2015 Athlon Preview

NYCRedmen

NYCRedmen

Well-known member
If you thought Lindy's preview was bad (only 2 Big East teams predicted to make NCAA), the Athlon preview is not much better. I just read thru my copy and once again the Big East is not getting a ton of love from the so called "experts". Below is a summary of their analysis:

Predicted order of finish:
Villanova
Georgetown
Xavier
St. John's
Providence
Seton Hall
Butler
Marquette
Creighton
DePaul

Player of the Year - D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera
Defensive Player of the Year - Chris Obepka
Rookie of the Year - Isiah Whitehead

NCAA teams - Villanova, Georgetown & Xavier
NIT teams - St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence & Butler

Top Recruiting Classes - Georgetown, Seton Hall & Xavier (St. John's was number 10)
 
On a related note, Rothstein just tweeted this. I think he's right.

Jon Rothstein @JonRothstein · 47m
For the Big East to be nationally relevant next season, Georgetown has to be an NCAA team. Tough for the conference to thrive otherwise.
 
Why are people so high on Xavier? They lost their best player and point guard to the NBA, and two huge veteran starters in Philmore and Martin. Those were three of Xavier's top scorers. They have the awesome frosh at SF and Reynolds COULD be a beast, but both are unproven.

They won't have a better player than Roosevelt Jones or Kellen Dunham of Butler.
 
Well for starters they have had less than 21 wins only twice since 1997 . . .
 
Well for starters they have had less than 21 wins only twice since 1997 . . .
Click to expand...

That same logic led to everyone predicting Marquette to win the league last year. Butler could have made the same claim last season too and that didn't end so well. They made 11 NCAA tournaments since 1997 and went 17-11 in the tournament. Xavier has made 13 and has gone 15-13.

Butler returns two starters and two guys that played 25 and 20 minutes in a game that came within two points of sending Butler to its third Sweet 16 in four years. Xavier has one player from its Sweet 16 team three years ago (missed tourney two years ago), Davis, and he only played 11 mpg.

I think Xavier will be tough as always. They are a good program...not just a team. This is what I wrote about them last year: "They are a top 15 program nationally the last 15 years. Before last year, they won an incredible 5 straight A-10 regular season championships. The A-10 is no slouch...most years it is as good or better than the Pac12 or SEC, and the top half of that league can play with anyone. They have made 13 NCAA tournament appearances in the last 16 years. They have advanced in the tournament five times since 2007, four trips to the Sweet 16, and one of those trips ending in the Elite 8. The had another Elite 8 trip in 2004. They also sellout most home games." http://redmen.com/forum/4-redmentalk/42838-2015-athlon-preview/reply/124054?quote=1

That written, you usually can't graduate a 5th year senior, lose a three year starter to transfer, and lose your best player and starting PG to the NBA without expecting to take a step back. Butler lost three very similar players last year and fell very far in spite of the best recruiting class its ever had.
 
Well for starters they have had less than 21 wins only twice since 1997 . . .
Click to expand...

That same logic led to everyone predicting Marquette to win the league last year. Butler could have made the same claim last season too and that didn't end so well. They made 11 NCAA tournaments since 1997 and went 17-11 in the tournament. Xavier has made 13 and has gone 15-13.

Butler returns two starters and two guys that played 25 and 20 minutes in a game that came within two points of sending Butler to its third Sweet 16 in four years. Xavier has one player from its Sweet 16 team three years ago (missed tourney two years ago), Davis, and he only played 11 mpg.

I think Xavier will be tough as always. They are a good program...not just a team. This is what I wrote about them last year: "They are a top 15 program nationally the last 15 years. Before last year, they won an incredible 5 straight A-10 regular season championships. The A-10 is no slouch...most years it is as good or better than the Pac12 or SEC, and the top half of that league can play with anyone. They have made 13 NCAA tournament appearances in the last 16 years. They have advanced in the tournament five times since 2007, four trips to the Sweet 16, and one of those trips ending in the Elite 8. The had another Elite 8 trip in 2004. They also sellout most home games." http://redmen.com/forum/4-redmentalk/42838-2015-athlon-preview/reply/124054?quote=1

That written, you usually can't graduate a 5th year senior, lose a three year starter to transfer, and lose your best player and starting PG to the NBA without expecting to take a step back. Butler lost three very similar players last year and fell very far in spite of the best recruiting class its ever had.
Click to expand...

