NCAA Tournament seeding

paultzman said:
I much prefer Arkansas over Kansas. Self can coach, while Cal is past his expiration date. Coaching counts obviously, so I think Rick outclasses Cal, but Self is very tough despite disappointing season.

Guards dominate most Dance games and I also feel Fland will be rusty for Ark. As an aside, I think our crafty guards ((Kadary especially) can help down low w Kansas big if we meet them & get in his head.

Major concern overall is how liberal the refs will be w our physical defense. It is not the BE where officials have allowed us latitude.
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Arkansas without Theiro is cooked. If they somehow beat KU without him and he's unavailable, that could be a huge thumping.
 
The trepidation I felt was they are big name schools. But we better than both of them. But you know what I say and pardon the profanity...
 

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Joedib said:
Ok, looking ahead, who wins the Kansas/Arkansas game? Fland is back but has not played for a few months. I have not watced either team much this year.
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I predict Kansas, but game is close. The Arkansas big man is a big wild card for them. He is either a no show or plays a huge game, with almost no in between.
 
carmineabbatiello said:
And the Acc was almost appropriately punished for their weak season setting aside the NC debacle they got 4 bids from 18 teams.

14 of 16 to the favored big $$ football conference is a disgrace.
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I hate the SEC and I think them (+ Big 10) will bring the end of college sports just as much as some of these new rules.

I think those schools are better than other conference's bubble teams (e.g. Xavier). It won't happen, but I hope there is some reform to how OOC scheduling works so computers aren't determining strength of conference based on November performance. Give the fans a fun MTE in January or early Feb.

ACC/Big East can both bolster their conferences this year with the correct coaching hires.
 
thakid said:
I’d love to dig up lawmanfan and others’ posts about Maryland and Steve Francis in 1999 before we absolutely decimated them in the sweet 16. This team has that teams killer instinct, a far better coach and perhaps the depth and focus to do what that team couldn’t.
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mjmaherjr said:
That receipt is so old I think the moths ate it
SJU61982 said:
I wasn't worried. Their big center, Ekezie, was out for the tournament. Without him, I felt they didn't have much else beyond Francis, and I was confident that Barkley would play him at least close to a standstill.

Now, I feared Ohio St. much more than #1 seed Auburn in the regional final. They had two great guards, Penn and Redd, so that neutralized our great backcourt. Throw in the shot blocker Johnson, and it was going to be a Jump shooting game. That team could make jumpers, and 3 pointers, but it wasn't at the heart of what we did.

I thought we would find a way, but I knew it would be a tough one. We would have beaten Auburn by double-digits, IMO.
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1982 has it exactly right. Not only was I not worried about Maryland, I was sure we were beating Ohio State. That 99/2000 team was legit.

This team has been an amazing ride and a great story. But it's a completely different animal than 99/00. In a way it is more rewarding to get to the same place (BE Title) with this team than that one and might be more rewarding to get to the same place in the NCAA T as well. This team is like the little engine that could, you gotta love that.
 
If anyone wants a loophole to get STJ into the Final Four without having to beat Florida, just have them getting upset by Maryland ;)
 
carmineabbatiello said:
And the Acc was almost appropriately punished for their weak season setting aside the NC debacle they got only 4 bids from 18 teams.

14 of 16 to the favored big $$ football conference is a disgrace.
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Let's see how they do in the tournament. To my eye the SEC absolutely deserved those bids, even the teams that finished lower in the conference. The talent and coaching on those teams is just that good compared to most of the rest of the country.
 
lawmanfan said:
Let's see how they do in the tournament. To my eye the SEC absolutely deserved those bids, even the teams that finished lower in the conference. The talent and coaching on those teams is just that good compared to most of the rest of the country.
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I'd love to hate the SEC's teams this year, but who are we all asking for to make it instead? West Virginia went 10-10 in an okay Big 12 and haven't had a meaningful win in two months. Indiana also 10-10 in Big 10, Ohio State 9-11. Don't think Boise State or any A-10 schools are better. Neither of these teams meet the eye test. I wouldn't argue at all if any of these teams were over UNC and Texas and Oklahoma.

Very soft bubble.
 
carmineabbatiello said:
How could they not do well? There's 14 of them with amazing seeding.
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Heads you win, tails I lose?
They will win because they're good.
They're in because they're better than Wake, Pitt, Nova ... I mean who else do you think deserves to be in over one of those teams. Indiana?
 
thanks to chatGPT, I give you pitinos second round record analysis as a favorite:

Determining Rick Pitino’s exact second-round record as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament requires analyzing each of his tournament appearances, focusing on instances where his team was seeded higher than their opponent in the Round of 32. Here’s a breakdown:

Providence College (1985–1987):


• 1987: As a No. 6 seed, Providence defeated No. 11 seed UAB in the first round and then faced No. 3 seed Alabama in the second round. Providence won this game, but they were the lower seed, thus not the favorite.





