Reality check before meat of the schedule

Red Drum

Active member
We are shooting 42 from the field 33 from beyond the arc and 67% from the line against not very good competition. Our assist to turnover ratio is almost 1:1.. We have experienced guards, so that isn't good. Hopefully Steere is a presence and will open us for 3's. Heron's head is major concern.
 
the freethrow shooting is the only thing I am disappointed so far this season. otherwise we have succeeded expectations so far as far as numbers and optics are concerned.
 
[quote="Jeff Smith" post=366915]We are shooting 42 from the field 33 from beyond the arc and 67% from the line against not very good competition. Our assist to turnover ratio is almost 1:1.. We have experienced guards, so that isn't good. Hopefully Steere is a presence and will open us for 3's. Heron's head is major concern.[/quote]

I don't think that the guards are always at fault for the low assist total.

Three times on Saturday, Heron made a beautiful feed to Champagine down low, only to have Julian blow the layup. It takes 2 to make an assist.
 
with our margin for error the FT shooting is a big issue. However after the WVU game, there was a soundbyte of CMA talking about the work they put in of FT shooting.
If we can get Heron and Dunn driving and drawing fouls on bigs, that will be important for us. But they have to hit. And of course no more charging calls on those drives. Roberts is going to draw some fouls but I'm not sure he's going to be a reliable FT shooter this season. But I've been consistently wrong about his progress so looking forward to being wrong again.
 
The shooting percentages are sub par and it will be a rare game that the three point shooting is impressive but the team will get more familiar with MA and Dunn in particular will get more comfortable as his game time increases. The addition of Steere should also be a significant boost.
The effort the team put out Saturday was very impressive. Sometimes that twelve o'clock starting time results in a slow start but the team was more than ready and kept it up the whole game.
The last few years had so many games that were important in securing a post season bid and the team played with very little effort. I don't think this current staff is going to let that happen. The shooting stats may not look great but this team is going to surprise.
 
Only three teams on the conference schedule are ranked lower than 50th, DePaul, Creighton and Providence. I am hopeful, but reality doesn't make the hope feel too comfortable.
 
Big East is brutal this year.

I know we'll get better as the season progresses, but so will the other BE schools.

Given the strength of the league, a .500 BE record would be a massive success.
 
I'm pleased with what I've seen so far. This was a rebuilding year anyway, and the current roster has 3 players on it who were recruited by this staff as more than 1 year emergency fill ins:
McGriff (out with an injury)
Champagnie, who has been terrific for a freshman.
Sears, who was a much needed live body and could play his last year somewhere else.

Overall, I've seen a team that is in great shape, plays hard nosed defense, hits the glass like their lives depended on it, and is unselfish. Also, the staff is engaged, hard working and has a plan on both ends of the court.

Considering that this roster construction is less than 20% players they have recruited as multiple year players, I'm not going to get too wrapped up in shooting percentages just now. Some of these guys are not going to excel in this system. Not their fault or the staff's. It just is what it is until they get a chance to fill out the roster with their type of kid.

One thing concerned me going into this weekend: We've been a team that has bullied lesser opponents so far, and got hammered by the one legit team we faced (AZ St). My concern with WVU was how would we respond to being bullied by a team that has historically made a living bullying all but the elite of the power conferences? Would our defense be good enough? Would we be able to score enough? Would we back down to a bigger bully?
Other than Coach taking his foot of the gas about 4 minutes too early for my taste, I had nothing but positive answers to each of those concerns from the WVU result.

The question now is: can this team go .500 in conference?
9-9 in conference would likely put us at either 20-12 or 19-13. One win in the BE tournament and it would be hard to keep them out of the dance.

I don't know if they can get there, but the BE isn't what it was hyped up to be over the summer. There are a lot more "winnable" games on that schedule than previously thought, especially after seeing how we matched up with WVU.

That said, it seems to me that this team has one fatal flaw that I think will be its undoing:
We don't have a go to player to close out games.
We don't have a guy you can run the offense through down the stretch and know you won't have too many empty trips. A guy like Ponds, who you could count on to either get a good shot on his own, get to the free throw line, or set up a teammate.
LG isn't that guy. Can't beat anyone off the dribble when he has too.
Heron could be that guy, but more of a jump shooter than a penetrating threat.
Dunn has the handle and ability to penetrate, but isn't a good shooter.

