The Sooners also beat Florida and Dayton in the Bahamas, and they handled USC the way a top-25 team should on Saturday night. Plus, they just got their best interior defender, Jamuni McNeace, back in the lineup. Oklahoma is trending up, and as usual I am ahead of the curve.
N.C. State is 9-1, but five of those wins were over teams ranked below No. 300 on KenPom. If the Wolfpack want to prove their mettle, they have a great chance on Wednesday night at home against Auburn. If UAB can take the Tigers to overtime on a neutral court, the Wolfpack should be able to acquit themselves well at home – if they have visions of being a ranked team.
If you watched that fantastic Butler-Indiana game, then you saw two teams that were very evenly matched. If anything, Butler was in command for most of the game. You can make a case for ranking the Bulldogs, but I couldn’t get past those losses to Dayton and Saint Louis. Butler plays at Florida on Dec. 29. A win there would strengthen the Bulldogs’ case considerably. Until then, they’re stuck in Almost Famous.
Seth Davis Dec 17, 2018 The ATHLETIC
Ho! Ho! Ho? Try Hoops! Hoops! Hoops!
That’s the way folks like us think this time of year. Sure, the holidays are approaching, but we’ve been in a state of bliss since the season tipped off on Nov. 6. The holiday cheer is a nice ornament on top, if you will, but our mood is naturally bright.
Of course, when you’re a hard-core fan, things could always be a little cheerier. You root for your team real hard, but you watch it real close, so you can see the flaws all too clearly. You want to fix those problems, but you don’t know how. So what you wish for most this time of year is not a visit from Santa Claus. It’s for the Jigsaw Man to come down your chimney.
Longtime devoted Hoopheads know all about the Jigsaw Man. He’s the wise old soul who looks at your team as closely as you do, spies its biggest hole, and then scavenges the country to find the perfect piece to fill it. The Jigsaw Man does not traffic in obvious solutions. Any team would get better if Zion Williamson was added to it. Instead, he’d rather look for obscure players, pluck them out of the darkness and then plug them into a spot where they would have maximum benefit. He loves nothing more than to brighten up a team’s picture during the holiday season.
This year, the Jigsaw Man puzzled long and hard before plugging holes for 10 very lucky teams. Their pictures thus improved, he shall repair to his private workshop in Springfield, Mass., where he can behold the results of his labors. It ain’t the North Pole, but it feels like home.
Here are the 10 puzzles:
Arizona
Biggest hole: In the wake of back-to-back losses to Alabama and Baylor, this team has more than just one hole to fill. Yes, the Wildcats got beat up on the boards on Saturday night, but the Jigsaw Man believes the primary issue is at the point of attack. We’re used to thinking of Arizona as Point Guard U, so it’s a little odd to see the Wildcats producing such mediocrity from that position. This team is scoring just 75.5 points per game, and it ranks sixth in the Pac-12 in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.07) and ninth in assists per game (12.5). It is also 282nd in the country in assists to made field goals, according to KenPom.com. Sean Miller was prepared to turn over his offense to freshman Jahvon Quinerly, but he ended up at Villanova after Arizona got in hot water with the FBI. (Although given how Quinerly has been buried on the bench at Nova, that might not be a bad thing.) Miller scrambled last spring to land grad transfer Justin Coleman from Samford, but he is just an OK scorer (11.0 ppg) who has too many turnovers (21) compared to his assists (36). The Jigsaw Man believes this team needs a dynamo who can inject new life into its morbid offense.
Missing piece: Galen Robinson, 6-1 senior guard, Houston. This dude can really get out and go. He leads the American Athletic Conference in assists (6.2 per game), and his 3.73 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks third in the conference and 18th nationally. The Jigsaw Man also loves that Robinson has raised his 3-point percentage to 43.5 percent after making just four treys last season. Coleman, by the way, is also an excellent 3-point shooter (41.5 percent), so having Robinson on the floor will allow him to play him off the ball, where he is more comfortable.
Duke
Biggest hole: Obviously, this is not a team with a lot of deficiencies, particularly when it comes to scoring, but the Jigsaw Man spies a few. First, the Blue Devils are young – they’re 346th in the country in KenPom’s experience metric. They’re not a very good 3-point shooting team (65.0 percent, which ranks 204th nationally), and while this is one of Mike Krzyzewski’s better defensive teams, Duke could use a little more old-school grit at that end of the floor. Most of all, this team is just a little too likable. The Jigsaw Man is uncomfortable with that.
