Mug Costanza
Member
KenPom dropped his preseason rankings as well as game-by-game and full record predictions today. His system has SJU ranked as the 51st team in the country and 5th in the Big East, though he has four Big East teams ranked between 50th and 55th overall (Seton Hall 50th, Creighton 53rd, Butler 55th). He projects us to go 20-11 overall and 10-10 in the Big East which would likely have us squarely on the bubble going into the Big East Tournament. For reference, last year we entered the season ranked 71st in his rankings and finished 69th.
For this season his system has us as 49th in offensive efficiency and 54th in defensive efficiency. Last year we finished 42nd offensively and 112th defensively so he's projected a small step back offensively but a major leap forward defensively. We're projected to the 13th fastest pace in all of college basketball. Last year we finished 10th.
Notable Opponent Rankings and Predictions:
- Indiana is the 31st overall team in his rankings and he projects us to lose that game 79-73 with a 30% chance of winning.
- Kansas is the 3rd overall team and we are projected to lose that game 82-75 with a 26% chance of winning.
- We are projected to win the rest of our conference games by double figures with none having a winning % chance under 80%. He actually has Colgate as a tougher opponent than Pittsburgh giving us an 83% chance of beating Colgate and 87% chance of beating Pitt.
- Our season opening opponent Mississippi Valley State is ranked 358th aka dead last of all D1 teams and we have a 99.996% chance of winning that game according to KP. The score projection for that game is 100-57.
- In conference play there are three games were we have a projected chance of winning < 30% (@Yukon, @Villanova, @Xavier) and four games where our projected chance of winning is > 70% (vMarquette, vDePaul, v GTown, v Providence).
Obviously this doesn't mean all that much when the games start but it is interesting considering how close we finished to his initial projection last season and how respected his system is all over College Basketball. Sportsbooks essentially make their point spreads straight from his projections.
For this season his system has us as 49th in offensive efficiency and 54th in defensive efficiency. Last year we finished 42nd offensively and 112th defensively so he's projected a small step back offensively but a major leap forward defensively. We're projected to the 13th fastest pace in all of college basketball. Last year we finished 10th.
Notable Opponent Rankings and Predictions:
- Indiana is the 31st overall team in his rankings and he projects us to lose that game 79-73 with a 30% chance of winning.
- Kansas is the 3rd overall team and we are projected to lose that game 82-75 with a 26% chance of winning.
- We are projected to win the rest of our conference games by double figures with none having a winning % chance under 80%. He actually has Colgate as a tougher opponent than Pittsburgh giving us an 83% chance of beating Colgate and 87% chance of beating Pitt.
- Our season opening opponent Mississippi Valley State is ranked 358th aka dead last of all D1 teams and we have a 99.996% chance of winning that game according to KP. The score projection for that game is 100-57.
- In conference play there are three games were we have a projected chance of winning < 30% (@Yukon, @Villanova, @Xavier) and four games where our projected chance of winning is > 70% (vMarquette, vDePaul, v GTown, v Providence).
Obviously this doesn't mean all that much when the games start but it is interesting considering how close we finished to his initial projection last season and how respected his system is all over College Basketball. Sportsbooks essentially make their point spreads straight from his projections.
