College Basketball Experts Blog
Virginia leads surprise team candidates
May, 2, 2013
May 2
9:31
AM ET
By Seth Greenberg
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Geoff Burke/USA TODAY SportsJoe Harris, an All-ACC guard, averaged 16.3 points and 4.0 rebounds a game last season.
Every season, a few teams emerge and make noise in the NCAA tournament. Most times, these teams laid a foundation in the previous season like the Miami Hurricanes of a season ago. Others, in contrast, add a missing piece, like Oklahoma State did with freshman guard Marcus Smart.
Which teams are poised to make a breakthrough in 2013-14? For me, it looks to be Virginia, LSU, Tennessee, St. John's and Arizona State. Although each team still has question marks, I feel they all have the talent and intangibles to emerge, and I'm confident that they will do well this season.
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Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia has the potential to be one of the elite teams in the country. It has a veteran squad that is invested in winning. This is even more important in coach Tony Bennett's motion offense and "pack line" defensive system. It takes time to play on instinct and react in both. The Cavaliers' roles are well-defined, and the personnel fit the system well. The players take care of the ball, have shot discipline and are tough to score against.
The Cavaliers return one of the toughest and best players in the ACC in Joe Harris, who averaged 16.3 points per game while shooting 43 percent from the 3-point line. Harris is a physical, attacking guard who got to the line 150 times last season. Bennett does a great job of moving him in the action in his mover-blocker and 3-man triangle motion, as well as sets.
Harris is complemented by a skilled frontcourt. Akil Mitchell is a versatile forward who can face up and put it on the floor as well as play in the paint. Mitchell is an active rebounder and can defend multiple positions. Justin Anderson gives the Cavs an elite athlete and a lockdown defender. Improved offensively, he can attack the basket off the bounce and does a great job of rebounding his position. Mike Tobey, a 7-footer, has a chance to be a difference-maker for Virginia. He is an intriguing talent who possesses great hands and a feel for the game. A good summer in the weight room will be essential for him to develop into an elite ACC post player.
The key for the Cavs will be finding a consistent replacement for point guard Jontel Evans. He was the heartbeat of Virginia defensively, as well as an attacking guard in short-clock situations. I envision Malcolm Brogdon filling that role. Although not overly quick, Brogden has the intangibles and the toughness Bennett looks for in a point guard. Freshman point guard London Perrantes has a chance to give the Cavaliers quality backup minutes. He is a solid ball handler and decision-maker and has the toughness to play in the Virginia system.
This is a deep Virginia roster with skilled sharpshooting wing forwards in 6-7 Paul Jesperson and 6-8 Evan Nolte, as well as ultra-athletic power forward Darion Atkins. Jesperson and Nolte can play as stretch 4s as well as some at the small forward. Atkins has a knack for blocking shots and is tough to keep off the glass.
If the Cavaliers get consistent point guard play, I feel they will finish in the top four in the ACC and be a dangerous team in the NCAA tournament.
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LSU Tigers
LSU is a team that looks to have momentum on its side. Johnny Jones, a former LSU guard and assistant, did an excellent job in his first season as head coach of the Tigers. He led them to 19 wins, nine of which came in the SEC. Their victories against Missouri, Arkansas and Alabama sent a message that these were no paper Tigers but a young and talented team that is athletic enough to compete within the conference.
Johnny O'Bryant is the anchor up front for LSU. He is a tough matchup at 6-9 and 250 pounds. He rebounds the ball, has a solid low-post game, can play out of a double-team, can knock down a 15-footer and has the toughness needed to bang with the best frontcourt players in the country. He can run the floor and averages almost three offensive rebounds a game. At the end of the season, he was playing as well as any big in the SEC.
O'Bryant is surrounded by three double-figure scorers in Anthony Hickey, Andre Stringer and Shavon Coleman. Hickey and Stringer, although undersized, make up an efficient backcourt. Hickey, at 5-11, 182 pounds is a physical guard who has a good feel for the game, can get in the lane and is as good an on-ball defender as there is in the SEC. He averaged almost three steals per game, and 5-9 Stringer is a 40 percent 3-point shooter who explodes into his jump shot. Coleman, at 6-5, is an active, athletic and hard-playing undersized forward who has a knack for getting to the offensive glass. He's capable of making a 3-pointer and can fly around on the defensive end.
Malik Morgan is key coming off the bench. He is a shot-maker who will add depth to the backcourt.
