Non-Conference Schedule

ghostzapper

ghostzapper

Well-known member
2023 $upporter
Now that the season has started it seemed like a good time to examine the Non-conference part of the schedule. There are thirteen non-conference games on the schedule this season. Twelve of the games are against Division one opponents. To have a season that will land us in the NCAA tournament we need to be fairly successful during these games. That means holding serve against teams we should beat (like New Orleans in the opener) and winning most of the games that are supposed to be competitive affairs. Duke is the only team on our out of conference schedule that we are likely to be considered a big underdog against.

I have listed the thirteen out of conference games on our schedule below along with the current RPI for those Division one opponents (FYI St. John's RPI is 73). Most of these games should be winnable. An 11-2 or 10-3 out of conference record would be very good and would mean twenty wins would be attainable with around a five hundred conference record. In the end we will need to play well all season but this part of the schedule is essential to give us the start we will need to make the tournament. A 7-6 record or less will put a large burden on us to really dominate in conference play. Hopefully we can get off to a fast start and make the NCAA tournament. It seems reasonable to me but what is reasonable in November may look very different in March. What do you think?

11/10 New Orleans 176 Home
11/14 Central Ct. 338 Home
11/16 Nebraska 97 Home
11/20 Molloy (Not Division One) Home
11/23 Oregon State 270 Neutral
11/24 Missouri 90 or Long Beach State 143 Neutral
11/26 West Virginia 30 or Central Florida 67 or Nebraska 97 or Marist 302 Neutral
12/2 Sacred Heart 313 Home
12/5 Grand Canyon 112 Away
12/8 Arizona state 98 Neutral
12/17 Iona 137 Home
12/20 St. Joseph’s 239 Neutral
2/3/18 Duke 10 Home
 
Be very sweet to sweep the Board. We've beaten Duke at the Garden now and then. And 11 - 2 would be very good (losses to WVA and Duke).
Need to stay healthy and eligible.
We shall see.
 
We have finished the November part of the Non-Conference schedule (see below). After playing 7 games in just sixteen days we now get five days off before we start the December part of the schedule. This seemed like a good time to take a break and look at how we are doing so far.

We won six of the seven games we played and are still in reach to get to the ten or eleven wins out of conference that would help put us on the road to a potential NCAA bid. Of the seven games we played so far: we have displayed some great promise against Nebraska, avoided the type of troubling (see Delaware State, Incarnate Word, St. Thomas Aquinas) stumbles against New Orleans, Central Ct. and Molloy and played inconsistently yet at times gritty while going 2 and 1 against (Oregon State, Missouri and Central Florida) during the Advocare Invitational in Orlando, Florida.

While we continue to be too thin in both inside bulk and roster depth we have been much better defensively and by and large have avoided the type of poor 40 minute efforts that characterized some of our non-conference struggles the last two years. Additionally our guards have mostly been superior to our opponents in both speed and skill and have been able to assert their will during a good portion of our games thus far.

The December portion of the non-conference schedule has five games that we could win, but we must not stumble much to continue on our road to a successful season. Losing more than one of those five games would be less than ideal but the most important thing is to stay healthy, continue to grow and to come out of these games improved and confident that we can beat Big East opponents more often than not.
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11/10 New Orleans Home W, 77-61
11/14 Central Ct. Home W, 80-55
11/16 Nebraska Home W, 79-56
11/20 Molloy Home W, 71-43
11/23 Oregon State Neutral W, 82-77
11/24 Missouri Neutral L, 90-82
11/26 Central Florida Neutral W, 46-43
12/2 Sacred Heart Home
12/5 Grand Canyon Away
12/8 Arizona state Neutral
12/17 Iona Home
12/20 St. Joseph’s Neutral
2/3/18 Duke Home
 
Recipe to making the tournament is:
10 Wins non Conference - Going 10-3. Thinking we lose to Duke and split on West coast Trip. Hoping we win both but have a feeling we lose to Arizona State.
10 Wins in big east conference season That gets us to 20
Win 1 in the Big East tournament Gets us to 21.

