I have seen a number of comments on the board along the lines of “scoring isn’t our problem because we score 80 points per game” or “our defense sucks because we give up 80 points per game.” I think what those posts are missing is that both of those raw numbers are a function of pace. We play at one of the fastest paces in the country, so there are more offensive and defensive possessions in our games, which naturally leads to both more points scored and more points allowed.
Given the need to factor in pace in order to give the raw numbers some context, it seems to me that a better metric for assessing how good or bad we are on offense or defense is points per possession, also known as “offensive efficiency” and “defensive efficiency.” So I decided to look that up to see where we stand nationally, how we compare to last year, and where we stack up against the rest of the Big East. I thought it might also be interesting to see how that compares to our record.
Offensive Efficiency
At the moment, we rank 100th in offensive efficiency at 1.035 points per possession. For purposes of comparison, that’s an improvement from last year when we averaged 1.029 points per possession. Villanova leads the Big East at 1.108 PPP (13th in the country), U Conn is 39th at 1.071, Providence is 80th at 1.042. So we are currently 4th in the Big East in offensive efficiency unless I missed somebody, but you can look for yourself here:
[URL][URL]https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-efficiency[/URL][/url]
Defensive Efficiency
Meanwhile, we rank 90th in defensive efficiency at .960 points per possession. For purposes of comparison, this is an improvement from last year when we allowed 1.00 points per possession. In the Big East, UConn is the leader at .915 PPP (26th in the country), Creighton is 54th at .940 PPP, Seton Hall is 58th at .942, Xavier is 68th at .948, Nova is 78 at .955, and Marquette is listed at 89th but has the same defensive PPP as us at .960. So we are currently tied for 6th in the Big East in defensive efficiency, again unless I missed somebody but you can check for yourself here:
[URL][URL]https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency[/URL][/url]
Efficiency vs Record
So if you go by the offensive and defensive efficiency averages, you'd expect St. John's to be around 5th in the Big East - which we aren't. Obviously averages do not tell the whole story - one great game and two bad ones can create the same average as three mediocre games.
My working theory this season has been that when we are offensively efficient we win, and when we aren't we lose. The corollary theory has been that our offensive efficiency numbers are highly correlated to Champagnie's scoring. Unfortunately what I don't have (although I didn't spend a ton of time trying to find it and wouldn't have the time to analyze it today anyway) are the game-by-game offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. My guess (just a guess) is that what those would show is a relatively consistent level of defensive efficiency, but a very variable level of offensive efficiency with high numbers in the games where Julian scores well and we win and low numbers in games where he doens't and we lose.
Anyway, I was not entirely surprised to see that we are actually better in both categories this year as compared to last year, yet have a worse record. It reflects what has been pretty obvious from the beginning, which is that (except for Georgetown), the league is much stronger this year than it was last year. It is still disappointing that our W/L record trails what it should be based on our efficiency averages, but as mentioned above I think the devil is in the details there, which at the moment I don't have.
Just thought some might find the data interesting - I'm sure there is more there that I haven't pulled out on a once-over-lightly analysis.
Given the need to factor in pace in order to give the raw numbers some context, it seems to me that a better metric for assessing how good or bad we are on offense or defense is points per possession, also known as “offensive efficiency” and “defensive efficiency.” So I decided to look that up to see where we stand nationally, how we compare to last year, and where we stack up against the rest of the Big East. I thought it might also be interesting to see how that compares to our record.
Offensive Efficiency
At the moment, we rank 100th in offensive efficiency at 1.035 points per possession. For purposes of comparison, that’s an improvement from last year when we averaged 1.029 points per possession. Villanova leads the Big East at 1.108 PPP (13th in the country), U Conn is 39th at 1.071, Providence is 80th at 1.042. So we are currently 4th in the Big East in offensive efficiency unless I missed somebody, but you can look for yourself here:
[URL][URL]https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-efficiency[/URL][/url]
Defensive Efficiency
Meanwhile, we rank 90th in defensive efficiency at .960 points per possession. For purposes of comparison, this is an improvement from last year when we allowed 1.00 points per possession. In the Big East, UConn is the leader at .915 PPP (26th in the country), Creighton is 54th at .940 PPP, Seton Hall is 58th at .942, Xavier is 68th at .948, Nova is 78 at .955, and Marquette is listed at 89th but has the same defensive PPP as us at .960. So we are currently tied for 6th in the Big East in defensive efficiency, again unless I missed somebody but you can check for yourself here:
[URL][URL]https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency[/URL][/url]
Efficiency vs Record
So if you go by the offensive and defensive efficiency averages, you'd expect St. John's to be around 5th in the Big East - which we aren't. Obviously averages do not tell the whole story - one great game and two bad ones can create the same average as three mediocre games.
My working theory this season has been that when we are offensively efficient we win, and when we aren't we lose. The corollary theory has been that our offensive efficiency numbers are highly correlated to Champagnie's scoring. Unfortunately what I don't have (although I didn't spend a ton of time trying to find it and wouldn't have the time to analyze it today anyway) are the game-by-game offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. My guess (just a guess) is that what those would show is a relatively consistent level of defensive efficiency, but a very variable level of offensive efficiency with high numbers in the games where Julian scores well and we win and low numbers in games where he doens't and we lose.
Anyway, I was not entirely surprised to see that we are actually better in both categories this year as compared to last year, yet have a worse record. It reflects what has been pretty obvious from the beginning, which is that (except for Georgetown), the league is much stronger this year than it was last year. It is still disappointing that our W/L record trails what it should be based on our efficiency averages, but as mentioned above I think the devil is in the details there, which at the moment I don't have.
Just thought some might find the data interesting - I'm sure there is more there that I haven't pulled out on a once-over-lightly analysis.
