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SPORTS COLLEGE BASKETBALL / WALL STREET JOURNAL
Miss the NCAA Tournament? Blame the Ball
When teams in the Mountain West Conference began playing with new balls manufactured by Nike, their shooting percentages fell sharply, according to a recent study
By Laine Higgins / WALL STREET JOURNAL
Feb. 19, 2020
The NCAA selection committee considers dozens of metrics and several power rankings when determining which 68 teams compete in March Madness. But this season, one factor that won’t be included could determine whether Utah State earns a bid to the Big Dance: the basketball.
The Mountain West Conference, which includes Utah State, this season partnered with sports technology company ShotTracker to provide its teams with “smart” sensor-embedded basketballs. The five-year partnership is intended to give teams access to advanced statistics, in real time, via location data collected from sensors placed in a basketball facility’s rafters, on players’ jerseys and inside basketballs.
ShotTracker works with several equipment companies, including all three that provide basketballs for the 11 Mountain West teams: Nike, Wilson and Under Armour. But when the program went into effect this season, there was a curious phenomenon in league games. When teams began playing with new smart balls manufactured by Nike, their shooting percentages fell sharply. No such decrease in accuracy was apparent in league games played with other manufacturers’ smart balls.
It’s possible that it’s a fluky coincidence. But according to analysis done by San Diego-based data scientist Neill White, who studied the phenomenon on his college basketball analytics blog, the December decrease in effective field-goal percentage in the conference was statistically significant. The drop was found on both 2- and 3-point shots, though the NCAA moved the 3-point line back about 17 inches to 22 feet and 1¾ inches this summer.
The poor performances were concentrated among Nike-sponsored schools: five of the seven conference teams that play with Nike basketballs saw their effective field-goal percentage fall in games played through Sunday. Meanwhile, Under Armour-sponsored Colorado State’s made 5% less shots when playing with Nike balls. Curiously, the shooting percentages for two of the three teams that play with Wilson basketballs went up.
Performance with the Nike ball has improved some as the season has progressed, but it may be too late for some teams. One of the Nike schools, Utah State, performed so miserably with the new ball at first that it has fallen from being a decent bet for an at-large bid to the NCAA team to a precarious place on the bubble.
“It wasn’t just that they [players] were shooting a little bit worse, you’d have a team that was a good shooting team turn into a bad shooting team,” said White. “I was surprised at the magnitude.”
Players complained that the Nike balls felt greasy and appeared to have shallower grooves that made them difficult to handle. Some also reported an inconsistent bounce due to what they described as a dead spot on the ball.
“No disrespect, but it’s horrible,” said Malachi Flynn of No. 4 San Diego State, whose 26-0 team is currently first in the NET rankings.
ShotTracker co-founder and president Davyeon Ross said that both the company and its manufacturers do rigorous quality control testing, though ShotTracker doesn’t “necessarily address anything that doesn’t have to do with our sensors.”
When asked about the reported dead spot, a ShotTracker spokesperson declined to comment on the products of its partner manufacturers.
Nike did not provide details on its manufacturing process or say whether the exterior of the ball changed from last season to this one. In an emailed statement, a company spokesperson wrote, “We have recently been made aware of an isolated situation with our basketballs in the Mountain West Conference, and we are working closely with the Mountain West and its member schools to ensure they have a basketball that meets their expectations.”
The drop-off in shooting hasn’t affected all of the Mountain West teams equally. For games through Sunday, Nike-sponsored San Diego State has been so dominant on the court that a slight reduction in offensive efficiency—making 55% of their shots with the Nike ball compared with 56% otherwise—has not kept the Aztecs from extending their perfect record.
Still, San Diego State athletic director John David Wicker requested a waiver from Nike to play its home games with Wilson balls embedded with ShotTracker sensors in late January. When the Aztecs began practicing with Wilson basketballs last month, several players were so excited to ditch the Nike balls that they hugged their coaches. San Diego State declined to comment on its decision to change balls.
Nowhere is the shooting dropoff more pronounced than Utah State. In games the Aggies have played with Nike basketballs, the team shoots 28% from behind the arc and 48% overall. In games played with any other brand of basketball, the team makes 35% of its 3-pointers and 54% of its shots.
Consider the long-range shooting of Utah State guard Sam Merrill, the 2019 Mountain West’s player of the year. He’s shooting 41.1% on 3-pointers this year, but his performance varies starkly depending on what ball he uses. In conference games with the Nike ball, he makes 35% of his 3-pointers; with all other basketballs he makes 47%.
Utah State’s struggles resulted in a string of losses in January, all in games played with Nike basketballs. Two defeats were blowouts—a 19-point drubbing at Air Force and a 17-point loss at UNLV—but the Aggies kept it close against San Diego State and Boise State, losing by 9 and 5 points, respectively.
The upshot is that the Aggies’ tournament hopes are hanging on for dear life. The latest NET ranking pegged Utah State at 41st.
“We support the Mountain West and its initiatives of keeping on the cutting edge in technology and competition. That includes the use of ShotTracker technology during the basketball season,” said a spokesperson for Utah State.
White, the data scientist, noted that teams’ shooting percentages with the Nike ball have improved over the last month and by Feb. 9 were back in line with where they were in November. Utah State has also rediscovered its groove, winning seven of its last eight games, including four played with Nike basketballs, and shooting 47.9%. White suspected the change is because players have gotten used to the feel of the allegedly redesigned basketballs.
Associate commissioner Dan Butterly said the Mountain West will play its conference tournament with Nike basketballs. The eventual champion will earn an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, where games are played with basketballs made by Wilson.