Maybe one of them develops into that player (fingers crossed), but I'm not optimistic. Either way, it should be an interesting season and there's plenty of early evidence that points to a bright future with this staff.
 
The biggest question so far is the play of Heron. Last year, he was playing out of position, had poor coaching and may have had some chemistry issues with another player. This year, he's playing the off guard position, has better coaching, on a team that appears to play well together.
If he doesn't come out of his slump, Williams and Caraher should to be given more minutes.
 
[soundcloud][/soundcloud][quote="SJUFAN2" post=366927]I'm pleased with what I've seen so far. This was a rebuilding year anyway, and the current roster has 3 players on it who were recruited by this staff as more than 1 year emergency fill ins:
McGriff (out with an injury)
Champagnie, who has been terrific for a freshman.
Sears, who was a much needed live body and could play his last year somewhere else.

Overall, I've seen a team that is in great shape, plays hard nosed defense, hits the glass like their lives depended on it, and is unselfish. Also, the staff is engaged, hard working and has a plan on both ends of the court.

Considering that this roster construction is less than 20% players they have recruited as multiple year players, I'm not going to get too wrapped up in shooting percentages just now. Some of these guys are not going to excel in this system. Not their fault or the staff's. It just is what it is until they get a chance to fill out the roster with their type of kid.

One thing concerned me going into this weekend: We've been a team that has bullied lesser opponents so far, and got hammered by the one legit team we faced (AZ St). My concern with WVU was how would we respond to being bullied by a team that has historically made a living bullying all but the elite of the power conferences? Would our defense be good enough? Would we be able to score enough? Would we back down to a bigger bully?
Other than Coach taking his foot of the gas about 4 minutes too early for my taste, I had nothing but positive answers to each of those concerns from the WVU result.

The question now is: can this team go .500 in conference?
9-9 in conference would likely put us at either 20-12 or 19-13. One win in the BE tournament and it would be hard to keep them out of the dance.

I don't know if they can get there, but the BE isn't what it was hyped up to be over the summer. There are a lot more "winnable" games on that schedule than previously thought, especially after seeing how we matched up with WVU.

That said, it seems to me that this team has one fatal flaw that I think will be its undoing:
We don't have a go to player to close out games.
We don't have a guy you can run the offense through down the stretch and know you won't have too many empty trips. A guy like Ponds, who you could count on to either get a good shot on his own, get to the free throw line, or set up a teammate.
LG isn't that guy. Can't beat anyone off the dribble when he has too.
Heron could be that guy, but more of a jump shooter than a penetrating threat.
Dunn has the handle and ability to penetrate, but isn't a good shooter.

Maybe one of them develops into that player (fingers crossed), but I'm not optimistic. Either way, it should be an interesting season and there's plenty of early evidence that points to a bright future with this staff.[/quote]

Agree with all except the “go to” guy. Most times that strategy becomes hit or miss and people remember the successes and forget the failures; stay in the team concept, run your offense, share the ball and let the chips fall. At least put plays in for the end of the game to get your best players shots within a team concept. Personally hate the strategy of letting one guy consume the ball and firing unless you have an unbelievably dominant player. As good as Ponds, Powell and Howard were/are, the “one man team down the stretch“ lost SJU games, same with SHU and absolutely killed Marquette in the NCAAs last year. IMO, the direct reason the Hausers and I believe one of their guards left that program. I also personally believe it was one of the reasons we looked so utterly inept down the stretch.
 
[quote="Logen" post=366937]
Agree with all except the “go to” guy. Most times that strategy becomes hit or miss and people remember the successes and forget the failures; stay in the team concept, run your offense, share the ball and let the chips fall. At least put plays in for the end of the game to get your best players shots within a team concept. Personally hate the strategy of letting one guy consume the ball and firing unless you have an unbelievably dominant player. As good as Ponds, Powell and Howard were/are, the “one man team down the stretch“ lost SJU games, same with SHU and absolutely killed Marquette in the NCAAs last year. IMO, the direct reason the Hausers and I believe one of their guards left that program. I also personally believe it was one of the reasons we looked so utterly inept down the stretch.[/quote]

Not looking for a one man team Logen, I'm not a fan of that strategy either. Just pointing out that if we have a 10 point lead with 6 minutes to go and our philosophy is going to be to "kill the clock" by running it down to 10 or 12 seconds before initiating our offense, then we need a guy in the ponds mold who is a triple threat to create his own open shot, someone else's open shot, or get to the FT line. We just don't have the guy to get that done that way, on a regular basis.

