Reasons to be Optimistic

1and1sju

Well-known member
I'm seeing a lot of people imply that if Lavin can't succeed here, then maybe we need to temper our expectations. And, certainly our recent coaching history suggests that the HC at St Johns isn't an easy job, but it's not impossible. SJU has a lot going in it's favor and I think to a large extend, it is indeed a "sleeping giant".

1) New York
Regardless of whether we are "NY's Team", or not, demographics alone are a huge advantage for St Johns. Our recruiting area in the tri-state is home to 10million people. That's enormous. There are more basketball players in Brooklyn alone than there are in cities like Chicago, Boston, or Miami or in a lot of states. And sure, city basketball might not be what it once was, but that's only because the receent stars - the Lebrons, Kobes, and Durants haven't hailed from NY. But, year in and year out there are a ton of good college players coming out of of our region; more than enough to sustain a successful program, even if we don't land the Lances, the Briscoes, or Kyle Andersons. The "second tier" recruits like Omar Calhoun, Jaren Sina, and Kamari Murphy are the lifeblood of a lot of programs, and should be the backbone of ours.
Lavin is an excellent recruiter (for the most part), but at the end of the day he's a CA guy with national recruiting ties. And we've benefited from those connections for sure. But, the old-timers on here are right. Our program can be supplemented by national recruits, but at the end of the day it should be based on kids from queens, brooklyn, the bronx and northern jersey. We won't get all of them, and we probably won't get the McDonalds All Americans, but there's more than enough to get our share of the rest.

2) $$
The biggest difference between the Norm-era and what we're experiencing now is the resources that are being devoted to the program, both from the University and from donors. Coach Lavin has a very well paid coaching staff, when clearly Norm did not. No expense is being sparred on recruit visits now (the 40-40 club, the dinners, etc), the team stays at better hotels and even stays at a midtown hotel the night before MSG home games, and I can only imagine what the travel budget is now for the coaching staff. Plus, of course, we've shown that we can pay a coach $2mil a year. And that's a big big raise for guys coming from Manhatta, URI, or Buffalo. If this type of support continues we won't fall back to the Norm days.
And with the money we get from Fox now, there's no reason to think it will stop. (assuming the coach doesn't piss-off our friend Mike).

3) Exposure
Say what you want about being overshadowed by the Knicks and Rangers, but there is a lot of truth to the fact that guys like Hardy and Moe got their names out there because they were plastered all over the back-pages of the local sports sections. Between MSG, the media, and Under Armour ... we may not have the exposure of UNC but we are still relevant. And the new Big East, while not the colossus that the old conference was, still has us on a national network, and we're still playing national programs like Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, and Duke. The conference in and of itself won't kill this program. It may not propel us, but it's more than stable enough to support St Johns if we do the other things right. Memphis, UNLV, UCONN etc aren't in a Power conference anymore either, and they're still bringing in top 100 recruits, as is Gonzaga, VCU, Providence, San Diego, and Marquette etc.

The bottom-line is that we do not have to settle for being irrelevant. SJU might not have as many built in advantages as Michigan State or Duke, but there are pluses to coaching and playing here. We can rise again. And it doesn't have to take "many years". There is no guarantee that Jordan and Obekpa will be gone, every spring transfer recruits and de-commitments become available, and the hiring of a new coach always creates buzz around a program.
 
4) St.John's new President Bobby Gempesaw is an astute, knowledgeable and hands on individual. Gempesaw "gets it" The fact makes me more optimistic for a turn around than past years.
 
4) St.John's new President Bobby Gempesaw is an astute, knowledgeable and hands on individual. Gempesaw "gets it" The fact makes me more optimistic for a turn around than past years.

Excellent point. New administration.

This doesn't have to be the same old. We can rise again.
 
Op
I'm seeing a lot of people imply that if Lavin can't succeed here, then maybe we need to temper our expectations. And, certainly our recent coaching history suggests that the HC at St Johns isn't an easy job, but it's not impossible. SJU has a lot going in it's favor and I think to a large extend, it is indeed a "sleeping giant".