The committee does not look at Molloy as a real game so 21 wins is important.
 
Recipe to making the tournament is:
10 Wins non Conference - Going 10-3. Thinking we lose to Duke and split on West coast Trip. Hoping we win both but have a feeling we lose to Arizona State.
10 Wins in big east conference season That gets us to 20
Win 1 in the Big East tournament Gets us to 21.

The committee does not look at Molloy as a real game so 21 wins is important.
Click to expand...

I agree that getting 20 wins(10 in he Big East) not including Molloy would be enough to get us in. The Arizona State game will be a battle but we can't have any letdowns against Grand Canyon, Iona and St. Joe's. Getting to 10 wins in conference won't be easy either.

DePaul 2 wins
Georgetown 2 wins??
Butler/Marquette/Providence 3 wins??
Villanova/Xavier/Creighton/Seton Hall 3 wins??

Something like the above won't be was easy. Time will tell.
 
Is eligibility something you are afraid of? What have you heard?? That is scary to even think about. They were all mostly here this summer, it doesnt seem like that is something we need to worry about.
 
No, no worries. I'm normally neurotic about jinns ready to wreak havoc on SJU. That's all. I forget when, but we have been bitten by that demon in the past. But I think Mullin knows the pitfalls in that sphere.
I'm still shell-shocked about the ugly 'win' over UCF who was pummeled by WVU.
So, I'm far more worried about the West Coast trip. Our two primary guys going 6 - 32 from the field, 2 - 14 from 3-point range, and a negative A/TO ratio in that game worries me.
Great talents, but they must not continue to force shots and make it their 'show'.
Maybe Ponds still recovering from that wrist / hand injury.
Well hope he heels this week.
 
Those are going to be two tough games on the west coast trip. ASU is undefeated and beat Xavier handily while Grand Canyon's only loss is to undefeated San Diego team and they led that one at halftime. Just saw that all 3 of Grand Canyon's top scorers are shooting the 3 at 42% or better, so we will need to concentrate on shutting down open 3s for that one. A split of those 2 games would be just fine with 2 less challenging games to follow.
 
Recipe to making the tournament is:
10 Wins non Conference - Going 10-3. Thinking we lose to Duke and split on West coast Trip. Hoping we win both but have a feeling we lose to Arizona State.
10 Wins in big east conference season That gets us to 20
Win 1 in the Big East tournament Gets us to 21.

The committee does not look at Molloy as a real game so 21 wins is important.
Click to expand...

If we want in the NCAA Tourny then we gotta show something, and beating AZ St would be showing something.
 
Those are going to be two tough games on the west coast trip. ASU is undefeated and beat Xavier handily while Grand Canyon's only loss is to undefeated San Diego team and they led that one at halftime. Just saw that all 3 of Grand Canyon's top scorers are shooting the 3 at 42% or better, so we will need to concentrate on shutting down open 3s for that one. A split of those 2 games would be just fine with 2 less challenging games to follow.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be fine with a split there, I guess I'm greedy, but I want it all.
Do I expect 2 wins next week? Nope. But if we spilt I wouldn't be satisfied.
If we want in the NCAA then we can't get satisfied.

We should beat Sacred Heart, so if we split they'll be right where I had them before the season with 2 losses.
I hope they're a +1 after AZ St.
 
10 OOC wins and we're in a solid spot provided we go about .500 in BE play. Right on the bubble.

9 OOC wins would mean going 3-3 rest of the way. So really, 10 should be very attainable. 9 OOC wouldn't be good but we wouldn't be out of it either, just would probably need to go about 11-7 or better in conference play.
 