Missing piece: Brad Davison, 6-3 sophomore guard, Wisconsin. The Jigsaw Man is quite proud of himself for this one. Davison drew all kinds of Twitter derision after he drew five charges during the Badgers’ win over N.C. State on Nov. 27. Any flopping, guttural screaming, trash talking, feisty defensive specialist needs to be wearing a Duke jersey. Davison’s 36.4 percent clip from 3-point range and 80.8 percent foul shooting will make the Blue Devils more difficult to defend in the halfcourt, where they are vulnerable. He isn’t exactly old, but he does have an old soul, and he was tough enough to play through eight shoulder dislocations as a freshman. Davison will make Duke a little easier to hate and a little harder to beat. That’s a win-win if ever there was one.
Florida
Biggest hole: The Gators have a big hole in the middle. Their perimeter has been pretty good – the Jigsaw Man is a big fan of freshman point guard Andrew Nembhard – but it’s hard to make up for that gaping gap. The annual John Egbunu Injury Watch has long been a thing of the past, but this team still does not have a reliable post scorer. This season the Gators have gotten just 4 percent of their offense from post-ups, according to Synergy. Four! Pace and space is all well and good, but at some point, the Jigsaw Man would like to see Florida get some offense in the painted area, as Hubie Brown likes to say. (The Jigsaw Man is a big Hubie fan. He has exquisite taste.)
Missing piece: Jordan Murphy, 6-6 senior forward, Minnesota. He’s not the tallest cat in the gym, but this is one grown man. Murphy ranks third in the country in rebounding at 12.1 per game while averaging 14.9 points on 47.6 percent shooting. Nearly 20 percent of his possessions come on post-ups. He also averages nearly three assists per game, so if the defense tries to double him in the post, he will find the open man. The Jigsaw Man wonders if the addition of Murphy will allow Jalen Hudson to reappear from whatever mysterious universe he has been residing in. That would certainly brighten up Florida’s picture. Either way, Murphy plugs in that big hole down low.
Indiana
Biggest hole: The Jigsaw Man isn’t just a picture guy. He’s also good at math. So he sees that even though the Hoosiers have won four in a row, the total margin of victory in those games is eight points. He also sees that this team’s 64.3 percent clip from the free throw line ranks next to last in the Big Ten and 299th nationally. This team turns the ball over too much (271st in turnover percentage), and while Romeo Langford has every bit as good as advertised, he is shooting just 22 percent from 3-point range. That is going to make him increasingly easy to scout as we get deep into conference play. The Jigsaw Man is impressed with freshman point guard Rob Phinisee, the hero of Saturday’s dramatic win over Butler, but he would like to add one more efficient, versatile, scoring point guard to the perimeter. You might say he wants to jazz things up.
Missing piece: Jazz Johnson, 5-10 junior point guard, Nevada. The Jigsaw Man is impressed with what Eric Musselman is doing in Reno, and he suspects the coach would barely notice if he pilfers one of his complementary pieces. As a redshirt junior (he sat out last season after transferring from Portland), Johnson will bring a badly needed veteran presence to Indiana’s young backcourt. He is a deadeye catch-and-shoot guy, converting 54.3 percent of his 3-point opportunities. Best of all, he is a 93 percent foul shooter, which means Archie Miller can really use him at the end of games. If Indiana is going to have more close calls, it will need to convert better at the foul line. Johnson can help there.
Kentucky
Biggest hole: We’re used to seeing John Calipari’s teams at Memphis and Kentucky being spearheaded by dynamic lead guards who can score, set up their teammates and ignite the fast break. This season, Kentucky’s spear is lacking a head. The Wildcats are 85th in the country in 3-point percentage (36.9) and dead last in the SEC in 3-point defense (39.0). Kentucky has also been uncharacteristically careless with the ball, ranking ninth in the SEC in assist-to-turnover ratio (0.98) and 11th in turnovers (14.3). And because Kentucky is not turning opponents over (229th nationally in steal percentage), it is reduced to playing too much halfcourt offense, where its lack of 3-point prowess is most hurtful. It is a vicious cycle that is troubling the Jigsaw Man. This problem did not get any better last week when sophomore guard Quade Green announced he was transferring. Since Derrick Rose, John Wall and De’Aaron Fox are occupied elsewhere, the Jigsaw Man went in search to find the next best thing. Fortunately, he did not have to go far.