1) New York
Regardless of whether we are "NY's Team", or not, demographics alone are a huge advantage for St Johns. Our recruiting area in the tri-state is home to 10million people. That's enormous. There are more basketball players in Brooklyn alone than there are in cities like Chicago, Boston, or Miami or in a lot of states. And sure, city basketball might not be what it once was, but that's only because the receent stars - the Lebrons, Kobes, and Durants haven't hailed from NY. But, year in and year out there are a ton of good college players coming out of of our region; more than enough to sustain a successful program, even if we don't land the Lances, the Briscoes, or Kyle Andersons. The "second tier" recruits like Omar Calhoun, Jaren Sina, and Kamari Murphy are the lifeblood of a lot of programs, and should be the backbone of ours.
Lavin is an excellent recruiter (for the most part), but at the end of the day he's a CA guy with national recruiting ties. And we've benefited from those connections for sure. But, the old-timers on here are right. Our program can be supplemented by national recruits, but at the end of the day it should be based on kids from queens, brooklyn, the bronx and northern jersey. We won't get all of them, and we probably won't get the McDonalds All Americans, but there's more than enough to get our share of the rest.

2) $$
The biggest difference between the Norm-era and what we're experiencing now is the resources that are being devoted to the program, both from the University and from donors. Coach Lavin has a very well paid coaching staff, when clearly Norm did not. No expense is being sparred on recruit visits now (the 40-40 club, the dinners, etc), the team stays at better hotels and even stays at a midtown hotel the night before MSG home games, and I can only imagine what the travel budget is now for the coaching staff. Plus, of course, we've shown that we can pay a coach $2mil a year. And that's a big big raise for guys coming from Manhatta, URI, or Buffalo. If this type of support continues we won't fall back to the Norm days.
And with the money we get from Fox now, there's no reason to think it will stop. (assuming the coach doesn't piss-off our friend Mike).

3) Exposure
Say what you want about being overshadowed by the Knicks and Rangers, but there is a lot of truth to the fact that guys like Hardy and Moe got their names out there because they were plastered all over the back-pages of the local sports sections. Between MSG, the media, and Under Armour ... we may not have the exposure of UNC but we are still relevant. And the new Big East, while not the colossus that the old conference was, still has us on a national network, and we're still playing national programs like Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, and Duke. The conference in and of itself won't kill this program. It may not propel us, but it's more than stable enough to support St Johns if we do the other things right. Memphis, UNLV, UCONN etc aren't in a Power conference anymore either, and they're still bringing in top 100 recruits, as is Gonzaga, VCU, Providence, San Diego, and Marquette etc.

The bottom-line is that we do not have to settle for being irrelevant. SJU might not have as many built in advantages as Michigan State or Duke, but there are pluses to coaching and playing here. We can rise again. And it doesn't have to take "many years". There is no guarantee that Jordan and Obekpa will be gone, every spring transfer recruits and de-commitments become available, and the hiring of a new coach always creates buzz around a program.

Reality says:
1. New York-
Duke, Michigan State, Syracuse, UK, UCLA, even Villanova all schedule games in NYC whether at MSG or Barclay's.
There is no recruiting advantage anymore for playing in NYC as all the top coaches can tell them that they'll be there in some shape or form every year.
As the NCAA Selection committee keeps us at a maximum of 3 BE schools making the tourney every year, it will just be leverage for the ACC to get Dolan to bring the ACC Tournament annually to the Garden.

2. $$$-
More money than before, yes.

But how much of that is spent on marketing? How much of that is spent on getting our student body to and from MSG for FREE when there is a game to fill it up?

How much did Lavin blow traveling to and from Europe this summer chasing no-names and back and forth to Cali trying to cover himself last spring chasing average JUCOs?

Him and staff could've travelled as a group anywhere in the country putting in the necessary legwork to land quality out-of-state high school prospects but they chose not to.

How much is spent forging relationships with the local high schools to try to build some pipeline here as every local coach has their hand out?

"More money than Norm" is just a cop out.

3. Exposure
Do you know how many states' local cable companies do not carry FS1 & FS2?

The SEC has their own dedicated ESPN channel.

If it wasn't for Doug McDermott last year, there would be no exposure.

All that being said, if our President is as astute as you all claim he is, then he needs to do the obvious thing and bring in a new AD and come to some "mutual agreement" exit strategy with Lavin prior to the season being over.

He inherited an image issue and it's not going away anytime soon with our current ex-Cali staff.

Alot of highly influential alumni, UA execs and MSG suits wanting to see a much higher ROI than what has been given no matter how you want to Slice it.
 
4) St.John's new President Bobby Gempesaw is an astute, knowledgeable and hands on individual. Gempesaw "gets it" The fact makes me more optimistic for a turn around than past years.

Excellent point. New administration.

This doesn't have to be the same old. We can rise again.

My ignorance - someone must know how he feels about the balance between academics and athletics and where his priorities should be. Especially in light of the shifting landscape of college athletics becoming a semi-pro operation where SJ arguably could not compete.
 
