Next 4 games

C

CH15

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2023 $upporter
While disappointed with a 9-6 record, the next 4 games will determine whether this team really can make a run at the NCAA tournament or will have a poor season. 9-6 looks poor on paper given the expectations coming into the season (fanned by Lavin as well), but when you step back, it's not quite as bad as it seems. Consider the following:

Out strength of schedule is ranked NINTH in the nation
We have played three of the top ten RPI teams in the nation, including number 1 Wisconsin, very competitively.
We have played two teams forecast to be 1 seeds in the NCAA along with a 2 seed
We have played road games against two solid conference opponents.

Unfortunately, we don't have a win to show for it, but we can certainly play with the best teams in the country.

Losing on the road to Xavier is not a bad loss, nor is losing at Gtown (the score and the effort were extremely poor, but the loss itself is not). That leaves one bad loss in an extremely strong SOS - and that's Penn State.

The next 4 games are critical to the season. Go 4-0 over the stretch and you are .500 in the league and 13-6 overall, and the tone on this board will change dramatically.

I don't think its as bleak as some are making it out to be, and we'll find out over the next 4 whether we have a shot, or not.
 
Fair enough. Win the next four, and they'll have some momentum, and dare I say, some swagger. On the other hand, each of those games is nearly a must-win. If they lost two or more, the wheels will fall off.
 
While disappointed with a 9-6 record, the next 4 games will determine whether this team really can make a run at the NCAA tournament or will have a poor season. 9-6 looks poor on paper given the expectations coming into the season (fanned by Lavin as well), but when you step back, it's not quite as bad as it seems. Consider the following:

Out strength of schedule is ranked NINTH in the nation
We have played three of the top ten RPI teams in the nation, including number 1 Wisconsin, very competitively.
We have played two teams forecast to be 1 seeds in the NCAA along with a 2 seed
We have played road games against two solid conference opponents.

Unfortunately, we don't have a win to show for it, but we can certainly play with the best teams in the country.

Losing on the road to Xavier is not a bad loss, nor is losing at Gtown (the score and the effort were extremely poor, but the loss itself is not). That leaves one bad loss in an extremely strong SOS - and that's Penn State.

The next 4 games are critical to the season. Go 4-0 over the stretch and you are .500 in the league and 13-6 overall, and the tone on this board will change dramatically.

I don't think its as bleak as some are making it out to be, and we'll find out over the next 4 whether we have a shot, or not.
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As one of your initial post, this is a great post! Welcome to the board and keep posting. We need common sense here.
 
While disappointed with a 9-6 record, the next 4 games will determine whether this team really can make a run at the NCAA tournament or will have a poor season. 9-6 looks poor on paper given the expectations coming into the season (fanned by Lavin as well), but when you step back, it's not quite as bad as it seems. Consider the following:

Out strength of schedule is ranked NINTH in the nation
We have played three of the top ten RPI teams in the nation, including number 1 Wisconsin, very competitively.
We have played two teams forecast to be 1 seeds in the NCAA along with a 2 seed
We have played road games against two solid conference opponents.

Unfortunately, we don't have a win to show for it, but we can certainly play with the best teams in the country.

Losing on the road to Xavier is not a bad loss, nor is losing at Gtown (the score and the effort were extremely poor, but the loss itself is not). That leaves one bad loss in an extremely strong SOS - and that's Penn State.

The next 4 games are critical to the season. Go 4-0 over the stretch and you are .500 in the league and 13-6 overall, and the tone on this board will change dramatically.

I don't think its as bleak as some are making it out to be, and we'll find out over the next 4 whether we have a shot, or not.
Click to expand...

Excellent post, a lot of posters are very emotional after the loss, and rightfully so, but the season is far from over. Let's go johnnies!
 
While disappointed with a 9-6 record, the next 4 games will determine whether this team really can make a run at the NCAA tournament or will have a poor season. 9-6 looks poor on paper given the expectations coming into the season (fanned by Lavin as well), but when you step back, it's not quite as bad as it seems. Consider the following:

Out strength of schedule is ranked NINTH in the nation
We have played three of the top ten RPI teams in the nation, including number 1 Wisconsin, very competitively.
We have played two teams forecast to be 1 seeds in the NCAA along with a 2 seed
We have played road games against two solid conference opponents.

Unfortunately, we don't have a win to show for it, but we can certainly play with the best teams in the country.

Losing on the road to Xavier is not a bad loss, nor is losing at Gtown (the score and the effort were extremely poor, but the loss itself is not). That leaves one bad loss in an extremely strong SOS - and that's Penn State.

The next 4 games are critical to the season. Go 4-0 over the stretch and you are .500 in the league and 13-6 overall, and the tone on this board will change dramatically.

I don't think its as bleak as some are making it out to be, and we'll find out over the next 4 whether we have a shot, or not.
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I disagree with you. Xavier was very beatable, GT we surrendered at the opening bell, now we lost to Nova a good team but beatable. If anything Butler which is 0-4 has played better than us. Three of their losses were in overtime. You talk about the next four games as if they are in the bag. I wouldnt underestimate Providence or Depaul and I think we will even have trouble with Dartmouth. Look at our early season wins against the supposed cupcakes. We barely won most of those games. I thnk they were all very competitive except the Fordham game
 
Actually, our SOS is better than 9th depending on where/when you looked.
ESPN has us tied for 5th with Wisconsinhttp://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/sort/sos/order/false
Our RPI is a respectable 57 considering three straight losses. We are certainly in striking distance. 20-21 wins would put us in the top 40 with our strong SOS. No team is getting left out of the field of 68 with that high of an RPI, especially a team that is on a roll.

