This is usually right in my wheelhouse but the Derby this year is pretty complicated.
I am leaning slightly towards Epicenter, but any of the six favorites (Epicenter, Messier, Taiba, Mo Donegal, White Abarrio or Zandon) would not be a big surprise. There are probably six others that would be a bit of a surprise but not a total shock (Smile Happy, Simplification, Cyberknife, Zozos, Charge It or Crown Pride). I personally don't think that much of the win chances of any of the other eight horses but a couple of them (Pioneer of Medina or Barber Road) could fill out the bottom of Tris or Supers.
The problem is that the track could be sloppy and Churchill Downs has historically produced some bizarre results when it gets wet.
That said, since the implementation of the qualifying points system for the Derby in 2012 the race has not produced the fast paced fractions that have set up some improbable come from behind longshot horses like Mine That Bird or Giacomo.
FYI on a separate note, Mike Repole bought a minority share of Mo Donegal about eight days ago. He has yet to have a horse run well in the Derby but buying into a contender less than two weeks before the race may not be a bad strategy.