While the money SJU is getting is bigger, the money almost everyone else(not UConn, Cincy, USF) is getting is bigger too. Big 10 schools are talking about $40 million just from their B1G Network arrangement, I’m guessing the SEC won’t be too far behind. ACC, Pac 12, Big 12, all in the mid 20’s due to their cable deals and are all thinking about networks of their own. They also have football programs to feed, so that offsets hoops somewhat, but it isn’t necessarily an apples to apples comparison.

It started with practice facilities, but it’s evolving. Kentucky has private dorms for their players, complete with a full time chef. Kansas is building a luxury dorm as well. In ten years, that may be the norm for P5 schools, so while the money is more for almost every team, it will get harder and harder to keep up with the Joneses.
 
I'm seeing a lot of people imply that if Lavin can't succeed here, then maybe we need to temper our expectations. And, certainly our recent coaching history suggests that the HC at St Johns isn't an easy job, but it's not impossible. SJU has a lot going in it's favor and I think to a large extend, it is indeed a "sleeping giant".

1) New York
Regardless of whether we are "NY's Team", or not, demographics alone are a huge advantage for St Johns. Our recruiting area in the tri-state is home to 10million people. That's enormous. There are more basketball players in Brooklyn alone than there are in cities like Chicago, Boston, or Miami or in a lot of states. And sure, city basketball might not be what it once was, but that's only because the receent stars - the Lebrons, Kobes, and Durants haven't hailed from NY. But, year in and year out there are a ton of good college players coming out of of our region; more than enough to sustain a successful program, even if we don't land the Lances, the Briscoes, or Kyle Andersons. The "second tier" recruits like Omar Calhoun, Jaren Sina, and Kamari Murphy are the lifeblood of a lot of programs, and should be the backbone of ours.
Lavin is an excellent recruiter (for the most part), but at the end of the day he's a CA guy with national recruiting ties. And we've benefited from those connections for sure. But, the old-timers on here are right. Our program can be supplemented by national recruits, but at the end of the day it should be based on kids from queens, brooklyn, the bronx and northern jersey. We won't get all of them, and we probably won't get the McDonalds All Americans, but there's more than enough to get our share of the rest.

2) $$
The biggest difference between the Norm-era and what we're experiencing now is the resources that are being devoted to the program, both from the University and from donors. Coach Lavin has a very well paid coaching staff, when clearly Norm did not. No expense is being sparred on recruit visits now (the 40-40 club, the dinners, etc), the team stays at better hotels and even stays at a midtown hotel the night before MSG home games, and I can only imagine what the travel budget is now for the coaching staff. Plus, of course, we've shown that we can pay a coach $2mil a year. And that's a big big raise for guys coming from Manhatta, URI, or Buffalo. If this type of support continues we won't fall back to the Norm days.
And with the money we get from Fox now, there's no reason to think it will stop. (assuming the coach doesn't piss-off our friend Mike).

3) Exposure
Say what you want about being overshadowed by the Knicks and Rangers, but there is a lot of truth to the fact that guys like Hardy and Moe got their names out there because they were plastered all over the back-pages of the local sports sections. Between MSG, the media, and Under Armour ... we may not have the exposure of UNC but we are still relevant. And the new Big East, while not the colossus that the old conference was, still has us on a national network, and we're still playing national programs like Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, and Duke. The conference in and of itself won't kill this program. It may not propel us, but it's more than stable enough to support St Johns if we do the other things right. Memphis, UNLV, UCONN etc aren't in a Power conference anymore either, and they're still bringing in top 100 recruits, as is Gonzaga, VCU, Providence, San Diego, and Marquette etc.

The bottom-line is that we do not have to settle for being irrelevant. SJU might not have as many built in advantages as Michigan State or Duke, but there are pluses to coaching and playing here. We can rise again. And it doesn't have to take "many years". There is no guarantee that Jordan and Obekpa will be gone, every spring transfer recruits and de-commitments become available, and the hiring of a new coach always creates buzz around a program.

If I were in charge:

1) I'd build an athletic dorm in NYC, maybe in the west village or some other trendy area. NYC attracts EVERYONE these days. A dorm in the city would sway a lot of kids to come to NYC, rather than Queens.

2) If there is to be a next coach, SJU will not pony up $2 million plus per year. Bobby has already canceled merit wages in the midst of declining enrollment, and will not continue to pay Lavin unless this team makes some noise. Presuming Lavin isn't back and big donors don't pony up, look for a mid major guy to come in. I'd bet on Cluess turning this thing around.