The focal point of the Tigers' top-10-ranked freshman class is McDonald's All American Jarrell Martin. He's a jump-shooter who is tough to keep off the glass. His ability to score and rebound will complement O'Bryant. Top 100 power forward Jordan Mickey is a 6-8 pogo stick who has unbelievable upside. He finished his high school career looking as if he was going to be an impact SEC forward.
If the backcourt holds up and the Tigers make enough shots to stop teams from shrinking the court on O'Bryant, this team has the potential to go to the Sweet 16.
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Tennessee Volunteers
In his third season, Cuonzo Martin has a mature and athletic group poised to challenge the elite teams in the SEC. This group now understands the physical style of basketball Martin expects from the Volunteers. Few teams in the country have the combination of physicality, strength, athleticism and skill. If Jeronne Maymon gets another season of eligibility and is able to play to the level he played before his injury, this will be an Elite Eight team.
The Vols are led in scoring by rangy wing Jordan McRae. McRae, who averaged 15.7 points a game, is wiry strong, is explosive off the bounce and can create a shot whenever he wants. He does a nice job of reading screens in the Tennessee motion offense. He is joined in the backcourt by senior Trae Golden. Although not a pure point guard, he can play the 1, but he must improve his decision-making and carry himself as a winning player. Golden will be pushed by freshman Darius Thompson. A 6-4 son of a coach, Thompson has a great feel for the game and can put great pressure on the ball.
Josh Richardson is the ultimate blend player, averaging 30 minutes a game as a sophomore. He brings intangibles and is a lockdown defender who can defend multiple positions. If he can shoot the ball more consistently, he'll take his game to another level as a junior.
Jarnell Stokes is an absolute beast up front. He gets a rebound every three minutes and does an excellent job of carving out space in the paint. Stokes has great hands and, when committed to playing to his strengths, is the best returning big man in the SEC and one of the best in the country.
If healthy, Maymon will join Stokes up front. He has excellent leadership skills and is the ultimate matchup nightmare: too strong for small forwards and too quick for power forwards. He can shoot it as well as attack off the bounce. Together, Maymon and Stokes will be one of the best rebounding and most physical frontcourts in the country. Derek Reese will come off the bench to give the Vols another skilled forward. He has an excellent feel for the game and shoots the ball with range.
Tennessee needs quality minutes out of top-50 recruit Robert Hubbs as well as 6-10 junior college post Rawane Ndiaye. At 6-5, Hubbs is an incredible athlete who can score. Although not physically strong, he has the skill set and athletic ability to contribute as a freshman. Ndiaye, at 6-10 and 270 pounds, will be needed to provide quality backup minutes and be a physical defender and screener. If he is able to fulfill that role, he would be the missing piece of the puzzle for the Vols.
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St. John's Red Storm
Steve Lavin has the Storm poised to take the next step as the new era of Big East basketball is about to begin. This is as deep, long and athletic a group as there is in the new league. Last season, St. John's took a step forward by winning 17 games and advancing to the NIT despite relying on a roster of underclassman players. The addition of 6-9 forward Orlando Sanchez -- a 2011 junior college All-American who was granted a waiver and a season of eligibility by the NCAA -- and top-25 point guard Rysheed Jordan to a talented group of returners will put the Storm in position to not only make the NCAA tournament but advance.
SJU will be led by sophomore Jakarr Sampson, a rangy and athletic 6-8 forward with a knack for scoring. He is joined up front by shot-blocking maven Chris Obekpa, who averaged 4.0 blocks and 6.2 rebounds in 26 minutes of play. God'sgift Achiuwa gives Lavin a serviceable physical post to complement Sanchez, Sampson and Obekpa.
On the wing, Amir Garrett is an active multipositional player and Sir'Dominic Pointer is physically mature and has the versatility to play any perimeter spot. Sanchez can swing to the small forward and could be the jump-shooter Lavin has been missing.
The Storm struggled from the field last season. The key for their backcourt is to improve the field goal and 3-point shooting (they shot just 41 percent and 22 percent, respectively, last season). They must show better shot discipline and play with a greater purpose. If suspended guard D'Angelo Harrison returns and buys in to being a winning player and a good teammate, this backcourt could be tough to contain.