10 OOC wins and we're in a solid spot provided we go about .500 in BE play. Right on the bubble.

9 OOC wins would mean going 3-3 rest of the way. So really, 10 should be very attainable. 9 OOC wouldn't be good but we wouldn't be out of it either, just would probably need to go about 11-7 or better in conference play.
Click to expand...

I'm not looking at the Duke game since it's in February.

Vs. SH has to be a W - 6-1 (Molloy doesn't count.)
Say we split at vs GC and AZ St. - 7-2
Vs. Iona has to be a W at MSG - 8-2
Vs St. Joes, they are anything special -9-2

10-8 in conf only puts us at 19-10, want me to add the Duke game?
Well just look at the UF game, down 17 with 11-12 minutes to go, came back and won.
Thinking that's a loss. So 10-8, 19-11. That's NIT worthy not NCAA.

Add 2 wins in the BE tourny to get to 21 wins could get us in, but I'm thinking AZ St is a huge game.
Duke would give us 2 OOC losses, we can't have anymore then 2 OOC losses.
I'd feel alot better at 11-7 in conf too.
 
10 OOC wins and we're in a solid spot provided we go about .500 in BE play. Right on the bubble.

9 OOC wins would mean going 3-3 rest of the way. So really, 10 should be very attainable. 9 OOC wouldn't be good but we wouldn't be out of it either, just would probably need to go about 11-7 or better in conference play.
Click to expand...

I'm not looking at the Duke game since it's in February.

Vs. SH has to be a W - 6-1 (Molloy doesn't count.)
Say we split at vs GC and AZ St. - 7-2
Vs. Iona has to be a W at MSG - 8-2
Vs St. Joes, they are anything special -9-2

10-8 in conf only puts us at 19-10, want me to add the Duke game?
Well just look at the UF game, down 17 with 11-12 minutes to go, came back and won.
Thinking that's a loss. So 10-8, 19-11. That's NIT worthy not NCAA.

Add 2 wins in the BE tourny to get to 21 wins could get us in, but I'm thinking AZ St is a huge game.
Duke would give us 2 OOC losses, we can't have anymore then 2 OOC losses.
I'd feel alot better at 11-7 in conf too.
Click to expand...

I agree but I think we need one or the other. If we go 9-3 OOC then we probably need 11-7 in conference. If we go 10-2 then 10-8 should be good enough. Of course it depends on who we beat in the Big East. A win over Villanova goes a lot further then two wins over Georgetown,
 
Pencil Duke as a loss, which would be two losses. Arizona State and Iona really scare me must at worst split those games and win all others.
 
Good points. Reasonable to estimate 9 - 3 OOC (Mizzou, AZ State, Duke), 10 - 8 in BE Regular season, and target 2 wins in BE Tournament...with hopes for better during season and in the tournament.
21 - 12 should get us in the NCAA.
Then fingers crossed for a 'run'.
 
Our Non-Conference Schedule is now complete. We finished at 11 and 2 with today's huge upset win against Duke. With those eleven wins and just two losses during out of conference play it went as well as I thought it could have possibly gone.

Of course the conference part of the schedule imploded on us beyond anything I could have imagined at the start of the season. At 0 and 11 in conference play we hit rock bottom. Hopefully we can get some wins over the next seven games. Other than our next game on the road at Villanova, where we will be big underdogs, each game should be within our reach if we play well. A good finish with some wins can erase some of the disappointment of our terrible start in conference play.

Wed, Feb 7 @ #1 Villanova
Sat, Feb 10 vs Marquette
Wed, Feb 14 @ DePaul
Wed, Feb 21 @ Marquette
Sat, Feb 24 vs Seton Hall
Wed, Feb 28 vs Butler
Sat, Mar 3 @ Providence
 
The interesting thing about our schedule is, with all of the complaints pre season that we didn't line up hard enough of a schedule, we currently have the #5 toughest schedule in the nation. That should say something.

I'd also like to add, with our win yesterday, it catapulted the Big East to #1 in Conference RPI. What an amazing accomplishment.
 
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