3) Creighton packs in 19,000 every game in OMAHA. We can't fill 5500 in Queens. Students will show up for events, like the Frenchy Montana concert on the first practice day. Hire a top notch marketing firm with designs to make every home game an event, not just a game.

4) NYC may be the media capital of the world, but every ranked team gets plenty of tv exposure, especially in big conferences.
 
I'm seeing a lot of people imply that if Lavin can't succeed here, then maybe we need to temper our expectations. And, certainly our recent coaching history suggests that the HC at St Johns isn't an easy job, but it's not impossible. SJU has a lot going in it's favor and I think to a large extend, it is indeed a "sleeping giant".

1) New York
Regardless of whether we are "NY's Team", or not, demographics alone are a huge advantage for St Johns. Our recruiting area in the tri-state is home to 10million people. That's enormous. There are more basketball players in Brooklyn alone than there are in cities like Chicago, Boston, or Miami or in a lot of states. And sure, city basketball might not be what it once was, but that's only because the receent stars - the Lebrons, Kobes, and Durants haven't hailed from NY. But, year in and year out there are a ton of good college players coming out of of our region; more than enough to sustain a successful program, even if we don't land the Lances, the Briscoes, or Kyle Andersons. The "second tier" recruits like Omar Calhoun, Jaren Sina, and Kamari Murphy are the lifeblood of a lot of programs, and should be the backbone of ours.
Lavin is an excellent recruiter (for the most part), but at the end of the day he's a CA guy with national recruiting ties. And we've benefited from those connections for sure. But, the old-timers on here are right. Our program can be supplemented by national recruits, but at the end of the day it should be based on kids from queens, brooklyn, the bronx and northern jersey. We won't get all of them, and we probably won't get the McDonalds All Americans, but there's more than enough to get our share of the rest.

2) $$
The biggest difference between the Norm-era and what we're experiencing now is the resources that are being devoted to the program, both from the University and from donors. Coach Lavin has a very well paid coaching staff, when clearly Norm did not. No expense is being sparred on recruit visits now (the 40-40 club, the dinners, etc), the team stays at better hotels and even stays at a midtown hotel the night before MSG home games, and I can only imagine what the travel budget is now for the coaching staff. Plus, of course, we've shown that we can pay a coach $2mil a year. And that's a big big raise for guys coming from Manhatta, URI, or Buffalo. If this type of support continues we won't fall back to the Norm days.
And with the money we get from Fox now, there's no reason to think it will stop. (assuming the coach doesn't piss-off our friend Mike).

3) Exposure
Say what you want about being overshadowed by the Knicks and Rangers, but there is a lot of truth to the fact that guys like Hardy and Moe got their names out there because they were plastered all over the back-pages of the local sports sections. Between MSG, the media, and Under Armour ... we may not have the exposure of UNC but we are still relevant. And the new Big East, while not the colossus that the old conference was, still has us on a national network, and we're still playing national programs like Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, and Duke. The conference in and of itself won't kill this program. It may not propel us, but it's more than stable enough to support St Johns if we do the other things right. Memphis, UNLV, UCONN etc aren't in a Power conference anymore either, and they're still bringing in top 100 recruits, as is Gonzaga, VCU, Providence, San Diego, and Marquette etc.

The bottom-line is that we do not have to settle for being irrelevant. SJU might not have as many built in advantages as Michigan State or Duke, but there are pluses to coaching and playing here. We can rise again. And it doesn't have to take "many years". There is no guarantee that Jordan and Obekpa will be gone, every spring transfer recruits and de-commitments become available, and the hiring of a new coach always creates buzz around a program.

If I were in charge:

1) I'd build an athletic dorm in NYC, maybe in the west village or some other trendy area. NYC attracts EVERYONE these days. A dorm in the city would sway a lot of kids to come to NYC, rather than Queens.

2) If there is to be a next coach, SJU will not pony up $2 million plus per year. Bobby has already canceled merit wages in the midst of declining enrollment, and will not continue to pay Lavin unless this team makes some noise. Presuming Lavin isn't back and big donors don't pony up, look for a mid major guy to come in. I'd bet on Cluess turning this thing around.

3) Creighton packs in 19,000 every game in OMAHA. We can't fill 5500 in Queens. Students will show up for events, like the Frenchy Montana concert on the first practice day. Hire a top notch marketing firm with designs to make every home game an event, not just a game.

4) NYC may be the media capital of the world, but every ranked team gets plenty of tv exposure, especially in big conferences.

#1 is a great idea.
 
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