Wednesday’s Winners:
By Seth Davis / The ATHLETIC
The further I get from that magical .500 mark ATS on the season, the more it becomes obvious: I am due. Seriously. Gonna break out any day now. You can trust me. So I’ve got 10 surefire picks for ya on the night’s biggest games. Good thing these are only for entertainment purposes! Are you not entertained?
Auburn (-4) at Texas A&M, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU. I’m tempted to go with the home dog here, but I just don’t think Texas A&M is good, and Auburn has played poorly enough that it needs to come out with the proper competitive edge. The Aggies finally got a decent win by one point at Alabama last Saturday, but they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. The danger is that Auburn might get caught looking ahead to Saturday’s showdown with Kentucky, but I like the way the Tigers rebounded from their disappointing loss at Ole Miss by thrashing Georgia by 15 points over the weekend. This team is good, but not nearly good enough to overlook any opponent. The pick: Auburn
Kansas State at Oklahoma (-6½), 7 p.m., ESPN2. I’m a big believer in Lon Kruger’s Sooners, but this is a lotta wood for a squad that has played several close games of late. That includes Saturday’s two-point win at home over a TCU squad that was playing without starting point guard Jaylen Fisher. Plus, Oklahoma is going up against a Kansas State squad that ranks fifth in the country in defensive efficiency, 315th in tempo, and just got back its leading scorer and rebounder, Dean Wade, from an injury. Wade’s return allowed the Wildcats to pull off a late comeback win at Iowa State last Saturday. The Sooners may pull this one out, but they’ll know they’ve been in a fight. The pick: Kansas State
Iowa State at Texas Tech (-5), 9 p.m., ESPNU. Lubbock is not a good place to go if you want to snap a two-game losing streak. We all know about the Red Raiders’ defensive prowess (first in the country in defensive efficiency and defensive field goal percentage), but they also have one of the country’s most dynamic offensive players in 6-6 sophomore Jarrett Culver (18.7 points). Senior guard Matt Mooney scored a season-high 22 points in Saturday’s win at Texas. Iowa State has the Big 12’s leading scorer in Marial Shayok (19.4 points), but it’s fair to say he will be defended better than he has all season. It’s critical for a team to get to the foul line if it wants to win a tough road game like this, but Iowa State ranks ninth in the Big 12 in offensive free throw rate. The pick: Texas Tech
Houston (-1) at SMU, 9 p.m., ESPNNews. Now here’s a home dog that is ready to bark. Though Houston has shown it can win on the road (BYU and Oklahoma State), the Cougars took their first loss of the season a week ago at Temple. I think they’ll take another one against a Mustangs squad that features an excellent backcourt in 6-foot senior Jahmal McMurray, who ranks fourth in the American in scoring at 18.9 points per game (on 41.5 percent 3-point shooting), and 6-3 junior Jimmy Whitt, who is sixth in the league in assists (4.2) and rebounds (6.9). The pick: SMU
Creighton at St. John’s (-3), 6:30 p.m., FS1. St. John’s continues to list Shamorie Ponds as day to day – aren’t we all? – but I’m going to take a flyer and assume he’s going to play. Even if he doesn’t, I think the Johnnies can win. Creighton has lost its last three games and is 1-3 on the road. That’s what happens when a team is susceptible on defense (177th nationally in efficiency) and doesn’t attack the offensive glass (258th in offensive rebound percentage). The pick: St. John’s
Boston College at Louisville (-12), 7 p.m., ACC Network. Louisville’s loss at Pitt raised a lot of doubts – until Pitt pushed N.C. State to the wire on the road and then knocked off Florida State at home. So maybe the Panthers are just that good, and so is Louisville. I’m not sure I can say the same about a Boston College team that has lost four straight (including at home to Hartford in overtime) and ranks last in the ACC in 3-point percentage (30.3). The pick: Louisville
Dayton at VCU (-4½), 8 p.m., CBS Sports Network. The Atlantic 10 is producing some exciting basketball these days. VCU had a four-game win streak snapped last Saturday when it blew a 12-point second half lead at Davidson. The Rams are a horrid shooting team (336th in the country in 3-point percentage), but they can really guard (sixth in defensive efficiency). Dayton leads the league in field goal shooting (50.8), but it amassed its 3-0 record against three of the A-10’s worst teams in Richmond, George Washington and UMass, and it does not do a good job of hitting the offensive glass. That will spell trouble in a frenzied road environment like the Siegel Center. The pick: VCU
Butler (-2½) at DePaul, 8:30 p.m., FS1. Lo and behold, but DePaul is riding a two-game win streak. Sure, that included a road win against a Red Storm team that didn’t have Ponds, but the Blue Demons also knocked off a good Seton Hall team at home thanks to five 3-pointers from 6-6 senior guard Max Strus, who ranks fifth in the Big East in scoring at 18.4 points per game. Butler has lost four times in its last five games, and it has suffered one-point road losses in each of its last two. I usually like to pick desperate home teams, but in this case we’ve got a desperate road team. If Butler can’t dig deep and find a way to win this one, its season is pretty much cooked. The pick: Butler
Alabama at Missouri (-1), 9 p.m., SEC Network. Jeremiah Tilmon is a really good player … when he’s in the game. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case much lately as Missouri’s 6-10 sophomore forward has needed just 12, nine and 13 minutes, respectively, to foul out of his last three games. Moreover, taking care of the ball continues to be a problem as the Tigers rank 292nd in the country in turnover percentage. On the other hand, Alabama seems to be treating defense like it’s optional, ranking last in the SEC in points allowed (73.3), defensive field goal percentage (44.4) and steals (4.3). Hard to feel confident either way here, so I’ll take the home team. The pick: Missouri
Minnesota (-1½) at Illinois, 9 p.m., Big Ten Network. I’m a little confused why this line is so small because there is no logical reason to believe the Illini will win. They’ve won four games all season – albeit against a difficult schedule – and their current five-game losing streak includes a home loss to Florida Atlantic. Minnesota suffered a tough home loss to Maryland last week, but the Gophers have lost just three games all season, and they won at Wisconsin on Jan. 3. They play a strong, tough, physical style of basketball that translates well to the road. The pick: Minnesota
Last time: 4-6
Season record: 48-61-1