Missing piece: Ja Morant, 6-3 sophomore guard, Murray State. The Jigsaw Man appreciates the opportunity to plug UK’s biggest hole with another player from inside the Commonwealth. Morant did not give a whole lot of indication last season that he was bound for stardom, but that’s where he has landed. He is putting up All-America caliber numbers, averaging 22.3 points, 9.5 assists, 7.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals. He is shooting 55 percent from the floor, 34 percent from 3 and 81 percent from the line. And he is doing all of this while facing double- and triple-teams every game. When Morant makes the four-hour drive to Lexington, he will bring a lot of points and tough defense to a team that badly needs it, but most of all he will bring some of that old Kentucky swagger to his new Kentucky home.
North Carolina
Biggest hole: Sure, this team is riding high in the wake of its win over Gonzaga on Saturday night, but as usual, the Jigsaw Man sees the bigger picture. The Heels were jacked up at home and made a bunch of shots against a short-handed squad, but even in victory they still allowed Gonzaga to score 90 points on 50.8 percent shooting. That’s not going to cut it in March, where defense matters and nobody plays at home. The Jigsaw Man does not like front-running teams. He knows scoring is not a problem for North Carolina, but he believes the Heels need a defensive enforcer who can get on the glass and establish a tougher dadgum mindset.
Missing piece: Sagaba Konate, 6-8 junior forward, West Virginia. This already feels like something of a lost season for the 6-4 Mountaineers, so it’s only fair that Konate has a chance to play for a title in Chapel Hill. The Jigsaw Man, who fears no mortal, knows Konate will instantly change the personality of this team. Konate might be undersized for a center, but he is already West Virginia’s career leader in blocked shots. He ranks 16th in the country in block percentage, and he is grabbing 8.0 rebounds per game while converting 81.3 percent of his free throws. Konate isn’t the fastest of centers when it comes to changing ends, but he could be an effective trailer on the break now that he has added the 3-pointer to his repertoire. Konate did not attempt a 3 in his first two seasons in Morgantown, but he has made 9-of-23 from behind the arc this season. He has a way of erasing his teammates’ mistakes, and on defense, North Carolina makes a lot of those. It’s a perfect fit.
Purdue
Biggest hole: The Boilermakers have one really good piece in Carsen Edwards. The rest of the picture is not a pretty sight. That was evident during Saturday’s loss to Notre Dame, during which Purdue shot 9-of-29 from 3-point range while allowing the Irish to convert a season-best 52.4 percent from behind the arc. The Boilermakers also allowed ND to shoot 29 free throws. Unfortunately, the Jigsaw Man is only allowed to add one piece to this troubled puzzle. He knows he better make it a good one.
Missing piece: Tres Tinkle, 6-8 junior forward, Oregon State. The Jigsaw Man is not sentimental. Not only would he be robbing the Beavers of their best player, but he’s also taking this guy away from his father, coach Wayne Tinkle. But Tres will feel right at home in West Lafayette, as the Boilermakers are in dire need of every one of his many offensive skills. Tinkle is a master of the midrange and a terrific scorer in transition. He’s averaging 19.7 points per game on 47.9 percent shooting while also contributing 9.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game. The Jigsaw Man envisions Tinkle taking a lot of pressure off of Edwards while also opening up driving lanes for Nojel Eastern and drawing enough defensive attention to allow Matt Haarms to clean up the offensive glass. The result will be a much better picture than the one Purdue is projecting.
St. John’s
Biggest hole: The Jigsaw Man is a fan of Smallball, but he recognizes that size matters in this sport. Chris Mullin does not have a player in his rotation taller than 6-7 senior forward Marvin Clark, who’s more of a face-up three than a traditional power forward. The Red Storm’s guards are pretty good at posting up, but this team is ranked 320th in the country in offensive rebound percentage. That is not sustainable in the long term. The offense should still run through Shamorie Ponds and Mustapha Heron, but the Jigsaw Man believes if this team had a legitimate post option, it would open up shot opportunities and driving lanes for those talented guards. And this being New York, the addition will have to be someone who is selfless, smart and hard-nosed.
