KenPom Projections

M

MugCostanza

Well-known member
The KenPom preseason projections just dropped and here's how he sees SJU and the BE this season:

Villanova (20th overall)
Creighton (22)
Yukon (27)
SJU (37)
Xavier (38)
SHU (48)
Prov (57)
Marq (76)
DePaul (88)
Georgetown (102)
Butler (130)

Has SJU finishing 20-10 overall (missing the 2nd game of the Empire Classic) and 12-8 in the Big East. He seems to be very slightly higher on this team than others but is pretty down on the rest of the teams in the league and the conference as a whole.

Last year SJU finished 4 spots worse than their preseason projection, the year before it was a 2 spot difference. Pretty good.
 
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The two teams that I have seen being all over the board as far as projections are Marquette and Buutler. Personally, I think both finish at the bottom of the league (for different reasons), but I’ve seen each predicted to finish as high as 5th or 6th, which are pretty big swings.

The one team that I think could be a lot better than people are predicting is Georgetown. They have size and a lot more talent than they did last year. We all know that it’s hard to gel when there are many new faces, but they’re going to pull off some “upsets” this year; let’s just hope it’s not against our Johnnies!!
 
I think one thing our KenPom projections show is that for how good this team may be, our out out of conference schedule is a huge error and really weak. He predicts us to be favored in every ooc game we play- even the Syracuse game not listed. Somehow they created a non-conference schedule with no upside, potentially 0 tier 1 opportunities, and zero opportunity to exceed expectations. I like Anderson and Cragg, but in the era of moneyball, we are sac bunting all over the place with this nonsense.
 
adavis1 said:
I think one thing our KenPom projections show is that for how good this team may be, our out out of conference schedule is a huge error and really weak. He predicts us to be favored in every ooc game we play- even the Syracuse game not listed. Somehow they created a non-conference schedule with no upside, potentially 0 tier 1 opportunities, and zero opportunity to exceed expectations. I like Anderson and Cragg, but in the era of moneyball, we are sac bunting all over the place with this nonsense.
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He has us favored on the road vs Iowa st and neutral vs Florida st?
 
I know he has some weird rule he uses when making the record projections, but he’s got us projected winning 24 games and 14 in the BE. Not gonna happen. But it is always a good sign to be respected by his ratings.
 
Amaseinyourface said:
I know he has some weird rule he uses when making the record projections, but he’s got us projected winning 24 games and 14 in the BE. Not gonna happen. But it is always a good sign to be respected by his ratings.
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Yeah essentially we're favored in 24 games and 14 in the BE but a number of them are close games so he doesn't actually expect us to win all those games.

It's like if a team had 10 games and was 51% to win each of the 10 games, they'd still be projected to go 5-5 or 6-4 despite being favored in all 10 games
 
SJ and Seton Hall are the most intriguing teams to me in the BE. SJ may have its best roster in years but can they replace what Champs brought to the game. Seton has a ton of transfers who were all contributors at their previous schools and a new coach in Shaheen. Both teams will be exciting.
 
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