While we're waiting for last Johnnie schollie to be filled, does anyone have any thoughts on the Derby? I always love betting the race and had some nice wins between 1985 and 2010 but have been pretty miserable picking winners in last 10 years or so; blame it on the move to NC where horse racing doesn't exist lol. Haven't settled on a horse yet, initially leaning towards Epicenter & Smile Happy.
2022 Kentucky Derby
- Thread starter NCJohnnie
- Start date
Horses I'm considering are Epicenter, Mo Donegal and White Abarrio. Good luck.
I feel like Epicenter is the horse to beat but the horses coming out of the Santa Anita Derby are being overlooked a little. Taiba(12-1) has only raced twice but Justify only raced three times. Messier(8-1) lost to Taiba but could bounce back. Crown Pride the Japanese horse at 20-1 might be worth including in exotics. I definitely can understand those who like Mo Donegal and White Abbario who are both solid horses.
This is usually right in my wheelhouse but the Derby this year is pretty complicated.
I am leaning slightly towards Epicenter, but any of the six favorites (Epicenter, Messier, Taiba, Mo Donegal, White Abarrio or Zandon) would not be a big surprise. There are probably six others that would be a bit of a surprise but not a total shock (Smile Happy, Simplification, Cyberknife, Zozos, Charge It or Crown Pride). I personally don't think that much of the win chances of any of the other eight horses but a couple of them (Pioneer of Medina or Barber Road) could fill out the bottom of Tris or Supers.
The problem is that the track could be sloppy and Churchill Downs has historically produced some bizarre results when it gets wet.
That said, since the implementation of the qualifying points system for the Derby in 2012 the race has not produced the fast paced fractions that have set up some improbable come from behind longshot horses like Mine That Bird or Giacomo.
FYI on a separate note, Mike Repole bought a minority share of Mo Donegal about eight days ago. He has yet to have a horse run well in the Derby but buying into a contender less than two weeks before the race may not be a bad strategy.
I am leaning slightly towards Epicenter, but any of the six favorites (Epicenter, Messier, Taiba, Mo Donegal, White Abarrio or Zandon) would not be a big surprise. There are probably six others that would be a bit of a surprise but not a total shock (Smile Happy, Simplification, Cyberknife, Zozos, Charge It or Crown Pride). I personally don't think that much of the win chances of any of the other eight horses but a couple of them (Pioneer of Medina or Barber Road) could fill out the bottom of Tris or Supers.
The problem is that the track could be sloppy and Churchill Downs has historically produced some bizarre results when it gets wet.
That said, since the implementation of the qualifying points system for the Derby in 2012 the race has not produced the fast paced fractions that have set up some improbable come from behind longshot horses like Mine That Bird or Giacomo.
FYI on a separate note, Mike Repole bought a minority share of Mo Donegal about eight days ago. He has yet to have a horse run well in the Derby but buying into a contender less than two weeks before the race may not be a bad strategy.
Rangers playing game 3 tonight I'm going Messier but I'm putting money on Mo too
jerseyshorejohnny
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Mike Repole Talks Derby, Oaks, Uncle Mo, Kobe Bryant On Writers' Room
In arguably the most entertaining interview of the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland's 130-plus episode history, billionaire and high-profile owner/breeder Mike Repole sat down with Joe Bianca and Jon Green Tuesday as the Green Group Guest of the Week for a lively discussion that covered...
www.thoroughbreddailynews.com
That was an unbelievable ride!
NCJohnnie - I loved Epicenter in this race. I thought Zandon was going to get past him but Rich Strike just saved so much ground on the hot pace that Ghostzapper was talking about when Mine that Bird and Giacomo won. Disappointing but a great race.
NCJohnnie - I loved Epicenter in this race. I thought Zandon was going to get past him but Rich Strike just saved so much ground on the hot pace that Ghostzapper was talking about when Mine that Bird and Giacomo won. Disappointing but a great race.
Will be interesting to see who comes back to run in the Preakness. California (Baffert) horses were complete duds. Of course, winner will run and I would think Zandon & Mo Donegal will run. Race had to take a lot out of Epicenter, hope he gives Preakness a shot though.
NCJohnnie wrote: Will be interesting to see who comes back to run in the Preakness. California (Baffert) horses were complete duds. Of course, winner will run and I would think Zandon & Mo Donegal will run. Race had to take a lot out of Epicenter, hope he gives Preakness a shot though.
So the two foreign horses and their jockeys set an absurd pace that paved the way for a ridiculous closer to close from out of the clouds. I thought Epicenter was much the best and heroic in defeat.
I definitely do not see Mo Donegal running in the Preakness. Pletcher likes to give his horses more time between races and never runs back in the Preakness unless his horse wins the Derby and even then he moans about how he hates the short two-week turnaround. I am pretty confident Mo will be seen next in the Belmont. I am less positive about Zandon but think he will bypass the Preakness too. Chad has pointed Early Voting to the Preakness after skipping the Derby and I am guessing he will probably want to point Zandon for the Belmont instead.
Rich Strike will go the Preakness and it will be interesting to see how long his odds will be there. I personally thought he was the least likely winner in the field based on his form but he got a terrific ride, an absurd pace set up, and got the job done in an absolute shocker. I believe if it were not the Kentucky Derby where many non-racing bettors wager that he would have been double the 80 to 1 odds that he went off at. I found it somewhat ironic that Rich Strike was not even in the field and only got in off the AE list when Wayne Lukas scratched his Derby horse Ethereal Road Friday morning.
I am not sure if Epicenter will run back in the Preakness because he had a taxing race but if he goes he will likely be a short-price favorite.
So the two foreign horses and their jockeys set an absurd pace that paved the way for a ridiculous closer to close from out of the clouds. I thought Epicenter was much the best and heroic in defeat.
I definitely do not see Mo Donegal running in the Preakness. Pletcher likes to give his horses more time between races and never runs back in the Preakness unless his horse wins the Derby and even then he moans about how he hates the short two-week turnaround. I am pretty confident Mo will be seen next in the Belmont. I am less positive about Zandon but think he will bypass the Preakness too. Chad has pointed Early Voting to the Preakness after skipping the Derby and I am guessing he will probably want to point Zandon for the Belmont instead.
Rich Strike will go the Preakness and it will be interesting to see how long his odds will be there. I personally thought he was the least likely winner in the field based on his form but he got a terrific ride, an absurd pace set up, and got the job done in an absolute shocker. I believe if it were not the Kentucky Derby where many non-racing bettors wager that he would have been double the 80 to 1 odds that he went off at. I found it somewhat ironic that Rich Strike was not even in the field and only got in off the AE list when Wayne Lukas scratched his Derby horse Ethereal Road Friday morning.
I am not sure if Epicenter will run back in the Preakness because he had a taxing race but if he goes he will likely be a short-price favorite.
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