Phil Greene is a scoring guard who makes plays off the bounce, and Jamal Branch -- despite struggling shooting the ball -- showed the potential to be a winning guard. Freshman Jordan is the real deal. A "Philly" point guard, he has a feel for the game. He plays with pace and maturity. All of this together will make the Storm hard to beat come March.
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Arizona State Sun Devils
After winning 22 games and advancing to the second round of the NIT, Arizona State is poised to have a breakthrough season in 2013-14. Herb Sendek's Sun Devils are led by an exceptional inside-outside combination. Jahii Carson is one of the most explosive guards in the country, and 7-2 Jordan Bachynski is in the same category for shot-blockers.
ASU is one of the fastest-playing teams in the West. The Sun Devils averaged 72 points per game last season, and I expect them to play even faster next season. Coach Sendek has adjusted his style of play to fit Carson's dynamic skill set. Carson is explosive in the open court, has great vision, can finish at the rim and is as good a ball-screen guard as there is returning in college basketball. Carson's ability to get in the lane puts great pressure on the defense and frees up the team's 3-point shooters.
Joining Carson in the backcourt is Evan Gordon, a 6-foot guard who averaged 10 points a game last season. I expect him to be one of the better shooting guards in the Pac-12. Redshirt freshman Calaen Robinson has the potential to contribute.
Up front, Bachynski has developed into one of the most impactful frontcourt players in the West. He has improved offensively, but he truly excels on the defensive end, where he blocks 3.4 shots per game. His ability to protect the basket is key for Arizona State. Eric Jacobsen, a 6-9 sophomore forward, will give Sendek a big physical body in the post.
Jonathan Gilling is a stretch 4 who made 84 3s and shot 37 percent from beyond the arc. He is effective in the trail spot, in drag ball screens, spacing the court and playing off of Carson's penetration. Gilling must be defended well outside the 3-point line, which gives Carson space to play.
The Sun Devils have two transfers they expect to contribute: Brandan Kearney from Michigan State and Richie Edwards from Valparaiso. Both are skilled and can make shots, fitting perfectly into the Sun Devils' system.
Fear the Fork! These Sun Devils are for real. I expect them to make the NCAA tournament, then win a game or more once they get there. In the postseason, the game starts with the guards, and ASU might have the best point guard in the country this season in Carson.
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Virginia leads surprise team candidates
May, 2, 2013
May 2
9:31
AM ET
By Seth Greenberg
Recommend3
Tweet2
Comments20
Geoff Burke/USA TODAY SportsJoe Harris, an All-ACC guard, averaged 16.3 points and 4.0 rebounds a game last season.
Every season, a few teams emerge and make noise in the NCAA tournament. Most times, these teams laid a foundation in the previous season like the Miami Hurricanes of a season ago. Others, in contrast, add a missing piece, like Oklahoma State did with freshman guard Marcus Smart.
Which teams are poised to make a breakthrough in 2013-14? For me, it looks to be Virginia, LSU, Tennessee, St. John's and Arizona State. Although each team still has question marks, I feel they all have the talent and intangibles to emerge, and I'm confident that they will do well this season.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia has the potential to be one of the elite teams in the country. It has a veteran squad that is invested in winning. This is even more important in coach Tony Bennett's motion offense and "pack line" defensive system. It takes time to play on instinct and react in both. The Cavaliers' roles are well-defined, and the personnel fit the system well. The players take care of the ball, have shot discipline and are tough to score against.
The Cavaliers return one of the toughest and best players in the ACC in Joe Harris, who averaged 16.3 points per game while shooting 43 percent from the 3-point line. Harris is a physical, attacking guard who got to the line 150 times last season. Bennett does a great job of moving him in the action in his mover-blocker and 3-man triangle motion, as well as sets.
Harris is complemented by a skilled frontcourt. Akil Mitchell is a versatile forward who can face up and put it on the floor as well as play in the paint. Mitchell is an active rebounder and can defend multiple positions. Justin Anderson gives the Cavs an elite athlete and a lockdown defender. Improved offensively, he can attack the basket off the bounce and does a great job of rebounding his position. Mike Tobey, a 7-footer, has a chance to be a difference-maker for Virginia. He is an intriguing talent who possesses great hands and a feel for the game. A good summer in the weight room will be essential for him to develop into an elite ACC post player.