We are the only team in the country to have played three teams ranked in the top 8 in the polls and the only team to play three top six RPI schools (combined 47-1 record with only loss coming from another member of that trio). We lost two road games to future NCAA tournament teams with RPIs inside 40, and, yes, we lost to fckng Penn State because our best player missed a game-winning FT with no time left. That looks worse every day, but it will never be as bad as a loss to Fordham or as bad as Virginia losing to 5-win Old Dominion last year.

The schedule opens up for this squad. The opportunity is certainly there. Three of the five hardest games out of the way with only @Creighton and @Nova left. The Nova game is at the end of February which is when this team will be playing its best ball. Thank God it isn't any sooner. They need to go at least 3-1over the next four games.
 
Beast and Jack - thank you, appreciate the kind words.

dee - I'm not sure we are that far apart in our views. Yes, both Xavier and Gtown were beatable (as was Nova, Cuse and, to a lesser extent, Wisconsin). All 5 are projected NCAA teams, and the fact that we were competitive in 4 out of 5 of those games is reason for cautious optimism, in my opinion. Sure, I would have thought at the outset of the season we'd have at least one win from that group of games, but I'm not shocked that we lost all 5. In fact, I think we can afford to lose those games provided we win the upcoming games against teams that we will almost certainly be fvored to win. THat doesn't mean I'm certain we'll win all of those games - far from it - but I do think we should beat each of those teams.

Marillac - my figures are from cbsportsline.
 
1. My guess is that StJohns wins the next 4 and finishes the regular season something like 17 wins and 14 losses heading into the. big East Tournament.

2. The "hey, we played them close before we lost" excuses are empty when only one regular player is a freshmen.
 
Otis, I agree with you that the explanation for close losses is hollow when you have only one freshman on the roster, but that also presumes the team needs to improve markedly to make the tournament. I'm not sure that's the case. If they play as they have against Villanova and Syracuse against the rest of the Big East, you are likely looking at a bubble team at worst. That said, the one freshman on the roster happens to be a real talent and has demonstrated meaningful improvement of late. The fact that he's a point guard does mean his improvement can have a more meaningful impact on the team than you'd normally expect from one young player.
 
Otis, I agree with you that the explanation for close losses is hollow when you have only one freshman on the roster, but that also presumes the team needs to improve markedly to make the tournament. I'm not sure that's the case. If they play as they have against Villanova and Syracuse against the rest of the Big East, you are likely looking at a bubble team at worst. That said, the one freshman on the roster happens to be a real talent and has demonstrated meaningful improvement of late. The fact that he's a point guard does mean his improvement can have a more meaningful impact on the team than you'd normally expect from one young player.
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A lot of "ifs" for this team at this stage. Yes, if we play as well as we did against V and Cuse, the next 4 should be wins. The problem is that those games were games the players circled on their schedules as the ones they most want to win. They were sky high for those games and played like it. The will not play that way most games, and no one should expect them to. They have to be able to win games when not at their best, when not feeling it. It worked against the real cupcakes early on, but there are no walkover wins in the Big East. The important thing is to cheer hard and support the team no matter what. Even when we don't share your optimism or analysis.
 
It is way early to begin to think about the NCAA tourney, however I will say this: Sooner or later this team will need to add significant "quality" wins to their resume. If on selection Sunday they are sitting with 18-20 wins, with none of them against a quality team....they are going to the NIT. As an example...Clemson just knocked off Duke. While Duke is nothing special this year...it still will count as a quality win in the eyes of the selection committee. North Carolina has played some brutal games this year...but they also have knocked off some quality teams along the way.
The opportunities to gain quality wins are dwindling.
 
1. My guess is that StJohns wins the next 4 and finishes the regular season something like 17 wins and 14 losses heading into the. big East Tournament.

2. The "hey, we played them close before we lost" excuses are empty when only one regular player is a freshmen.
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Otis there is 30 games so 17-14. That is exactly what i have them from the beginning of the season. I think we win next 3 and Hall stomps us home :(
 
Otis, I agree with you that the explanation for close losses is hollow when you have only one freshman on the roster, but that also presumes the team needs to improve markedly to make the tournament. I'm not sure that's the case. If they play as they have against Villanova and Syracuse against the rest of the Big East, you are likely looking at a bubble team at worst. That said, the one freshman on the roster happens to be a real talent and has demonstrated meaningful improvement of late. The fact that he's a point guard does mean his improvement can have a more meaningful impact on the team than you'd normally expect from one young player.
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Forget about class for a second:
Our rotation players in terms of college experience at D1 level

Jordan - first year
Sanchez - first year
Harrison - third year
Sampson - second year
Greene - third year
Pointer - third year
Obekpa - second year
Branch - third year

So we have 4 players in their third year, and 4 underclassmen. No senior.

Harrison appears to be emerging as a leader, but he hasn't done well as a go to guy. In every other way he has performed well. I think its time for Jordan to assume the reigns with 4 key players taking on the scoring load - Jordan, Harrison, Sampson, and Sanchez.
 
no hope thinks we will win the next for games "lock it up " so says no hope and then we will get on a roll it is time for the team to gel and move forward. we have the talent and we will jelly roll in our next 4 games ..... have HOPE everyone
 
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