I'm with you. Keep running the offense that worked for 34 minutes. Share the ball and keep your foot on the gas.
Don't take the air out of the ball because without that go to guy, you run the risk of taking a lot of bad/rushed shots, closing the game on a 1 for 13 run, and giving a good team a chance to make a huge comeback.
 
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[quote="Las Vegan" post=366936]The biggest question so far is the play of Heron. Last year, he was playing out of position, had poor coaching and may have had some chemistry issues with another player. This year, he's playing the off guard position, has better coaching, on a team that appears to play well together.
If he doesn't come out of his slump, Williams and Caraher should to be given more minutes.[/quote]

I like Caraher's basketball IQ, but his limited minutes and effectiveness against WV showed his limitations against athletic, physical teams. One thing for Heron, he is a Big East level athlete. CMA may have no choice because Heron seems prone to early reach in fouls
 
From the very first game I liked the make-up of this team. Once we got Dunn eligible, I liked it that much more. What we lack in talent, we almost make up for in effort, heart and moxie. Now, effort, heart and moxie will only take us so far once we hit the meat of the schedule. My hope is that it takes us far enough to get us an NIT bid, with a NCAA bid being a real long shot. Steere is a huge X factor. If he can provide us real quality minutes down low, we can really be a force to be reckoned with in the Big East. Time will tell. I gotta be honest, besides the first Lavin team, I cannot recall enjoying a team this much since the Artest final 8 team. I know I'm enjoying it way more than last year's team, in spite of the talent on last year's team. It's been a fun ride so far, and while we'll have some stinkers along the way, I fully expect it to be a fun season moving.
 
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AS Logen said:

Agree with all except the “go to” guy. Most times that strategy becomes hit or miss and people remember the successes and forget the failures; stay in the team concept, run your offense, share the ball and let the chips fall. At least put plays in for the end of the game to get your best players shots within a team concept. Personally hate the strategy of letting one guy consume the ball and firing unless you have an unbelievably dominant player. As good as Ponds, Powell and Howard were/are, the “one man team down the stretch“ lost SJU games, same with SHU and absolutely killed Marquette in the NCAAs last year. IMO, the direct reason the Hausers and I believe one of their guards left that program. I also personally believe it was one of the reasons we looked so utterly inept down the stretch.[/quote



I agree with Logen regarding the Go to guy. We are a team and we need a bench. We saw last year that come February and March we were a dog tired team. This year is different and will pay dividends in the future. To date there are 26 players in BE that have played more minutes per game than our first in minutes played--LJ with 27+ minutes; Last year our top 5 were all over 30+, including Ponds at 35/game. As bad as we are shooting, we are 3rd in scoring in BE (0.7/game behind leader Nova). We attempt the most shots/game in the BE by far--games are played at OUR pace, not our opponents. That is what we have to continue; dictate game pace.
 
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[quote="SJUFAN2" post=366940][quote="Logen" post=366937]
Agree with all except the “go to” guy. Most times that strategy becomes hit or miss and people remember the successes and forget the failures; stay in the team concept, run your offense, share the ball and let the chips fall. At least put plays in for the end of the game to get your best players shots within a team concept. Personally hate the strategy of letting one guy consume the ball and firing unless you have an unbelievably dominant player. As good as Ponds, Powell and Howard were/are, the “one man team down the stretch“ lost SJU games, same with SHU and absolutely killed Marquette in the NCAAs last year. IMO, the direct reason the Hausers and I believe one of their guards left that program. I also personally believe it was one of the reasons we looked so utterly inept down the stretch.[/quote]

Not looking for a one man team Logen, I'm not a fan of that strategy either. Just pointing out that if we have a 10 point lead with 6 minutes to go and our philosophy is going to be to "kill the clock" by running it down to 10 or 12 seconds before initiating our offense, then we need a guy in the ponds mold who is a triple threat to create his own open shot, someone else's open shot, or get to the FT line. We just don't have the guy to get that done that way, on a regular basis.

