There are so many reasons why our current tournament status is murky. First and foremost is what criteria will the committee focus the most on.
On the minus side: We have no big non-conference wins., no road games at all outside of conference, no significant neutral court wins, bad losses to Depaul and Penn State plus going 0-2 to conference rival Xavier and of course the dreaded 1-7 against top fifty competition .
On the positive side: We are playing very well right now. Eleven wins in our last fourteen games, very competitive in five losses against nationally ranked teams and playing much better right now than other tournament candidates from our conference Georgetown, Marquette, Providence and Xavier.
We still have work to do. I believe two wins and we are in but beat Providence and lose to Villanova and the apples versus oranges debate will begin. Again if we lose to Villanova in overtime as opposed to losing by fifteen will that influence the committee or not? Below is a writeup from Basketballpredictions/blogspot from today that says right now we are one of thirteen bubble teams playing for eight spots. What do you think? Read their analysis below.
Sunday, March 09, 2014
Bubble Watch Heading Into March 9th
The story of Saturday for the bubble was the fact that it's thinning out. A few teams moved away from the bubble with big wins (Baylor and Oregon the most prominent) while several others teams fell off the bubble with losses (Clemson, Arkansas and Utah). The effect is that the bubble is now just 13 teams for 8 spots.
Eastern Kentucky earned the second auto bid into the Tournament after upsetting Murray State and Belmont on consecutive nights. I also decided that New Mexico has to move in as a Tournament lock even with the loss. A competitive loss at San Diego State won't hurt their resume, and enough teams around them in the S-Curve lost. In total that gives us now 25 Tournament bids locked up with 43 still to be earned over the next 8 days.
Teams that move up a group are colored green while teams that drop a group are colored red. Here is how the bubble stands as we head into March 9th:
Tournament locks (25 teams):
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Harvard, Wichita State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Eastern Kentucky, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, Kentucky
Automatic bids yet to be awarded (30, of which 21 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
AAC, America East, ACC, Atlantic Sun, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big South, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, Colonial, CUSA, Horizon, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MVC, MWC, NEC, Pac-12, Patriot, SEC, SoCon, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WCC, WAC
Teams that look safe (9):
Memphis, SMU, UMass, Saint Louis, VCU, Ohio State, Baylor, Kansas State, Oregon
Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (8):
Pittsburgh, George Washington, Saint Joseph's, Iowa, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Colorado, Gonzaga
The Bubble (13 teams for 8 bids):
Florida State, Dayton, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Xavier, Minnesota, Nebraska, Toledo, California, Stanford, Tennessee, BYU
Best of the rest (12):
Clemson, Marquette, Indiana, West Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Green Bay, Stephen F Austin, North Dakota State, Utah, Arkansas, Georgia
Long shots (13):
Maryland, NC State, Illinois, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Ohio, Indiana State, Boise State, UNLV, LSU, Mississippi, Missouri, Saint Mary's
[/Editor's note at 12:45 PM on March 9th: I intended to drop Iowa a category and that edit somehow did save. I have now fixed that mistake.]
On the minus side: We have no big non-conference wins., no road games at all outside of conference, no significant neutral court wins, bad losses to Depaul and Penn State plus going 0-2 to conference rival Xavier and of course the dreaded 1-7 against top fifty competition .
On the positive side: We are playing very well right now. Eleven wins in our last fourteen games, very competitive in five losses against nationally ranked teams and playing much better right now than other tournament candidates from our conference Georgetown, Marquette, Providence and Xavier.
We still have work to do. I believe two wins and we are in but beat Providence and lose to Villanova and the apples versus oranges debate will begin. Again if we lose to Villanova in overtime as opposed to losing by fifteen will that influence the committee or not? Below is a writeup from Basketballpredictions/blogspot from today that says right now we are one of thirteen bubble teams playing for eight spots. What do you think? Read their analysis below.
Sunday, March 09, 2014
Bubble Watch Heading Into March 9th
The story of Saturday for the bubble was the fact that it's thinning out. A few teams moved away from the bubble with big wins (Baylor and Oregon the most prominent) while several others teams fell off the bubble with losses (Clemson, Arkansas and Utah). The effect is that the bubble is now just 13 teams for 8 spots.
Eastern Kentucky earned the second auto bid into the Tournament after upsetting Murray State and Belmont on consecutive nights. I also decided that New Mexico has to move in as a Tournament lock even with the loss. A competitive loss at San Diego State won't hurt their resume, and enough teams around them in the S-Curve lost. In total that gives us now 25 Tournament bids locked up with 43 still to be earned over the next 8 days.
Teams that move up a group are colored green while teams that drop a group are colored red. Here is how the bubble stands as we head into March 9th:
Tournament locks (25 teams):
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Harvard, Wichita State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Eastern Kentucky, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, Kentucky
Automatic bids yet to be awarded (30, of which 21 are not projected to be won by teams currently locked into the Tournament):
AAC, America East, ACC, Atlantic Sun, A-10, Big East, Big Sky, Big South, Big Ten, Big 12, Big West, Colonial, CUSA, Horizon, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MVC, MWC, NEC, Pac-12, Patriot, SEC, SoCon, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WCC, WAC
Teams that look safe (9):
Memphis, SMU, UMass, Saint Louis, VCU, Ohio State, Baylor, Kansas State, Oregon
Teams definitely in the Tournament... for now (8):
Pittsburgh, George Washington, Saint Joseph's, Iowa, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Colorado, Gonzaga
The Bubble (13 teams for 8 bids):
Florida State, Dayton, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Xavier, Minnesota, Nebraska, Toledo, California, Stanford, Tennessee, BYU
Best of the rest (12):
Clemson, Marquette, Indiana, West Virginia, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Green Bay, Stephen F Austin, North Dakota State, Utah, Arkansas, Georgia
Long shots (13):
Maryland, NC State, Illinois, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Ohio, Indiana State, Boise State, UNLV, LSU, Mississippi, Missouri, Saint Mary's
[/Editor's note at 12:45 PM on March 9th: I intended to drop Iowa a category and that edit somehow did save. I have now fixed that mistake.]