The consensus is not always right but actually they are much closer to right then wrong more times then not. Everyone got Marquette wrong but if you look at the bad teams (DePaul, Butler and SHU) as well as most of the others the consensus was on the money.

Xavier, SJU, Georgetown and Nova are the general consensus top 4 coming back and the 4 best chances of having NCAA teams.
 
Well for starters they have had less than 21 wins only twice since 1997 . . .
Click to expand...

That same logic led to everyone predicting Marquette to win the league last year. Butler could have made the same claim last season too and that didn't end so well. They made 11 NCAA tournaments since 1997 and went 17-11 in the tournament. Xavier has made 13 and has gone 15-13.

Butler returns two starters and two guys that played 25 and 20 minutes in a game that came within two points of sending Butler to its third Sweet 16 in four years. Xavier has one player from its Sweet 16 team three years ago (missed tourney two years ago), Davis, and he only played 11 mpg.

I think Xavier will be tough as always. They are a good program...not just a team. This is what I wrote about them last year: "They are a top 15 program nationally the last 15 years. Before last year, they won an incredible 5 straight A-10 regular season championships. The A-10 is no slouch...most years it is as good or better than the Pac12 or SEC, and the top half of that league can play with anyone. They have made 13 NCAA tournament appearances in the last 16 years. They have advanced in the tournament five times since 2007, four trips to the Sweet 16, and one of those trips ending in the Elite 8. The had another Elite 8 trip in 2004. They also sellout most home games." http://redmen.com/forum/4-redmentalk/42838-2015-athlon-preview/reply/124054?quote=1

That written, you usually can't graduate a 5th year senior, lose a three year starter to transfer, and lose your best player and starting PG to the NBA without expecting to take a step back. Butler lost three very similar players last year and fell very far in spite of the best recruiting class its ever had.
Click to expand...

The consensus is not always right but actually they are much closer to right then wrong more times then not. Everyone got Marquette wrong but if you look at the bad teams (DePaul, Butler and SHU) as well as most of the others the consensus was on the money.

Xavier, SJU, Georgetown and Nova are the general consensus top 4 coming back and the 4 best chances of having NCAA teams.
Click to expand...

Im with marillac. I just dont see it from xavier this year. I would be surprised if they got a top 4 seed in the conference tourney.
 
Well for starters they have had less than 21 wins only twice since 1997 . . .
Click to expand...

That same logic led to everyone predicting Marquette to win the league last year. Butler could have made the same claim last season too and that didn't end so well. They made 11 NCAA tournaments since 1997 and went 17-11 in the tournament. Xavier has made 13 and has gone 15-13.

Butler returns two starters and two guys that played 25 and 20 minutes in a game that came within two points of sending Butler to its third Sweet 16 in four years. Xavier has one player from its Sweet 16 team three years ago (missed tourney two years ago), Davis, and he only played 11 mpg.

I think Xavier will be tough as always. They are a good program...not just a team. This is what I wrote about them last year: "They are a top 15 program nationally the last 15 years. Before last year, they won an incredible 5 straight A-10 regular season championships. The A-10 is no slouch...most years it is as good or better than the Pac12 or SEC, and the top half of that league can play with anyone. They have made 13 NCAA tournament appearances in the last 16 years. They have advanced in the tournament five times since 2007, four trips to the Sweet 16, and one of those trips ending in the Elite 8. The had another Elite 8 trip in 2004. They also sellout most home games." http://redmen.com/forum/4-redmentalk/42838-2015-athlon-preview/reply/124054?quote=1

That written, you usually can't graduate a 5th year senior, lose a three year starter to transfer, and lose your best player and starting PG to the NBA without expecting to take a step back. Butler lost three very similar players last year and fell very far in spite of the best recruiting class its ever had.
Click to expand...

You know why Xavier wins 20+ every year and is in contention every year. They hire great freaking coaches, lose them to bigger programs and replace them with great freaking coaches.

To compliment the coaching they['ve also got a decent backcourt with Dee Davis, Myles Davis, the top 100 Larry Austin and the Indy transfer Abell. Up front we know how good Stainbrook is, and how good Reynolds could be and then they've got Blueitt. It's a solid team that'll be in every game and teams like that with good coaches tend to achieve.
 
