Point spreads

E

Eric

Well-known member
2023 $upporter
I am usually very good at guessing what these lines are set at but now that this St Johns Seton Hall opening line has baffled me I have been trying to look closer at some individual lines being set.

Today has Duquesne home at 9-6 overall and 0-3 in their conference vs Richmond at 11-5 overall and 3-0 in their conference. Richmond 82 NET Duquesne 91.

Similar enough out of conference schedules although from eye test Richmond looks better.

So Richmond on the road is getting 4.5 as I think they should be (maybe 2-3 would be more appropriate) yet they have the higher NET and better record and resume. I am only looking at NET as St. Johns NET is higher than Seton Halls.

I have also researched home court advantages as some home courts are stronger than others but this St Johns line makes no sense whatsoever. I stick to the 3-4 I thought they should be in this game.

The closest thing I have noticed in setting lines over the years of my investing is that the sagarin ratings/rankings is usually very similar as to what the lines are set at with their calculations.
 
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Eric said:
I am usually very good at guessing what these lines are set at but now that this St Johns Seton Hall opening line has baffled me I have been trying to look closer at some individual lines being set.

Today has Duquesne home at 9-6 overall and 0-3 in their conference vs Richmond at 11-5 overall and 3-0 in their conference. Richmond 82 NET Duquesne 91.

Similar enough out of conference schedules although from eye test Richmond looks better.

So Richmond on the road is getting 4.5 as I think they should be (maybe 2-3 would be more appropriate) yet they have the higher NET and better record and resume. I am only looking at NET as St. Johns NET is higher than Seton Halls.

I have also researched home court advantages as some home courts are stronger than others but this St Johns line makes no sense whatsoever. I stick to the 3-4 I thought they should be in this game.

The closest thing I have noticed in setting lines over the years of my investing is that the sagarin ratings/rankings is usually very similar as to what the lines are set at with their calculations.
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check out TeamRankings. You will find a high correlation.
 
Was thinking the line would be even given our NET is #32 and theirs #66, so was happy to see we're slight favorites.

I don't bet on games so I don't follow it that closely, but lately St. John's has outperformed the Vegas lines and also is coming off a 1 point loss. Plus there will be some Johnnies fans at the Prudential Center given how close it is. Those could all be factors in making us the narrow favorites tonight.
 
Eric said:
I am usually very good at guessing what these lines are set at but now that this St Johns Seton Hall opening line has baffled me I have been trying to look closer at some individual lines being set.

Today has Duquesne home at 9-6 overall and 0-3 in their conference vs Richmond at 11-5 overall and 3-0 in their conference. Richmond 82 NET Duquesne 91.

Similar enough out of conference schedules although from eye test Richmond looks better.

So Richmond on the road is getting 4.5 as I think they should be (maybe 2-3 would be more appropriate) yet they have the higher NET and better record and resume. I am only looking at NET as St. Johns NET is higher than Seton Halls.

I have also researched home court advantages as some home courts are stronger than others but this St Johns line makes no sense whatsoever. I stick to the 3-4 I thought they should be in this game.

The closest thing I have noticed in setting lines over the years of my investing is that the sagarin ratings/rankings is usually very similar as to what the lines are set at with their calculations.
Click to expand...
NET, record, and resume aren't factored in to lines pretty much at all so would completely eliminate those from your process.

It's all about the analytics sites. KenPom is the holy grail of linesmaking in CBB but that doesn't account for injuries/suspensions and whatnot. I believe sportsbooks are also incorporating some data ShotQuality (https://shotquality.com/team-standings) as well. They also know which teams are consistently getting bet up/down from their KP projections. For example if a book opens 3 straight SJU games right on the KP number but all 3 games see early SJU money then the next game they move it a point or 2 off the KP line at open.
 
MugCostanza said:
NET, record, and resume aren't factored in to lines pretty much at all so would completely eliminate those from your process.

It's all about the analytics sites. KenPom is the holy grail of linesmaking in CBB but that doesn't account for injuries/suspensions and whatnot. I believe sportsbooks are also incorporating some data ShotQuality (https://shotquality.com/team-standings) as well. They also know which teams are consistently getting bet up/down from their KP projections. For example if a book opens 3 straight SJU games right on the KP number but all 3 games see early SJU money then the next game they move it a point or 2 off the KP line at open.
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Sagrain has been pretty close as well for many years. I would say 90% the times I have looked to see if it correlates and if its off its by 1 point. And without looking at it prior to my thinking dogs 3-4 points, it would be 4 based on sagarin looking at it just now.

Duquesne would be 4 point fav over richmond based on sagarin which again falls in line with what it is.
 
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Eric said:
Sagrain has been pretty close as well for many years. I would say 90% the times I have looked to see if it correlates and if its off its by 1 point. And without looking at it prior to my thinking dogs 3-4 points, it would be 4 based on sagarin looking at it just now.

Duquesne would be 4 point fav over richmond based on sagarin which again falls in line with what it is.
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Yep Sagarin is a good one as well. It also doesn't account for injuries/suspensions but it'll typically be right in line with KP and the actual line
 
MugCostanza said:
Yep Sagarin is a good one as well. It also doesn't account for injuries/suspensions but it'll typically be right in line with KP and the actual line
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I had not looked at sagarin this year until today and weird that he has not posted anything for the 2023-24 season. What is even weirder is some of these lines today follow suit to the ratings from last year so wonder if the teams are still having their positions adjusted even though its on last years site.

Delving further some people have posted he will not be providing his ratings page anymore.
 
Point spreads are not a reflection of the bookies opinion of each team or what they feel the final score will be. The purpose of the line is to try and attract equal action on each side...period. Records, rankings and ratings are helpful as a starting point in the process of line creation, yet it's certainly not hard science. It's an art.
 
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carmineabbatiello said:
Point spreads are not a reflection of the bookies opinion of each team or what they feel the final score will. The purpose of the line is to try and attract equal action on each side...period. Records, rankings and ratings are helpful as a starting point in the process of line creation, yet it's certainly not hard science. It's an art.
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This is wildly incorrect
 
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