I'm with you. Keep running the offense that worked for 34 minutes. Share the ball and keep your foot on the gas.
Don't take the air out of the ball because without that go to guy, you run the risk of taking a lot of bad/rushed shots, closing the game on a 1 for 13 run, and giving a good team a chance to make a huge comeback.[/quote]

Agreed about taking the air out of the ball period, go to guy or no go to guy; I’ve seen enough 25 foot heaves with a shot clock running down from the three guys I mentioned and others to last a lifetime. Could not agree more about continuing to run the game that got you the lead.
 
[quote="Monte" post=366946]From the very first game I liked the make-up of this team. Once we got Dunn eligible, I liked it that much more. What we lack in talent, we almost make up for in effort, heart and moxie. Now, effort, heart and moxie will only take us so far once we hit the meat of the schedule. My hope is that it takes us far enough to get us an NIT bid, with a NCAA bid being a real long shot. Steere is a huge X factor. If he can provide us real quality minutes down low, we can really be a force to be reckoned with in the Big East. Time will tell. I gotta be honest, besides the first Lavin team, I cannot recall enjoying a team this much since the Artest final 8 team. I know I'm enjoying it way more than last year's team, in spite of the talent on last year's team. It's been a fun ride so far, and while we'll have some stinkers along the way, I fully expect it to be a fun season moving.[/quote]

My favorite team since Hatten's senior year, with a style not that far off. our advantage is our unique style of play for the Big East. No Big East team is used to playing against our swarming, double teaming, pressure defense, Hatten would have been a dream player for this team. Very athletic, deceptively strong, a disruptive force on D and the offensive glass, and the go to guy that some posters mentioned. I am enthused for this season, which I honestly expected to be a rebuilding year, and really upbeat for the future of this program.
 
Jeff Smith wrote: We are shooting 42 from the field 33 from beyond the arc and 67% from the line against not very good competition. Our assist to turnover ratio is almost 1:1.. We have experienced guards, so that isn't good. Hopefully Steere is a presence and will open us for 3's. Heron's head is major concern.

We are not going to be a great shooting team but I expect all three of the above numbers (especially free throw and 3 point percentage) to get better not worse as season goes on. 3 of our top 4 scorers are all over 70% from the line - Figgy the only one below and he needs to work on free throws as he was bad last year too and no reason for that given his shooting touch. I am not all that concerned about our assist to turnover ratio so long as it stays around 1:1 or better. Other side of the coin is we are first in the Big East in rebounding and third in scoring.
I give us a very good shot at finishing above .500 (NIT) which would be a great accomplishment for the team and staff. Heron will wind up having a solid year, too good and proven a player not to.
 
I think the one takeaway that I see from the early season is that this team must approach every game with the energy on offense and defense that we saw on Saturday. There is just not enough talent on this team and that is backed up by the shooting numbers. In other words they will need to rely on volume. The more cracks they have the better shot they have at making some. The more turnovers they create the easier shots they’ll get. We will also need to continue to throw the entire bench at teams. Fouls will always be a concern. That’s why Steere is a another big chess piece and hopefully he is up to the job. All of this will start with the energy. If they come out flat we will be in for a long day.
 
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[quote="Monte" post=366946]From the very first game I liked the make-up of this team. Once we got Dunn eligible, I liked it that much more. What we lack in talent, we almost make up for in effort, heart and moxie. Now, effort, heart and moxie will only take us so far once we hit the meat of the schedule. My hope is that it takes us far enough to get us an NIT bid, with a NCAA bid being a real long shot. Steere is a huge X factor. If he can provide us real quality minutes down low, we can really be a force to be reckoned with in the Big East. Time will tell. I gotta be honest, besides the first Lavin team, I cannot recall enjoying a team this much since the Artest final 8 team. I know I'm enjoying it way more than last year's team, in spite of the talent on last year's team. It's been a fun ride so far, and while we'll have some stinkers along the way, I fully expect it to be a fun season moving.[/quote] Lavin first team excellent example for different reasons for me. I was just so beaten down by the Norm years and to be honest it took until the MSG games for me to believe in the levin team but oh man what a ride !!! I dont expect this team to reach that level but this team man they fight. They didn't back down at all from WV and we shot like crap but went punch for punch with them. That's all I ask for
 
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