Missing piece: Dererk Pardon, 6-8 senior forward, Northwestern. This guy is a hard-hat, lunch-pail throwback of a power forward. He’s not trying to be a stretch anything. During his three-plus years at Northwestern, Pardon has attempted a total of six 3-pointers, five this season. (He has made two.) He just wants to get to the bucket and do his work. The Jigsaw Man likes that Pardon’s numbers have improved each season. At the moment he is averaging a career-best 14.0 points on 65 percent shooting to go along with 9.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists (up from 1.2 assists per game a year ago). Pardon is also at his best in the biggest games, going for 24 and 10 at Indiana and 20 and five against Michigan (alas, both losses). The Jigsaw Man has no doubt he will perform well under the bright lights of New York City and provide St. John’s with the inside muscle it needs to play deep into March.
Syracuse
Biggest hole: Oy vey. The Jigsaw Man is ready to plotz over this team’s horrendous offense. The Orange might be ranked 48th in the country in offensive efficiency on KenPom, but it is 272nd in effective field goal percentage and 297th in 3-point percentage. It’s also odd the team that KenPom ranks as the tallest in the country is so mediocre at rebounding. Syracuse ranks 12th in the ACC in rebound margin, and it is 106th nationally in offensive rebound percentage. Whoever comes in will have to be helpful in the zone defense as well. Because this team seriously needs help.
Missing piece: Ty Outlaw, 6-6 senior guard, Virginia Tech. Syracuse has an alpha male scorer in Tyus Battle. Outlaw has shown he is comfortable playing a complementary role by making the most of his minutes and his shots. He ranks second in the ACC in 3-point percentage (53.3), and he grabs 5.7 rebounds despite playing 25.2 minutes as a starter. Outlaw has the size that Jim Boeheim looks for to close out on 3-point shooters in that 2-3 zone. The Orange has a decent amount of talent, but the Jigsaw Man believes that a few more timely 3-pointers and offensive put-backs from Outlaw would make a real difference. At the very least, Outlaw can help Syracuse beat the likes of Old Dominion at home.
Texas Tech
Biggest hole: The best evidence that a team is well-coached is that it plays to its strengths and minimizes its weaknesses. The Jigsaw Man recognizes that Chris Beard does that as well as anyone, but he wonders if basketball always has to be so hard. The Red Raiders lock people down (they lead the nation in defensive efficiency), protect the rim (seventh in block percentage) and manage the pace (264th in tempo). The Jigsaw Man is a big fan of point guard Jarrett Culver (19.1 ppg, 4.5 apg), but he would like to find him a running mate – someone who can convert his dimes and run the point and allow Culver to take advantage of his 45.2 percent 3-point shooting.
Missing piece: McKinley Wright IV, 6-foot sophomore guard, Colorado. The Jigsaw Man is tired of seeing Wright toil in obscurity. He has been one of the best guards in the Pac-12 the last two seasons, and he is just the type of player who can give Texas Tech’s offense a badly needed sugar rush. He does it all too, averaging 14.8 points, 6.0 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals. He’s not a good 3-point shooter, but Beard will turn him into a determined ball hawk. With two scoring point guards playing side by side, Texas Tech’s picture would get a lot more picturesque.
Other Hoop Thoughts
• It has been a rough stretch for the Pac-12, to say the least, but even by this league’s low standards, Saturday was quite the disaster. After Utah lost at Kentucky (expected) and Washington fell to Virginia Tech in New Jersey (respectable), the league’s marquee programs sustained a major pratfall. UCLA lost at home to Belmont, USC lost by 11 at Oklahoma, Oregon State lost at home to a Texas A&M team that had a sub-.500 record, and Arizona’s 52-game nonconference home win streak was snapped by a Baylor squad that has lost to Texas Southern, Ole Miss and Wichita State. Even the wins were a little tainted. Arizona State needed to come back from 18 down in the second half to win at unranked Georgia, and Oregon beat Boise State without freshman sensation Bol Bol, who is out indefinitely with the dreaded “lower leg injury.” The league is ranked sixth among conferences on KenPom and has no teams in KenPom’s top 30. It has been a long, tough slog for this league. Last March, the Pac-12 only put three teams in the NCAA tournament: Arizona State and UCLA lost in the First Four, and Arizona got blitzed by Buffalo in the first round. And let’s not even talk about how football season went.
