Moose
Well-known member
For all the talk about players possibly leaving early and a deep draft and what might happen if they slip to the 2nd round, this recent article on ESPN caught my eye. It's beyond a pay wall so I've taken some but not all relevant snippets.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...ty-2014-second-round-picks-worth/refresh/true
The historical value of second-rounders
What I didn't tell you at the top was that 32 percent of all second-round picks never even play in the NBA. Not a minute. This is one of the many discoveries of the NBA DRAFT Initiative study that I published at Insider in 2009, which I've dusted off and updated this season. From Pervis Ellison to Janis Timma, I've analyzed all 1,442 picks who have been selected since 1989, the first year the draft shrunk from three rounds to the current setup of two.
What else do we find after putting the draft under the microscope? Yes, it's true: Second-round picks are essentially a crapshoot. About one-third don't even play in the NBA. And even if they manage to slip on an NBA uniform, most burn out before lasting three seasons. Of the 603 second-rounders picked between 1989 and 2009, just 246 of them made it to Year 3.
Take, for instance, the 2010 draft class. Stephenson has developed into an All-Star candidate after being drafted in the second round in 2010. Success! Not quite. Just four of the 30 second-rounders from 2010 are still playing in the NBA: Stephenson, Utah backup big man Jeremy Evans, Toronto Raptors reserve Landry Fields and Jarvis Varnado, who is on a 10-day contract with the Chicago Bulls. The 26 others have either flamed out (like Dexter Pittman and Andy Rautins) or never got to light the wick in the first place (like Nemanja Bjelica and Tiny Gallon).
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So where do second-rounders come in? Good question. First-round picks are not only more expensive than second-rounders, but they also count against the cap regardless of whether they are signed. The key is that second-rounders, by rule, do not. So cost-conscious teams looking to preserve precious cap space in summer free-agent sweepstakes or looking to shave down their luxury-tax bill can still add talent to fill out the roster by unloading a first-round pick for a couple of second-rounders.
A tax-flirting team like Chicago, which holds two late-first-round picks next season (Charlotte's first-rounder goes to Chicago if it doesn't fall in the top 10 via the Tyrus Thomas deal), could improve its flexibility by swapping a first-rounder with Hinkie for say, the No. 32 pick and the No. 39 pick. Same goes for Oklahoma City, a team that also holds two late-first-rounders in the 2014 draft. Though it doesn't seem like much in February, second-rounders could hold serious currency for capped-out teams come June.
Furthermore, second-rounders are far cheaper for tax purposes than picking up free agents off the scrap heap. As astutely pointed out by SB Nation's Mark Deeks, there's a reason why forward Erik Murphy remains on the Bulls' roster even though he never plays: As a second-round pick, he is saving them about $1 million in luxury-tax penalties compared to a similar non-drafted rookie thanks to the fine print in the CBA. With a repeater tax on the horizon, CBA minutiae matters more now than ever.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...ty-2014-second-round-picks-worth/refresh/true
The historical value of second-rounders
What I didn't tell you at the top was that 32 percent of all second-round picks never even play in the NBA. Not a minute. This is one of the many discoveries of the NBA DRAFT Initiative study that I published at Insider in 2009, which I've dusted off and updated this season. From Pervis Ellison to Janis Timma, I've analyzed all 1,442 picks who have been selected since 1989, the first year the draft shrunk from three rounds to the current setup of two.
What else do we find after putting the draft under the microscope? Yes, it's true: Second-round picks are essentially a crapshoot. About one-third don't even play in the NBA. And even if they manage to slip on an NBA uniform, most burn out before lasting three seasons. Of the 603 second-rounders picked between 1989 and 2009, just 246 of them made it to Year 3.
Take, for instance, the 2010 draft class. Stephenson has developed into an All-Star candidate after being drafted in the second round in 2010. Success! Not quite. Just four of the 30 second-rounders from 2010 are still playing in the NBA: Stephenson, Utah backup big man Jeremy Evans, Toronto Raptors reserve Landry Fields and Jarvis Varnado, who is on a 10-day contract with the Chicago Bulls. The 26 others have either flamed out (like Dexter Pittman and Andy Rautins) or never got to light the wick in the first place (like Nemanja Bjelica and Tiny Gallon).
_________
So where do second-rounders come in? Good question. First-round picks are not only more expensive than second-rounders, but they also count against the cap regardless of whether they are signed. The key is that second-rounders, by rule, do not. So cost-conscious teams looking to preserve precious cap space in summer free-agent sweepstakes or looking to shave down their luxury-tax bill can still add talent to fill out the roster by unloading a first-round pick for a couple of second-rounders.
A tax-flirting team like Chicago, which holds two late-first-round picks next season (Charlotte's first-rounder goes to Chicago if it doesn't fall in the top 10 via the Tyrus Thomas deal), could improve its flexibility by swapping a first-rounder with Hinkie for say, the No. 32 pick and the No. 39 pick. Same goes for Oklahoma City, a team that also holds two late-first-rounders in the 2014 draft. Though it doesn't seem like much in February, second-rounders could hold serious currency for capped-out teams come June.
Furthermore, second-rounders are far cheaper for tax purposes than picking up free agents off the scrap heap. As astutely pointed out by SB Nation's Mark Deeks, there's a reason why forward Erik Murphy remains on the Bulls' roster even though he never plays: As a second-round pick, he is saving them about $1 million in luxury-tax penalties compared to a similar non-drafted rookie thanks to the fine print in the CBA. With a repeater tax on the horizon, CBA minutiae matters more now than ever.