The key for the Cavs will be finding a consistent replacement for point guard Jontel Evans. He was the heartbeat of Virginia defensively, as well as an attacking guard in short-clock situations. I envision Malcolm Brogdon filling that role. Although not overly quick, Brogden has the intangibles and the toughness Bennett looks for in a point guard. Freshman point guard London Perrantes has a chance to give the Cavaliers quality backup minutes. He is a solid ball handler and decision-maker and has the toughness to play in the Virginia system.
This is a deep Virginia roster with skilled sharpshooting wing forwards in 6-7 Paul Jesperson and 6-8 Evan Nolte, as well as ultra-athletic power forward Darion Atkins. Jesperson and Nolte can play as stretch 4s as well as some at the small forward. Atkins has a knack for blocking shots and is tough to keep off the glass.
If the Cavaliers get consistent point guard play, I feel they will finish in the top four in the ACC and be a dangerous team in the NCAA tournament.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LSU Tigers
LSU is a team that looks to have momentum on its side. Johnny Jones, a former LSU guard and assistant, did an excellent job in his first season as head coach of the Tigers. He led them to 19 wins, nine of which came in the SEC. Their victories against Missouri, Arkansas and Alabama sent a message that these were no paper Tigers but a young and talented team that is athletic enough to compete within the conference.
Johnny O'Bryant is the anchor up front for LSU. He is a tough matchup at 6-9 and 250 pounds. He rebounds the ball, has a solid low-post game, can play out of a double-team, can knock down a 15-footer and has the toughness needed to bang with the best frontcourt players in the country. He can run the floor and averages almost three offensive rebounds a game. At the end of the season, he was playing as well as any big in the SEC.
O'Bryant is surrounded by three double-figure scorers in Anthony Hickey, Andre Stringer and Shavon Coleman. Hickey and Stringer, although undersized, make up an efficient backcourt. Hickey, at 5-11, 182 pounds is a physical guard who has a good feel for the game, can get in the lane and is as good an on-ball defender as there is in the SEC. He averaged almost three steals per game, and 5-9 Stringer is a 40 percent 3-point shooter who explodes into his jump shot. Coleman, at 6-5, is an active, athletic and hard-playing undersized forward who has a knack for getting to the offensive glass. He's capable of making a 3-pointer and can fly around on the defensive end.
Malik Morgan is key coming off the bench. He is a shot-maker who will add depth to the backcourt.
The focal point of the Tigers' top-10-ranked freshman class is McDonald's All American Jarrell Martin. He's a jump-shooter who is tough to keep off the glass. His ability to score and rebound will complement O'Bryant. Top 100 power forward Jordan Mickey is a 6-8 pogo stick who has unbelievable upside. He finished his high school career looking as if he was going to be an impact SEC forward.
If the backcourt holds up and the Tigers make enough shots to stop teams from shrinking the court on O'Bryant, this team has the potential to go to the Sweet 16.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tennessee Volunteers
In his third season, Cuonzo Martin has a mature and athletic group poised to challenge the elite teams in the SEC. This group now understands the physical style of basketball Martin expects from the Volunteers. Few teams in the country have the combination of physicality, strength, athleticism and skill. If Jeronne Maymon gets another season of eligibility and is able to play to the level he played before his injury, this will be an Elite Eight team.
The Vols are led in scoring by rangy wing Jordan McRae. McRae, who averaged 15.7 points a game, is wiry strong, is explosive off the bounce and can create a shot whenever he wants. He does a nice job of reading screens in the Tennessee motion offense. He is joined in the backcourt by senior Trae Golden. Although not a pure point guard, he can play the 1, but he must improve his decision-making and carry himself as a winning player. Golden will be pushed by freshman Darius Thompson. A 6-4 son of a coach, Thompson has a great feel for the game and can put great pressure on the ball.
Josh Richardson is the ultimate blend player, averaging 30 minutes a game as a sophomore. He brings intangibles and is a lockdown defender who can defend multiple positions. If he can shoot the ball more consistently, he'll take his game to another level as a junior.
Jarnell Stokes is an absolute beast up front. He gets a rebound every three minutes and does an excellent job of carving out space in the paint. Stokes has great hands and, when committed to playing to his strengths, is the best returning big man in the SEC and one of the best in the country.
If healthy, Maymon will join Stokes up front. He has excellent leadership skills and is the ultimate matchup nightmare: too strong for small forwards and too quick for power forwards. He can shoot it as well as attack off the bounce. Together, Maymon and Stokes will be one of the best rebounding and most physical frontcourts in the country. Derek Reese will come off the bench to give the Vols another skilled forward. He has an excellent feel for the game and shoots the ball with range.