• Speaking of Belmont, Rick Byrd has the Bruins balling again. They love to play at a fast pace and have two wins over Lipscomb, a team that won at TCU and gave Louisville all it wanted last Wednesday before losing by four. Keep your eye on them.
• Fascinating piece from fivethirtyeight.com making the case that Zion Williamson is the best college basketball player in “at least a decade.” Frankly, I only understood about a third of it, but while the numbers were compelling, I have to say that this is Exhibit A to illustrate the limits of analytics. I doubt anyone who pays close attention to the game really believes Zion is the best player the sport has seen in at least a decade. He’s not even the best player in the game right now, and you could make a case that he’s only the second-best player on his own team.
• Tennessee dominated Memphis on Saturday, but to me the big thing is how happy I am that these teams played each other after a four-year hiatus. Right now they are contracted to play the next two seasons (next year in Knoxville, the year after in Nashville), but this needs to be an annual meeting, period. It’s great for the schools and great for college basketball, a sport that needs every bit of help it can get to draw eyeballs during football season.
• Tell you what, if Mississippi State is going to keep making 3s like this, the Bulldogs are about to explode. They shot 12-of-23 in their win over Cincinnati after going 19-of-30 in a win over Clemson. Junior guard Lamar Peters, who shot 27.7 percent from 3 last year, is making 42.9 percent this season and is 19-of-32 over his last three games. I thought only Lagerald Vick could do that.
• Every player who gets asked about a good scoring game answers by saying, “I have to give credit to my teammates.” Do they all meet with the same media trainer?
• Also, I always chuckle when I hear that a player underwent “successful” surgery. Does any doctor ever describe a surgery as unsuccessful?
• What Nevada did to Mike Daum on Saturday night should be illegal in 48 states. The Dauminator, who came in ranked sixth in the country in scoring at 25.2 points per game, was held to five points on 1-of-10 shooting in the Wolf Pack’s 72-68 win. Incidentally, Nevada, which was playing its first home games in 25 days, trailed by seven at half. This has been a second-half team all season. Comebacks are nice, the Pack is playing with fire. Sooner or later they’re gonna get burned.
• Furman has been America’s Darling for a while, but we’re about to find out just how good the Paladins really are. They play at LSU on Friday and at East Tennessee State on Saturday.
• Clearly, John Beilein is a devoted Hoop Thoughts reader. After I pointed out last week that Zavier Simpson’s absent jump-shooting was making it too easy to scout the Wolverines, Beilein force-fed Simpson some jump shots on Saturday, and he responded by making 3 of 4 attempts from behind the arc in a 70-62 win over Western Michigan. Simpson had missed 10 in a row before that, but Beilein said afterward that he told Simpson to keep firing because if he doesn’t “we’re playing four on five.” Need any other helpful suggestions, Coach?
• Auburn had to scrap and claw to beat UAB in overtime (don’t you love these in-state rivalry games?), but buried in the box score was the two-point, seven-minute output from Danjel Purifoy, who hadn’t played since March 8, 2017, due to eligibility issues. Jared Harper had to rescue the Tigers by scoring a season-high 31 points, but as Purifoy gets deeper into the rotation, this team will be operating on that much more margin for error. Which is a scary thought.
• I cannot get over that Villanova is 345th in the country in tempo. That’s not the Nova we’ve come to know and love. And yet Jahvon Quinerly still cannot get on the floor! Another DNP against Kansas. Pretty amazing.
• Duquesne has a freshman guard named Sincere Carry. Just making sure you knew.
• Purdue guard Ryan Cline looks like those NBA guys in Space Jam who lost all their powers. He is 1-of-24 from 3 over his last three games, which is a problem since making 3s is pretty much the only thing he does well.
• This is why I say it is unfair to blame Purdue’s problems on Carsen Edwards. As I said on CBS during halftime of the Notre Dame game, a bad shot by Edwards is better than a good shot from anyone else on this team. I say he should keep firing until his hand falls off.
• I watch a lot of games as you might guess, and most every time there is a sequence where a guy makes a shot, the director cuts away to the bench or the crowd, and the other team races down the court and does something the viewer misses. I will keep complaining about this until they stop. So please stop.