PS Just read a story that said Reynolds was a beast on their Brazil trip averaging a double/double in under 20 mins per game. He's probably the key.
 
Well for starters they have had less than 21 wins only twice since 1997 . . .
Click to expand...

That same logic led to everyone predicting Marquette to win the league last year. Butler could have made the same claim last season too and that didn't end so well. They made 11 NCAA tournaments since 1997 and went 17-11 in the tournament. Xavier has made 13 and has gone 15-13.

Butler returns two starters and two guys that played 25 and 20 minutes in a game that came within two points of sending Butler to its third Sweet 16 in four years. Xavier has one player from its Sweet 16 team three years ago (missed tourney two years ago), Davis, and he only played 11 mpg.

I think Xavier will be tough as always. They are a good program...not just a team. This is what I wrote about them last year: "They are a top 15 program nationally the last 15 years. Before last year, they won an incredible 5 straight A-10 regular season championships. The A-10 is no slouch...most years it is as good or better than the Pac12 or SEC, and the top half of that league can play with anyone. They have made 13 NCAA tournament appearances in the last 16 years. They have advanced in the tournament five times since 2007, four trips to the Sweet 16, and one of those trips ending in the Elite 8. The had another Elite 8 trip in 2004. They also sellout most home games." http://redmen.com/forum/4-redmentalk/42838-2015-athlon-preview/reply/124054?quote=1

That written, you usually can't graduate a 5th year senior, lose a three year starter to transfer, and lose your best player and starting PG to the NBA without expecting to take a step back. Butler lost three very similar players last year and fell very far in spite of the best recruiting class its ever had.
Click to expand...

You know why Xavier wins 20+ every year and is in contention every year. They hire great freaking coaches, lose them to bigger programs and replace them with great freaking coaches.

To compliment the coaching they['ve also got a decent backcourt with Dee Davis, Myles Davis, the top 100 Larry Austin and the Indy transfer Abell. Up front we know how good Stainbrook is, and how good Reynolds could be and then they've got Blueitt. It's a solid team that'll be in every game and teams like that with good coaches tend to achieve.
Click to expand...

You don't have to convince me on Xavier. I posted about them glowingly since they were added and cautioned people from looking past them. I also posted about Reynolds potential before he had his blowup game against us (only one of the year). I love the way they redshirt guys (like Reynolds). That written, they loose too much. How is this team better than the team two years ago that went 17-14? That team had Philmore, Martin, Davis, Semaj Christon, and all A-10 Travis Taylor (12 points, 9 boards per game) plus 6'10 senior Jeff Robinson (6.8, 4.8 boards).

I think Reynolds has NBA potential, but this Xavier team will not be a top three finisher and will, at best, be fighting for the bubble probably somewhere 4-6.
 
I'll only add that their non conference schedule is pretty weak too so while their SOS will suffer their W/L should be pretty good. The best teams they will play are Princeton, Washington, Murray State, Mizzou, Alabama, Cincy and Auburn. Lots of winnable games there plus their 5 cupcakes. But I agree with you. They'll be in that pack from 3-7 somewhere.
 
I forgot to include the section from the magazine that so many of us enjoy talking about, the "Coaches on the Hot Seat" section. The following was written about certain Big East coaches:

Kevin Willard - Willard appeared to have SHU on the right track after going 7-11 and 8-10 in the Big East his first 2 seasons. The Pirates have since bottomed out to 9-27 in league play the last 2 years. Willard has recruited well of late, but SHU must start winning some games.

Oliver Purnell - Purnell has had a unique career in college basketball., coaching at five spots without an NCAA Tournament win. Yet each of his first four staops - Radford, ODU, Dayton & Clemson, were successful. The DePaul job may be a program he can't shepherd into the postseason. The Blue Demons are 9-57 in the Big East under his watch, a mark that didn't improve in the newer (and weaker) iteration of the league in 2014.

Steve Lavin - The results have flattened out since the Red Storm reached the NCAA in his first season. He is 18-18 in the Big East in the 2 seasons since returning from prostate cancer treatment. The Red Storm have the roster to make a run at the NCAAs in his 5th season. If not, Lavin may be in jeopardy.
 
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