University of Kentucky (1989–1997):


• 1992: No. 2 seed Kentucky defeated No. 15 seed Old Dominion in the first round and then faced No. 10 seed Iowa State in the second round, winning as the higher seed (favorite).


• 1993: No. 1 seed Kentucky defeated No. 16 seed Rider and then won against No. 9 seed Utah in the second round as the favorite.


• 1994: No. 3 seed Kentucky defeated No. 14 seed Tennessee State but lost to No. 6 seed Marquette in the second round, where they were the favorite.


• 1995: No. 1 seed Kentucky won against No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s and then defeated No. 9 seed Tulane in the second round as the favorite.


• 1996: No. 1 seed Kentucky defeated No. 16 seed San Jose State and then won against No. 9 seed Virginia Tech in the second round as the favorite.


• 1997: No. 1 seed Kentucky defeated No. 16 seed Montana and then won against No. 9 seed Iowa in the second round as the favorite.


University of Louisville (2001–2017):


• 2003: No. 4 seed Louisville defeated No. 13 seed Austin Peay but lost to No. 5 seed Butler in the second round, where they were the favorite.


• 2005: No. 4 seed Louisville defeated No. 13 seed Louisiana-Lafayette and then won against No. 5 seed Georgia Tech in the second round as the favorite.


• 2008: No. 3 seed Louisville defeated No. 14 seed Boise State and then won against No. 6 seed Oklahoma in the second round as the favorite.


• 2009: No. 1 seed Louisville defeated No. 16 seed Morehead State and then won against No. 9 seed Siena in the second round as the favorite.


• 2012: No. 4 seed Louisville defeated No. 13 seed Davidson and then won against No. 5 seed New Mexico in the second round as the favorite.


• 2013: No. 1 seed Louisville defeated No. 16 seed North Carolina A&T and then won against No. 8 seed Colorado State in the second round as the favorite.


• 2014: No. 4 seed Louisville defeated No. 13 seed Manhattan and then won against No. 5 seed Saint Louis in the second round as the favorite.


• 2015: No. 4 seed Louisville defeated No. 13 seed UC Irvine and then won against No. 5 seed Northern Iowa in the second round as the favorite.


• 2017: No. 2 seed Louisville defeated No. 15 seed Jacksonville State but lost to No. 7 seed Michigan in the second round, where they were the favorite.





Iona College (2020–2023):


• 2021: No. 15 seed Iona lost to No. 2 seed Alabama in the first round.


• 2023: No. 13 seed Iona lost to No. 4 seed UConn in the first round.





St. John’s University (2023–Present):


• 2025: As a No. 2 seed, St. John’s is scheduled to face No. 15 seed Omaha in the first round. If they advance, they will likely be the favorite in the second round.





Summary of Second-Round Games as a Favorite:


• Wins: 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 (12 wins)


• Losses: 1994, 2003, 2017 (3 losses)





Overall Second-Round Record as a Favorite: 12-3


Therefore, Rick Pitino’s record in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, when his team was the higher seed and thus the favorite, stands at 12 wins and 3 losses.
 

NCAA Tournament Game Predictor 2025 - PoolGenius

poolgenius.teamrankings.com poolgenius.teamrankings.com

Fun tool.

Kansas

Power Rankings​

SJUStatKU
#8Season Performance#32
#55Strength of Schedule#16
#12Away Games#50
#11Recent Games#46
#29Non-Conference Games#9

Offensive Stats​

Values | Ranks
SJUStatKU
#106Points/Possession#115
#244Effective FG %#78
#36Turnover %#142
#13Off Rebound %#174
#269FTA per FGA#355

Defensive Stats​

Values | Ranks
SJUStatKU
#2Opp Points/Possession#30
#19Opp Effective FG %#15
#12Opp Turnover %#285
#108Opp Off Rebound %#71
#113Opp FTA per FGA#54
 
Arkansas

Power Rankings​

SJUStatARK
#8Season Performance#28
#55Strength of Schedule#18
#12Away Games#28
#11Recent Games#24
#29Non-Conference Games#39

Offensive Stats​

Values | Ranks
SJUStatARK
#106Points/Possession#123
#244Effective FG %#88
#36Turnover %#153
#13Off Rebound %#258
#269FTA per FGA#107

Defensive Stats​

Values | Ranks
SJUStatARK
#2Opp Points/Possession#60
#19Opp Effective FG %#60
#12Opp Turnover %#148
#108Opp Off Rebound %#118
#113Opp FTA per FGA#87
 
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