This week’s AP ballot
(Last week’s rank on my ballot in parentheses)
Kansas (1)
Tennessee (2)
Duke (4)
Michigan (5)
Auburn (6)
Nevada (7)
Virginia (8)
North Carolina (10)
Gonzaga (3)
Michigan State (9)
Virginia Tech (11)
Florida State (12)
Texas Tech (13)
Ohio State (16)
Nebraska (17)
Indiana (18)
Marquette (19)
Wisconsin (20)
Maryland (22)
Arizona State (23)
Buffalo (21)
Mississippi State (NR)
Louisville (NR)
Oklahoma (NR)
Furman (25)
Dropped out: Villanova (14), Syracuse (15), Cincinnati (24)
How do you solve a problem like Villanova? On the one hand, the Wildcats took the nation’s No. 1 team down to the wire on its home floor. On the other hand, they also lost last week to an Ivy League team – a good Ivy League team, for sure, but still. Villanova is a good team that is capable of playing very well or very poorly, but the bottom line is it has now lost three games at home. That Nov. 25 win over Florida State on a neutral court is drifting ever farther into the rearview mirror. Out they go.
The other big decision was how far to drop Gonzaga. It’s always hard to account for injuries, but in this case, the fact that the Zags are close to getting Killian Tillie back – and clearly miss him badly – has to be relevant. They are also missing Geno Crandall, the grad transfer from North Dakota who was supposed to give some depth to the backcourt. At full strength, I still think this is the best team in the country, but the Bulldogs are not there yet, and they clearly have some defensive issues in the meantime.
I said last week that I didn’t think it was fair to move Buffalo up as a reward for beating teams that are not as good as other ranked teams are playing. However, the Bulls have two huge road games coming up this week at Syracuse (on Tuesday) and Marquette (on Friday). I don’t care that Syracuse just lost at home to Old Dominion – if anything, that should make the Orange tougher to beat. And Buffalo certainly won’t have the luxury of sneaking up on anyone. If the Bulls can at least gain a split and play respectably in the loss, they will be attracting a lot more believers. If they go 0-2, they could very well lose their ranking next week. Remember, their best win (at West Virginia in OT) doesn’t look quite as good now as it did on Nov. 9.
I’ve been late coming around on Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs sure proved their worth by beating Clemson and Cincinnati over the last two weeks. This team also has a win at Dayton, and its only loss was to Arizona State on a neutral court.
I didn’t rank Louisville last week because it’s hard to enter a team into the rankings following a loss (even if it was by one point to Indiana). But Louisville’s résumé is far stronger than many other teams I considered. All three of the Cardinals’ losses have been to teams that are ranked above them, and their wins over Michigan State (home) and Seton Hall (road) are much better than anything that can be claimed by a lot of these pretenders.
Speaking of which, I looked at a couple of undefeated teams for the bottom of my ballot, but neither quite passed muster. St. John’s is 10-0, but the Red Storm have played just two teams ranked in KenPom’s top 100. We won’t know how good this team is until conference play begins. Houston’s road has been better, including Sunday’s home win over Saint Louis, which is the favorite to win the Atlantic 10. The Cougars also staged an impressive comeback win at home over LSU last Wednesday. They haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row, but there’s something to be said for playing a decent schedule and winning every game.
On the other hand, Oklahoma’s win over Notre Dame in Madison Square Garden looks a little better in the wake of the Irish’s victory over Purdue on Saturday. The Sooners also beat Florida and Dayton in the Bahamas, and they handled USC the way a top-25 team should on Saturday night. Plus, they just got their best interior defender, Jamuni McNeace, back in the lineup. Oklahoma is trending up, and as usual I am ahead of the curve.
N.C. State is 9-1, but five of those wins were over teams ranked below No. 300 on KenPom. If the Wolfpack want to prove their mettle, they have a great chance on Wednesday night at home against Auburn. If UAB can take the Tigers to overtime on a neutral court, the Wolfpack should be able to acquit themselves well at home – if they have visions of being a ranked team.
If you watched that fantastic Butler-Indiana game, then you saw two teams that were very evenly matched. If anything, Butler was in command for most of the game. You can make a case for ranking the Bulldogs, but I couldn’t get past those losses to Dayton and Saint Louis. Butler plays at Florida on Dec. 29. A win there would strengthen the Bulldogs’ case considerably. Until then, they’re stuck in Almost Famous.