Tennessee needs quality minutes out of top-50 recruit Robert Hubbs as well as 6-10 junior college post Rawane Ndiaye. At 6-5, Hubbs is an incredible athlete who can score. Although not physically strong, he has the skill set and athletic ability to contribute as a freshman. Ndiaye, at 6-10 and 270 pounds, will be needed to provide quality backup minutes and be a physical defender and screener. If he is able to fulfill that role, he would be the missing piece of the puzzle for the Vols.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
St. John's Red Storm
Steve Lavin has the Storm poised to take the next step as the new era of Big East basketball is about to begin. This is as deep, long and athletic a group as there is in the new league. Last season, St. John's took a step forward by winning 17 games and advancing to the NIT despite relying on a roster of underclassman players. The addition of 6-9 forward Orlando Sanchez -- a 2011 junior college All-American who was granted a waiver and a season of eligibility by the NCAA -- and top-25 point guard Rysheed Jordan to a talented group of returners will put the Storm in position to not only make the NCAA tournament but advance.
SJU will be led by sophomore Jakarr Sampson, a rangy and athletic 6-8 forward with a knack for scoring. He is joined up front by shot-blocking maven Chris Obekpa, who averaged 4.0 blocks and 6.2 rebounds in 26 minutes of play. God'sgift Achiuwa gives Lavin a serviceable physical post to complement Sanchez, Sampson and Obekpa.
On the wing, Amir Garrett is an active multipositional player and Sir'Dominic Pointer is physically mature and has the versatility to play any perimeter spot. Sanchez can swing to the small forward and could be the jump-shooter Lavin has been missing.
The Storm struggled from the field last season. The key for their backcourt is to improve the field goal and 3-point shooting (they shot just 41 percent and 22 percent, respectively, last season). They must show better shot discipline and play with a greater purpose. If suspended guard D'Angelo Harrison returns and buys in to being a winning player and a good teammate, this backcourt could be tough to contain.
Phil Greene is a scoring guard who makes plays off the bounce, and Jamal Branch -- despite struggling shooting the ball -- showed the potential to be a winning guard. Freshman Jordan is the real deal. A "Philly" point guard, he has a feel for the game. He plays with pace and maturity. All of this together will make the Storm hard to beat come March.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Arizona State Sun Devils
After winning 22 games and advancing to the second round of the NIT, Arizona State is poised to have a breakthrough season in 2013-14. Herb Sendek's Sun Devils are led by an exceptional inside-outside combination. Jahii Carson is one of the most explosive guards in the country, and 7-2 Jordan Bachynski is in the same category for shot-blockers.
ASU is one of the fastest-playing teams in the West. The Sun Devils averaged 72 points per game last season, and I expect them to play even faster next season. Coach Sendek has adjusted his style of play to fit Carson's dynamic skill set. Carson is explosive in the open court, has great vision, can finish at the rim and is as good a ball-screen guard as there is returning in college basketball. Carson's ability to get in the lane puts great pressure on the defense and frees up the team's 3-point shooters.
Joining Carson in the backcourt is Evan Gordon, a 6-foot guard who averaged 10 points a game last season. I expect him to be one of the better shooting guards in the Pac-12. Redshirt freshman Calaen Robinson has the potential to contribute.
Up front, Bachynski has developed into one of the most impactful frontcourt players in the West. He has improved offensively, but he truly excels on the defensive end, where he blocks 3.4 shots per game. His ability to protect the basket is key for Arizona State. Eric Jacobsen, a 6-9 sophomore forward, will give Sendek a big physical body in the post.
Jonathan Gilling is a stretch 4 who made 84 3s and shot 37 percent from beyond the arc. He is effective in the trail spot, in drag ball screens, spacing the court and playing off of Carson's penetration. Gilling must be defended well outside the 3-point line, which gives Carson space to play.
The Sun Devils have two transfers they expect to contribute: Brandan Kearney from Michigan State and Richie Edwards from Valparaiso. Both are skilled and can make shots, fitting perfectly into the Sun Devils' system.
Fear the Fork! These Sun Devils are for real. I expect them to make the NCAA tournament, then win a game or more once they get there. In the postseason, the game starts with the guards, and ASU might have the best point guard in the country this season in Carson.
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