Miss the NCAA Tournament? Blame the Ball
When teams in the Mountain West Conference began playing with new balls manufactured by Nike, their shooting percentages fell sharply, according to a recent study
By Laine Higgins / WALL STREET JOURNAL
Feb. 19, 2020
The NCAA selection committee considers dozens of metrics and several power rankings when determining which 68 teams compete in March Madness. But this season, one factor that won’t be included could determine whether Utah State earns a bid to the Big Dance: the basketball.
The Mountain West Conference, which includes Utah State, this season partnered with sports technology company ShotTracker to provide its teams with “smart” sensor-embedded basketballs. The five-year partnership is intended to give teams access to advanced statistics, in real time, via location data collected from sensors placed in a basketball facility’s rafters, on players’ jerseys and inside basketballs.
ShotTracker works with several equipment companies, including all three that provide basketballs for the 11 Mountain West teams: Nike, Wilson and Under Armour. But when the program went into effect this season, there was a curious phenomenon in league games. When teams began playing with new smart balls manufactured by Nike, their shooting percentages fell sharply. No such decrease in accuracy was apparent in league games played with other manufacturers’ smart balls.
It’s possible that it’s a fluky coincidence. But according to analysis done by San Diego-based data scientist Neill White, who studied the phenomenon on his college basketball analytics blog, the December decrease in effective field-goal percentage in the conference was statistically significant. The drop was found on both 2- and 3-point shots, though the NCAA moved the 3-point line back about 17 inches to 22 feet and 1¾ inches this summer.
The poor performances were concentrated among Nike-sponsored schools: five of the seven conference teams that play with Nike basketballs saw their effective field-goal percentage fall in games played through Sunday. Meanwhile, Under Armour-sponsored Colorado State’s made 5% less shots when playing with Nike balls. Curiously, the shooting percentages for two of the three teams that play with Wilson basketballs went up.
Performance with the Nike ball has improved some as the season has progressed, but it may be too late for some teams. One of the Nike schools, Utah State, performed so miserably with the new ball at first that it has fallen from being a decent bet for an at-large bid to the NCAA team to a precarious place on the bubble.
“It wasn’t just that they [players] were shooting a little bit worse, you’d have a team that was a good shooting team turn into a bad shooting team,” said White. “I was surprised at the magnitude.”
Players complained that the Nike balls felt greasy and appeared to have shallower grooves that made them difficult to handle. Some also reported an inconsistent bounce due to what they described as a dead spot on the ball.
“No disrespect, but it’s horrible,” said Malachi Flynn of No. 4 San Diego State, whose 26-0 team is currently first in the NET rankings.
ShotTracker co-founder and president Davyeon Ross said that both the company and its manufacturers do rigorous quality control testing, though ShotTracker doesn’t “necessarily address anything that doesn’t have to do with our sensors.”
When asked about the reported dead spot, a ShotTracker spokesperson declined to comment on the products of its partner manufacturers.
Nike did not provide details on its manufacturing process or say whether the exterior of the ball changed from last season to this one. In an emailed statement, a company spokesperson wrote, “We have recently been made aware of an isolated situation with our basketballs in the Mountain West Conference, and we are working closely with the Mountain West and its member schools to ensure they have a basketball that meets their expectations.”
The drop-off in shooting hasn’t affected all of the Mountain West teams equally. For games through Sunday, Nike-sponsored San Diego State has been so dominant on the court that a slight reduction in offensive efficiency—making 55% of their shots with the Nike ball compared with 56% otherwise—has not kept the Aztecs from extending their perfect record.
Still, San Diego State athletic director John David Wicker requested a waiver from Nike to play its home games with Wilson balls embedded with ShotTracker sensors in late January. When the Aztecs began practicing with Wilson basketballs last month, several players were so excited to ditch the Nike balls that they hugged their coaches. San Diego State declined to comment on its decision to change balls.
Nowhere is the shooting dropoff more pronounced than Utah State. In games the Aggies have played with Nike basketballs, the team shoots 28% from behind the arc and 48% overall. In games played with any other brand of basketball, the team makes 35% of its 3-pointers and 54% of its shots.
Consider the long-range shooting of Utah State guard Sam Merrill, the 2019 Mountain West’s player of the year. He’s shooting 41.1% on 3-pointers this year, but his performance varies starkly depending on what ball he uses. In conference games with the Nike ball, he makes 35% of his 3-pointers; with all other basketballs he makes 47%.
Utah State’s struggles resulted in a string of losses in January, all in games played with Nike basketballs. Two defeats were blowouts—a 19-point drubbing at Air Force and a 17-point loss at UNLV—but the Aggies kept it close against San Diego State and Boise State, losing by 9 and 5 points, respectively.
The upshot is that the Aggies’ tournament hopes are hanging on for dear life. The latest NET ranking pegged Utah State at 41st.
“We support the Mountain West and its initiatives of keeping on the cutting edge in technology and competition. That includes the use of ShotTracker technology during the basketball season,” said a spokesperson for Utah State.
White, the data scientist, noted that teams’ shooting percentages with the Nike ball have improved over the last month and by Feb. 9 were back in line with where they were in November. Utah State has also rediscovered its groove, winning seven of its last eight games, including four played with Nike basketballs, and shooting 47.9%. White suspected the change is because players have gotten used to the feel of the allegedly redesigned basketballs.
Associate commissioner Dan Butterly said the Mountain West will play its conference tournament with Nike basketballs. The eventual champion will earn an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, where games are played with basketballs made by Wilson.