The below write up on the website "Three Man Weave" projects St. Peter's to be #4 of 11 teams in the MAAC. Guess whose team is projected to be #2.
[URL]https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/maac-2021-preview[/URL]
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4. Saint Peter’s
Outlook: Holy overachievement Batman! Few teams in the country left their preseason KenPom rating further in the dust than the Peacocks did last season. Shaheen Holloway’s squad was one of the youngest teams in the nation in 2019-20 and were coming off a 10-22 (6-12) year. Because of this, SPU was voted 9th in the preseason MAAC poll and started the year ranked 314th in KenPom. Holloway quickly proved just how wrong we all were about his Peacocks and ended the season ranked 194th and 2nd in the MAAC. This was not a typical college basketball team – the Peacocks’ leading scorer averaged 8.5 PPG and nobody played over 23 MPG. Holloway and Co. relied heavily on defense to win basketball games, a side so often forgotten about by fans and pundits alike. SPU’s best player, Aaron Estrada, transferred away this offseason, but Holloway brings back a promising core of players including five sophomores looking to build upon their solid freshman seasons.
Saint Peter’s overachieved in spite of its offense, which was one of the worst units in the country. Only two players on the squad turned in an offensive rating over 100.0, and the Peacocks ranked 300th nationally in efficiency, 348th in turnover rate, and 345th in 2P%. The offensive glass was the only saving grace for a team that couldn’t find water if it fell out of a boat – that and the free throw line, which SPU desperately clung to, ranking 16th in the country in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe. SPU’s turnover woes was a major reason it was pressed at the 5th highest rate in the country – opposing teams knew they could disrupt the young Peacock guards early and often. Estrada handled most of the ball handling duties last year, so his transfer really hurts – sophomore guard Matthew Lee, junior CG Dallas Watson, and Murray State transfer Noah Kamba will be looked upon to provide some semblance of ball security in the backcourt.
Elite defense can take you far in college basketball, and Saint Peter’s was proof of that in 2019-20. The Peacocks were DOMINANT on this end in MAAC play, posting a defensive rating of 91.5, which would have been the 15th best mark in the country had SPU continued that pace throughout non-conference play. The difference between SPU’s D-rating and the 2nd best defensive squad in the MAAC was GREATER than the difference between the 2nd best squad and the 8th. Holloway extended pressure, often across the entire floor, resulting in SPU forcing a multitude of turnovers. When opposing teams broke through this pressure, they were met by a frontcourt unit that shut down shot opportunities – SPU ranked #1 in the MAAC in eFG% defense and #1 in block rate. Per Synergy, the Peacocks were the 18th best halfcourt man-to-man team in the country on a PPP basis. With KC Ndefo returning, among others, there’s plenty of reason to believe the Peacocks can be this dominant on the defensive end of the floor in 2020-21.
Ndefo was a one-man wrecking crew defensively last season. He was the MAAC Defensive Player of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year and earned 3rd Team All-Conference honors. Despite standing just 6’7”, Ndefo stood up to even the brawniest of post-men, leading the league in block rate and ranking 8th overall in the country.
Ndefo also led the MAAC in steal rate, a feat almost never accomplished by a forward, and was one of the better rebounders in the league on both ends of the floor. His defensive positioning and footwork is near-perfect, and he should be the fiercest defender in the MAAC once again this season.
Splitting time with Ndefo in the frontcourt (as is Holloway’s rotation preference) will be the brothers Drame, Fousseyni and Hassan. Both are 6’7”, both are mobile forwards, both have the ability to face-up from the perimeter and drive to the cup. Fousseyni Drame ranked 4th in the MAAC in OR% and 6th in steal rate last season while Hassan Drame ranked 5th in the MAAC in both OR% and DR%. Neither, of course, were efficient offensively, but there’s plenty of hope for improvement in just their second collegiate seasons.
Everyone else on the roster will be factors in Holloway’s backcourt / wing rotation – SPU played the most bench minutes in the country last season and it wasn’t even that close. Daryl Banks III, Doug Edert, and Matthew Lee – all sophomores – likely start for the Peacocks. Banks III earned MAAC All-Rookie honors, showing his ability to get to the line and attack the basket with impressive quickness. He’ll look to improve upon woeful shooting splits this year. Edert was also a member of the MAAC All-Rookie squad and one of the two Peacocks to post an O-rating over 100.0 He’s a pure shooter who knocked down 44.2% of his triple tries last season. Lee likely takes on the PG duties with Estrada’s departure, a scary thought after he posted a 30.5% turnover rate as a freshman. Shaky ball handling aside, Lee is an excellent outside shooter and a pesky on-ball defender.
Dallas Watson played a ton early in the year before being relegated to a more bench-centric role – he hasn’t posted an O-rating over 80.0 in two seasons and is in danger of falling deeper down the pecking order.
Holloway’s newcomers are dripping with potential and could all make immediate impacts with the coach’s willingness to play everyone on his roster. Noah Kamba was a highly regarded recruit coming to Murray State, and I actually picked him to win Freshman of the Year in the OVC last season. That clearly did not come to fruition, as Kamba played sparingly for the Racers and struggled when he saw the floor. Still, the talent is there for Kamba to develop into a dangerous offensive player in the MAAC – something SPU could really use. Freshman wing Zarique Nutter out of the Patrick School has the athleticism, length, and quickness to be an immediate factor on defense. His offensive game needs some polish, but at least he already has “run the floor and dunk” nailed down pat. Freshman PG Marty Silvera out of Putnam Science Academy is a thick guard who plays low to the ground ala Matthew Lee. He’s very skilled and could carve out a spot in Holloway’s rotation if the other guards on the roster fail to cut down on costly turnovers.
Bottom Line: Saint Peter’s is not a sexy team. The Peacocks will get overlooked due to their ugly style of play, physicality, bad offense, and lack of individual counting stats. But rest assured, this is still the best defensive team in the MAAC and one of the best defensive teams in the mid-major realm – that means a ton in college basketball and is enough to vault them into the top four of the conference standings this year.
